Louisville vs. Georgia Tech: NCAAF Week 6 Picks and Game Predictions
Louisville Cardinals vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Friday, October 9, 2020, at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field in Atlanta Georgia
Louisville’s Offensive Line
Despite losing first-round draft pick Mekhi Becton at left tackle, I expected Louisville’s offensive line to improve.
Four of Louisville’s current starters on the offensive line played in at least 10 games last year.
This includes Adonis Boone, who got to fill in for Becton when the latter went down to injury.
The fifth Louisville starter is Renato Brown who started against Florida State and Notre Dame last year while maintaining his redshirt.
I write all of this because the Cardinals’ offensive line is a source of significant criticism and it is not fair.
So far this year, the Cardinals have had to deal with two of the top pass rushing units both in the ACC and in the nation.
While they were no match for Miami and Pittsburgh, we will see on Friday that this unit is actually significantly better than it seems to be to some.
Georgia Tech Defensive Line
In terms of pass rush, Georgia Tech poses drastically less of a threat than Miami and Pittsburgh.
Of the six sacks this season that the Yellow Jackets have accrued, two have come from a defensive back and two from an apparently injured defensive lineman.
On a defensive-line unit that helped the team rank 103rd in sacks per game last year, there isn’t much change to derive hope from besides Antwan Owens returning to his preferred position in the interior.
As part of the d-line's rotation inside, senior Jahaziel Lee is switching from offensive line to play what is a new position for him on the college level.
Louisville Ground Game vs. Georgia Tech Run Defense
Even when Louisville was allowing as many tackles for loss as it did last season, it maintained big-play ability.
The Cardinals love to run the ball in 2020 — they run with the 28th-highest frequency by percentage — and they will be bolstered by their relative improvement in the trenches.
For them, Georgia Tech is the perfect opponent also because of its notorious problems in stopping the run. In continuity with last year, Georgia Tech ranks outside the top 100 in allowing 171 rush yards per game.
It is very telling that the Yellow Jackets allowed as high a rushing total as they did last week against a Syracuse squad that has tremendous work ahead of itself in terms of improving its run-blocking.
Syracuse, which ran for over 160 yards on four YPC against Georgia Tech, also lacks the established running back, the home-run-hitting ability, and the efficiency that the Cardinals' rush attack possesses.
On Louisville, look for Javian Hawkins, who’s already broken a 75-yarder and averages over five YPC. He is easily the biggest reason why Louisville kept things close with Pitt and Pitt’s monstrous defense.
Malik Cunningham
I do expect a bounce-back effort from Cardinal quarterback Malik Cunningham.
He’s taking a lot of flak for his performance against Pittsburgh. But he had put up big numbers before against Miami and Western Kentucky.
Typically, while he flops against stronger secondaries also like Kentucky’s last year, he has no problem against the weaker secondaries.
Especially without being bothered incessantly by the opposing pass rush, Cunningham will put up another 300-yard+ performance against a Jacket pass defense that ranks 100th after allowing Syracuse’s and UCF’s respective starting quarterbacks to each have their best game of the season.
Jeff Sims
Jeff Sims forms the heart of Georgia Tech’s offense. He’s the starting quarterback but also the team’s leading rusher. Hence, the team’s one cover came in Sims’ one good game.
Sims failed to complete over half of his passes against a UCF secondary that ranks 90th in opposing passer rating.
A decent performance against Syracuse should have been doable. During the offseason, the Orange had lost seven defensive backs including four who had been starters at some time or another.
Although secondary was and is not shaping up to be any kind of strong point for them, Sims only completed 46.4 percent of his passes and threw four interceptions to one touchdown.
One problem that he has is that he continues to stare down receivers. He’ll make a pre-snap read and lock onto his predetermined primary target. He won’t get away with that against a college-level defense that can breathe air.
The Verdict
Georgia Tech doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Louisville.
It’s the big plays that really hurt Louisville in its high-scoring loss against Miami and that make Louisville’s defensive stats look so bad. But the still rebuilding Yellow Jackets don’t have that prowess on offense.
Whereas the Yellow Jackets rely too much on one player who brings too little, the Cardinals have a big-play and efficient rush attack to go along with Cunningham.
