Lions vs Chiefs, oh my!

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Here, we are, my unexpected source of gambling income the past few years, the NFL..

I say that holding my breath, but for some reason the past 3 years I have done really solid in the Niffel.

Why? Good question. I think the diversity of my plays is the biggest part...

What will I bet this year?

Team Totals on occasion
Live totals
Live sides
Occasional pre-game side
Early season player props
1Q live totals (the ole Hunt special)
ML parlays
Occasional teaser

On the last two, those are maybe a handful of times in the season.

Anyways, I'll try and post as many as I can. Only a few guys can successfully post all their live bets (Hunt, big units) fast enough to help others. The NFL will be easier than college for myself to do that.

That is enough of the intro...

Onto TNF...

I would not be surprised if the Lions won this one on the field. The injury to Kelce is giving me some more pause though (no betting AGAINST injuries)


Detroit TT o23.5 -115 @ BETONLINE
 
I played gibbs over rec yards the other day and lt appears I did the right thing playing it early. I looked little bit ago and it was up a good 4-5 yards from where I took him. Pretty sure I got 26.5 and think he up to 31.5 now. I’d prob still play it, when I bet him I figured he either smashes that or im wrong about how much I think he gonna be used in passing game. I think he could put up eckler type receiving numbers, I assume he gonna have to share time and rush attempts w Montgomery but far as throwing the ball I gotta think he the rb of choice and obvious replacement for swift’s roll. Swift been getting 70+ targets a year and he missed handful of games every year. I don’t see why gibbs doesn’t get at least 5 targets a game, maybe more on days they playing from behind! Not sure they be trying to come back In this game but it certainly a possibility.
 
2daBank said:
I played gibbs over rec yards the other day and lt appears I did the right thing playing it early. I looked little bit ago and it was up a good 4-5 yards from where I took him. Pretty sure I got 26.5 and think he up to 31.5 now. I’d prob still play it, when I bet him I figured he either smashes that or im wrong about how much I think he gonna be used in passing game. I think he could put up eckler type receiving numbers, I assume he gonna have to share time and rush attempts w Montgomery but far as throwing the ball I gotta think he the rb of choice and obvious replacement for swift’s roll. Swift been getting 70+ targets a year and he missed handful of games every year. I don’t see why gibbs doesn’t get at least 5 targets a game, maybe more on days they playing from behind! Not sure they be trying to come back In this game but it certainly a possibility.
Click to expand...
Excellent bet
 
Kelce > than the don’t bet against injury omen. This team is very average without him with their current weapons. I think he’s worth several points, and more than some QBs.
 
Inspekdah said:
Kelce > than the don’t bet against injury omen. This team is very average without him with their current weapons. I think he’s worth several points, and more than some QBs.
Click to expand...
The d lineman is way more important than Kelce
 
KJ said:
I seriously expect 75+ points, there is zero resistance from both teams
Click to expand...
Mahomes a company man more than capable of leading long 9-10 minute drives and will hold the horses back to keep it under and flirt with the spread at all times.
 
Inspekdah said:
Mahomes a company man more than capable of leading long 9-10 minute drives and will hold the horses back to keep it under and flirt with the spread at all times.
Click to expand...
I expect the winner to score 40+, I just don't know which team that will be
 
B.A.R. said:
Here, we are, my unexpected source of gambling income the past few years, the NFL..

I say that holding my breath, but for some reason the past 3 years I have done really solid in the Niffel.

Why? Good question. I think the diversity of my plays is the biggest part...

What will I bet this year?

Team Totals on occasion
Live totals
Live sides
Occasional pre-game side
Early season player props
1Q live totals (the ole Hunt special)
ML parlays
Occasional teaser

On the last two, those are maybe a handful of times in the season.

Anyways, I'll try and post as many as I can. Only a few guys can successfully post all their live bets (Hunt, big units) fast enough to help others. The NFL will be easier than college for myself to do that.

That is enough of the intro...

Onto TNF...

I would not be surprised if the Lions won this one on the field. The injury to Kelce is giving me some more pause though (no betting AGAINST injuries)


Detroit TT o23.5 -115 @ BETONLINE
Click to expand...

A big angle on this bet is an entire off season for Ben Johnson to game plan.

Don't overlook that whatsoever...
 
