Virginia vs. Louisville NCAAF Week 11 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network) at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
Louisville Defense vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
A superficial glance at the stat sheet may yield the impression that Louisville’s pass defense is potent.
But the fact is that Louisville has benefitted from facing a number of weak pass attacks that the ACC has to offer.
For example, the Cardinals got to face Florida State and Georgia Tech. Both teams rank outside the top 80 nationally in pass offense as measured by passing yards per game.
A closer look at their schedule reveals a tendency to struggle not just against competent pass attacks but most especially against mobile quarterbacks.
In ACC play, the Cardinals dealt with two such quarterbacks, Virginia Tech’s Hendon Hooker and Miami’s D’Eriq King.
King helped his Hurricanes accumulate 47 points as he passed for 325 yards and three touchdowns. His 184 passer rating was his second-highest this season.
Hooker quite easily accumulated his highest passer rating of the season — 253 — against these Cardinals. He helped Virginia Tech score 42 points against them.
Brennan Armstrong
Virginia’s mobile quarterback, who regularly amasses 200+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards per game, will plague Louisville just like King and Hooker.
Armstrong was former dual-threat quarterback Bryce Perkins’ understudy. In his two years as Virginia’s starter, Perkins showcased the same vague skill set — the same mix of running and passing ability — as Armstrong. So Virginia’s offense was always equipped to accommodate Armstrong’s skill set.
UVA will execute designed run plays like quarterback draws for Armstrong. Armstrong is a skilled runner who patiently allows his blockers to engage defenders, will find open lanes, and flexes nice speed.
His speed helps him be elusive and his elusiveness causes problems for incoming defenders. It is relatively difficult to blitz Armstrong with success because a blitz will not prevent Armstrong from reaching the second level of the defense where the blitzing defender has vacated his space.
He also has the arm strength and deep ball accuracy to drop dimes downfield and towards the sidelines while standing in the pocket. He’s also comfortable with executing shorter passes and with passing over the middle of the field where he can hit pass-catchers in stride.
Louisville Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Louisville’s often porous defense — it ranks 63rd nationally in total defense despite facing so many lackluster offenses like Georgia Tech and Florida State — breeds higher-scoring games.
In three games, the Cardinals failed to score 30 points. Those three games were against Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech.
The common thread in those games was an inability to showcase balance on offense.
Against Virginia, the Cardinals will struggle in particular to run the ball.
Like the Irish and Panthers, UVA ranks top-40 nationally in run defense.
The Cavalier run defense merits optimism especially for its performance against top-level ground games.
UVA held its own against Clemson’s Travis Etienne, arguably the nation’s best running back.
Against North Carolina and it’s nationally 13th-ranked ground game, Virginia’s run defense likewise thrived.
In that game, the Tar Heels managed less than half of its average rushing total per game and half of its average YPC.
Run defense will be crucial for Virginia because it wants to force Louisville to rely heavily on quarterback Malik Cunningham’s passing.
Time and time again, Louisville shows that it cannot keep pace with opponents while Cunningham is attempting 30+ passes.
Virginia Front Seven
Run defense is the strength of Virginia’s defense. Coming into the season, its depth on the defensive line was a known quality.
Jowon Briggs is a crucial cog as UVA’s nose tackle in its 3-4 defense.
A former blue-chip recruit, Briggs demands excessive attention from offensive linemen due to his overpowering strength.
The force that he adds in the interior makes life easier for Virginia’s bevy of veteran linebackers.
One key linebacker is Charles Snowden, whose slow start to the season was both perplexing and puzzling.
But his recent selection as ACC Player of the Week allays any concern.
So he fits in well, ability-wise, in a linebacking corps with the likes of former All-ACC selection Zane Zandier
The Verdict
Expect the Hoos to be the only team that has an easy time scoring.
