LSU vs. Alabama: College Football Picks for Week 10
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
The Odds
BetOnline opened Alabama as 27.5-point favorites. Within minutes, the line moved to 28.
A few hours later, Alabama became 28.5-point favorites, which is the current number.
This is a number that the Crimson Tide have been able to cover against Power 5 squads at home.
While they won at Florida by two and lost at Texas A&M, they beat Miami by 31 at a neutral site. They only won by enough points at Mississippi State. Coming off their only loss of the season, they beat the Bulldogs by 40.
Away crowds have generally given Alabama a great deal of trouble. But it is a different story at home.
In front of the Bama faithful, the Tide beat Ole Miss by 21 and beat Tennessee by 28.
Needless to say, LSU is a much softer test than Ole Miss. The Tiger defense is porous, as I will explain, and the offense doesn't have a Heisman candidate at quarterback or the same consistent and consistently explosive ground game.
Alabama only beat Tennessee by 28 because of a very slow start that included a 14-7 Volunteer lead.
In order to cover the big number against LSU, the Tide likely need to resume their typical first-half dominance, which in recent years has made the Bama first-half ATS almost an auto-play.
LSU's Pass Defense
LSU's pass defense represents a curious case. Its secondary is known for recruiting highly-ranked players. But its pass defense is anything but highly ranked.
Currently, the Tigers rank 100th nationally in limiting opposing passing yards per game.
This statistic is concerning given the respect to which the Tiger secondary has been untested by strong competition since UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for nearly a season-high 260 passing yards on 16 attempts in LSU's season-opening 38-27 defeat.
Since then, LSU has faced quarterback after quarterback who is historically more known for his abilities as a scrambler or as a runner, guys like Auburn's Bo Nix, Kentucky's Will Levis, and so forth.
While Ole Miss' Matt Corral didn't produce great numbers, he didn't need to. He was still extremely efficient as the Rebels ran the rock 50 times.
Bryce Young and Company
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young will represent the LSU pass defense's toughest test so far.
Young averages over 300 yards and three passing touchdowns per game while he's thrown three interceptions all year.
He benefits from throwing the ball to leading receiver Jameson Williams, whose top-level speed makes him a big-play threat. His longest reception this season has gone for 94 yards, giving him the quick-scoring ability that is useful to a team trying to cover a large spread.
Bama Ground Game vs. LSU Run Defense
The Tiger run defense has struggled against the most mediocre ground games.
For example, pass-first Mississippi State, which ranks last nationally in averaging 54.4 rushing yards per game, ran for 115 yards on 4.4 YPC against the Tigers.
Teams with more potent rushing attacks, like Florida and Kentucky, were able to score 42 points on LSU with one-dimensional offenses that prioritized running the ball.
Alabama scoring well over 40 points does not seem like a tough ask to me with its Heisman candidate at quarterback and Brian Robinson with his five YPC at running back.
LSU Offense vs. Alabama Defense
For its rush attack, the Tigers rely primarily on Tyrion Davis-Price.
Davis-Price has exceeded 3.9 YPC against two FBS schools, Florida and Kentucky.
While his numbers against Kentucky look nice given Kentucky's strong run defense stats, he pretty much only started running well when the game was out of reach -- Kentucky started with a 21-0 lead that extended into the third quarter and the Wildcats cruised to a 42-21 victory.
Florida, meanwhile, has been notorious for missing tackles.
Alabama, however, owns the seventh-best run defense nationally.
Like the team as a whole, the Tide run defense has suffered hiccups on the road -- at Florida for example. But Bama is allowing an absurd 74.7 rush yards per game at home, shutting down top-level rushing attacks like Ole Miss' in the process.
LSU's lack of running game will place too heavy a burden on quarterback Max Johnson. The Tigers are 0-2 ATS against SEC opponents when he attempts 30 or more passes.
The Verdict
Alabama's two-dimensional offense will exploit LSU's porous defense and outpace a necessarily pass-reliant Tiger offense for a blowout win.
