NCAAF Bowls Parlay for the Week (+271): Houston to Light up Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Houston Cougars
Friday, December 23, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana
Best Bet: Parlay Cougars -7.5 at -106 & Over 56 at -110 at +271 odds with BetOnline
The Importance of Passing to Houston
Houston's offensive success in this game will largely hinge on the success of its pass attack.
The reason for this dependence is that the Cougars are very much a pass-first team.
Nationally, the Cougars owned the 12th-highest pass-play percentage.
To be clear, their running back personnel are fine.
They have a young running back, Brandon Campbell, who transferred from USC and averaged 4.9 YPC this regular season.
But the Cougars' best players are ones who lead their pass attack -- quarterback Clayton Tune and wide receiver Nathaniel Dell.
Accordingly, their offense centers around those two future NFL players.
Louisiana's Pass Defense Quality
Given Houston's emphasis on passing the ball, it is eminently important to know how good the Ragin' Cajun pass defense is.
Nationally, the Ragin' Cajuns ranked 61st in pass defense.
This ranking doesn't seem bad. It says that their pass defense is statistically average.
But, in view of their outlook for this game, their pass defense stats are actually disturbing.
Poorly-Tested Pass Defense
The Ragin' Cajun pass defense stats are disturbing because they were achieved against a level of competition that is vastly inferior to the challenge that Tune and Dell will pose on Friday.
Let's take a look at some of the quarterbacks whom Louisiana encountered during the regular season.
They did face some guys who passed for a lot of yards compared to other Sun Belt quarterbacks.
But pass yardage stats can occasionally be deceiving because, if a quarterback plays in a pass-heavy offense, then it is trivially true that he will get a lot of passing yards regardless of whether he's a good quarterback or not.
This point holds particularly for Georgia Southern quarterback Kyle Vantrease.
Opposing Quarterbacks Faced
The Ragin' Cajuns did get to face Florida State's Jordan Travis.
But the Seminoles were able to ride their rush attack. Travis completed 9 of 14 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.
As measured by passer rating, the Ragin' Cajuns' toughest test was otherwise posed by South Alabama quarterback Carter Bradley.
While he ranked fourth in the conference in passer rating, he ranked 58th nationally in the category.
Tune, for comparison's sake, ranks 36 spots higher in the category than Bradley, and Tune's passer rating is even better than Vantrease's.
But the Ragin' Cajun pass defense also got to face several quarterbacks who rank even much lower in passer rating while also failing to be as remotely productive in terms of passing yards.
If their pass defense was average against the level of competition that they encountered, then Tune is primed to make their pass defense look far below average in the bowl game.
Louisiana Defense's Key Opt-Out
Houston's pass attack appears primed to thrive all the more so because the Ragin' Cajun pass rush will miss a key player.
Pass rush was already a question mark for Louisiana heading into this season because All-Sun Belt pass rusher Chauncey Manac departed from the team and took his 10.5 sacks with him.
This year's Louisiana defense had two players who accrued more than four sacks on the season.
One of those guys is linebacker Andre Jones, who earned 6.5 sacks during the regular season.
Jones declared for the upcoming NFL Draft and opted out of the Bowl Game.
Opposing Wide Receivers Faced
While the Ragin' Cajuns do have a talented cornerback in Eric Garror, his presence has not impeded the Sun Belt's finer wide receivers from exceeding their average yardage total when they faced the Ragin' Cajuns.
Troy's Tez Johnson, for example, ranked seventh in the Sun Belt in receiving yards and caught eight passes for 81 yards in his game against Louisiana.
During the regular season, Louisiana ducked all four Sun Belt wide receivers who amassed over 900 receiving yards.
But they won't duck Dell, who caught 103 passes for 1,354 yards and 15 touchdowns during the season.
Houston's Point Total
Not counting the Florida State game, the Ragin' Cajuns allowed over 30 points on two other occasions -- against Rice and Southern Mississippi.
Houston, meanwhile, scored 30 or more points in nine different games excluding overtime.
One should expect the Cougars to score well above their average against Louisiana's poorly-tested pass defense.
40 is extremely doable for the Cougar offense.
Louisiana's Offensive Outlook
Louisiana will have to pass to keep up.
While Houston ranked 129thnationally in pass defense during the regular season, Louisiana quarterback Chandler Fields is much less productive and efficient than Tune.
Plus, leading wide receiver Michael Jefferson opted out of the game.
No other Louisiana wide receiver accrued as many as 300 receiving yards during the regular season.
Parlay Verdict
While expecting 40 or more points from Houston, I expect just over 20 from the Ragin' Cajuns.
Their pass attack is much more modest, but, especially in a higher-scoring-type game, they'll put up some points against Houston's porous pass defense.