Behind Armstrong and with its strong front seven, UVA will outpace a weakly one-dimensional Cardinal offense.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -3.5 (-108) with Heritage
Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network) at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
Louisville Defense vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
A superficial glance at the stat sheet may yield the impression that Louisville’s pass defense is potent.
But the fact is that Louisville has benefitted from facing a number of weak pass attacks that the ACC has to offer.
For example, the Cardinals got to face Florida State and Georgia Tech. Both teams rank outside the top 80 nationally in pass offense as measured by passing yards per game.
A closer look at their schedule reveals a tendency to struggle not just against competent pass attacks but most especially against mobile quarterbacks.
In ACC play, the Cardinals dealt with two such quarterbacks, Virginia Tech’s Hendon Hooker and Miami’s D’Eriq King.
King helped his Hurricanes accumulate 47 points as he passed for 325 yards and three touchdowns. His 184 passer rating was his second-highest this season.
Hooker quite easily accumulated his highest passer rating of the season — 253 — against these Cardinals. He helped Virginia Tech score 42 points against them.
Brennan Armstrong
Virginia’s mobile quarterback, who regularly amasses 200+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards per game, will plague Louisville just like King and Hooker.
Armstrong was former dual-threat quarterback Bryce Perkins’ understudy. In his two years as Virginia’s starter, Perkins showcased the same vague skill set — the same mix of running and passing ability — as Armstrong. So Virginia’s offense was always equipped to accommodate Armstrong’s skill set.
UVA will execute designed run plays like quarterback draws for Armstrong. Armstrong is a skilled runner who patiently allows his blockers to engage defenders, will find open lanes, and flexes nice speed.
His speed helps him be elusive and his elusiveness causes problems for incoming defenders. It is relatively difficult to blitz Armstrong with success because a blitz will not prevent Armstrong from reaching the second level of the defense where the blitzing defender has vacated his space.
He also has the arm strength and deep ball accuracy to drop dimes downfield and towards the sidelines while standing in the pocket. He’s also comfortable with executing shorter passes and with passing over the middle of the field where he can hit pass-catchers in stride.
Louisville Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Louisville’s often porous defense — it ranks 63rd nationally in total defense despite facing so many lackluster offenses like Georgia Tech and Florida State — breeds higher-scoring games.
In three games, the Cardinals failed to score 30 points. Those three games were against Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech.
The common thread in those games was an inability to showcase balance on offense.
Against Virginia, the Cardinals will struggle in particular to run the ball.
Like the Irish and Panthers, UVA ranks top-40 nationally in run defense.
The Cavalier run defense merits optimism especially for its performance against top-level ground games.
UVA held its own against Clemson’s Travis Etienne, arguably the nation’s best running back.
Against North Carolina and it’s nationally 13th-ranked ground game, Virginia’s run defense likewise thrived.
In that game, the Tar Heels managed less than half of its average rushing total per game and half of its average YPC.
Run defense will be crucial for Virginia because it wants to force Louisville to rely heavily on quarterback Malik Cunningham’s passing.
Time and time again, Louisville shows that it cannot keep pace with opponents while Cunningham is attempting 30+ passes.
Virginia Front Seven
Run defense is the strength of Virginia’s defense. Coming into the season, its depth on the defensive line was a known quality.
Jowon Briggs is a crucial cog as UVA’s nose tackle in its 3-4 defense.
A former blue-chip recruit, Briggs demands excessive attention from offensive linemen due to his overpowering strength.
The force that he adds in the interior makes life easier for Virginia’s bevy of veteran linebackers.
One key linebacker is Charles Snowden, whose slow start to the season was both perplexing and puzzling.
But his recent selection as ACC Player of the Week allays any concern.
So he fits in well, ability-wise, in a linebacking corps with the likes of former All-ACC selection Zane Zandier
The Verdict
Expect the Hoos to be the only team that has an easy time scoring.
Behind Armstrong and with its strong front seven, UVA will outpace a weakly one-dimensional Cardinal offense.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -3.5 (-108) with Heritage
