Under 43.5:
I see a lot of love (% of tix) for the 'over' and Vikes. I think this is pure recency bias because Minny exploded at home against an undermanned Dolphins team off a division win. The thing about that game is that Minnesota thrived by running the ball. Kirk Cousins is still playing poorly (recent stats inflated by garbage time production) which is actually normal for him in December. Last year for instance is passer rating was 19 points lower in December than in November, this year it's 14 points lower. Lions' run defense has been solid since adding Damon Harrison (7th in opp YPC in past three games), so I don't think Minny will be able to run against Detroit. No run, no pass, no scoring.
Stafford has been playing through a back injury. He actually put up decent numbers against Buffalo, but that was because he was able to rely on Golladay, who caught the vast majority of Stafford's 200 yards. Golladay is Detroit's only wide receiver with at least 200 yards on the season! Minnesota ranks #3 in pass D against opposing #1 receiver, but is very poor in defending opposing running backs, so I think Stafford's downfield game will be really limited (Golladay had 46 receiving yards in their first meeting) and I foresee more simple check-downs to the running back. Lions haven't scored more than 17 points in the past four games.
The Lions have been very competitive in general and as home dogs, the Rams' score is misleading cause short fields and recovered onside kicks, Russell went off, but otherwise they hung with da Bears, beat the Pats, and Packers, I lean on them to play spoiler. On the contrary the Vikings' offense has been pretty dead on the road lately largely because they've relied on Cousins to throw so many passes. I feel more comfortable with the total than banking on Stafford to do enough.
I see a lot of love (% of tix) for the 'over' and Vikes. I think this is pure recency bias because Minny exploded at home against an undermanned Dolphins team off a division win. The thing about that game is that Minnesota thrived by running the ball. Kirk Cousins is still playing poorly (recent stats inflated by garbage time production) which is actually normal for him in December. Last year for instance is passer rating was 19 points lower in December than in November, this year it's 14 points lower. Lions' run defense has been solid since adding Damon Harrison (7th in opp YPC in past three games), so I don't think Minny will be able to run against Detroit. No run, no pass, no scoring.
Stafford has been playing through a back injury. He actually put up decent numbers against Buffalo, but that was because he was able to rely on Golladay, who caught the vast majority of Stafford's 200 yards. Golladay is Detroit's only wide receiver with at least 200 yards on the season! Minnesota ranks #3 in pass D against opposing #1 receiver, but is very poor in defending opposing running backs, so I think Stafford's downfield game will be really limited (Golladay had 46 receiving yards in their first meeting) and I foresee more simple check-downs to the running back. Lions haven't scored more than 17 points in the past four games.
The Lions have been very competitive in general and as home dogs, the Rams' score is misleading cause short fields and recovered onside kicks, Russell went off, but otherwise they hung with da Bears, beat the Pats, and Packers, I lean on them to play spoiler. On the contrary the Vikings' offense has been pretty dead on the road lately largely because they've relied on Cousins to throw so many passes. I feel more comfortable with the total than banking on Stafford to do enough.
