Live Betting Cautionary Tale

[T-Squared]

I was doing a bit of chasing last night with Oak-TB game. Waited for A's Blackburn to be pulled as he was dominating. Figured the A's, with a big lead, would go to less-accomplished relievers to bring it home, but still consider TB to be the better team. Took TB +7.5 when they had a runner on and down 9-1 in the seventh, I think. They got a run across to make it 9-2.

What I didn't count on was the Rays bringing in RF Phillips to pitch. Looked like a slow-pitch softball pitcher and gave up a slam. He was entertaining, but a tad costly. Just when you think you've got a reasonable plan mapped out, poof. TB did use five pitchers before Phillips and lost starter Patino in the first to injury. In the future, I will know to look for such signs: There's no point in burning up a half-dozen arms in a rout.

Just a tidbit I thought I'd share.

 

[KJ]

Man the Rays would be virtually impossible for me to bet on live. They define unorthodox.

 

[T-Squared]

Man the Rays would be virtually impossible for me to bet on live. They define unorthodox.

Another reason to show a bit more caution, I suppose.

 

[KJ]

Another reason to show a bit more caution, I suppose.

It's also why they've been successful while paying their players like McDonald's employees

 

[peelpub94]

Man the Rays would be virtually impossible for me to bet on live. They define unorthodox.

Came here to say just this. You will never be able to run this strat with TB. Anyone else, sure.

 

[2daBank]

Def tough to know what a team will do down a bunch of runs.

 

[2daBank]

If I’ve learned anything bout myself I’m way better off not live betting,, lol. Once in a great while I actually find spots w a good live play, the problem is all the ones in between! These days if I got the itch and gotta do it I prefer just taking some small shots on teams that are down w fat odds to come back, can’t get hurt to bad doing that!

 

[T-Squared]

Maybe it's just me and grand slams. Had the Reds covering +3 in an adjusted parlay ... until the Guardians hit a slam in the ninth.

 

[big_units]

I was doing a bit of chasing last night with Oak-TB game. Waited for A's Blackburn to be pulled as he was dominating. Figured the A's, with a big lead, would go to less-accomplished relievers to bring it home, but still consider TB to be the better team. Took TB +7.5 when they had a runner on and down 9-1 in the seventh, I think. They got a run across to make it 9-2.

What I didn't count on was the Rays bringing in RF Phillips to pitch. Looked like a slow-pitch softball pitcher and gave up a slam. He was entertaining, but a tad costly. Just when you think you've got a reasonable plan mapped out, poof. TB did use five pitchers before Phillips and lost starter Patino in the first to injury. In the future, I will know to look for such signs: There's no point in burning up a half-dozen arms in a rout.

Just a tidbit I thought I'd share.

taking this situation as a positive going forward...i missed this one because i was at another game, but one of the things i look for in mlb live betting is large leads when we hit the 8th inning. the live algorithms never factor in a position player pitching. once you see one warming up, load up that game on live and you will see some gift lines. when the tampons game hit the 9th inning at 9-2, the line was probably oak -7.5 +200 or +225. i take the 7.5 immediately, then if they score a run and are still batting, i take the -8.5 at +250 or more. every time they score, i bet the new line until the inning ends. with 2 outs and runners on base, you will get huge + odds. then, i hedge the bets with the bottom 9th line at +200 or more. lots of times i'll end up with -7.5 +200, -8.5 + 250, -9.5 +300, then +9.5 +300 and the final ends up 11-2. the line hardly ever adjusts because it's just assuming a random reliever is pitching. you can usually find 1 or 2 of these in mlb every week if you keep close watch.

 

[jedi ninja]

taking this situation as a positive going forward...i missed this one because i was at another game, but one of the things i look for in mlb live betting is large leads when we hit the 8th inning. the live algorithms never factor in a position player pitching. once you see one warming up, load up that game on live and you will see some gift lines. when the tampons game hit the 9th inning at 9-2, the line was probably oak -7.5 +200 or +225. i take the 7.5 immediately, then if they score a run and are still batting, i take the -8.5 at +250 or more. every time they score, i bet the new line until the inning ends. with 2 outs and runners on base, you will get huge + odds. then, i hedge the bets with the bottom 9th line at +200 or more. lots of times i'll end up with -7.5 +200, -8.5 + 250, -9.5 +300, then +9.5 +300 and the final ends up 11-2. the line hardly ever adjusts because it's just assuming a random reliever is pitching. you can usually find 1 or 2 of these in mlb every week if you keep close watch.

I would have never guessed it happened that much, but there were more than 75 instances of a position player pitching in 2021.

Not sure why the guy didn’t give the exact number, and I didn’t feel like counting them all, but here they are…

2021's Best (Position Player) Pitching Performances | Pitcher List

A definitive ranking of the best of the very bad.

www.pitcherlist.com

 

[big_units]

I would have never guessed it happened that much, but there were more than 75 instances of a position player pitching in 2021.