Inspekdah said:
Kelce > than the don’t bet against injury omen. This team is very average without him with their current weapons. I think he’s worth several points, and more than some QBs.
Click to expand...

Oh bro I dunno, I certainly don’t want to diminish what kelce has done, what he means to this team, the fact he makes 14ish mil per year or 10-15 mil less than the top paid wrs, prob 5 million less than what pretty good wrs starting to make is freaking CRIMINAL!! The way they use him he is without question right behind Patty Mahomes as far as the driving force for this offense! Without kelce they never could have laughed at Cheetah’s contract request and shipped
him off for a nice pile of draft picks! He is basically Dreymond Green of the nfl! Steph life and number of rings woulda been far less enjoyable without him!!

All that said I have to disagree with your thoughts on his point value to this game is anywhere close to a qb of any caliber. Maybe if we were not talking about Andy Reid and Patty Mahomes I could be on board with that sentiment, if the reports are wrong and he actually tore his knee up to point he would miss months or the season then your assessment of his value would be accurate if not light imo!! There no chance kc winning the SB, it would be I believe the 1st time Patty Mahomes wasn’t playing in the afc championship game!

BUT, for 1 game with time to prepare (im not sure when he initially hurt himself? I didn’t even know till I opened @B.A.R. thread! I havnt had time to be worrying bout any shows or read anything nlf related since our preseason betting ended and ncaa started! I only got so much time and energy in a day!! Lol. I’m assuming at minimum kc has been able to prepare and walk thru a game plan this week?? They have one the best coaches in the business doing that (currently and all time imo) and obviously he has the best guy (again not only currently but a trajectory as a all timer!) to execute that plan to a tee!! (Back in my video game days I could devise a excellent offense with kc playbook and these pieces without kelce! LmAo), and the craziest thing I’ll say is this will probably be a bit problematic for the lions d as now they gonna get a offense they can’t possibly prepare for! Sure it makes life easier in the sense they not pulling their hair out worrying bout how to stop kelce from racking up 1st downs, they now have a extra defender to use elsewhere. They just don’t know what the focus needs to be mow!!

I’m very tempted to bet mckinnon over 25.5 rec yards (I actually see he has moved up a yard from this morning to 26.5). I think he will be a important piece in moving the chains, the problem is I seem to remember Pacheco became more impactful as a pass catcher at some point last year (I’d have to look that up to see if that accurate, I dreamt it, and what he actually did! Lol). Could be one those plays I love like ncaa 1st week where I have the right idea but wrong player does it! Nothing I hate more. One thing I do know is I’m not as sure I want lions bet! It causes quite the dilemma on the spread. We have the bookies best friend Andy Reid who generally would be thrilled to win this game and not cover, but if kelce is out w lions already being a team many ppl like/respect it coukd end up extra lions money from the crowd who normally bets kc and is pissed off they didn’t cover!! All a sudden Andy gets the call to go ahead and cover the number if he can!! LmAo
 
2daBank said:
Oh bro I dunno, I certainly don’t want to diminish what kelce has done, what he means to this team, the fact he makes 14ish mil per year or 10-15 mil less than the top paid wrs, prob 5 million less than what pretty good wrs starting to make is freaking CRIMINAL!! The way they use him he is without question right behind Patty Mahomes as far as the driving force for this offense! Without kelce they never could have laughed at Cheetah’s contract request and shipped
him off for a nice pile of draft picks! He is basically Dreymond Green of the nfl! Steph life and number of rings woulda been far less enjoyable without him!!

All that said I have to disagree with your thoughts on his point value to this game is anywhere close to a qb of any caliber. Maybe if we were not talking about Andy Reid and Patty Mahomes I could be on board with that sentiment, if the reports are wrong and he actually tore his knee up to point he would miss months or the season then your assessment of his value would be accurate if not light imo!! There no chance kc winning the SB, it would be I believe the 1st time Patty Mahomes wasn’t playing in the afc championship game!

