Lions vs. Panthers NFL Week 16 Picks & Predictions: Lions to Continue Winning Streak
Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte
Lions 24 -- Panthers 15
Best Bet: Lions -3 at -106 with BetOnline
Detroit's New Winning Ways
Some people still haven't gotten used to the fact that Detroit has become a winning team.
But it is a fact: the Lions have won three in a row and six of their last seven.
That one loss is not a shameful one at all: a likely AFC East champion Buffalo team that was favored to win the Super Bowl at the start of the regular season beat them by three points.
During this streak, the Lions also managed to beat multiple playoff-caliber teams.
They handled the Vikings by double digits, the Jets by three, and the likewise ascendant Jaguars by 26 points.
The upshot of this analysis is that NFL Oddsmakers, like many NFL bettors, are still trying to adjust to the new Detroit.
With an ongoing 7-0 ATS win streak, the Lions are basically an auto-bet right now.
Some bets require deep analysis, but this one's pretty simple.
Road Struggles?
The new Detroit is also a team that succeeds on the road.
Losing franchises don't become winning ones overnight, and the Lions had, earlier in the season, played significantly worse on the road than they did at home.
This is not the Lion team that lost in New England and lost almost as badly in Dallas.
Detroit has, in fact, won three straight road games.
Now, one might say that those road wins weren't impressive: the Bears are a losing team, the Giants are universally recognized to be worse than their record suggests, and the Jets are now 7-7.
But what is Carolina? The Panthers are 5-9 while playing in the easiest division in the NFL.
If the Lions can't beat good teams on the road, then we won't find that out this week, because the Panthers are obviously not a good team. They are not better than the teams that Detroit has most recently handled on the road.
Weaknesses
You might think that I am unfairly hyping up Detroit. Surely, they have some weaknesses, so what are they?
I won't spend too much time on Detroit's one significant defensive weakness because it's irrelevant to this game.
But it's worth acknowledging with future bets in mind that the Lions struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks.
Buffalo's Josh Allen and Chicago's Justin Fields both achieved superb rushing outputs against the Lion defense.
Detroit's vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks is currently irrelevant, though, because Carolina quarterback Sam Darnold doesn't run and can't run well.
Carolina's Offensive Outlook
Since firing their defensive backs coach after the Miami game, Detroit has stymied quarterback after quarterback, as evident in its opposing passing stats.
Minnesota's Kirk Cousins is the one exception, as his team played from behind -- and still lost by 11 points -- and he kept throwing to superstar Justin Jefferson.
But, for example, Josh Allen mustered an 80.8 passer rating against Detroit, which is obviously well below his season average.
One of Jaguar Trevor Lawrence's worst performances of the season likewise came against this new Lions team.
Darnold is classifiable as mediocre-at-best. He averages 7.7 YPA while maybe mustering 200 passing yards, and his passer rating remains below 100.
As for its rush attack, since Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers, Carolina relies on his former backups, who average just over four YPC after getting to face Seattle's broken run defense.
The Lion run defense is no longer broken -- in fact, the Lions are allowing a league-low 55.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games.
Jared Goff's Outlook
With efficiency issues at running back, the Lions live and die with Jared Goff, who, alongside the team's plethora of weapons at wide receiver, largely explains why the Lions have exceeded 30 points in four of their last six games.
Given Carolina's offensive deficiencies, Detroit won't even need to score 30 points in order to cover the spread.
Goff has struggled against top-ranked pass defenses, such as Philadelphia's, but Carolina's pass defense ranks outside the top 10.
The Panther cornerback group is characterized by unproven experience.
After their best one, their top cornerbacks struggle to induce incomplete passes.
Detroit's deep wide receiver group is equipped to have more than enough success against Carolina's defense.
While one can always expect route-running sensation Amon-Ra St. Brown to be productive, also expect DJ Chark to regenerate his streak of 90-yard receiving games.
The Verdict
In addition to Detroit covering the spread, expect Detroit's defensive success to do the most to ensure that this game goes "under" the posted total.
For the above reasons, play the Lions ATS and the "under."