Not sure why the guy didn’t give the exact number, and I didn’t feel like counting them all, but here they are…

2021's Best (Position Player) Pitching Performances | Pitcher List

A definitive ranking of the best of the very bad.

www.pitcherlist.com

it happened in the d'bags game sunday as well. line drive double play got them out of it with no runs. i'd say there is at least 1 run scored over half the time though, and you always get nice +odds, most of the times a huge number. 75 isn't surprising, because if someone asked me how often i bet a similar situation last season, i'd estimate about 40-50 times.

 

[B.A.R.]

I would have never guessed it happened that much, but there were more than 75 instances of a position player pitching in 2021.

Not sure why the guy didn’t give the exact number, and I didn’t feel like counting them all, but here they are…

2021's Best (Position Player) Pitching Performances | Pitcher List

A definitive ranking of the best of the very bad.

www.pitcherlist.com

Wow, that's a crazy amount. I'd say about 5x what I would figure.

 

[jedi ninja]

it happened in the d'bags game sunday as well. line drive double play got them out of it with no runs. i'd say there is at least 1 run scored over half the time though, and you always get nice +odds, most of the times a huge number. 75 isn't surprising, because if someone asked me how often i bet a similar situation last season, i'd estimate about 40-50 times.

It’s definitely ramped up in the past few years. I wouldn’t think it happened more than a handful of times per year maybe as recent as 5-7 years ago.

 

[T-Squared]

I would have never guessed it happened that much, but there were more than 75 instances of a position player pitching in 2021.

Not sure why the guy didn’t give the exact number, and I didn’t feel like counting them all, but here they are…

2021's Best (Position Player) Pitching Performances | Pitcher List

A definitive ranking of the best of the very bad.

www.pitcherlist.com

Haha. Brett Phillips, who pitched again last night, is No. 2 on the list. Says he threw 94.3 mph last year. Changed to Eephus style this year, I guess.

 

[big_units]

It’s definitely ramped up in the past few years. I wouldn’t think it happened more than a handful of times per year maybe as recent as 5-7 years ago.

right, much more common now. i've been using this strategy for about 5 years now. so, it looks like it happens at least twice a week. i would have put the o/u at 1.5 times per week but guess i was undercutting.

 

[jedi ninja]

right, much more common now. i've been using this strategy for about 5 years now. so, it looks like it happens at least twice a week. i would have put the o/u at 1.5 times per week but guess i was undercutting.

Here are a couple of articles about the increased frequency of it occurring. Really fascinating stuff IMO, I didn’t realize it was happening so often now and it’s a great strategy as you’ve said…

The Novelty of Position Players Pitching Is Becoming Practical

While Willians Astudillo's 46 mph strikes were fun, the novelty of position players taking the mound is quickly becoming a simple practicality throughout baseball.

www.si.com

Roundtable: What Should MLB Do About the Dramatic Spike in Position Players Pitching?

MLB teams using position players to pitch is both practical and enjoyable, though it might not be as fun as it once was.

www.si.com

 

[jedi ninja]

I also didn’t know there was a rule change that has allowed it to happen more frequently. Apparently in 2020, the rule changed…it used to only be allowed in extra innings, or games where a team was trailing by 6 or more runs.

MLB Changes Rule For Position Players To Pitch During 2020 Season

MLB changed course and will allow position players to pitch at any point during the 2020 season as opposed to only in blowouts and extra innings.

www.google.com

 

[big_units]

I also didn’t know there was a rule change that has allowed it to happen more frequently. Apparently in 2020, the rule changed…it used to only be allowed in extra innings, or games where a team was trailing by 6 or more runs.

MLB Changes Rule For Position Players To Pitch During 2020 Season

MLB changed course and will allow position players to pitch at any point during the 2020 season as opposed to only in blowouts and extra innings.

www.google.com

lots depends on the manager as well...baldelli, maddon, and lovullo are ones that stick out in my mind who i've been frequently involved with. some managers only do it when they're totally decimated. maddon actually seems to get a kick out of it.
once you get the first run scored, it can really create some nice profits because if they do get on the board, it's usually for 3+ runs.

 

[big_units]

dee gordon pitching right now for washiton

 

[big_units]

atl -10.5 is +275

 

[big_units]

albies launches a hr. atl -11.5 is +290 now

 

[big_units]

gordon walks in a run. atl -12.5 now +205

 

[big_units]

another single for a 3rd run before inning ends. 16-3 atl. now washiton +12.5 is +265. textbook example of my previous post.

 

[big_units]

wil myers about to pitch. sf -9.5 is +250 to start inning

 

[big_units]

pederson takes him deep. sf -10.5 +300 now

 

[big_units]

flores another hr. no more lines up on giants side. can only hedge now at sd +10.5 +290. still easy money.

 

[peelpub94]

Maybe it's just me and grand slams. Had the Reds covering +3 in an adjusted parlay ... until the Guardians hit a slam in the ninth.

I actually had them +2.5 as well and lost a similar parlay. Baseball is brutal. Moneyline dogs have always been the way to go IMO. Haven't been into it since the 2019 season, but thinking about starting it back up again.

2019 season tracked: MLB '19

 

[twinkie13]

Wild stuff

 

[big_units]

i'll post it on my thread from now on when it happens instead of junking this one up. i'm guessing since it's happened 4 times in the first week, that this season will be a record. then, next season, wouldn't be surprised if books go full pussy and start taking down live lines when position players enter.