Louisville vs. MTSU

M

mwwebb81

Pretty much a regular
Being that I keep very close tabs on Louisville football, I am going to try to do a writeup on the Louisville game each week for anyone looking to play it.

This week, the Cardinals face Middle Tennessee State at Papa Johns Cardinal Stadium. The Cardinals are fresh off of a 73-10 masacre of Murray State, and the offense looked absolutely unstopable in the opener. Brohm made a big statement for his heisman hopes, and Harry Douglas showed why he is one of the best WR's in the country.

Middle Tennessee is coming off of a 27-14 loss to Florida Atlantic. A pretty bad loss for MTSU, considering they were the more talented team in that game, yet still lost by 13.

The game last year was played in Nashville, and was a 44-17 Cardinal victory.

Something tells me that Middle Tennessee was looking ahead to their nationally televised date with Louisville, and that accounted for some of their uninspiring game against FAU. I by no means think they are a great team, but they are much better than they showed in their opener.

I think this game will be pretty similar to last year, with both teams scoring a little more.

My Prediction:

Louisville 55
MTSU 20

The line currently sits at 38.5, so I would probably sit this one out. I could easily see the Cards covering, but at the same time could reason MTSU staying under that 38.5 number.

I suggest not making a play on this game, unless it is the over/under play, which has yet to come out.

I would play any Over that is 65 or less, and would consider going up to 70.

Hope this helps!

WEBB
 
Yeah, I would consider that, because I have a feeling that MTSU is gonna score more points in the 2nd half. Louisville has a long history of getting off to quick starts at home (It took 1 play to score in the opener!) so a first half play wouldnt be out of the question if it is under 3 TD's.
 
By the way, when I say "MTSU is gonna score more points in the 2nd half" I mean than they did in the first half, not more than Louisville is gonna score in the 2nd half! Just wanted to clear that up, because it looked funny when I read back over it.
 
Thanks for the write-up. Basically figured I'd be staying away from this one once I saw the line. Was hoping for something under 35, but MTSU's loss pretty much guaranteed that it wouldn't happen.
 
Added one two unit play on a game that I REALLY REALLY LOVE:

Louisville vs. MTSU OVER 57 (2 Units)

I really dont see how this game would go under.

Since the beggining of the 2005 season, Louisville has averaged just over 49 points per game at home.

The teams combined for a score of 61 points in last years contest, which was in Nashville, with both teams having in my opinion better defenses last year.

I think there is an excellent chance in this game for Louisville to cover the over by itself!!!

Final Score: Louisville 55, MTSU 20

I would stay away from the point spread in this game, but pound the over!

WEBB
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I agree with you guys. I dont like the 21.5 point spread for the first half. If it drops off a point I might consider it, but I could easily see it right at 3 TD's, and certainly dont want to get hooked.

WEBB
 
webb, just checked my other book (the greek) it is now at -20.5, so hit it while it's there -21.5 everywhere else.
 
Line is now -20.5 1H at Greek... I think there's huge value in that line. MTSU is a not an experienced team... didn't score till the 4Q vs. FL-INT. They have no running game which means the game...mainly the 1H should take awhile.

Also have 3 brand new LB's... think this could get ugly quick once their only strength... the D-LINE wears down.
 
Like your thoughts mwwebb ... I took Louisville -39.5 because I like them to score at least 49 and could see Middle Tenn St being blank. They were blank the first three quarters against Fla Atl until they scored 14 in the fourth. I trust Louisville putting up the points for the over, but don't trust Midd Tenn St.
 
Telling you guys, I think that was more MTSU looking ahead than Fla Atl's Defense. Murray scored 10 on us at home, and MTSU has a much better offense than Murray. Still sticking with 55-20, and a comforatable over, but I could care less whether it is 55-20, or 55-3, as long as I win!
 
What was MTSU looking ahead to? An absolute ass kicking?

They lost 2 starting O-lineman for 2 weeks, and the starting center has to shift to RG because of a broken hand.

Does that make anyone fell easier?
 
makes me feel just fine.

They stayed competitive at the begging of the game last year, and if memory serves me right, they even covered the spread.

By looking ahead I mean they were concentrating on playing a nationally ranked team on television, and lost to a team they should have beaten.

