NCAAF Week 6 Parlay (at +273): Virginia Continues to Struggle and Missouri Scares Florida
Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, October 8, 2022 at noon ET at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
Disappointment against Duke
I thought that Duke would be the perfect opponent against which Virginia might break out of its offensive slump.
Even after last week's success, Duke, a team that Virginia typically succeeds against, ranks 10th(out of 14 teams) in the ACC in passing defense.
Plus, Billy Kemp returned (although he reinjured himself and likely won't play this week), and quarterback Brennan Armstrong was getting some respectable measure of run support in the form of the improved and efficient Perris Jones.
Hopeless Armstrong
However, against Duke, Armstrong once again struggled to complete more than half his passes.
Armstrong, moreover, is still throwing more interceptions than touchdowns on the season despite having faced the likes of Richmond and Old Dominion.
To be clear, I do not dislike Armstrong this week simply because of what he did last week -- it is basically never acceptable to derive one's thoughts on a given game from one's observations of the last game.
All year long, Armstrong has been awful.
Mentally, he doesn't make good decisions, often overlooking open receivers while staring down well-covered options.
One might say that these poor decisions are a product of the change in offensive scheme.
But this change can't explain everything that's wrong with Armstrong.
For example, he does sometimes make the right decision only to overthrow or underthrow his target.
No change in offensive scheme can whether a quarterback hits or fails to hit an open target.
I mentioned drops in a previous article, and they are an issue because Virginia's lack of depth at wide receiver is forcing a lower number of wide receivers to spend more time on the field, which leads to fatigue.
However, Armstrong owns the worst completion percentage among ACC quarterbacks, and accounting for drops by considering adjusted completion percentage doesn't alter the point.
With Armstrong being who he now is, even when he throws more passes like he did last year and he has to come from behind, Virginia regularly struggles to reach 20 points.
Virginia's Run Defense
Given Virginia's offensive struggles, we are left with either betting the "under" or betting Louisville.
This decision comes down to the success of Virginia's run defense.
In the Cavaliers' lowest-scoring game, Old Dominion failed to reach 100 yards.
Conversely, when the Cavs gave up its most points all season, its opponent exploded for more than 190 rushing yards.
Louisville Rush Attack
Louisville is just the team to exploit Virginia's repeatedly vulnerable rush defense.
The Cardinals actually lead the ACC in rushing.
They are led by a quarterback in Malik Cunningham who, as Duke's quarterback last week did last week against Virginia, ably rushes for a lot of yards in a given game.
Other Cardinal running backs include Jawhar Jordan, who ran for 91 yards on 5.4 YPC against Florida State.
Now, you'll need to place your bet later in the week because Cunningham is listed as 'day-to-day' after possibly suffering a concussion last week.
It might be the case that Louisville only has Jordan to rely on in its rush attack.
If that is the case, then the "under" is the way to go.
But if Louisville gets another running back higher in the depth chart than Jordan or if Cunningham is fit to compete, then Louisville is the play.
While it is not ideal that Louisville has a couple injured running backs, it's also not ideal for Virginia that Kemp is hurt and, obviously, that it's run defense has been so bad since its season opener against Richmond.
Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 8, 2022 at noon ET (ESPNU) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Missouri vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
Mizzou is well-practiced in the art of limiting mobile quarterbacks.
The Tigers have had to face Kansas State's Adrian Martinez and Auburn's Robby Ashford.
They improved after limiting Martinez's running to limit Ashford to 1.4 below his season average in YPC and to stymy Auburn's top running back.
Missouri has allowed a lot of rushing yards because it has faced opponents who love to run the ball.
But the Tigers rank 30th nationally at limiting opposing YPC.
Their run defense ability is crucial given Florida's overall reliance on running the ball, to which quarterback Anthony Richardson's inaccurate and inefficient passing contributes as does his need to run the ball instead of pass it.
Gator Defense vs. Tiger Rush Attack
Florida's weekly defensive woes make it a constant threat to lose.
Largely because of their defense, the Gators have yet to beat an FBS opponent by more than three points -- they even almost lost to South Florida at home.
As apparent in their games against Utah, South Florida, and Tennessee, the Gators struggle to limit quarterbacks who can run.
Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook can run -- he is his team's third-leading rusher.
Furthermore, running backs Cody Schrader and Nathaniel Peat are both efficient options and big-play threats on the ground.
While Cook is also an efficient passer and Florida's pass defense ranks middle-of-the-road nationally at limiting opposing passer rating, Missouri's best offensive impetus on Saturday will come on the ground.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals -3 at -110 & Tigers +10.5 at -105 at +273 odds with BetOnline
Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, October 8, 2022 at noon ET at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
Disappointment against Duke
I thought that Duke would be the perfect opponent against which Virginia might break out of its offensive slump.
