Interesting week for sure . Think 7-6 ATS but most of my losses were either stupidity or flipping from my original lean .
Naturally SF game was painful to lose on a safety but truth is I thought game was marginal and would have been better served to just play the fade West Coast teams coming East angle. Same goes for SD as I was on Buffalo all week until last yesterday . SD handed that game to Buffalo . Why are throwing on 1st down when they are 9 yards away from the winning or at least go ahead TD ? Why did they punt on 4th and 1 at the Buffalo 40 with about 12 minutes to play ? You have LT and you fear gaining a yard ? Bitter because I flipped from Buffalo and SD if they executed better in the 4th Q win . Stupid for playing Dallas which I had no intention but talked myself into when I saw Pace was OUT . Just didnt expect that type game from a vet in Brad Johnson . The other silly losses were games I kinda new were going to get ugly yet fired away at them anyway . KC and CIncy . Of course the spreads look high but the offenses are so bad . KC actually played fairly well in the 1st H until Novak missed a 39yd FG as they had moved the ball but were 4th and 1 often to that point . KC defense wasnt bad as they scored on a 49yd FG and short field after KC holding penalty had the Cheifs backed up with .
Of course my KILLER loss was Houston which I started the week out thinking DET or pass . Like I said Houston is flawed to being laying big chalk . Hit the 1st H and even had small 2nd H plays on Det and over as I knew the big play to CJ before half was trouble. Killed on a 96 yd TD withabout 10 to play followed by a stupid fucking late hit on the next possession when they were again stuck Det at there own 3 . 1st and 3 they hand it off for no gain but 15 yd penalty gets them out of harms way and they and a 54 yd FG to bust me . Worse part is had Hou -10 / Under 48.5 parlayed along with Det UND 18 TT so rather then CRUSH that game I got crushed ......Thats what happen when your always rushing ....
So what happened ?
It's obvious Seattle , Cincy and KC are really bad on offense mostly due to QB play . My issue with backing Cincy and KC today is they had played so well as big dogs in the past I knew this was a terrible spot for both facing TOUGH defenses .
SD finds ways to lose ... Car on the last play , Denver on the last play , stopped on the goal line @ Miami fall by a TD and 1st and goal at the 9 they get picked off on 1st down ! Bills sort of the opposite pulling out this , Oak and @ Jax . However expect Buffalo to lose @ Miami next week. Balts defense is real tough obviously and the pick 6 changed the game . Bills banged up and think Miami bounces back plus weather hopefully as cold weather teams plays in Miami ....
Saints didnt make some key plays sort of like SD and lost . Early fumbles gives CAR short field and leads to a TD , Bush gets hurt in the 1st H doesnt return , rare Brees INT gives CAR short field for a TD , TOD inside the CAR 2 and Panthers take it the other way for a FG ... interesting to see who bounces back @ London......CAR off a tough loss defended home field IMO like I expected .....
STrange game @ CHI . Crazy high scoring as well and this time Minny didnt get the breaks. Though special teams woul play a role but not punt blocks. Bears had no healthy starters in the secondary . Just sloppy all around with ints and fumbles but impressive in how the offenses moved it . Vikes had 13 possessions but 1 punt ....
Pitt and Tenny cruise but both teams were in close games till late . Well Tenny was up 20-0 then doors blew off . Cincy was down 17-7 inside the Pitt 10 and settled for just 3 . Then 17-10 again in Pitt territory near the 40 they failed to convert and punted . Pitt slowly moved the ball to the 50 and then Ben hit Washinton for a 50yd TD pass ....iced ....last 2 TDS were 14 and 34 yd drives ..KC missed 2 1st H FGS which could have kept them in it at 17-6 but just to much defense and not enough execution they had alot of chances early but nothing came of them....Both are terrible and really not worth betting ....
Balt was a layup today as the line was a full 3 points off . Miami is improved but they are not as good as Balt . Ravens did well controlling the clock and hodling onto the ball with long drives . Only mistake the fumble inside the Miami 5 yd line . Miami mistake was the pick 6 but also settling for FGs in the 1st H twice ..
