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[VirginiaCavs]

Louisiana vs. Marshall New Orleans Bowl Odds and Picks

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 9:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans

Louisiana's Coaching Situation

Now former Ragin' Cajun head coach Billy Napier accepted an offer from the University of Florida to become the next Gator head coach.

He will therefore not coach Louisiana in Saturday's upcoming bowl game.

Moreover, he is taking some other coaches with him, ultimately creating a messy transitional situation in Louisiana's current program.

Now former Louisiana defensive coordinator and outside linebackers coach Patrick Toney is following Napier to Florida, along with the following other now former Louisiana assistants: offensive analyst Ryan O'Hara, running backs coach Jabbar Juluke, and strength and conditioning coach Mark Hocke.

It is unclear who Louisiana's full-time coaches will be next season except Louisiana has already hired a new head coach, Michael Desormeaux, to replace Napier.

Desormeaux was the team's tight end coach and co-defensive coordinator.

He has merely named interim coaches for this game. Tim Leger will serve as interim offensive coordinator.

Leger has already been with the program for a few years.

Wes Neighbors, however, is a completely new face. The former safeties coach at South Florida will be the interim defensive coordinator.

Coordinators, offensive and defensive, are crucial to the functioning of a team.

This situation reminds me of the 2016 Alamo Bowl between Colorado and Oklahoma State.

Ahead of that game, Colorado's defense had been hugely successful. The Buffaloes lost their defensive coordinator, however, when Jim Leavitt accepted a job at Oregon.

Leavitt was not Colorado's defensive coordinator in the Alamo Bowl and the Buffaloes' defense looked accordingly hapless.

After allowing 182.5 passing yards per game all season, the Buffaloes allowed a single Oklahoma State wide receiver to amass nearly as many yards all by himself by the third quarter before he happened to leave the game with an injury.

Oklahoma State won that contest, nearly dropping 40 points in the process.

Motivation

Besides dealing with a messy coaching situation, I think Louisiana is also disadvantaged by having nothing to gain from this bowl game.

After enjoying a 12-1 season, having to play a 7-5 Conference-USA team must seem like a huge slap in the face.

In terms of team profile, Marshall is rather lame. It surely disappointed Ragin' Cajuns to have to face the Thundering Herd in the New Orleans Bowl.

Conversely, this bowl game presents a great opportunity to the Thundering Herd, who will look to upset a team that made a big splash in the Group of Five world this season.

Motivation is a well-known factor in bowl games. Louisiana's disadvantage in this respect adds to the disadvantage it suffers by having key coaches, especially on defense, depart ahead of this game.

Ali and Wells

Louisiana's regular season stats lose a lot of meaning in this game because of its situation in terms of coaching staff and motivation.

I suspect we'll see something similar to the Colorado defense in the 2016 Alamo Bowl where a strength suddenly becomes a weakness.

The Ragin Cajuns' difficult situation provides a great opportunity for running back Rasheen Ali.

Marshall's running back amassed 1,241 yards on the ground and 20 rushing touchdowns on 5.4 YPC.

For all of his youth, Ali shows great patience and vision as a runner. He will allow lanes to develop in front of him before taking advantage with an agile cut or other skillful movement.

Grant Wells' return at quarterback will be huge for this team, as evident in the 360-degree turn that his departure generated in the team's season finale.

This duo will outpace a Ragin' Cajun offense that will be run-heavy with mobile quarterback Levi Lewis and a committee of running backs going against a Marshall defense that, ranking 32nd nationally in pass defense, is strongest against the pass.

The Verdict

Bowl game intangibles -- the transitional coaching situation and the motivational aspect -- strongly favor Marshall yet, because of what's on paper, the Thundering Herd are underdogs for this contest.

With Wells back at quarterback, Marshall will enjoy a two-dimensional attack, spearheaded by its superb running back, that will outpace Louisiana.

Best Bet: Thundering Herd +6 at -105 with BetOnline

 

[s--k]

I agree that the motivational edge is with Marshall. ULL off their biggest game, a win for the conference championship, HC and some support staff/coaches gone, have won their last two bowls (both non covers) and face a team ULL likely feels they are already better than.

I do not share the feeling that Wells at QB for Marshall is good. Not that they have anybody better that I know about, but Wells seems to lose more games for Marshall than I've seen him win, as in him being the reason they won, rather I see him put Marshall in bad spots. Think Lewis is much better all around QB, not necessarily number wise, but awareness and decision making. Problem for Lewis is that ULL lacks a great offensive supporting cast. #1 RB Smith could be out here, but their freshman RB have emerged nicely so that may or may not matter as much as it could've. If Lewis was the QB on this Marshall team, Marshall might be the 12-1 team and put Wells on ULL and they might be the 7-5 team.

Would still lean Marshall +pts just a little, but fear Wells doing things to lose them the game. Certainly nice year for ULL, but I remember some unimpressive non-covering wins by them. Seems ULL plays best in their biggest games. This would seems to qualify as that, but we also believe that they won't treat it that way or situationally they aren't as well suited to do it. A game vs A game, I'd probably have to assume ULL wins. Our assumption is that we won't get that A game out of ULL, so we'll see.

 

[s--k]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471646498551128064

Max Mitchell at RT is one of the best OL in the Sun Belt (actually PFF calls him Sun Belt O POY!)

NT/DT Tayland Humphrey is another key loss. He is not as highly regarded from a NFL perspective as Mitchell is at RT. But Humphrey has been very disruptive in the middle and his presence is partially the reason why DE Zion Hill enjoys the success he does.

Two pretty significant losses on each side of ULL's LOS

Then, RB Smith and WR LeBlanc are both #1 at their positions.

For Marshall, one of their top interior DL Jemare Edwards has entered the portal earlier this month. I believe that is the only loss for Marshall.
Edit - I just learned DE Owen Porter was ejected for coming off bench during a scuffle last game, it was his second ejection of the season and some speculation that CUSA or NCAA might have some type of half or game suspension. Then DE Sam Burton was carted off field last game with injury. So, Marshall could be down 3 of their DL players pending the status of Burton and Porter. I read they do rotate a lot of their DL, but it isn't necessarily a team strength before the losses.

 

[s--k]

Also, Marshall is going to be playing in the Sun Belt, is it next year? I don't know if they are selling this game internally as kind of a statement game for their entrance into the league, like we are playing the Sun Belt champs we have to set a tone. I did hear some Huff press conference talking about the competition level in the Sun Belt and what they will be facing in the future. I think that could add to the motivational angles benefiting Marshall in this matchup. Coaches can sell that, it's just not some team that doesn't matter that they'll never play again. It's the current champion of next year's conference, almost like they could go into the offseason and start of 2022 season saying they beat the Sun Belt champs in their last game before they play a game as a Sun Belt member.