Looking ahead to NFL 2009 - AFC

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
As promised, part two, the AFC.

I'm going to start out West, not because they earned it, but because I can't in good conscious see forcing myself to kick things off in the South or the East.

AFC WEST

Overall, possibly look to overs. Oakland and Denver were the worst in points allowed in the AFC.

Kansas City
Entirely new coaching staff
Who the hell knows who their QB's going to be, whether they'll draft one or not, but how about this. The Kansas City Chiefs had 10 fewer sacks, as a team than DeMarcus Ware. They had fewer team sacks than not one, not two, but ELEVEN individuals including former Chief Jarred Allen.

That ain't good.

Neither is the fact that they couldn't average 20 points per game. They actually couldn't average 19.

Here's what I want to know, however, about them. Is their offensive line getting any better or does it have the potential to be even average this year? (Although, thankfully for them they play in the AFC West where only Oakland is even decent at generating sacks).

LJ will probably be gone. Will Gonzo? Truly, they strike me is in the same position as the Lions simply because they're changing the entire organization and they have so many questions at key positions, RB, WR, QB--their entire defense.

San Diego
I actually think one of the biggest things SD will do this off-season, they've already done and nobody will talk about. Rob Chudzinski came back to SD as a TE/Assist. Head Coach. I personally pay zero attention to that TE coach position. I think so long as their OC doesn't get in the way, Chud basically helps run that offense--and the last time he was out there was when that SD offense was ripping it up. I actually think this is going to help this team offensively significantly so long as the O-line holds up.

As for LT, I will be interested to see what they do with him, but I kind of don't think it matters much either way, because without a quality FB LT can't put up good numbers. I also think they'll find a way to keep Sproles (who, other than Mike Goff is their only real FA) and even if they trade LT they'll be OK at RB.

I want to see how Merriman comes back (he is coming back, right?) and what they do on defense. This was one of the worst statistical defenses in the league, and they were in the bottom third of the league in sacks.

All I know is that this defense only scares me individually in spots, not as a unit.

Another issue for this team, they don't seem to have a second round draft pick, so they better be right with pick number 16.

Oakland
New-ish coaching staff.
Cable's not new, but they lose their DC to the World Renowned Cleveland Browns.
Again, here's another defense that only scares me in spots, not as a whole. They have probably the best corner in all of the AFC if not the league who they seem to be ready to franchise again so he doesn't leave.

But what are they going to do about their other FAs?
Shane Lechler (laugh if you want, but this guy's a pretty damn good punter and as bad as this offense has been they need all the field position they can get)
Jake Grove (C)
Rashad Baker (S)

Their new coach recently said they want their passing game to actually have a pulse for the first time in like eight years, which is a nice idea, but if that's going to happen they're going to need to import some talent. So the draft will be interesting. They averaged less than 17 points per game last year for crying out loud.

Speaking of interesting, it really doesn't mean anything for 2009, but Jake Grove probably had my favorite quote of anybody about their new coach, "When Lane quit on this team at about Week 1, and for him to come in and set a standard and hold us to that. ... I'd love to see him here as coach." Classic kick in the nuts to the guy who's gone.

Denver
Entirely new staff, including Nolan at DC.
Here's a team I know things about by proxy. Joe Public Sr. is a huge Bronco fan, so Joe Jr. is subjected to a lot of Bronco talk. Too much, really.

The Broncos are hell bent on changing to the 3-4, which is nice, but they don't have the players for it. Of course, they didn't really have the players for the 4-3 based on their performance so maybe it won't be so bad. But it will likely significantly impact their draft.

Which is fine, but I think they need O-line help or at least depth as well. I know that's odd to say when they gave up the fewest sacks in the league, but their starting center (Weiggman) is 35, he's replacing Tom Nalen who just retired in January. Then there's Hamilton who'll be in season 11. The rest of it, though, you have to like with the two youngsters, Kuper and Clady.

Then there's the fact that they put something like seven different running backs on IR this year. Arguably none of them all that good in the first place.

I also think they need another WR and a TE wouldn't hurt as Graham, to me, is on the downside of his career.

Basically I think they're wholesale changing their defense so I'll look at the draft, but I want to see pre-season and what's really going on with this team. For a couple of reasons.

First, because if they just concentrate on their defense, I'm not sold that they're going to be able to repeat their points per game average from last year.

Second, every year for the past, well, too many this is a team whose defense starts somewhat strong and gets progressively worse and worse. Last year they were 24th or worse in 16 different defensive categories. If they've got people playing out of position all year that might not get all that much better.