BUT, for 1 game with time to prepare (im not sure when he initially hurt himself? I didn’t even know till I opened @B.A.R. thread! I havnt had time to be worrying bout any shows or read anything nlf related since our preseason betting ended and ncaa started! I only got so much time and energy in a day!! Lol. I’m assuming at minimum kc has been able to prepare and walk thru a game plan this week?? They have one the best coaches in the business doing that (currently and all time imo) and obviously he has the best guy (again not only currently but a trajectory as a all timer!) to execute that plan to a tee!! (Back in my video game days I could devise a excellent offense with kc playbook and these pieces without kelce! LmAo), and the craziest thing I’ll say is this will probably be a bit problematic for the lions d as now they gonna get a offense they can’t possibly prepare for! Sure it makes life easier in the sense they not pulling their hair out worrying bout how to stop kelce from racking up 1st downs, they now have a extra defender to use elsewhere. They just don’t know what the focus needs to be mow!!

I’m very tempted to bet mckinnon over 25.5 rec yards (I actually see he has moved up a yard from this morning to 26.5). I think he will be a important piece in moving the chains, the problem is I seem to remember Pacheco became more impactful as a pass catcher at some point last year (I’d have to look that up to see if that accurate, I dreamt it, and what he actually did! Lol). Could be one those plays I love like ncaa 1st week where I have the right idea but wrong player does it! Nothing I hate more. One thing I do know is I’m not as sure I want lions bet! It causes quite the dilemma on the spread. We have the bookies best friend Andy Reid who generally would be thrilled to win this game and not cover, but if kelce is out w lions already being a team many ppl like/respect it coukd end up extra lions money from the crowd who normally bets kc and is pissed off they didn’t cover!! All a sudden Andy gets the call to go ahead and cover the number if he can!! LmAo
Click to expand...

He’s worth 4/5 points in my opinion. Especially with that limited WR core.
 
Inspekdah said:
He’s worth 4/5 points in my opinion. Especially with that limited WR core.
Click to expand...

I think he worth several wins long term but one game I think you really underestimating what kc should be able to draw up with their rbs and the only wr I would call limited per day is Valdez scantling. I have no clue if toney playing but he more than talented enough to get open without kelce drawing extra coverage, it’s a shame dude made of glass or he would be a high end player. Sky Moore and Rashee rice far from limited, they just young and inexperienced, both have all kinds of talent. I know ppl who love sky Moore, he kinda small for my taste but I’m sure Reid can find ways to get him the ball in space, personally I think Reshee rice could be special, watched him for years in college and few games this preseason, he reminds me of the dudes who come out of ol miss even tho he played at smu. He has that build tho and more than looks the part to me. If you tell me they gonna rock w MVS and James or some bull shit I’d agree with you. If more snaps go to rice and Moore there plenty of talent out there, if Tony plays also then it the makings of a dangerous trio (of course you gotta get a td drive out of toney quick cause he be hurt again in no time, lol). Anyways I don’t know which guys will get most the snaps is the problem and why I referred to having a bit a ncaa week 1 feel to me. I know which guys I’d play! Combine those 2 young guys with completely different skill sets (rice having the build of a potential 1 and Moore a slot guy) with mckinnon and pecheco out the backfield I just don’t think moving the ball will be a issue. Long haul they not a SB contender without kelce. For a game they could hang 30 no problem imo.
 
Really all im trying to say is I clearly agree w kelce value as I’ve said in both post I don’t think they sniff the SB without him. I just think it way easier to say he worth a bunch of wins and the difference between SB contender and early round playoff exit if he not there.

I’ve never understood the way the books or certain ppl try to put point values on 1 player for a1 game outside of qb honestly? Clearly the oddsmakers vehemently disagree with your 5 point assessment as they not moving any line for any player outside of qb more than 1-2 points as so far been the case here. I personally think it incredibly silly to say player x half point, player y full point, no player outside qb worth 2 points according to oddsmakers from what I understand? It makes no damn stance to me anyway cause football don’t really work that way, you take a great center or left tackle away and your day can be completely wrecked! There is certainly the possibility no kelce means kc offense can’t pick up 3rd downs or punch in red zone chances but is that a given? With a great play caller, the best qb on the planet, a very good oline, 2 good backs, young but talented wrs they could easily have a day he not missed, if they score 31 dies that mean if he played they woulda scored 36? Obviously he increases their chances of success but far as a point value beats me! I don’t look at nfl the same as any other sport including ncaa fb, I have a more skeptical thought process like thinking him being out makes it more likely kc covers. It’s probably dumb but honestly I think 75-80% of nfl games come down to a handful of plays, bad calls, turnovers. Trying to cap it in any kind of logical way feels like a exercise In futility to me!!
 
