NCAA Football Week 15 Parlay Plays for Saturday
LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Balanced Offense?
Especially due to the injury of Myles Brennan, LSU has had quarterback problems which will not go away.
LSU has given two other quarterbacks playing time.
One is TJ Finley, who suffers from a 118.2 passer rating while completing less than 60 percent of his pass attempts and throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Max Johnson, though, is barely better in terms of passer rating.
Both quarterbacks miss former star wide receiver Terrace Marshall who opted out of the rest of the season. He still has more than twice as many receiving yards as any other Tiger wide receiver.
In order to help out its quarterback, LSU will want to run the ball. A balanced offense is a better offense because it is able to mix up play-calling and keep the defense guessing.
But generally, LSU is not good about attacking opponents in this way — that is, on the ground. The Tigers currently rank 113th nationally in rushing yards per game.
LSU Offense vs. Florida Defense
Since Brennan’s injury, the Tigers have scored just under 12 points per game in their losses. In their victories, they scored as many as 52 points against the Gamecocks.
The difference between both extremes has been the effectivity of LSU’s ground game. In that 52-point effort, the Tigers ran extremely well.
I like Florida’s defense because, on top of the fact that the Tigers usually struggle running the ball, Florida has improved massively in run defense.
A key to the Gators’ improvement in this area has been the return of Kyree Campbell to the defensive line.
Campbell brings a strong individual presence to the defensive line. Perhaps more importantly, his return has allowed the Gators to reposition defenders in order to make them more effective.
Because of these personnel and positional changes, Florida now ranks 44th nationally in run defense. Its opposing rushing average is also down, drastically, in its last three games.
Florida Offense vs. LSU Defense
Defensively, the Tigers have been porous against the pass throughout the season.
They repeatedly allow big plays due to individual cornerbacks getting burned, due to missed assignments and other lapses in coverage, and so forth.
Right now, they rank 128th nationally in pass defense as measured by opposing pass yards per game.
This defensive weakness makes LSU a salivating match-up for a Gator offense that owns the 12th-highest pass play percentage in the nation.
When we back a large favorite, we want that favorite to be able to score easily.
Florida will be able to score easily with its quarterback, Kyle Trask, who is a legitimate Heisman candidate.
Trask repeatedly accrues multiple passing touchdowns per game.
While Trask still found great success without him, Trask does benefit from the health of tight end Kyle Pitts, who is his favorite target.
Last year against LSU, coach Dan Mullen lined Pitts up on different places in order to maximize Pitts’ match-up advantages.
In last year’s game, Pitts had his highest receiving total of the season — 108 receiving yards — and he can exceed that total on Saturday.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
Michigan State Pass Offense vs. Penn State Pass Defense
I do not think that the Spartans can score much against a strongly improved Nittany Lion pass defense.
During Penn State’s ongoing two-game winning streak, it held Michigan upstart quarterback Cade McNamara to 12-of-25 passing and 91 passing yards.
Then, PSU limited Rutgers quarterback Noah Vedral to one of his worst performances of the season. Against PSU, he went 17 of 30 for 113 yards and a touchdown.
The Nittany Lion secondary distinguishes itself with strong outside cornerbacks, which feature Joey Porter, the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Week.
In turn, Michigan State will field an inefficient — as measured by completion percentage — and interception-prone option at quarterback, whoever that may turn out to be.
Michigan State’s Defense vs. Penn State Offense
In terms of keeping this game ‘under’ the total posted by College Football Oddsmakers, the margin of error is big for Michigan State’s defense.
Michigan State has allowed over 24 points on three separate occasions. On one occasion, it turned the ball over an absurd seven times, thus setting up the opponent (Rutgers) repeatedly with good field position.
Then, the Spartans gave up 49 in an obvious let-down scenario against Iowa. This game came after their big victory over rival Michigan.
Lastly, the Spartans gave up 52 points to Ohio State’s incomparably high-level offense.
How Could An Over Happen?
So, an “over” would require an unusually strong performance from the Sparty offense, which is unforeseeable against Penn State’s high-ranked pass defense and which is also unforeseeable given the fact that Michigan State owns one of the nation’s least productive rush attacks as measured by rushing yards per game.
I do like Penn State’s offense enough for it to cover the spread. After all, it won’t need to score much.
But given the number of injuries to Penn State’s starting running backs and to top target Pat Freiermuth, it seems fair to cap the Penn State scoring ceiling at around 30 points. So that we see like a 31-7 kind of game.
Quarterback Sean Clifford is not a high-yardage passer. He will run for first downs and he will find targets like leading receiver Jahan Dotson.
But Clifford would need to explode against a Spartan secondary led by guys like interception king Shakur Brown who is a ball hawk with his great reaction skills.
Best Bet: Parlay Gators -23 at -110 & Michigan State/Penn State Under 47 at -110 at +260 Odds With BetOnline
LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Balanced Offense?