SF would have been in the game if they did not fuck up so much granted the score looks close but they had a FG block for a TD . 14-10 with 3 minutes before half and SF backed up . They get picked on 1st down . I never understand why bad teams dont simply play it safe when backed up and involved in a close game . Somehow SF holds them to 3 pts . SO 17-10 and still alive they move into NYG red zone . Again FG attempt secured to get the 3 pts back and O'Sullivan picked inside 20seconds of left ..1st possession 2nd H and SF fumbles leading to a NYG TD . The 2 TD lead is halved on the FG block but SF offense never really threatened in the 2nd H and in a 10 pt game a safety proved to be the margin . NY did not look good with alot of short drives for points. NYG 279 total yards only 161 passing .......
Dallas just awful. They jump out 7-0 and then Avery catches a 40yd TD but then consecutive turnovers give STL short fields and later TDs . That quick 7-0 was equally as quick 21-7 STL . Rams did just enough all game and DAL self destrutced over and over . Blowing chances to make it a game in the 2nd H ...Boys are in trouble ......Roy Williams hurt again and the new ROy Williams barely played.....Impressedby Rams heart more then anything obviously they hated HC Linehan because the difference in effort is huge.....
Houston same old Texans . They jumped out like expected as they pulled out a WIN and DET was off a heartbreaker . Texans 1st 3 drives all TDs and headed for #4 then fumbled and thats where the game changed . Up 21-3 about to be up 28-3 and they fumbled with Det hitting CJ before half with a huge play . To stat the 2nd H a penalty fucked Houston and allowed Det great field position after a punt which lead to a quick Det TD now 21-10 . Texans take it all the way to thehouse on a long slow drive and make it 28-10 . Det ball quick punt andHous runs a few plays and punts . Only 12 left up 28-10 and pinned Det at the 4 yd line . Of course 1st play a 96 yd TD to CJ and we have a game and worse Det goes for 2 ! Well they have to but they dont convert but a penalty makes them replay an dof course they get it now . Same deal with Houston they always fuck up at some point . Of cousre Hous runs a few plays and chews up a few minutes but punts .
So 28-18 great drive starting at there 3 yd line this time . 1st down they run it for no gain but 15 yd penalty (face mask , late hit whatever who cares) , then its 3rd and 19 from teh 20 yd line and Furrey picks up 23 . Right there ya know Hou is toast . Then 2nd and 3 form the 50 and yep another 15 yd penalty to put it at the 31 . Somehow HOu gets a 3rd sack and drops Det back 8 yards to the 37 but Hanson hits a 54 yder ....all HOU bets up in smoke .......and the UNDER .......and TT under .....frustrating
So explain how Indy is favored @ GB ? This line was so crazy I was scared to play it . I eventually had GB +3 and +3.5 at home . So Addai is out and obviously Sanders not around so how Indy is favored I dont know . Well guess the Balt beatdown had something to do with it except the lines were similiar despite travel factor ...GB did what it had to and Peyton thought he was ELI throwing TOW pick 6s when his team was about to score ........think COlts also had 2 TDS caleed back due to penalty....
Just crazy how bad the Jets andOAK offenses are . At times OAK moves the ball but 85% of the time they looked horrible . Whether to conservative , bad throws , bad drops ....Jets just no deep threat on offense keeps there offense so bunched up . Late Brad Smith almost broke a few plays but playmakers just not there @ WR , TE or RB....
CLEhadthere chances late but couldnt pull it out missing the game tying FG late. Just alot of miscues by CLE who hung tough even after the big MNF win ....Skins just another blah offense ........think DET may get win #1 vs Wash ......
TB vs SEA only 10 pt margin but really was domination.....TB just not built to blow out teams as ther offense sputtered 3 x in the 1st H costing them 14 more points ....
We learned that DAL is in trouble , Wash is indeed overrated , Home field is huge with home teams going 10-3 SU , STL will at leas bring it each week and Donnie Avery is emrging 42yd TD and another called back due to penalty , IND -NO-CLE still have alot of work to do on offense , KC -Cincy-SEA seasons are definetly lost due to QB injury and Taylor Thigpen does not belong in the NFL if he starts I fade , NYG plaued w/o 2 starting linebackers , Bears need CBs , so does STL and DAL actually but add Buffalo into the walking wounded category , Reggie Bush is out a month , Aaron Rodgers is hurt but not effecting his play , Houston is talented but look like a SP who has good stuff and cant figure out why they lose ( think Mike Morgan !) ,.......INJURIES are a huge issue for many teams ....