Best Bet: Crimson Tide -28.5 at -110 with BetOnline
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
The Odds
BetOnline opened Alabama as 27.5-point favorites. Within minutes, the line moved to 28.
A few hours later, Alabama became 28.5-point favorites, which is the current number.
This is a number that the Crimson Tide have been able to cover against Power 5 squads at home.
While they won at Florida by two and lost at Texas A&M, they beat Miami by 31 at a neutral site. They only won by enough points at Mississippi State. Coming off their only loss of the season, they beat the Bulldogs by 40.
Away crowds have generally given Alabama a great deal of trouble. But it is a different story at home.
In front of the Bama faithful, the Tide beat Ole Miss by 21 and beat Tennessee by 28.
Needless to say, LSU is a much softer test than Ole Miss. The Tiger defense is porous, as I will explain, and the offense doesn't have a Heisman candidate at quarterback or the same consistent and consistently explosive ground game.
Alabama only beat Tennessee by 28 because of a very slow start that included a 14-7 Volunteer lead.
In order to cover the big number against LSU, the Tide likely need to resume their typical first-half dominance, which in recent years has made the Bama first-half ATS almost an auto-play.
LSU's Pass Defense
LSU's pass defense represents a curious case. Its secondary is known for recruiting highly-ranked players. But its pass defense is anything but highly ranked.
Currently, the Tigers rank 100th nationally in limiting opposing passing yards per game.
This statistic is concerning given the respect to which the Tiger secondary has been untested by strong competition since UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for nearly a season-high 260 passing yards on 16 attempts in LSU's season-opening 38-27 defeat.
Since then, LSU has faced quarterback after quarterback who is historically more known for his abilities as a scrambler or as a runner, guys like Auburn's Bo Nix, Kentucky's Will Levis, and so forth.
While Ole Miss' Matt Corral didn't produce great numbers, he didn't need to. He was still extremely efficient as the Rebels ran the rock 50 times.
Bryce Young and Company
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young will represent the LSU pass defense's toughest test so far.
Young averages over 300 yards and three passing touchdowns per game while he's thrown three interceptions all year.
He benefits from throwing the ball to leading receiver Jameson Williams, whose top-level speed makes him a big-play threat. His longest reception this season has gone for 94 yards, giving him the quick-scoring ability that is useful to a team trying to cover a large spread.
Bama Ground Game vs. LSU Run Defense
The Tiger run defense has struggled against the most mediocre ground games.
For example, pass-first Mississippi State, which ranks last nationally in averaging 54.4 rushing yards per game, ran for 115 yards on 4.4 YPC against the Tigers.
Teams with more potent rushing attacks, like Florida and Kentucky, were able to score 42 points on LSU with one-dimensional offenses that prioritized running the ball.
Alabama scoring well over 40 points does not seem like a tough ask to me with its Heisman candidate at quarterback and Brian Robinson with his five YPC at running back.
LSU Offense vs. Alabama Defense
For its rush attack, the Tigers rely primarily on Tyrion Davis-Price.
Davis-Price has exceeded 3.9 YPC against two FBS schools, Florida and Kentucky.
While his numbers against Kentucky look nice given Kentucky's strong run defense stats, he pretty much only started running well when the game was out of reach -- Kentucky started with a 21-0 lead that extended into the third quarter and the Wildcats cruised to a 42-21 victory.
Florida, meanwhile, has been notorious for missing tackles.
Alabama, however, owns the seventh-best run defense nationally.
Like the team as a whole, the Tide run defense has suffered hiccups on the road -- at Florida for example. But Bama is allowing an absurd 74.7 rush yards per game at home, shutting down top-level rushing attacks like Ole Miss' in the process.
LSU's lack of running game will place too heavy a burden on quarterback Max Johnson. The Tigers are 0-2 ATS against SEC opponents when he attempts 30 or more passes.
The Verdict
Alabama's two-dimensional offense will exploit LSU's porous defense and outpace a necessarily pass-reliant Tiger offense for a blowout win.
Best Bet: Crimson Tide -28.5 at -110 with BetOnline