Louisiana will ensure that the game goes 'over' the posted total but won't challenge Houston's cover.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Houston Cougars
Friday, December 23, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana
Best Bet: Parlay Cougars -7.5 at -106 & Over 56 at -110 at +271 odds with BetOnline
The Importance of Passing to Houston
Houston's offensive success in this game will largely hinge on the success of its pass attack.
The reason for this dependence is that the Cougars are very much a pass-first team.
Nationally, the Cougars owned the 12th-highest pass-play percentage.
To be clear, their running back personnel are fine.
They have a young running back, Brandon Campbell, who transferred from USC and averaged 4.9 YPC this regular season.
But the Cougars' best players are ones who lead their pass attack -- quarterback Clayton Tune and wide receiver Nathaniel Dell.
Accordingly, their offense centers around those two future NFL players.
Louisiana's Pass Defense Quality
Given Houston's emphasis on passing the ball, it is eminently important to know how good the Ragin' Cajun pass defense is.
Nationally, the Ragin' Cajuns ranked 61st in pass defense.
This ranking doesn't seem bad. It says that their pass defense is statistically average.
But, in view of their outlook for this game, their pass defense stats are actually disturbing.
Poorly-Tested Pass Defense
The Ragin' Cajun pass defense stats are disturbing because they were achieved against a level of competition that is vastly inferior to the challenge that Tune and Dell will pose on Friday.
Let's take a look at some of the quarterbacks whom Louisiana encountered during the regular season.
They did face some guys who passed for a lot of yards compared to other Sun Belt quarterbacks.
But pass yardage stats can occasionally be deceiving because, if a quarterback plays in a pass-heavy offense, then it is trivially true that he will get a lot of passing yards regardless of whether he's a good quarterback or not.
This point holds particularly for Georgia Southern quarterback Kyle Vantrease.
Opposing Quarterbacks Faced
The Ragin' Cajuns did get to face Florida State's Jordan Travis.
But the Seminoles were able to ride their rush attack. Travis completed 9 of 14 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.
As measured by passer rating, the Ragin' Cajuns' toughest test was otherwise posed by South Alabama quarterback Carter Bradley.
While he ranked fourth in the conference in passer rating, he ranked 58th nationally in the category.
Tune, for comparison's sake, ranks 36 spots higher in the category than Bradley, and Tune's passer rating is even better than Vantrease's.
But the Ragin' Cajun pass defense also got to face several quarterbacks who rank even much lower in passer rating while also failing to be as remotely productive in terms of passing yards.
If their pass defense was average against the level of competition that they encountered, then Tune is primed to make their pass defense look far below average in the bowl game.
Louisiana Defense's Key Opt-Out
Houston's pass attack appears primed to thrive all the more so because the Ragin' Cajun pass rush will miss a key player.
Pass rush was already a question mark for Louisiana heading into this season because All-Sun Belt pass rusher Chauncey Manac departed from the team and took his 10.5 sacks with him.
This year's Louisiana defense had two players who accrued more than four sacks on the season.
One of those guys is linebacker Andre Jones, who earned 6.5 sacks during the regular season.
Jones declared for the upcoming NFL Draft and opted out of the Bowl Game.
Opposing Wide Receivers Faced
While the Ragin' Cajuns do have a talented cornerback in Eric Garror, his presence has not impeded the Sun Belt's finer wide receivers from exceeding their average yardage total when they faced the Ragin' Cajuns.
Troy's Tez Johnson, for example, ranked seventh in the Sun Belt in receiving yards and caught eight passes for 81 yards in his game against Louisiana.
During the regular season, Louisiana ducked all four Sun Belt wide receivers who amassed over 900 receiving yards.
But they won't duck Dell, who caught 103 passes for 1,354 yards and 15 touchdowns during the season.
Houston's Point Total
Not counting the Florida State game, the Ragin' Cajuns allowed over 30 points on two other occasions -- against Rice and Southern Mississippi.
Houston, meanwhile, scored 30 or more points in nine different games excluding overtime.
One should expect the Cougars to score well above their average against Louisiana's poorly-tested pass defense.
40 is extremely doable for the Cougar offense.
Louisiana's Offensive Outlook
Louisiana will have to pass to keep up.
While Houston ranked 129thnationally in pass defense during the regular season, Louisiana quarterback Chandler Fields is much less productive and efficient than Tune.
Plus, leading wide receiver Michael Jefferson opted out of the game.
No other Louisiana wide receiver accrued as many as 300 receiving yards during the regular season.
Parlay Verdict
While expecting 40 or more points from Houston, I expect just over 20 from the Ragin' Cajuns.
Their pass attack is much more modest, but, especially in a higher-scoring-type game, they'll put up some points against Houston's porous pass defense.
Louisiana will ensure that the game goes 'over' the posted total but won't challenge Houston's cover.
