Looking for week 2 help

[ChristianFro]

So,

Im in this football pool. You have to choose 1 team to straight up win every week. Catch is once you use a team, you can no longer use them again the rest of the year. AND if you lose ONCE you're OUT!! Buy-In was 50 bucks and there were almost 400 people. Winner takes all. I think the pot was close to 17 grand. Anyways...something like 96 people went out week 1 with Sand Diego and Indy picks. I had Phily, so on to week 2. The way I have been trying to go about this is to look at the entire season for each team and find their top 3 spots. Not so hard to do with your elite teams, but again, you can only use each team once. So this week, just looking at opening lines, I am see 4 possible plays. I am looking for any advice from anyone on these games. I dont make plays based solely on trends but if anyone has any trends on these games, or a site to find them, it would help make me feel better about a pick....

Here we go.

So without doing much research, just looking at the Greek.....

NY Giants - 8 1/2
@ St. Louis Rams

Giants didn't impress me much, but then again, neither did St. Louis. I know the Rams are supposedly healthier this year and they are tough on turf and at home. Thinking Im gonna stay away from this.

Buffalo Bills
@ Jacksonville Jags -6

Buffalo looked pretty good against Seattle, and the Jags still need to get rolling. Plus Im not sure this is the best spot for the Jags, might save them for a later pick.

Atlanta Falcons
@ Tampa Bay Buc's -7 1/2

Liked the way the Buc's looked Sunday, but Atlanta wasn't too bad either, it was the Lion's, I know. This could be my play next week......

San Francisco 49ers
@ Seattle Seahawks -7 1/2

I should have paid more attention to this line. I wanna say it opened at 9. I didn't like it then, I dont like it now. This is one of those places I want to see the trends. Don't the 49ers play Seattle pretty tough? Plus, I really didn't like the way they looked in Buffalo. Probably going to wait and see what kind of team Seattle really is this year.

Miami Dolphins
@ Arizona Cardinals -7

Another good possibility for this week. Pennington looked horrible and if I gotta find a spot to pick Arizona this year, this might be their best spot.

Any thoughts guys???

 

[brewer]

stay far away from jack

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

Agree on avoiding JAX, they've got some figuring out to do. Like ARI here most on your card, if only because I think MIA is a miserable team. Followed strongly by SEA:

Don't know what the ATS results were, if someone wants to chime in with that info (I just got these numbers from NFL.com)

SEA v. SF (last 10 meetings)

@ SF - W 23-3
v. SF - W 24-0
@ SF - L 14-20
v. SF - L 14-24
@ SF - W 27-25
v. SF - W 41-3
v. SF - W 34-0
@ SF - W 42-27
v. SF - W 20-19
@ SF - W 24-17

Trends v SF:
8-2 SU in last 10
4-1 SU at home (outscoring SF 133 to 46; shutting them out twice)
Avg Team Total at home = 26.6pts.
Avg SF Total @ SEA = 9.2pts.

The last time two times SF beat SEA were in 2006. Brief recap of those two game:

SAN FRAN; NOVEMBER 19, 2006

Alex Smith passed for 163 yds, 1 TD, 1 Rush TD
F. Gore rushed for 201 yds. (130 in first half)
SF lead 20-0 at half time

Seneca Wallace passed for 239 yds, 2 TDs, 3 INTs; one coming late in the 4th to completely destroy any hopes of a comeback.
Hasslebeck and Alexander both coming off of injuries (Alexander, who hadn't played in two months, managed just 37 yards on 17 carries in his first game back from a broken foot.)
Three critical 3 & outs for SEA in final 4 1/2 min of regulation.

Lesson: Turnovers key in 49ers' 20-14 victory

Note: At halftime, the 49ers held an official retirement ceremony for receiver Jerry Rice with the club that was his home for 16 of his 20 record-setting NFL seasons. (MORALE BOOST)

------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE; DECEMBER 14, 2006

Alex Smith orchestrates a career highlight 4th quarter to come back and defeat SEA. 162 Yds, 2 TDs, 1 Rush TD. All three coming in the 4th qtr:

Smith tossed an 8-yard touchdown pass to Vernon Davis early in the fourth quarter, then capped a 10-play, 73-yard drive with a 20-yard TD pass to Gore with 4:01 left.