Best Bet: Cardinals -4.5 (-112) with Bookmaker
Louisville Cardinals vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Friday, October 9, 2020, at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field in Atlanta Georgia
Louisville’s Offensive Line
Despite losing first-round draft pick Mekhi Becton at left tackle, I expected Louisville’s offensive line to improve.
Four of Louisville’s current starters on the offensive line played in at least 10 games last year.
This includes Adonis Boone, who got to fill in for Becton when the latter went down to injury.
The fifth Louisville starter is Renato Brown who started against Florida State and Notre Dame last year while maintaining his redshirt.
I write all of this because the Cardinals’ offensive line is a source of significant criticism and it is not fair.
So far this year, the Cardinals have had to deal with two of the top pass rushing units both in the ACC and in the nation.
While they were no match for Miami and Pittsburgh, we will see on Friday that this unit is actually significantly better than it seems to be to some.
Georgia Tech Defensive Line
In terms of pass rush, Georgia Tech poses drastically less of a threat than Miami and Pittsburgh.
Of the six sacks this season that the Yellow Jackets have accrued, two have come from a defensive back and two from an apparently injured defensive lineman.
On a defensive-line unit that helped the team rank 103rd in sacks per game last year, there isn’t much change to derive hope from besides Antwan Owens returning to his preferred position in the interior.
As part of the d-line's rotation inside, senior Jahaziel Lee is switching from offensive line to play what is a new position for him on the college level.
Louisville Ground Game vs. Georgia Tech Run Defense
Even when Louisville was allowing as many tackles for loss as it did last season, it maintained big-play ability.
The Cardinals love to run the ball in 2020 — they run with the 28th-highest frequency by percentage — and they will be bolstered by their relative improvement in the trenches.
For them, Georgia Tech is the perfect opponent also because of its notorious problems in stopping the run. In continuity with last year, Georgia Tech ranks outside the top 100 in allowing 171 rush yards per game.
It is very telling that the Yellow Jackets allowed as high a rushing total as they did last week against a Syracuse squad that has tremendous work ahead of itself in terms of improving its run-blocking.
Syracuse, which ran for over 160 yards on four YPC against Georgia Tech, also lacks the established running back, the home-run-hitting ability, and the efficiency that the Cardinals' rush attack possesses.
On Louisville, look for Javian Hawkins, who’s already broken a 75-yarder and averages over five YPC. He is easily the biggest reason why Louisville kept things close with Pitt and Pitt’s monstrous defense.
Malik Cunningham
I do expect a bounce-back effort from Cardinal quarterback Malik Cunningham.
He’s taking a lot of flak for his performance against Pittsburgh. But he had put up big numbers before against Miami and Western Kentucky.
Typically, while he flops against stronger secondaries also like Kentucky’s last year, he has no problem against the weaker secondaries.
Especially without being bothered incessantly by the opposing pass rush, Cunningham will put up another 300-yard+ performance against a Jacket pass defense that ranks 100th after allowing Syracuse’s and UCF’s respective starting quarterbacks to each have their best game of the season.
Jeff Sims
Jeff Sims forms the heart of Georgia Tech’s offense. He’s the starting quarterback but also the team’s leading rusher. Hence, the team’s one cover came in Sims’ one good game.
Sims failed to complete over half of his passes against a UCF secondary that ranks 90th in opposing passer rating.
A decent performance against Syracuse should have been doable. During the offseason, the Orange had lost seven defensive backs including four who had been starters at some time or another.
Although secondary was and is not shaping up to be any kind of strong point for them, Sims only completed 46.4 percent of his passes and threw four interceptions to one touchdown.
One problem that he has is that he continues to stare down receivers. He’ll make a pre-snap read and lock onto his predetermined primary target. He won’t get away with that against a college-level defense that can breathe air.
The Verdict
Georgia Tech doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Louisville.
It’s the big plays that really hurt Louisville in its high-scoring loss against Miami and that make Louisville’s defensive stats look so bad. But the still rebuilding Yellow Jackets don’t have that prowess on offense.
Whereas the Yellow Jackets rely too much on one player who brings too little, the Cardinals have a big-play and efficient rush attack to go along with Cunningham.
Best Bet: Cardinals -4.5 (-112) with Bookmaker
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