AFC SOUTH

Indy
New-ish staff
Now, they completely promoted from within. But the interesting thing about this is, when interviewed, Manning said even he wasn't so sure what he was going to get this year. Of course, some of that's probably bulls**t. Peyton's going to run what Peyton runs.

My questions on this team really are only these. How healthy will their O-line be and what are they doing to upgrade on defense, particuarly the D-line. That's all I want to know. Because as long as you're looking at Manning, Wayne, Clark, Gonzalez, and Addai, their offense doesn't really worry me much.

Their only real big FA, to me, is Jeff Saturday, but you can franchise him if you really want because unless you're freaking out about losing Dominick Rhodes, you aren't going to use it on anybody else.

Houston
New DC and DL coaches
Everybody seems to want to like this team, I don't mean here, I mean media-wise. And they have some talent, but let's look at the team on the field. Their turnover ratio sucks (still), their pass rush sucks (still), and though they've got potential they're in a really difficult division. If you can't get a pass rush, in this division, Manning will kill you, even Collins will eat you up.

They could lose Daunta Robinson (CB) to free agency, and if that happens, I really wonder what they can do to upgrade a defense that really, really needs it--especially if they're going to cash in on all this 'Houston's got a lot of potential' nonsense I keep hearing.

I want to see if they can shore up their line, what else they do to bring in defensive talent and really what they can do to become a team. Not to mention, whether or not they're even sold on their QB.

Jacksonville
New GM & Del Rio has to be on the hot seat here.

Problem is, Del Rio's making all this noise about how the team needs to get back to pounding the ball and really hitting on defense, only who do they have to do it any more? The lost Stroud and couldn't replace him, they may lose starting center Brad Meester to free agency, and they allowed a robust 42 sacks last year while pulling in less than 30.

It seems like Kalif Barnes may have statistically been the worst LT in the game and David Garrard was knocked down more than any other QB in the league this year.

What I think I need to see from this team is an improved offensive and defensive line. If that happens or can happen, I think they improve significantly because there is some talent there, if not, enjoy your next place of employment, Jack Del Rio, because I think this team's in trouble.

Tennessee
You know, you watch Kerry Collins in the Pro Bowl, or even in that playoff game and you think, "Sweet, Jesus, how much of a complete f**king headcase must Vince Young be?" I realized this team was all about its defense, but for crying out loud, Kerry Collins?

Here's the other thing, this team was not the same same team without Haynsworth on the field. So if they lose him in FA that's a pretty significant blow. Actually, there's an argument to be made that that Albert won't ever be as dominant as he was this year simply because he was playing for a contract.

Personally, I think they lose him, and if so I'll be very interested to see what they do in the draft and free agency.

Speaking of free agency, let's look at this list:
Collins
Haynesworth
Justin McCareins
Brandon Jones (WR)
Chris Simms
Both their P & PK, Heinrich and Bironis

Yeah, enjoy your offseason, Tennessee.


AFC EAST

Buffalo
I personally have zero faith in Dick Juron. There, now that's been said.

I also think that franchise itself is on a shaky foundation what with them trying to score games in Toronto and all.

But on the field they need help. They need more talent in the passing game, which may or may not even include their QB. They need a TE who can catch a pass. They need far more production from their pass rush game. They need help along the O-line, particularly at center.

They'll likely get some pass rush help back from injury, but they still need talent. Of course, none of it helps that they're in a division with the Pats.

Truthfully, I'm not extremely well versed on this team, and could use some thoughts from followers of 'em.

NY Jets
New coaching staff
I'll certainly want to hear CapTwo's thoughts here along with other Jets' fans. Obviously they need a QB. Beyond that, though, they need CB help, badly. That pass defense was a mess. They were actually good at turning people over last year, almost as good as anybody in the AFC. Problem is, they were just as bad at turning the ball over thanks to a Conference-leading 23 INTs.

They need to fix the QB spot, they should look at if Thomas Jones (31) is getting too long in the tooth. They need to fix their pass defense and they need to hope that they can still take the ball away as well as they did last year.

Show me their draft, and if Rex Ryan goes after some of his old LBs from Baltimore.

New England
I'm one of those believers that it really does take you a good season to fully get back from an ACL. Maybe Brady's Superman, who knows, he's done so many other things, maybe he'll walk back in just fine. But I think it'll take some time. But I also have a really good feeling about this team next year, whether they cheat or not.

Whatever they do I expect to see them continue to restock at LB (because they need to given the age at that position). Also, they only pulled down 31 sacks last year, they need to up that number in a big way. Actually, part of me thinks there might be some room in overs with this team next year depending on exactly what this defense does.

You still don't just replace Asante Samuel, and if they can't really get good pressure next year either, I believe they'll score, but I believe they will be scored on, too.

Miami
I feel Miami was that team that really benefitted from a schedule and getting a ton of turnovers. If you watched them in their playoff game you saw they were dramatically outclassed--and that was at home vs. a rookie QB.

They need to fix their O-line (yes, still--look at left guard and center) and then, what you didn't really see in that playoff game, is that they need to upgrade their secondary as well (corners in particular).

Miami was the single best in the league at turnover ratio, by a longshot. They will come back to the pack on this, it's just like that. And given that, they will need to find more offense, more points, and more weed if they're going to keep FA Ricky Williams.

I'll also be somewhat suprised if Penny can repeat the season he had this year.


AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh

Poor Pittsburgh, they win the SB and they bring up the rear here. Where's the respect?

Well, according to Steeler fans the respect is going to be next to nowhere unless they can do work along their offensive line. Let's face it, this wasn't a great line all year. They gave up 49 sacks. No, seriously, 49 sacks, only Cincy, Detroit, and SF were worse. And now they have three guys, Essex, Colon, and Marvel Smith that they have to deal with.

But wait, there's more, they're probably going to lose their backup QB, Lefty in free agency (for some reason, teams are hot on Byron Leftwich) which you might not think is a big deal unless you saw Ben get plowed into next week by the Browns in Week 17 and remember he nearly ended his own career in a motorcycle accident. For whatever reason, that guy's a head injury waiting to happen.

Then, on defense, I don't care who says what, their corners don't scare me. Oh, and James Farrior is a free agent.

Cincinatti
This team makes me want to vomit. Which, oddly enough, makes me sound just like a Bengals fan.

But here is a team that couldn't average 13 points per game on the year. Seriously, at what point do you give fans a refund?

Palmer's coming back, but he might be the only one. Housh is a FA and is likely gone. If Shayne Graham's smart he might want to kick on down the road, too. Oh, and Chris Perry is a restricted free agent, Cedric Benson (for whatever he's worth) is just a regular FA.

Meanwhile, their O-line sucks, they gave up 51 sacks on the year. Their rushing offense was ranked 29th in the league. Marvin Lewis has even talked about this, it's got to be fixed.

Just put it this way, if the Bengals don't draft and/or purchase their way to a better O-line this year, I'll be looking to bet against them a lot.

Baltimore
New DC, promoted from within though he's only been there for a year
Flacco's sophomore season

Oddly enough, there are power rankings out there that finish the season with Baltimore at the top of the pile. Strange for a team who's offense I'm still not sold on.

Obviously their big issues this off-season are all about their defense. Suggs, Ray Lewis, Bart Scott. One will probably be tagged, another one will probably have to leave. Maybe two end up going.

Take this and add it to the fact that they're not exactly young in the secondary and you end up with a team that needs some things (cough, and another wide receiver, cough).

Funny thing is, the also have a few other FAs including Matt Stover.

Something tells me, I have no idea what, but that they'll actually work more with their offsense than their defense this off-season. And if they do that I really wonder if their defense won't slip pretty significantly.

Cleveland
Totally new coaching staff

First, let me apologize for making you all wait all those words when all you really care about are the Cleveland Football Browns.

Trust me, I understand.

The Browns are pretty much starting from scratch, although they have a ton of talent. They actually sent three people to the Pro Bowl--all of them linemen (Shaun Rogers, Joe Thomas, and their long-snapper).

What do they need? Linebackers. And a running back.

Frankly, it might actually be worth it to steal one of Baltimore's LBs. They won't, I don't think they can afford it, but the addition through subtraction alone might benefit them.

Word on TV is that Derek Anderson might actually be drawing interest and this makes me think two things.

First, Phil Savage, you c*cksucker, why didn't you get rid of him when you could have gotten a first and third. Second, do it. I like DA, but I've never been sold on him as a full time starter. Maybe I'm wrong, but if I could get a second round pick and another lower round pick for him, I do this deal immediately.

No idea what happens with Mangini, I think last year was a circus because of Farve and you can't really tell much from it. Before that he had one good year and one bad. Not sure what to expect from Ryan's defense either. But pretty much the only way any of it can go is up.

If the Browns draft a LB who can give them serious time, I'm happy. Pretty much if they draft any defense I'm happy. I'd also be happy with that mock draft I saw today that had Cleveland's 2nd round pick being Shonn Greene.

Again, please discuss and add, I know I will.
 
i doubt there is a market for it, but i think if the browns have the opportunity to trade down they should do it. i've spoken plenty about what i'd do in the draft, which is hopefully stockpile with trades (DA included) and drafting defense---i'd go 1. jenkins 2. cushing and i don't like curry, who we're projected to get if he's there for us. we can trade down and still get jenkins, get lbs later in the draft, and stockpile. no need to be impatient with our needs and this draft.

as a raider fan 2nd and a huge browns fan (i know, what a pathetic pair to be a fan of)---i absolutely love the ryan hire and mangini and himself will make this defense immediately a lot better. ryan is a top 3 dcoordinator in the league imo. of course i'd love any of the ravens lbs and maybe kokinis ties will help that out and maybe not. one viable free agent that they are both familar and that would fit on the browns well imo is eric barton. wouldn't be surprised to see him on the brownies next year. on the same line of thinking---i'm so happy that we didn't get callahan, whom mangini wanted. i really really fuckin hate him. if tim fucking brown doesn't wanna play for you----it's bad. anyway, i think daboll is plenty capable of using his system, which quinn is familar with and adding elements of what is really a pretty basic offense in the west coast---which is what mangini wants to do. i like the idea---quinn's strengths are short passes and play fakes, and combining the two systems fits his strengths well.

i'd like to get a rb in the draft, but only if one falls in our lap. i think we should go after morris from seattle as well. versatile back that would fit well.

browns should be weak at safety regardless--current safeties blow and not much we can do in free agency or the draft (damn you mays), but i think the dline, lbs, and corners will be much improved and i think the defense will be about 10x better this year.

still think we need to add a #2 receiver (well, we need a #1 too, but that's obviously a whole different subject) and would love to go after hoosh or toomer.

i will definitely be contributing my opinions to this thread regarding both the browns and raiders.


good shit jp.
 
Farrior was signed to an extension before the season started....LT Max Starks(FA) is the biggest potential loss to steelers line but they my let him walk a give 4th round draft pick Tony Hills the spot ...Colon is not going anywhere as yet he is only RFA..Essex will be resigned for depth he would be silly to look for work anywhere else..LG Kemo (FA)may leave..Biggest concern imho is the possibility of losing CB Brian McFadden..Wouldn be suprised to see steelers draft best CB available and build off/def lines with the 2/ 3 /4 / round picks ala Levitrra (sp ?) dude from Louville , H .Johnson or that guy from wisky cant think of name ..gots to remember also steelers get Mendenhall back and other picks last year who were hurt...solid team coming back and a weak schedule...Also just inked C /G Legursky from practice squad to 2 year deal , this guy is strong just a little raw @325 lbs
 
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Apparently like half the Patriots starters will be playing for contracts this year.

Check this out:

And the Patriots’ 2010 free agent class will be extremely hard to retain.

It’s a distinguished group that includes, in addition to Wilfork, offensive guards Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal, Seymour and Jarvis Green, tight ends Benjamin Watson and David Thomas, linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel, running back Kevin Faulk, placekicker Stephen Gostkowski, and cornerback Ellis Hobbs.


A couple of those guys don't as much matter, I think Bruschi and by then even Vrabel will be replaced or on their way out, but other names really stand out if these guys intend to get that money in a year, they need to play well this year.
 
NE T Wesley Britt (RFA) has been a back up for 3 years, with a couple solid starts and real solid playing here for Alabama ...Will be interesting to see what kind of tender offer he recieves from the Pats ...Steelers should go after this guy
 
The Jets lose their QB (Farve), but what they don't actually lose their OC, Brian Schottenheimer (sp?)

This is at least their third year under him on the offensive side of the ball.
 
The Bills' Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first three games of the season, playing with guns, being stupid.
 
I probably just lean to Cincy unders for now instead of simply fading them. They are quietly building a top 10 defense there.

But yes, they went to having a top 5 OL to having arguably the worst in the league in a couple of years. They won't win many games until they build a serviceable one.
 
With KC moving to the 3-4, that's two teams in the AFC West making that change this year (Denver). Neither may have the personnel to do it.

Said Chargers G.M. A.J. Smith, “We’re seeing Denver and Kansas City moving to the 3-4 as they start a new beginning. It will be very interesting to see how everything works with nearly every team in the division using the scheme.”
 
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