Lions get win #1 in week 8 .....:cheers:
Naturally SF game was painful to lose on a safety but truth is I thought game was marginal and would have been better served to just play the fade West Coast teams coming East angle. Same goes for SD as I was on Buffalo all week until last yesterday . SD handed that game to Buffalo . Why are throwing on 1st down when they are 9 yards away from the winning or at least go ahead TD ? Why did they punt on 4th and 1 at the Buffalo 40 with about 12 minutes to play ? You have LT and you fear gaining a yard ? Bitter because I flipped from Buffalo and SD if they executed better in the 4th Q win . Stupid for playing Dallas which I had no intention but talked myself into when I saw Pace was OUT . Just didnt expect that type game from a vet in Brad Johnson . The other silly losses were games I kinda new were going to get ugly yet fired away at them anyway . KC and CIncy . Of course the spreads look high but the offenses are so bad . KC actually played fairly well in the 1st H until Novak missed a 39yd FG as they had moved the ball but were 4th and 1 often to that point . KC defense wasnt bad as they scored on a 49yd FG and short field after KC holding penalty had the Cheifs backed up with .
Of course my KILLER loss was Houston which I started the week out thinking DET or pass . Like I said Houston is flawed to being laying big chalk . Hit the 1st H and even had small 2nd H plays on Det and over as I knew the big play to CJ before half was trouble. Killed on a 96 yd TD withabout 10 to play followed by a stupid fucking late hit on the next possession when they were again stuck Det at there own 3 . 1st and 3 they hand it off for no gain but 15 yd penalty gets them out of harms way and they and a 54 yd FG to bust me . Worse part is had Hou -10 / Under 48.5 parlayed along with Det UND 18 TT so rather then CRUSH that game I got crushed ......Thats what happen when your always rushing ....
So what happened ?
It's obvious Seattle , Cincy and KC are really bad on offense mostly due to QB play . My issue with backing Cincy and KC today is they had played so well as big dogs in the past I knew this was a terrible spot for both facing TOUGH defenses .
SD finds ways to lose ... Car on the last play , Denver on the last play , stopped on the goal line @ Miami fall by a TD and 1st and goal at the 9 they get picked off on 1st down ! Bills sort of the opposite pulling out this , Oak and @ Jax . However expect Buffalo to lose @ Miami next week. Balts defense is real tough obviously and the pick 6 changed the game . Bills banged up and think Miami bounces back plus weather hopefully as cold weather teams plays in Miami ....
Saints didnt make some key plays sort of like SD and lost . Early fumbles gives CAR short field and leads to a TD , Bush gets hurt in the 1st H doesnt return , rare Brees INT gives CAR short field for a TD , TOD inside the CAR 2 and Panthers take it the other way for a FG ... interesting to see who bounces back @ London......CAR off a tough loss defended home field IMO like I expected .....
STrange game @ CHI . Crazy high scoring as well and this time Minny didnt get the breaks. Though special teams woul play a role but not punt blocks. Bears had no healthy starters in the secondary . Just sloppy all around with ints and fumbles but impressive in how the offenses moved it . Vikes had 13 possessions but 1 punt ....
Pitt and Tenny cruise but both teams were in close games till late . Well Tenny was up 20-0 then doors blew off . Cincy was down 17-7 inside the Pitt 10 and settled for just 3 . Then 17-10 again in Pitt territory near the 40 they failed to convert and punted . Pitt slowly moved the ball to the 50 and then Ben hit Washinton for a 50yd TD pass ....iced ....last 2 TDS were 14 and 34 yd drives ..KC missed 2 1st H FGS which could have kept them in it at 17-6 but just to much defense and not enough execution they had alot of chances early but nothing came of them....Both are terrible and really not worth betting ....
Balt was a layup today as the line was a full 3 points off . Miami is improved but they are not as good as Balt . Ravens did well controlling the clock and hodling onto the ball with long drives . Only mistake the fumble inside the Miami 5 yd line . Miami mistake was the pick 6 but also settling for FGs in the 1st H twice ..