Especially due to the injury of Myles Brennan, LSU has had quarterback problems which will not go away.
LSU has given two other quarterbacks playing time.
One is TJ Finley, who suffers from a 118.2 passer rating while completing less than 60 percent of his pass attempts and throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Max Johnson, though, is barely better in terms of passer rating.
Both quarterbacks miss former star wide receiver Terrace Marshall who opted out of the rest of the season. He still has more than twice as many receiving yards as any other Tiger wide receiver.
In order to help out its quarterback, LSU will want to run the ball. A balanced offense is a better offense because it is able to mix up play-calling and keep the defense guessing.
But generally, LSU is not good about attacking opponents in this way — that is, on the ground. The Tigers currently rank 113th nationally in rushing yards per game.
LSU Offense vs. Florida Defense
Since Brennan’s injury, the Tigers have scored just under 12 points per game in their losses. In their victories, they scored as many as 52 points against the Gamecocks.
The difference between both extremes has been the effectivity of LSU’s ground game. In that 52-point effort, the Tigers ran extremely well.
I like Florida’s defense because, on top of the fact that the Tigers usually struggle running the ball, Florida has improved massively in run defense.
A key to the Gators’ improvement in this area has been the return of Kyree Campbell to the defensive line.
Campbell brings a strong individual presence to the defensive line. Perhaps more importantly, his return has allowed the Gators to reposition defenders in order to make them more effective.
Because of these personnel and positional changes, Florida now ranks 44th nationally in run defense. Its opposing rushing average is also down, drastically, in its last three games.
Florida Offense vs. LSU Defense
Defensively, the Tigers have been porous against the pass throughout the season.
They repeatedly allow big plays due to individual cornerbacks getting burned, due to missed assignments and other lapses in coverage, and so forth.
Right now, they rank 128th nationally in pass defense as measured by opposing pass yards per game.
This defensive weakness makes LSU a salivating match-up for a Gator offense that owns the 12th-highest pass play percentage in the nation.
When we back a large favorite, we want that favorite to be able to score easily.
Florida will be able to score easily with its quarterback, Kyle Trask, who is a legitimate Heisman candidate.
Trask repeatedly accrues multiple passing touchdowns per game.
While Trask still found great success without him, Trask does benefit from the health of tight end Kyle Pitts, who is his favorite target.
Last year against LSU, coach Dan Mullen lined Pitts up on different places in order to maximize Pitts’ match-up advantages.
In last year’s game, Pitts had his highest receiving total of the season — 108 receiving yards — and he can exceed that total on Saturday.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
Michigan State Pass Offense vs. Penn State Pass Defense
I do not think that the Spartans can score much against a strongly improved Nittany Lion pass defense.
During Penn State’s ongoing two-game winning streak, it held Michigan upstart quarterback Cade McNamara to 12-of-25 passing and 91 passing yards.
Then, PSU limited Rutgers quarterback Noah Vedral to one of his worst performances of the season. Against PSU, he went 17 of 30 for 113 yards and a touchdown.
The Nittany Lion secondary distinguishes itself with strong outside cornerbacks, which feature Joey Porter, the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Week.
In turn, Michigan State will field an inefficient — as measured by completion percentage — and interception-prone option at quarterback, whoever that may turn out to be.
Michigan State’s Defense vs. Penn State Offense
In terms of keeping this game ‘under’ the total posted by College Football Oddsmakers, the margin of error is big for Michigan State’s defense.
Michigan State has allowed over 24 points on three separate occasions. On one occasion, it turned the ball over an absurd seven times, thus setting up the opponent (Rutgers) repeatedly with good field position.
Then, the Spartans gave up 49 in an obvious let-down scenario against Iowa. This game came after their big victory over rival Michigan.
Lastly, the Spartans gave up 52 points to Ohio State’s incomparably high-level offense.
How Could An Over Happen?
So, an “over” would require an unusually strong performance from the Sparty offense, which is unforeseeable against Penn State’s high-ranked pass defense and which is also unforeseeable given the fact that Michigan State owns one of the nation’s least productive rush attacks as measured by rushing yards per game.
I do like Penn State’s offense enough for it to cover the spread. After all, it won’t need to score much.
But given the number of injuries to Penn State’s starting running backs and to top target Pat Freiermuth, it seems fair to cap the Penn State scoring ceiling at around 30 points. So that we see like a 31-7 kind of game.
Quarterback Sean Clifford is not a high-yardage passer. He will run for first downs and he will find targets like leading receiver Jahan Dotson.
But Clifford would need to explode against a Spartan secondary led by guys like interception king Shakur Brown who is a ball hawk with his great reaction skills.
Best Bet: Parlay Gators -23 at -110 & Michigan State/Penn State Under 47 at -110 at +260 Odds With BetOnline
