Louisville -19
NC State wins what must've been an exhausting, emotional hurricane game against Notre Dame. Then they go into Death Valley as a 20 point dog, play their hearts out, and lose in OT after missing that short kick at the buzzer. Now they have to recover in time for another road game, this time against a certifiably excellent team that has an extra day of prep and also just played its worst game of the season which ensures motivation. You better believe Louisville will want to beat the shit out of these guys to provide some stark, immediate contrast between themselves and how Clemson just beat them.
Alabama -18.5
These guys have hit a rhythm. Little sloppy against Arkansas, cleaned up a lot of it last week. Now a big statement game for them at home imo. I admit that this isn't so much an "ugly spot" for TAMU, I just think they'll be outclassed here. We know they'll fall behind, and when they do, Trevor Knight will either make bad mistakes or continue missing easy throws. TAMU has a pass rush, but are very susceptible against the run which I expect Bama to exploit early. They'll pick up a lead, then will be able to hit big plays in the air once TAMU sells out against the run, then Knight will make mistakes against a defense that is being told about how he beat them in the past, and on and on it'll go. There'll be spots to fade Bama, but this isn't it. Not in a game this big.
Auburn -10
Arkansas off two body blow games at home against Bama and Ole Miss back to back. Bama killed them, but having watched the game Arky fought until the very last second, that was a 60 minute game they cared a lot about and exerted a lot of energy in. The next week same thing except this time they won as a 7 point dog, setting up the type of spot where they exhale. Now they go on the road for a game against a good, rested Auburn team which runs the kind of offense designed to exploit Arky's holes on the Dline. Much better defense too.
LSU -6
Players seem to love Coach O and I expect them to show up in a big game against his former team. LSU has always had the talent, they just needed to be handled right from Sunday-Friday. Don't know if it'll prove to be true, but they have to believe that everything they want is still out there for the taking. Ole Miss just has the feel of a team ready to let go of the rope, Kelly is not a guy I trust to rally the team in time for this one.
Lean Wazu too, but missed the 7 so I'll wait.
Taking good teams as home favs when the line feels uncomfortable to click submit on is usually profitable, would expect this to go 3/4 on Saturday but hey who really knows.
NC State wins what must've been an exhausting, emotional hurricane game against Notre Dame. Then they go into Death Valley as a 20 point dog, play their hearts out, and lose in OT after missing that short kick at the buzzer. Now they have to recover in time for another road game, this time against a certifiably excellent team that has an extra day of prep and also just played its worst game of the season which ensures motivation. You better believe Louisville will want to beat the shit out of these guys to provide some stark, immediate contrast between themselves and how Clemson just beat them.
Alabama -18.5
These guys have hit a rhythm. Little sloppy against Arkansas, cleaned up a lot of it last week. Now a big statement game for them at home imo. I admit that this isn't so much an "ugly spot" for TAMU, I just think they'll be outclassed here. We know they'll fall behind, and when they do, Trevor Knight will either make bad mistakes or continue missing easy throws. TAMU has a pass rush, but are very susceptible against the run which I expect Bama to exploit early. They'll pick up a lead, then will be able to hit big plays in the air once TAMU sells out against the run, then Knight will make mistakes against a defense that is being told about how he beat them in the past, and on and on it'll go. There'll be spots to fade Bama, but this isn't it. Not in a game this big.
Auburn -10
Arkansas off two body blow games at home against Bama and Ole Miss back to back. Bama killed them, but having watched the game Arky fought until the very last second, that was a 60 minute game they cared a lot about and exerted a lot of energy in. The next week same thing except this time they won as a 7 point dog, setting up the type of spot where they exhale. Now they go on the road for a game against a good, rested Auburn team which runs the kind of offense designed to exploit Arky's holes on the Dline. Much better defense too.
LSU -6
Players seem to love Coach O and I expect them to show up in a big game against his former team. LSU has always had the talent, they just needed to be handled right from Sunday-Friday. Don't know if it'll prove to be true, but they have to believe that everything they want is still out there for the taking. Ole Miss just has the feel of a team ready to let go of the rope, Kelly is not a guy I trust to rally the team in time for this one.
Lean Wazu too, but missed the 7 so I'll wait.
Taking good teams as home favs when the line feels uncomfortable to click submit on is usually profitable, would expect this to go 3/4 on Saturday but hey who really knows.
