Louisville/Memphis discussion

hile75 · Oct 10, 2008

Last I checked line was L'Ville -6 and total was 55. This may be wrong at this point.

Let's work on coming to an agreement about tonights game.

Blue_Chip · Oct 10, 2008

L'ville is on the road, which bodes well for their opponent, but I wonder if Memphis has the ability to hang. Ramble has me thinking of arbing the game, take Memphis ML pregame then hope for a Tigers score early and bet Lville ML live betting.

hile75 · Oct 10, 2008

My early lean is under. Memphis should run the ball a ton, and I don't see memphis scoring more than 14 points tonight

scraps@midnight · Oct 10, 2008

i will preface this by admitting i have been an the wrong side of louisville three times this year...something always seems to go wrong...the cantwell injury cost me the cover in the ucon game i am certain ... and so on and so on...

i see no way memphis should be in this game for more than a quarter. i watched most of the game against, what i consider, a bad uab team and the execution on both sides of the ball was not good. the tackling was extremley poor in particular. the athletes are far superior for louisville and they have vastly improved their performance since early on (discounting the response to cantwells injury). unless the ville is a no show, i am very comfortable laying this number. this team lost to marshall and rice.

hile75 · Oct 10, 2008

Rice is no pushover this year in their defence

RetroVK · Oct 10, 2008

The first thing to address as far as I am concerned is the Memphis defense which has been nothing short of atrocious. They are giving up 6.3 yards per play which is the same amount that Washington state and Syracuse are giving up per play this year. What I find interesting here is the level of their competition has been poor. As you may recall last week I made a point of showing why Illinois defensive stats were bad looking but not as bad as you might think because all of the offenses they played against were high powered and they outperformed those teams averages. The same applies here in my opinion.

Memphis played the following teams and gave up the following vs. them defensively …

UAB had 455 total yards and average 386 per game ……………….avg 6.1 yards per play
Arkansas state had 352 yards of offense and average 463 a game ….avg 5.8 per play
Marshall had 403 yards of offense and averages 327 per game ….avg 5.1 yards per play
Rice had 430 yards of offense and averages 429 per game ……….avg 5.8 per play
Ole miss had 438 yards of offense and averages 382 yards per game avg 6.2 per play

Louisville averages 435 yards per game and averages 5.8 per play. And as you can see the Memphis defense has underperformed in relation to how teams normally perform against other defenses.

What I find significant about this is that Louisville has played better defenses … Kentucky , uconn and Kansas state ( as putrid as it is ) are all likely superior to what the ville will see in this game. And Louisville consistently outperforms other offenses that face their opponents.

Kansas st gives up 5.5 per play
Kentucky 4.3 per play ( that bad performance week 1 doesn’t look nearly as bad for ville )
Uconn 5.1 yards per play.

Note the level of competition here … only ole miss is going to finish with a record above .500 in my estimation from that first list of teams and in my opinion this is by far the toughest offense they will have faced.

To break this down in simple terms , you have an offense that consistently does better vs. their opponents defense than average facing a defense that consistently allows other offenses to perform above their season averages.

To continue on the matchup of the ville vs. Memphis ont his side of the ball I want to point out what I have seen with my own eyes when watching Memphis …. These dudes cant tackle for anything. The cardinals dominated Kansas state and uconn at the line of scrimmage and i have no reason to believe that does not occur here.

Cantwell should be at full health basically according to most reports so little concern there.

On the opposite side of the ball you have a prolific Memphis offense. They average 462 yards per game but again … Arkansas state , uab , marshall and rice are bad defensively. Ron English has turned it around for the Louisville defense who has also outperformed the average .

The cardinals are giving up just 4.3 yards per play ….. The offenses they faced …….
Kansas state 6.1 yards per play
Uconn 5.4 yards per play
Kentucky 4.8 yards per play

You see what I mean ??

Now in watching Memphis I find two things interesting offensively , the first Is that Arkelon Hall does not throw a good ball. The second is that they have a very talented and tall receiver in Carlos Singleton. The kid is 6-8 ,,,,, tough matchup for a lot of those conference usa opponents …but Louisville actually practices against similar every day as they have a 6-8 wr of their own named chichester. … my point is they should be more prepared on how to combat that size than an average team … same is true of Memphis of course in defending chichester … but the difference to me is that Cantwell is delivering balls to chichester and Hall is throwing to singleton … one is a bad college qb and the other is going to be drafted into the nfl … though I cant see him panning out with his mechanics.

As I mentioned earlier , Memphis struggles to tackle and I think that’s a problem for a team facing a lot of fresh runners as the ville will throw bolen , powell and Anderson at you and they all run hard.

If there is one area of concern it would be the kicking game of Louisville compared to that of Memphis .

This will be one of , if not the only games all year where the cardinals might actually have a coaching edge.

Another angle I want to discuss is the fact that the ville let uconn steal one against them last time on national television. They completely dominated the huskies but let them hang around and eventually lost the game .. I think this gives them extra incentive to not take the foot off the gas pedal here.

This is a physical mismatch in my estimation …

scraps@midnight · Oct 10, 2008

point taken hile. they have made me some money this year too. the statement might actually have been more powerful by simply saying "this team lost to marshall".

scraps@midnight · Oct 10, 2008

kyle, outstanding write up! really impressive stuff...

RetroVK · Oct 10, 2008

scraps@midnight said:
point taken hile. they have made me some money this year too. the statement might actually have been more powerful by simply saying "this team lost to marshall".

Definitely have a situation though where one team is moving up in class and one team is moving down in class , to use a horse racing form term.

RetroVK · Oct 10, 2008

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</TD><TD class=breadCrumb>Sports & Recreation: Sporting Events > Local Forecast for Memphis, TN (38104) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Local Forecast | Averages & Records | Event Details

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</TD><TD class=CCTextsm vAlign=top align=left colSpan=3>Memphis, TN (38104)
Updated Oct 10 10:45 a.m. CT
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</TD><TD class=obsTempText vAlign=center align=middle>73°F</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>

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</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>Sunny</TD><TD>

</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=middle>Feels Like: 73°F</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>

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</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>UV Index:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>4 Moderate</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>

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</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>Wind:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>From the East Southeast at 3 mph</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>

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</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>Dew Point:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>60°F</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>

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</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>Humidity:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>63%</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>

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</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>Visibility:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>10.0 miles</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>

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</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>Pressure:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD class=obsText vAlign=top align=left>30.10 inches and steady</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>

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Louisville
@ Memphis (Schedule)

Friday, October 10, 2008

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Event Day Forecast for Oct. 10