NCAAF Bowls Parlay (+276) for the Weekend: Cincinnati to Need Few Points to Win
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 11 a.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Best Bet: Parlay Bearcats +1 at -105 & Under 39.5 at -108 at +276 odds with BetOnline
Betting Strategy
This game might seem unpredictable given the large number of opt-outs and given the disruption in coaching.
However, I take these changes to render it easy to tell what each team will try to do and which team is more likely to succeed.
So, let's do the grind work and establish who will miss or play in this game and let's end with a confident parlay pick.
Cincinnati's Coaching Departures
Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell accepted the head coaching job offered by the Wisconsin. Badgers.
Fickell will not coach his now former team in the bowl game, because he wants to prepare for this new job.
It's not just that he's moving on, though. Fickell also took some coaches with him, leaving the coaching cupboard thin in Cincinnati for the moment.
Fascinatingly, the Bearcats hired the now former head coach of the team that they're about to face.
That coach, Scott Satterfield, resigned himself to watching the bowl game. He will not participate in the awkward situation in which he would decide to help either his former team beat his current team or his current team defeat his former team.
Play-Calling
The desolate state of Cincinnati's current coaching crew is reflected in the question of who will call plays for the Bearcat offense?
The tight ends coach Nate Letton is going to call plays.
He won't do it alone, though. Apparently, he needs help, and the offensive line running back coaches are equipped to lend him that help.
Bearcat Offensive Strategy
I like the Bearcats in this one because, sure, the lack of experienced play-calling will limit their ceiling in a unique way.
But they also don't need to be fancy or complicated in order to succeed enough on offense to win the game.
To explain, the Bearcats are missing their starting quarterback, Ben Bryant, to a season-ending injury.
More critically, they don't have their top-six leaders in receiving yards.
It seems obvious that Cincinnati's offensive strategy will involve a heavy dose of running the ball.
This is crucial for the total: an "under" bet loves a running clock, and a heavy dose of running helps ensure that the clock is always running.
Unlike its pass attack, Cincinnati's rush attack is intact.
Measure of Continuity
There is some continuity in the Bearcat coaching personnel.
This continuity means that there remain connections between Bearcat coaches and players.
Obviously, a Bearcat bettor should hope for the coaches to know their players and for the players to respect their coaches back.
Cincinnati is being led by Kerry Coombs, cornerbacks coach and special teams coordinator.
Importantly, Cincinnati's new head coach decided to retain him.
So, the Bearcats on Saturday will play for somebody whom they will more likely want to impress.
Their new head coach, Satterfield, will watch them play anyways.
Bearcat players should be motivated to impress their new head coach so that they may advance their case to start for the team next year.
Evan Prater
One fascinating player is Cincy quarterback Evan Prater.
His team's new head coach is well-known for liking mobile quarterbacks who can viably pass and run -- Malik Cunningham was just such a quarterback at Louisville.
Prater is also just such a quarterback.
He is a dual-threat -- in his last game, he ran for over 80 yards.
A run-heavy Bearcat squad is one that will feature Prater, who is primed to impress his new coach.
Louisville Rush Defense
It follows from all this that a majorly decisive question is whether Louisville has a strong rush defense.
From the beginning of their regular season, when they surrendered over 200 rushing yards to Syracuse, to the last game in which they allowed Kentucky running back Chris Rodriguez to run for 120 yards on five YPC, the Cardinals proved vulnerable against good running backs.
They also remained prone to allowing quarterbacks, such as Syracuse's, to run for a lot of yards.
Louisville Coaching
The Cardinals' coaching personnel has likewise been gutted.
Deion Branch has been promoted to interim head coach.
A number of graduate students will assume elevated roles in order to prepare the team.
It is not clear who will call plays for them.
The discrepancy in coaching experience between Coombs and Branch is significant, and it is one that will be visible when these two teams play each other.
Cardinals' Offensive Outlook
With starting quarterback Malik Cunningham having opted out, Brock Domann is in line to start.
Domann barely completes over half his passes while lacking the threat as a runner posed by his Bearcat counterpart.
Domann will also miss talent at wide receiver.
Tyler Hudson, who was by a tremendous margin the team's leading wide receiver, is preparing for the NFL Draft.
Unlike the case for Cincinnati, one of Louisville's top running backs, Tiyon Evans, will also miss the game.
Both teams are missing a key cornerback, but Cincinnati's highly-ranked defense remains largely intact.
The Verdict
Both defenses appear in great shape, and they will be aided by poor play-calling from the opponent.
Cincinnati still has the personnel to run past Louisville in what the situation calls for to be a uniquely low-scoring game.