Here is a list of my futures and props ... below that will be if I still recommend those and at what price...


Detroit Lions +2200
Detroit Lions +2800
Dallas Cowboys +1400
Jacksonville +2500
Jacksonville to win AFC South -155
Jacksonville to win AFC South - 160
Jacksonville to win AFC South -170
New Orleans to win NFC South +125
RSW-Carolina u7.5 +100 2 units
Prop- Derek Carr o23.5 TD's -115


I see the Jagsc at around -175. Yes, I like it at that number. This is the best team in this division, no doubt. The Titans will be solid, but I expect the Jags to take another step.

DC prop is current.

The Saints is a basic unit play. I like this at anything +110 or better.

I grabbed Dallas because I do not see those odds increasing this season. You all know by now my disdain for Coach Mc. He is awful... and betting on them to win in the playoffs is laughable...

BUT...

The NFC is down this year, overall. Finding SB targets here is MUCH easier than the NFC.

I see Dallas and Detroit as two of the top 4/5 teams. Either one is capable with some improvements on defense.

The Jags play in a very tough conference. But, they should get some home playoff games. We should see the ultimate leap this year from Trevor. This is his Burrow year in my opinion.

I say YES play on Detroit and Jacksonville. Likely you will beat my numbers anyway! Find Dallas at a good price.

Lastly, the juice on that Panthers RSW is a hefty tariff on the under. I probably wouldn't go over 125.
 
Chiefs defense is usually terrible early in the year and without Chris Jones up the middle I expect Detroit to run the ball for 5 yards plus a carry. Unless Goff makes some horrible mistakes Over 23.5 looks easy. Mahomes early season numbers are amazing as well so hopefully he can keep us in it. Should be a fun one.
 
B.A.R. said:
Here, we are, my unexpected source of gambling income the past few years, the NFL..

I say that holding my breath, but for some reason the past 3 years I have done really solid in the Niffel.

Why? Good question. I think the diversity of my plays is the biggest part...

What will I bet this year?

Team Totals on occasion
Live totals
Live sides
Occasional pre-game side
Early season player props
1Q live totals (the ole Hunt special)
ML parlays
Occasional teaser

On the last two, those are maybe a handful of times in the season.

Anyways, I'll try and post as many as I can. Only a few guys can successfully post all their live bets (Hunt, big units) fast enough to help others. The NFL will be easier than college for myself to do that.

That is enough of the intro...

Onto TNF...

I would not be surprised if the Lions won this one on the field. The injury to Kelce is giving me some more pause though (no betting AGAINST injuries)


Detroit TT o23.5 -115 @ BETONLINE
Click to expand...
Joined you on this for 1u. See about 50/50 on the sides. Will say this. Assuming Kelce out he and Jones are kc 2nd and 3rd best players. If Detroit cant do it tonight then idk when. Think another starting kc DL is out too.

Love your 3u on Jags which is what i have. Feel like injuries only thing can stop them winning that division. I also played them at 18 to 1 for half unit to have most regular season wins. Assuming they dominate division and they get their toughest games at home. Gl
 
lvmike32 said:
Joined you on this for 1u. See about 50/50 on the sides. Will say this. Assuming Kelce out he and Jones are kc 2nd and 3rd best players. If Detroit cant do it tonight then idk when. Think another starting kc DL is out too.

Love your 3u on Jags which is what i have. Feel like injuries only thing can stop them winning that division. I also played them at 18 to 1 for half unit to have most regular season wins. Assuming they dominate division and they get their toughest games at home. Gl
Click to expand...

Yeah if Lions can’t compete tonight vs an elite squad missing so much production it’s unlikely to think they will join the big 2 in the NFC at any point. I think they can, though, tonight.
 
lvmike32 said:
Joined you on this for 1u. See about 50/50 on the sides. Will say this. Assuming Kelce out he and Jones are kc 2nd and 3rd best players. If Detroit cant do it tonight then idk when. Think another starting kc DL is out too.

Love your 3u on Jags which is what i have. Feel like injuries only thing can stop them winning that division. I also played them at 18 to 1 for half unit to have most regular season wins. Assuming they dominate division and they get their toughest games at home. Gl
Click to expand...
You were the one that got me started on Duval.

I should have credited you up there for getting the wheels rolling!!
 