Best Bet: Under 44.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte
Lions 24 -- Panthers 15
Best Bet: Lions -3 at -106 with BetOnline
Detroit's New Winning Ways
Some people still haven't gotten used to the fact that Detroit has become a winning team.
But it is a fact: the Lions have won three in a row and six of their last seven.
That one loss is not a shameful one at all: a likely AFC East champion Buffalo team that was favored to win the Super Bowl at the start of the regular season beat them by three points.
During this streak, the Lions also managed to beat multiple playoff-caliber teams.
They handled the Vikings by double digits, the Jets by three, and the likewise ascendant Jaguars by 26 points.
The upshot of this analysis is that NFL Oddsmakers, like many NFL bettors, are still trying to adjust to the new Detroit.
With an ongoing 7-0 ATS win streak, the Lions are basically an auto-bet right now.
Some bets require deep analysis, but this one's pretty simple.
Road Struggles?
The new Detroit is also a team that succeeds on the road.
Losing franchises don't become winning ones overnight, and the Lions had, earlier in the season, played significantly worse on the road than they did at home.
This is not the Lion team that lost in New England and lost almost as badly in Dallas.
Detroit has, in fact, won three straight road games.
Now, one might say that those road wins weren't impressive: the Bears are a losing team, the Giants are universally recognized to be worse than their record suggests, and the Jets are now 7-7.
But what is Carolina? The Panthers are 5-9 while playing in the easiest division in the NFL.
If the Lions can't beat good teams on the road, then we won't find that out this week, because the Panthers are obviously not a good team. They are not better than the teams that Detroit has most recently handled on the road.
Weaknesses
You might think that I am unfairly hyping up Detroit. Surely, they have some weaknesses, so what are they?
I won't spend too much time on Detroit's one significant defensive weakness because it's irrelevant to this game.
But it's worth acknowledging with future bets in mind that the Lions struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks.
Buffalo's Josh Allen and Chicago's Justin Fields both achieved superb rushing outputs against the Lion defense.
Detroit's vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks is currently irrelevant, though, because Carolina quarterback Sam Darnold doesn't run and can't run well.
Carolina's Offensive Outlook
Since firing their defensive backs coach after the Miami game, Detroit has stymied quarterback after quarterback, as evident in its opposing passing stats.
Minnesota's Kirk Cousins is the one exception, as his team played from behind -- and still lost by 11 points -- and he kept throwing to superstar Justin Jefferson.
But, for example, Josh Allen mustered an 80.8 passer rating against Detroit, which is obviously well below his season average.
One of Jaguar Trevor Lawrence's worst performances of the season likewise came against this new Lions team.
Darnold is classifiable as mediocre-at-best. He averages 7.7 YPA while maybe mustering 200 passing yards, and his passer rating remains below 100.
As for its rush attack, since Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers, Carolina relies on his former backups, who average just over four YPC after getting to face Seattle's broken run defense.
The Lion run defense is no longer broken -- in fact, the Lions are allowing a league-low 55.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games.
Jared Goff's Outlook
With efficiency issues at running back, the Lions live and die with Jared Goff, who, alongside the team's plethora of weapons at wide receiver, largely explains why the Lions have exceeded 30 points in four of their last six games.
Given Carolina's offensive deficiencies, Detroit won't even need to score 30 points in order to cover the spread.
Goff has struggled against top-ranked pass defenses, such as Philadelphia's, but Carolina's pass defense ranks outside the top 10.
The Panther cornerback group is characterized by unproven experience.
After their best one, their top cornerbacks struggle to induce incomplete passes.
Detroit's deep wide receiver group is equipped to have more than enough success against Carolina's defense.
While one can always expect route-running sensation Amon-Ra St. Brown to be productive, also expect DJ Chark to regenerate his streak of 90-yard receiving games.
The Verdict
In addition to Detroit covering the spread, expect Detroit's defensive success to do the most to ensure that this game goes "under" the posted total.
For the above reasons, play the Lions ATS and the "under."
Best Bet: Under 44.5 at -110 with BetOnline