For the above reasons, I recommend parlaying the Bearcats ATS with the "under."
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 11 a.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Best Bet: Parlay Bearcats +1 at -105 & Under 39.5 at -108 at +276 odds with BetOnline
Betting Strategy
This game might seem unpredictable given the large number of opt-outs and given the disruption in coaching.
However, I take these changes to render it easy to tell what each team will try to do and which team is more likely to succeed.
So, let's do the grind work and establish who will miss or play in this game and let's end with a confident parlay pick.
Cincinnati's Coaching Departures
Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell accepted the head coaching job offered by the Wisconsin. Badgers.
Fickell will not coach his now former team in the bowl game, because he wants to prepare for this new job.
It's not just that he's moving on, though. Fickell also took some coaches with him, leaving the coaching cupboard thin in Cincinnati for the moment.
Fascinatingly, the Bearcats hired the now former head coach of the team that they're about to face.
That coach, Scott Satterfield, resigned himself to watching the bowl game. He will not participate in the awkward situation in which he would decide to help either his former team beat his current team or his current team defeat his former team.
Play-Calling
The desolate state of Cincinnati's current coaching crew is reflected in the question of who will call plays for the Bearcat offense?
The tight ends coach Nate Letton is going to call plays.
He won't do it alone, though. Apparently, he needs help, and the offensive line running back coaches are equipped to lend him that help.
Bearcat Offensive Strategy
I like the Bearcats in this one because, sure, the lack of experienced play-calling will limit their ceiling in a unique way.
But they also don't need to be fancy or complicated in order to succeed enough on offense to win the game.
To explain, the Bearcats are missing their starting quarterback, Ben Bryant, to a season-ending injury.
More critically, they don't have their top-six leaders in receiving yards.
It seems obvious that Cincinnati's offensive strategy will involve a heavy dose of running the ball.
This is crucial for the total: an "under" bet loves a running clock, and a heavy dose of running helps ensure that the clock is always running.
Unlike its pass attack, Cincinnati's rush attack is intact.
Measure of Continuity
There is some continuity in the Bearcat coaching personnel.
This continuity means that there remain connections between Bearcat coaches and players.
Obviously, a Bearcat bettor should hope for the coaches to know their players and for the players to respect their coaches back.
Cincinnati is being led by Kerry Coombs, cornerbacks coach and special teams coordinator.
Importantly, Cincinnati's new head coach decided to retain him.
So, the Bearcats on Saturday will play for somebody whom they will more likely want to impress.
Their new head coach, Satterfield, will watch them play anyways.
Bearcat players should be motivated to impress their new head coach so that they may advance their case to start for the team next year.
Evan Prater
One fascinating player is Cincy quarterback Evan Prater.
His team's new head coach is well-known for liking mobile quarterbacks who can viably pass and run -- Malik Cunningham was just such a quarterback at Louisville.
Prater is also just such a quarterback.
He is a dual-threat -- in his last game, he ran for over 80 yards.
A run-heavy Bearcat squad is one that will feature Prater, who is primed to impress his new coach.
Louisville Rush Defense
It follows from all this that a majorly decisive question is whether Louisville has a strong rush defense.
From the beginning of their regular season, when they surrendered over 200 rushing yards to Syracuse, to the last game in which they allowed Kentucky running back Chris Rodriguez to run for 120 yards on five YPC, the Cardinals proved vulnerable against good running backs.
They also remained prone to allowing quarterbacks, such as Syracuse's, to run for a lot of yards.
Louisville Coaching
The Cardinals' coaching personnel has likewise been gutted.
Deion Branch has been promoted to interim head coach.
A number of graduate students will assume elevated roles in order to prepare the team.
It is not clear who will call plays for them.
The discrepancy in coaching experience between Coombs and Branch is significant, and it is one that will be visible when these two teams play each other.
Cardinals' Offensive Outlook
With starting quarterback Malik Cunningham having opted out, Brock Domann is in line to start.
Domann barely completes over half his passes while lacking the threat as a runner posed by his Bearcat counterpart.
Domann will also miss talent at wide receiver.
Tyler Hudson, who was by a tremendous margin the team's leading wide receiver, is preparing for the NFL Draft.
Unlike the case for Cincinnati, one of Louisville's top running backs, Tiyon Evans, will also miss the game.
Both teams are missing a key cornerback, but Cincinnati's highly-ranked defense remains largely intact.
The Verdict
Both defenses appear in great shape, and they will be aided by poor play-calling from the opponent.
Cincinnati still has the personnel to run past Louisville in what the situation calls for to be a uniquely low-scoring game.
For the above reasons, I recommend parlaying the Bearcats ATS with the "under."
