BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Under 194.5
- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores, unless otherwise noted.
Los Angeles
- is U/O 8-3 at an average of 188.1 points when winning SU, as opposed to U/O 3-3 (5 pts off 1-5) at an average of 192.6 points when losing SU, @home vs non-divisional opponents this season.
- is U/O 6-2 at an average of 187.6 points in ATS home wins as the Fav, as opposed to U/O 3-4 at an average of 192.8 points in ATS losses as the Fav, @home vs non-divisional opponents this season. Since losing Redd, Milwaukee has had 5 of 6 losses by 9+ point margins - this spread opened at 9.5.
- is U/O 4-0 at an average of 179.2 points when winning a 3rd consecutive game this season. LA has 2 straight wins headed into this game.
- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 184.3 points when winning SU, as opposed to U/O 1-5 at an average of 197.1 points when losing SU, off 2+ days rest this season.
- is U/O 2-1 (2 pts off 3-0) at an average of 186.3 points coming off consecutive games that totaled 200+ points in reg., this season. Their last 2 games have totaled 224 & 205 points.
- has had 3 straight games total 200+ points in regulation, for the first time this season. For all of last season, they only managed this feat twice - in both instances, their next 3 games all went Under.
Milwaukee
- is U/O 5-1 at an average of 187.0 points in ATS losses, as opposed to U/O 1-1 at an average of 192.0 points in ATS wins, in games Williams and/or Redd have missed this season. Since losing Redd, has had 5 of 6 losses by 9+ point margins - this spread opened at 9.5.
- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 182.0 points coming off a game that totaled 190+ points, since losing Redd. Naturally offensive consistency has been an issue ever since Redd joined Williams on the injured list. Their last game totaled 194 points.
- has held 4 straight opponents under 100 points, where prior to Redd being injured hadnt gone more than 2 straight games managing that feat. Dare one suggest MIL is playing a little more defense in light of their losses in order to remain competitive (if only for however long)?
This season I'm 4-1 in Clipper totals, my only loss a winner in regulation that was subjected to a visit from the overtime Moose. Only one of those bets was an Over bet, since I usually look for Unders when considering this team. And when they're playing at home with the likely prospect of posting up a W, thats when I really start to look hard. Here they're in such a spot, also matched by recent heavy overall scoring in their games - another fact that would key my paying special attention to a potential Under for them. The fact they're facing a team missing 2 key components that had them create the heaviest Over biased record in the NBA and that that record has since taken a severe dip because of those losses, means I cant ignore playing Under here.
The line has risen since I posted this thread, so I have to wonder about Mo Williams availability. Rototimes says late January, which is exactly where we're at. I can't see any other basis for this line to rise, unless people are over reading the Clippers recent totals. If I thought for sure this game was a potential 170s contest I'd place a normal sized bet, but LA will get their points in such a big game (GDS & MIN lost yesterday, and 8th spot in the West is down to between these 3 teams) so I'm projecting LA puts up 100 and MIL gets 85-90. Under 194.5 for a small bet.
- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores, unless otherwise noted.
Los Angeles
- is U/O 8-3 at an average of 188.1 points when winning SU, as opposed to U/O 3-3 (5 pts off 1-5) at an average of 192.6 points when losing SU, @home vs non-divisional opponents this season.
- is U/O 6-2 at an average of 187.6 points in ATS home wins as the Fav, as opposed to U/O 3-4 at an average of 192.8 points in ATS losses as the Fav, @home vs non-divisional opponents this season. Since losing Redd, Milwaukee has had 5 of 6 losses by 9+ point margins - this spread opened at 9.5.
- is U/O 4-0 at an average of 179.2 points when winning a 3rd consecutive game this season. LA has 2 straight wins headed into this game.
- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 184.3 points when winning SU, as opposed to U/O 1-5 at an average of 197.1 points when losing SU, off 2+ days rest this season.
- is U/O 2-1 (2 pts off 3-0) at an average of 186.3 points coming off consecutive games that totaled 200+ points in reg., this season. Their last 2 games have totaled 224 & 205 points.
- has had 3 straight games total 200+ points in regulation, for the first time this season. For all of last season, they only managed this feat twice - in both instances, their next 3 games all went Under.
Milwaukee
- is U/O 5-1 at an average of 187.0 points in ATS losses, as opposed to U/O 1-1 at an average of 192.0 points in ATS wins, in games Williams and/or Redd have missed this season. Since losing Redd, has had 5 of 6 losses by 9+ point margins - this spread opened at 9.5.
- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 182.0 points coming off a game that totaled 190+ points, since losing Redd. Naturally offensive consistency has been an issue ever since Redd joined Williams on the injured list. Their last game totaled 194 points.
- has held 4 straight opponents under 100 points, where prior to Redd being injured hadnt gone more than 2 straight games managing that feat. Dare one suggest MIL is playing a little more defense in light of their losses in order to remain competitive (if only for however long)?
This season I'm 4-1 in Clipper totals, my only loss a winner in regulation that was subjected to a visit from the overtime Moose. Only one of those bets was an Over bet, since I usually look for Unders when considering this team. And when they're playing at home with the likely prospect of posting up a W, thats when I really start to look hard. Here they're in such a spot, also matched by recent heavy overall scoring in their games - another fact that would key my paying special attention to a potential Under for them. The fact they're facing a team missing 2 key components that had them create the heaviest Over biased record in the NBA and that that record has since taken a severe dip because of those losses, means I cant ignore playing Under here.
The line has risen since I posted this thread, so I have to wonder about Mo Williams availability. Rototimes says late January, which is exactly where we're at. I can't see any other basis for this line to rise, unless people are over reading the Clippers recent totals. If I thought for sure this game was a potential 170s contest I'd place a normal sized bet, but LA will get their points in such a big game (GDS & MIN lost yesterday, and 8th spot in the West is down to between these 3 teams) so I'm projecting LA puts up 100 and MIL gets 85-90. Under 194.5 for a small bet.
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