Once again, I am not saying they are great, but am saying they are not as bad as they played against Florida Atlantic.

You will see, the over will prevail.

WEBB
 
MTSU is on to their 4th string center, if you could call it that.

Also, don't forget Louisville has a Heisman to win.
 
mwwebb81 said:
makes me feel just fine.

They stayed competitive at the begging of the game last year, and if memory serves me right, they even covered the spread.
Click to expand...

Webb -

With all do respect, and remember, I'm saying with all do respect, least year's game was played at MTSU, with Cantwell making his 2nd career start under center because of Brohm's hand, and still some inexperience at RB because of Bush being on the rack.

He still managed to light them up for 340 yards.

Not saying I'm right and you're wrong, but it's always good to have these debates to cover all the angles.

GL
 
Lets also not forget that Cantwell is rated the #1 QB in the Junior class by Mel Kiper and I truly feel as though him being in the game had nothing to do with MTSU keeping it close at the beggining.

Also keep in mind that I havent missed a Louisville game in 6 years, and certainly know what my team is and is not capable of.

The defense we have this year is young, fairly inexperienced, but very talented. That being said, by mid season I expect them to be very good, but have a few drives during each game where they allow the opponent to move the ball pretty easily, just as Murray did.

Your points about Cantwell being in the game, and last years inexperience at RB (Even though we did still have a guy who is now playing for the Chiefs in Kolby Smith), and the game being played on the road only make the argument stronger for the OVER.

We score more at home, this years offense looks more dynamic, and our defense is a little worse than at the beggining of last year. What does that equal? UofL scores more, MTSU scores more, and the over prevails.

I dont take offense, so dont worry about offending me. I enjoy debates, and also think they are a good thing. Just be aware that I highly doubt any member of this site has closer tabs on UofL than I do, and I usually have a pretty good idea of what they are going to do.

All I know is after all the support I have been giving this over, I better be right!

Good Luck to everyone!

WEBB
 
Nice job with the write up and insight. I had this one pegged as well and it looks like those of us who got in early made a good call as the line has jumped up 2.5 pts from 57 up to 59.5.
 
Good dialog going. Against my better judgement, I took Louisville at -39, that's just a big ass number but it's only 1u.

The glaring points for me are in the MTSU box score. Against Fla Atl, they didn't score until the 4th quarter, and only one offensive TD (other was blocked punt for 6). For Pete's sake they only had 18 yards of rushing on 32 carries and 199 yds in the air with 2 picks. Even with a weaker Louisville defense (vs last year), I just don't see these guys scoring more than a TD (if at all) vs Louisville hanging 60-70 on them at home.

Appreciate the insight Webb, just not listening. I'll be the first to line up for the 'I told you so's' if you're right. ;-)

Juice
 
I really don't think your on the wrong page with the Louisville spread. Other than Week 1. This might be the worst team Louisville will play this year. I think they will run it up on Middle Tenn. This Louisville team wants to prove that their new coaching will not effect their offense. UL's defense is also in a situation to show improvement from last week. Not that allowing 10 points is bad, they just made small mistakes throughout the game. MTSU also allowed Florida Atlantic to put up 27. Louisville should realistically double that. Then MTSU is probably traumatized right now because they just lost they game they could have one in week 1, week 2 and 3 is Louisville then LSU. I don't see them having much sucess. (MSTU)
 
Believe me Juice, I certainly hope that Louisville wins by 100! I think there is a great chance that they cover that spread, it was just a little too close to what I was guessing for me to play it. I do love that over though!

Good Luck!

WEBB
 
If you guys want any updates on MTSU's O-line problems, here is a link to their press conference. Forward it to about the 5 min mark for it to start.

Their starting center will be making his "first snap in his life," tonight.

These guys go from playing in front of 11,000 people at FAU, to 42,000+ on ESNP2.
 
Weather looks like it is going to be cloudy with 30 percent chance of rain this morning through early afternoon, but everything should be clear by game time.
 
thoughts on 1st half over? The number is 33, there were that many scored last yr in what was a 23-10 game at half. L-Ville settled for 3 field goals though and I don't see that happening tonight. MTSU might not score 10 in the 1st half either but I think they score 7, this has a good shot of hitting. Any thoughts?
 