If his fourth-quarter passing wasn't enough, Smith faked the entire Seattle defense and jogged 18 yards for a touchdown with 1:42 left to cap a night when he looked just a little like Steve Young and Joe Montana.

The 49ers rolled up 196 yards in the fourth quarter.

Gore, who ran for a franchise record 212 yards in the first meeting between the two teams, had 104 of his 144 yards in the fourth quarter.

Matt Hasselbeck threw a 22-yard touchdown to Jerramy Stevens with nine seconds left for the final margin, but Hasselbeck was outplayed by Smith.

Hasselbeck finished 20 of 37 for 220 yards, but threw a pair of interceptions, the most damaging on the first possession of the second half.

Lesson: Turnovers, weather, and lack of 4th Qtr. Defense key in 49ers' 24-14 victory

Note: A heavy rainstorm moved in shortly before kickoff leaving standing water on the field and momentarily knocking out power to the video screens in the stadium. The worst of the storm subsided during the game.

(SEA thought they had the win wrapped up, seemed to have just given up in 4th. Weather affected Hasslebeck's ability to go over top and open run game for Alexander)

------------------------------------------------------------------

You can draw most of your own conclusions from those two games. Other than that, SEA has been pretty dominant over SF, especially at home.

Both of these teams are turn-over prone, and if I've heard it once, I've heard it 1000 times, you can't cap for turnovers. Hasslebeck is guarenteed to throw at least 1 INT. So is O'Sullivan. Gore has butter fingers (13 fumbles in 4 years, 1 already this season).

Ultimatley, it's up to you. But turnovers aside, and assuming both teams make mistakes, SEA @ home is always a good bet against division rivals.

 

[ChristianFro]

Thanks Jackal, Hadn't given much thought to Seattle, but will definately look at this game more

 

[SportsNut]

To be honest all I would consider of the group you listed is TB . Really so many bad games out there for a survivor pool . I would actually say that while risky Houston Texans seems like a good play to me . Its tough with so much on the line ....

I remember being like 24,25 yrs old in a survival pool at work . Dont remember the fee but it was something in the 12-15K payout . There were 4 of us left at the end of the year and they extended to the playoffs think I lost in the AFC championship ....That type of cash was real nice back then as it was a decade ago..so I know the pain of this weekly decision ...

GL:cheers:try to add some better info but later in trhe week

 

[txtennisboy]

Houston at home....they could not have played any worse last sunday at Pitt....i would consider them or maybe Minnesota at home with their stellar deeeee.....Peyton is not Peyton...Harrison is not Harrison...Indy is on the decline

 

[wizardofodd]

i would take either the giants or airzona, save indi and the chargers for other weeks as they tend to get better later on during the year.

 

[deuce's wild]

I am in one myself and leaning towards NYG, TB or Zona. It is a tough week a lot of the better teams are playing against each other.

 

[frankiegotti]

Browns ML.

 

[choose68]

Im also in a survivor league and all the matchups this week are really close so expect alot of people to drop. Anyway Tampa or Arizona is who Im most likely going with

 

[ChristianFro]

Thanks for all the insight guys. I am going with Arizona this week. Hope Pennington looks as bad this week as he did last week. Sitting over here in Iraq, this game doesn't start until like 11 pm here. So It's gonna be a late night. Blehq!! GL this weekend everyone.

:shake:

 

[Clyde]

I would be very cautious with Zona. They were outgained by SF last week. Not sure why they were so horrendous on offense but you never know what Warner will do. 3 picks and a fumble, who knows..

Miami looked a lot better in the 2nd half against the Jets. Take away the fluke TD by Favre and Miami probably wins the game.

It seems the top choices for the suicide leagues are: Giants, Seattle, Cards, and Bucs.

Good luck.. I took Tampa Bay for my league.. Rookie QB on the road against a pissed off TB defense. Plus, TB has Chicago and GB coming up. They need this W..