I wonder if there's any value taking the Chiefs -4 tonight, since the line has fallen three points?! I mean everyone seems to be on the Detroit Lion hype train, which they were on at the beginning of last year as well and we all know what happened last year
 
Vapster said:
I wonder if there's any value taking the Chiefs -4 tonight, since the line has fallen three points?! I mean everyone seems to be on the Detroit Lion hype train, which they were on at the beginning of last year as well and we all know what happened last year
Click to expand...
Well, I don't ever like to bet AGAINST injuries.

Just saying
 
B.A.R. said:
Here, we are, my unexpected source of gambling income the past few years, the NFL..

I say that holding my breath, but for some reason the past 3 years I have done really solid in the Niffel.

Why? Good question. I think the diversity of my plays is the biggest part...

What will I bet this year?

Team Totals on occasion
Live totals
Live sides
Occasional pre-game side
Early season player props
1Q live totals (the ole Hunt special)
ML parlays
Occasional teaser

On the last two, those are maybe a handful of times in the season.

Anyways, I'll try and post as many as I can. Only a few guys can successfully post all their live bets (Hunt, big units) fast enough to help others. The NFL will be easier than college for myself to do that.

That is enough of the intro...

Onto TNF...

I would not be surprised if the Lions won this one on the field. The injury to Kelce is giving me some more pause though (no betting AGAINST injuries)


Detroit TT o23.5 -115 @ BETONLINE
Click to expand...

B.A.R. said:
Here, we are, my unexpected source of gambling income the past few years, the NFL..

I say that holding my breath, but for some reason the past 3 years I have done really solid in the Niffel.

Why? Good question. I think the diversity of my plays is the biggest part...

What will I bet this year?

Team Totals on occasion
Live totals
Live sides
Occasional pre-game side
Early season player props
1Q live totals (the ole Hunt special)
ML parlays
Occasional teaser

On the last two, those are maybe a handful of times in the season.

Anyways, I'll try and post as many as I can. Only a few guys can successfully post all their live bets (Hunt, big units) fast enough to help others. The NFL will be easier than college for myself to do that.

That is enough of the intro...

Onto TNF...

I would not be surprised if the Lions won this one on the field. The injury to Kelce is giving me some more pause though (no betting AGAINST injuries)


Detroit TT o23.5 -115 @ BETONLINE
Click to expand...
Adding

Detroit TT o23.5 -130
ASB Receiving yards O73.5 -115
 
GL BAR. I like that Detroit TT.

Seems to me that the line dipped a bit too much. No Kelce may make Pat come out with a chip on his shoulder. He will have to score to keep up tonight IMO.

That said, I really like what your Lions are up to. They were fun as hell to watch last year, I hope they take the next step.
 
Coverdatspred said:
GL BAR. I like that Detroit TT.

Seems to me that the line dipped a bit too much. No Kelce may make Pat come out with a chip on his shoulder. He will have to score to keep up tonight IMO.

That said, I really like what your Lions are up to. They were fun as hell to watch last year, I hope they take the next step.
Click to expand...
I agree.

Definitely no play on Detroit side or ML

You all know how I feel on wagering AGAINST injuries.

I'll obviously stay tuned for live bets.
 
I heard something the other day, Lions defense the second half of last year was top 10 or so, absolute oppo of what they were the first 8 games when they were historically bad. They were getting torched in man, went to more zone coverage and it completely changed their fortunes. Then they fortified their secondary in the offseason. A quick scan of the numbers bears this out. The gal on pregame referenced the 45 they scored -- but still lost to Seattle -- last year. That was well before they retooled their def approach. I like the Lions to cover and following Bar on the TT.
 
T-Squared said:
I heard something the other day, Lions defense the second half of last year was top 10 or so, absolute oppo of what they were the first 8 games when they were historically bad. They were getting torched in man, went to more zone coverage and it completely changed their fortunes. Then they fortified their secondary in the offseason. A quick scan of the numbers bears this out. The gal on pregame referenced the 45 they scored -- but still lost to Seattle -- last year. That was well before they retooled their def approach. I like the Lions to cover and following Bar on the TT.
Click to expand...
Yes, there was that big change really around the Miami game just before Halloween. After that, they really took off.
 
Yuck all around.

But, it happens.

Detroit offense was not good tonight.

Defense played well.

I'll take the 1-0 and back to the well on Sunday
 
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