Even after last week's success, Duke, a team that Virginia typically succeeds against, ranks 10th(out of 14 teams) in the ACC in passing defense.
Plus, Billy Kemp returned (although he reinjured himself and likely won't play this week), and quarterback Brennan Armstrong was getting some respectable measure of run support in the form of the improved and efficient Perris Jones.
Hopeless Armstrong
However, against Duke, Armstrong once again struggled to complete more than half his passes.
Armstrong, moreover, is still throwing more interceptions than touchdowns on the season despite having faced the likes of Richmond and Old Dominion.
To be clear, I do not dislike Armstrong this week simply because of what he did last week -- it is basically never acceptable to derive one's thoughts on a given game from one's observations of the last game.
All year long, Armstrong has been awful.
Mentally, he doesn't make good decisions, often overlooking open receivers while staring down well-covered options.
One might say that these poor decisions are a product of the change in offensive scheme.
But this change can't explain everything that's wrong with Armstrong.
For example, he does sometimes make the right decision only to overthrow or underthrow his target.
No change in offensive scheme can whether a quarterback hits or fails to hit an open target.
I mentioned drops in a previous article, and they are an issue because Virginia's lack of depth at wide receiver is forcing a lower number of wide receivers to spend more time on the field, which leads to fatigue.
However, Armstrong owns the worst completion percentage among ACC quarterbacks, and accounting for drops by considering adjusted completion percentage doesn't alter the point.
With Armstrong being who he now is, even when he throws more passes like he did last year and he has to come from behind, Virginia regularly struggles to reach 20 points.
Virginia's Run Defense
Given Virginia's offensive struggles, we are left with either betting the "under" or betting Louisville.
This decision comes down to the success of Virginia's run defense.
In the Cavaliers' lowest-scoring game, Old Dominion failed to reach 100 yards.
Conversely, when the Cavs gave up its most points all season, its opponent exploded for more than 190 rushing yards.
Louisville Rush Attack
Louisville is just the team to exploit Virginia's repeatedly vulnerable rush defense.
The Cardinals actually lead the ACC in rushing.
They are led by a quarterback in Malik Cunningham who, as Duke's quarterback last week did last week against Virginia, ably rushes for a lot of yards in a given game.
Other Cardinal running backs include Jawhar Jordan, who ran for 91 yards on 5.4 YPC against Florida State.
Now, you'll need to place your bet later in the week because Cunningham is listed as 'day-to-day' after possibly suffering a concussion last week.
It might be the case that Louisville only has Jordan to rely on in its rush attack.
If that is the case, then the "under" is the way to go.
But if Louisville gets another running back higher in the depth chart than Jordan or if Cunningham is fit to compete, then Louisville is the play.
While it is not ideal that Louisville has a couple injured running backs, it's also not ideal for Virginia that Kemp is hurt and, obviously, that it's run defense has been so bad since its season opener against Richmond.
Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 8, 2022 at noon ET (ESPNU) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Missouri vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
Mizzou is well-practiced in the art of limiting mobile quarterbacks.
The Tigers have had to face Kansas State's Adrian Martinez and Auburn's Robby Ashford.
They improved after limiting Martinez's running to limit Ashford to 1.4 below his season average in YPC and to stymy Auburn's top running back.
Missouri has allowed a lot of rushing yards because it has faced opponents who love to run the ball.
But the Tigers rank 30th nationally at limiting opposing YPC.
Their run defense ability is crucial given Florida's overall reliance on running the ball, to which quarterback Anthony Richardson's inaccurate and inefficient passing contributes as does his need to run the ball instead of pass it.
Gator Defense vs. Tiger Rush Attack
Florida's weekly defensive woes make it a constant threat to lose.
Largely because of their defense, the Gators have yet to beat an FBS opponent by more than three points -- they even almost lost to South Florida at home.
As apparent in their games against Utah, South Florida, and Tennessee, the Gators struggle to limit quarterbacks who can run.
Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook can run -- he is his team's third-leading rusher.
Furthermore, running backs Cody Schrader and Nathaniel Peat are both efficient options and big-play threats on the ground.
While Cook is also an efficient passer and Florida's pass defense ranks middle-of-the-road nationally at limiting opposing passer rating, Missouri's best offensive impetus on Saturday will come on the ground.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals -3 at -110 & Tigers +10.5 at -105 at +273 odds with BetOnline