I could see it happening, although I like the 57 I got for the whole game much better! I could easily see something like 28-7 at the half, or maybe even 35-3. I still think MTSU will score more in the 2nd half than they do in the first.
 
I like the way you are thinking with 35-3. Further undiscplined action by me is taking the 1Q Lou -9.5, 1H over 34, and 1H Lou -23.5 for 1 unit each. I couldn't help myself, the OSU/Cin game is of no interest, too tight for me.

Go Cards. I may end up the dumbest MF'er on this board in a few hours...
 
Yeah, MTSU's offensive line really looks like a problem for them..........or maybe it doesnt. Like I said, the over, no problem at all.
 
mww yes mtsu covered last yr i remember the game and as of right now looks like they cover again i stayed away from it
 
Wow, should have bet my life savings on that over! Already a winner, and not even close to halftime! How great is that!!!
 
I just got home and not sure how 'ville has looked but obviously really bad. At least the 1st quarter over hit (by 35 points lol) to cancel out the bet basically.
 
Defense has looked awful in the first half, but I have a feeling they are gonna get it fixed at half time. They arent as good as last year, but they arent anywhere near this bad. They need to replace Raglin with Heath at safety, and put in Turenne at CB. Hell, while they are at it, stick Willie Williams in there too, it sure as hell cant hurt anything!
 
And just in case anyone were wondering, i wouldnt touch either line for the 2nd half. Currently Louisville -14.5 or The over 37. Wouldnt bet against either one, but just dont trust either line.
 
Webb -

I just wanted to be first in line for your "I told you so." I deserve it, excellent call. I should have never argued with a man that knows his team.

I just don't understand where these MTSU points came from. Louisville scored a few more than I had anticipated, but I just don't understand how they have given up that many points. I was at work most of the first 3Q's, and only caught a few minutes here and there.

Its a shame the offense has to run the ball now to keep the "other players," I refuse to use the D word in reference to them, off the field.

Any insight you picked up would be appreciated, ad I don't want to make this mistake again.
 
hoops, no problem.

The same thing happened this week as happened last week. Defense was completely asleep in the first half, and then stepped up and played well in the 2nd half with the exception of one shitty missed tackle that went for a long run, and some horrible calls by the official. I especially thought they should have let that call against Willie Williams go, because the sorry MTSU bastard still had a foot inbounds when intial contact was made.

I had a feeling that MTSU would score some points, just because Murray had several drives last week where the moved the ball pretty easily, and being a division 2 team, they should be worse on offense than MTSU. That being said, there is no way in hell I could have guessed they would put up 42, and am quite embarraced that it happened.

That being said, I have a guess as to what happened, and would like to share a little insight heading into next week. Dont take this the wrong way, because I am in no way making excuses for why the defense has played like garbage the last two weeks, but have picked up on one thing.

We have the same defensive coordinator as last year, and are in the same defensive scheme. Whats the difference between this year and last year? Blitzing the passer, and applying pressure.

Here is my guess. I believe that Cassity has held quite a bit of the defensive strategy back in the first two games, mostly because we knew they would be wins regardless due to the great offense. I am sure that the first game circled on the schedule was the UK game next Saturday in Lexington. Being that UK has a very very good offense, he is probably trying to disguise some of the things that we are going to throw at them next week. I fully expect a lot of blitzing, and a much different looking D next week for that game. Those guys will show up next week, and play with a passion that we have not yet seen.

That being said, I dont want anyone to get me wrong here and expect a shut down D next week. Both teams are gonna get their points, but if I were a betting man (lol), I would guess that UK is gonna score less next week than MTSU did tonight.

Gotta look a little further into the game next week, and watch UK this weekend, but my initial guess:

UofL 49, UK 35

And I can pretty much guarantee that I will be playing any Over that is less than 70!

Hope this helps, and keep your eyes open for my UofL write up for the UK game sometime next week!
 
I'll line up for my ass whoopin' as well - excellent call tonight webb. Will be listening closely the rest of the season.

Cheers.
 
No Problem Juice.

It would be hard for me not to know what is going on with UofL football, since I spend a lot of my free time watching, reading, and researching them!

Good Luck the rest of the year!

WEBB
 
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