SF would have been in the game if they did not fuck up so much granted the score looks close but they had a FG block for a TD . 14-10 with 3 minutes before half and SF backed up . They get picked on 1st down . I never understand why bad teams dont simply play it safe when backed up and involved in a close game . Somehow SF holds them to 3 pts . SO 17-10 and still alive they move into NYG red zone . Again FG attempt secured to get the 3 pts back and O'Sullivan picked inside 20seconds of left ..1st possession 2nd H and SF fumbles leading to a NYG TD . The 2 TD lead is halved on the FG block but SF offense never really threatened in the 2nd H and in a 10 pt game a safety proved to be the margin . NY did not look good with alot of short drives for points. NYG 279 total yards only 161 passing .......
Dallas just awful. They jump out 7-0 and then Avery catches a 40yd TD but then consecutive turnovers give STL short fields and later TDs . That quick 7-0 was equally as quick 21-7 STL . Rams did just enough all game and DAL self destrutced over and over . Blowing chances to make it a game in the 2nd H ...Boys are in trouble ......Roy Williams hurt again and the new ROy Williams barely played.....Impressedby Rams heart more then anything obviously they hated HC Linehan because the difference in effort is huge.....
Houston same old Texans . They jumped out like expected as they pulled out a WIN and DET was off a heartbreaker . Texans 1st 3 drives all TDs and headed for #4 then fumbled and thats where the game changed . Up 21-3 about to be up 28-3 and they fumbled with Det hitting CJ before half with a huge play . To stat the 2nd H a penalty fucked Houston and allowed Det great field position after a punt which lead to a quick Det TD now 21-10 . Texans take it all the way to thehouse on a long slow drive and make it 28-10 . Det ball quick punt andHous runs a few plays and punts . Only 12 left up 28-10 and pinned Det at the 4 yd line . Of course 1st play a 96 yd TD to CJ and we have a game and worse Det goes for 2 ! Well they have to but they dont convert but a penalty makes them replay an dof course they get it now . Same deal with Houston they always fuck up at some point . Of cousre Hous runs a few plays and chews up a few minutes but punts .
So 28-18 great drive starting at there 3 yd line this time . 1st down they run it for no gain but 15 yd penalty (face mask , late hit whatever who cares) , then its 3rd and 19 from teh 20 yd line and Furrey picks up 23 . Right there ya know Hou is toast . Then 2nd and 3 form the 50 and yep another 15 yd penalty to put it at the 31 . Somehow HOu gets a 3rd sack and drops Det back 8 yards to the 37 but Hanson hits a 54 yder ....all HOU bets up in smoke .......and the UNDER .......and TT under .....frustrating
So explain how Indy is favored @ GB ? This line was so crazy I was scared to play it . I eventually had GB +3 and +3.5 at home . So Addai is out and obviously Sanders not around so how Indy is favored I dont know . Well guess the Balt beatdown had something to do with it except the lines were similiar despite travel factor ...GB did what it had to and Peyton thought he was ELI throwing TOW pick 6s when his team was about to score ........think COlts also had 2 TDS caleed back due to penalty....
Just crazy how bad the Jets andOAK offenses are . At times OAK moves the ball but 85% of the time they looked horrible . Whether to conservative , bad throws , bad drops ....Jets just no deep threat on offense keeps there offense so bunched up . Late Brad Smith almost broke a few plays but playmakers just not there @ WR , TE or RB....
CLEhadthere chances late but couldnt pull it out missing the game tying FG late. Just alot of miscues by CLE who hung tough even after the big MNF win ....Skins just another blah offense ........think DET may get win #1 vs Wash ......
TB vs SEA only 10 pt margin but really was domination.....TB just not built to blow out teams as ther offense sputtered 3 x in the 1st H costing them 14 more points ....
We learned that DAL is in trouble , Wash is indeed overrated , Home field is huge with home teams going 10-3 SU , STL will at leas bring it each week and Donnie Avery is emrging 42yd TD and another called back due to penalty , IND -NO-CLE still have alot of work to do on offense , KC -Cincy-SEA seasons are definetly lost due to QB injury and Taylor Thigpen does not belong in the NFL if he starts I fade , NYG plaued w/o 2 starting linebackers , Bears need CBs , so does STL and DAL actually but add Buffalo into the walking wounded category , Reggie Bush is out a month , Aaron Rodgers is hurt but not effecting his play , Houston is talented but look like a SP who has good stuff and cant figure out why they lose ( think Mike Morgan !) ,.......INJURIES are a huge issue for many teams ....
Lions get win #1 in week 8 .....:cheers:
opcorn:
