Look before you leap

tuck321

tuck321

Not all those who wander are lost
Facts
1. Orlando on the road last 20 is 4-16 su 6-14 ats
2. At Bucks they are 2-18 last 20 su and 3-15-2 ats
3. Bucks are 8-12 su at home last 20 and 9-11 ats.
4 Orlando as a 4 point fav or less last 20 is 8-12 su and 5-15 ats
But this stuff is uninportant because they are trying to dump.. OH. They have 6 games left and 26 wins. Boston has 6 games left and 23. Atlanta has 28 wins with only 5 left and has been winning their home games and almost just took down Phillie on the road. So Bucks are not catching Boston for low and Atlanta is not trying to catch them so why are they dumping this game?
What I am saying very clearly I hope is that Orlando has displayed a almost complete inability to act as a reasonable favorite especially on the road. Redd is back as is Boykins and I believe Bucks are making a legitmate if clumsy effort to play basketball and that an intrusion by orlando will be fought bitterly. That game against the Knicks they were playing to win and the Knicks got lucky with a magic 3. So is the argument that Orlando is the better team Yes they are. trouble is that superiority does not translate to wins very often because they are another mentally deficent team. Now understanding that the Bucks are certainly going to resist this as hard as they possibly can and knowing that Orlando is crazy why would this ever be a big play? Maybe its a big play because some people posted it and this is a very concensus driven forum but I would say at best this might be low 50s winning percentage which in a forum these days that seems to be addicted to up and down on small percentage advantages may be a big play.
By the way I went wild and crazy and bet Toronto minus 2 tomorrow. GL
 
throw stupid stats trends away LMAO magic vs us WAS A BIG DIFFERENCE WE WERE PLAYING FOR THE PLAYOFFS AND WE ACTUALLY HAVE BIGS TO KEEP UP ON THE BOARDS what does this have to do with the bucks?
 
hes talking all this ATS stuff then he plays TOR -2 HAHAHAHAHAH "LOW 50 %PLAY"
 
MIL is
4-13 ATS their last 17
2-8 ATS last 10 at home
1-7 ATS last 8 as the Dog
1-10 ATS their last 11 vs the East

While I agree on not going bonkers on the Magic, I have to wonder about being afraid of the Bucks. Atlanta should have cruised to a win, if anything they dumped once it was beyond question that they couldnt be said to not have given a legitimate effort.

ORL has lost in regulation once their last 4 road games, and has lost in regulation once in their last 7 games overall. So as this playoff spot with Indy has gotten tighter, they've stepped it up, which leads to treating what came before a lot more carefully imo.

And, theres this quirk - MIL's next game is at home to Indy.

Q. Does MIL win 2 straight?
On recent form (referring to stats), the answer is, no way in hell.

Q. Which team are they more likely to beat?
IND is 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS their last 11 (3-1 ATS in their 4 wins)
ORL is 6-5 SU & 6-5 ATS their last 11 (6-0 ATS in their 6 wins)

Finally, the SU winner in ORL games is 38-0 ATS their last 38 games (opening lines). When the Magic show up, they cover.
 
HOU are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Mon. games.

^ go HUGE ON HOUSTON THEY ARE 70% ON MONDAYS WOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
 
thecakeoff, I dont see anyone posting numbers for either team related to any days of the week (which in my language would be irrelevant).

If you dont understand the value of particular recent ATS numbers, thats fine. It doesnt mean others dont.
 
BetCrimes, Indiana is actually in the playoff hunt now and Most of the numbers you cited are the result of injuries that are at least partially healed. Plus I actually do think Orlando is a favorite. I have read the Orlando papers Saying this is a game they Must win and maybe they will but what i am saying is that at best with all the real negatives it is a minor bet. We have already seen one poster go all in on this thing which I see as terrible. I want to stop that. I am very sick of seeing NJ minus 9.5 when they as a team should be put in an institution and the other bets like it that have been posted recently and now we see a terrible road team that wins 25% in their fav role being posted as a major play at a site they never win at and I want to throw up. When does it stop? there are at leat 4 very reasonable bets tomorrow so why bring in the cartoon network. GL
 
4 reasonable bets?

I see only 3, GS, TOR and ORL..could u expound on the other 2? tnx
 
tuck, thats fair enough.

With Redd playing they are still only 0-8 ATS their last 8 vs the East.
Their last 6 games with both Redd & Boykins playing, they're 1-5 ATS.

Even only incl. the 2 players you mentioned, things are not rosy. In saying that, I'm not trying to undermine your warning from statland regarding ORL. I'm merely putting those bad stats in MIL's present context. As bad as they are for ORL, I don't believe they warrant shutting down a play on them (if someone is so inclined). As to the size such a play warrants, thats another matter.
 
Good stuff Tuck.

But, that being said, this is the nitty-gritty time in the NBA and I throw out everything.

Mathcup wise this game is a no-brainer. I love betting on teams that will simply own the glass on both ends. That in turn creates their tempo and demoralizes the opposition. Add in a team that needs to win vs a team that don't give a rats ass and thats a recipe for success.

Appreciate all the hard work as always and good luck tonight.
 
I'm with cake on this one. One team is fighting for its playoff life, the other is playing out the season, and you're looking at ATS trends? Comeon.
 
tuck, I still don't understand why other posters' big plays bother you so much when you don't agree. I remember you saying I was nuts for playing the Memp/Suns over on MLK, there was no value at 232, much better plays out there, even if it wins it will barely make it over. The game hit 260. Now I'm sure you've been right and I've been wrong before also, so I'm not saying I told you so or anything like that, but just because you don't agree with a play doesn't mean it's not a very, very good and sharp play. BAR has a simple strategy this time of year, play teams who care vs. teams who don't, regardless of spread. I also don't quite understand why you think Milwaukee gives a shit about winning right now. I'm asking seriously, do you have any experience in late-season NBA betting? And if so, haven't you noticed that teams flatout throw in the towel the last week or two?
 
Well I'm all for the state being separate from the church. People have the right to choose, the fact I choose to go to church and listen to their teachings doesn't mean everyone should be affected by it. Something Saudi Arabia and similar countries should start implementing. Sorry for the offtopic guys. :shake:
 
Bucks have dialed in their season, you only had to watch the last quarter against the Hornets last week. Redd and co will continue the mantra of putting in 100% effort especially since it is a home game but I'm sure that was said without a straight face.
 
april is the month of square bets. small road chalk with teams in the playoff hunt is money this time of year.
 
tuck qualified his post with the (expected) presence of Redd. Redd didnt play.

And it looks like my ATS numbers for the Fucks were spot on, coming in very handy indeed.
 
the key with trends is knowing which ones are applicable and which ones aren't.
 
Guys...one more shitty comment in this thread and you can take a week off...if you have already had a week off you can take 3 months off...easy enough?

Everyone caps different. I love reading tucks threads..he a lot of times helps out bringing to light things we may not notice. He isn't squarly a numbers guy IMO. He is selective and I value his opinion. He doesn't come into your threads being a dick. Please respect each other and HELP each other.
 
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