NFL Week 10 Parlay (+282): Bears Outlast Lions in Shootout
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Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago
Has Detroit's Defense Improved?
It's an objective fact that, since its bye week, Detroit is allowing fewer points than it did before.
But this fact largely owes to its success against Green Bay.
This season, the Packer offense has been uniquely limited -- it ranks 27th in points per game.
Aaron Rodgers is having the worst season of his career, in terms of passer rating, although the lack of quality in his team's wide receiver group is hardly his fault.
Before facing Green Bay, the Lions allowed Miami and Dallas to exceed their regular season scoring averages.
So, it s is still very much the case that opposing offenses are performing better than usual against the Lion defense.
More Zone
Since its bye week, Detroit has made some changes in its defense in an attempt to limit opposing scoring.
One change has been to play more zone defense.
This is a change that suits Bear quarterback Justin Fields because he prefers passing the ball against zone coverages.
Whereas he ranks 34th with a 66.0 passer rating against man, he ranks 12th with a 96.8 passer rating against zone.
Justin Fields' Mobility
Fields has become even more of a runner in recent weeks.
Chicago's more recent play-calling tendencies are treating him like Lamar Jackson, a quarterback who thrives on designed run plays.
Before four games ago, he had one game in which he attempted over 10 rushes -- that was in Week 1 when he attempted 11 rushes.
In three of his past four games, though, he attempted 12 or more rushes.
He has the speed to take advantage of holes in the defense by bursting through them for significant gains.
Hence, he has a long run of 20 or more yards in three of his past four games.
Also, Fields is generally an efficient runner. He averages 6.6 YPC.
Lions vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
Detroit is particularly vulnerable to Fields' running ability because, throughout the season, the Lions have struggled against mobile quarterbacks.
In Week 1, they allowed Eagle quarterback Jalen Hurts to achieve his season-high rushing total in a game -- Hurts ran for 90 yards.
Against Seattle, the Lions allowed quarterback Geno Smith to run for 49 yards, which is a season-high for him.
Most recently, Aaron Rodgers ran for two first downs on third-and-long situations last week.
Run Game in General
Of course, Rodgers is not a mobile quarterback, so he did not generally punish the Lion defense with his legs.
But Hurts is such a quarterback and so is Fields.
Both quarterbacks, like Lamar Jackson, will cash in on the threat posed by their running backs.
Chicago will run plays in which Fields can hand the ball off to a running back or keep it himself.
The Bears have multiple dangerous running backs, including Khalil Herbert who is enjoying a breakout season. -- Herbert is averaging six YPC.
Overall, the Lions suffer the second-worst rush defense, rendering them vulnerable to Fields, Herbert, and David Montgomery.
D'Andre Swift
Lion running back D'Andre Swift is expected to be much more involved in his team's offense on Saturday.
Swift's touches have been limited in number as he works his way back from injury.
The drop-off from Swift to his backups is steep in terms of playmaking ability.
In limited action, Swift has two 50-yard runs, adding a big-play threat on the ground to the consistent efficiency that he demonstrates both as a runner and as a pass-catcher.
Chicago's Run Defense
Both Swift and backup running back Jamaal Williams have a favorable matchup against Chicago's third-to-last ranked run defense.
Among other things, the Bears miss departed star linebacker Roquan Smith.
They are also struggling to set the edge.
They'll struggle more in this respect if Al-Quadin Muhammad cannot play.
The defensive end is looking like a no-go on Sunday, because of his ankle injury.
With Robert Quinn now in Philadelphia, the Bears are already short of talent at the position.
Chicago's General Defensive Woes
Besides missing talent especially in the front seven, the Bears lack defensive leadership.
Losing two of its top players has hurt the defense in terms of morale as well as ability.
Since Quinn left, Chicago's defense has collapsed, allowing 49 to Dallas and 35 to Miami.
Jared Goff
Lion quarterback Jared Goff has the advantage of facing a Bear pass rush that will allow the opposing quarterback all day to throw.
Especially with Quinn and Smith gone, Chicago's pass rush has fallen off.
The Bears have now dropped to 25th in sack rate.
While having all day to throw will further help the "over" hit, I like the Bears because I don't trust Goff to keep pace with Fields.
Whereas Fields is parlaying his improved threat as a runner with an improvement in passing -- his passer rating is over 110 in his past two games -- Goff's passer rating failed to reach 81 in over half his games.
Goff makes too many awful throws -- according to the metrics, he has thrown 18 interceptable passes -- without having the running ability to make up for them that Fields possesses.
Best Bet: Parlay Bears -3 at +100 & Over 48.5 at -110 at +282 with BetOnline
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Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago
Has Detroit's Defense Improved?
It's an objective fact that, since its bye week, Detroit is allowing fewer points than it did before.
But this fact largely owes to its success against Green Bay.
This season, the Packer offense has been uniquely limited -- it ranks 27th in points per game.
Aaron Rodgers is having the worst season of his career, in terms of passer rating, although the lack of quality in his team's wide receiver group is hardly his fault.
Before facing Green Bay, the Lions allowed Miami and Dallas to exceed their regular season scoring averages.
So, it s is still very much the case that opposing offenses are performing better than usual against the Lion defense.
More Zone
Since its bye week, Detroit has made some changes in its defense in an attempt to limit opposing scoring.
One change has been to play more zone defense.
This is a change that suits Bear quarterback Justin Fields because he prefers passing the ball against zone coverages.
Whereas he ranks 34th with a 66.0 passer rating against man, he ranks 12th with a 96.8 passer rating against zone.
Justin Fields' Mobility
Fields has become even more of a runner in recent weeks.
Chicago's more recent play-calling tendencies are treating him like Lamar Jackson, a quarterback who thrives on designed run plays.
Before four games ago, he had one game in which he attempted over 10 rushes -- that was in Week 1 when he attempted 11 rushes.
In three of his past four games, though, he attempted 12 or more rushes.
He has the speed to take advantage of holes in the defense by bursting through them for significant gains.
Hence, he has a long run of 20 or more yards in three of his past four games.
Also, Fields is generally an efficient runner. He averages 6.6 YPC.
Lions vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
Detroit is particularly vulnerable to Fields' running ability because, throughout the season, the Lions have struggled against mobile quarterbacks.
In Week 1, they allowed Eagle quarterback Jalen Hurts to achieve his season-high rushing total in a game -- Hurts ran for 90 yards.
Against Seattle, the Lions allowed quarterback Geno Smith to run for 49 yards, which is a season-high for him.
Most recently, Aaron Rodgers ran for two first downs on third-and-long situations last week.
Run Game in General
Of course, Rodgers is not a mobile quarterback, so he did not generally punish the Lion defense with his legs.
But Hurts is such a quarterback and so is Fields.
Both quarterbacks, like Lamar Jackson, will cash in on the threat posed by their running backs.
Chicago will run plays in which Fields can hand the ball off to a running back or keep it himself.
The Bears have multiple dangerous running backs, including Khalil Herbert who is enjoying a breakout season. -- Herbert is averaging six YPC.
Overall, the Lions suffer the second-worst rush defense, rendering them vulnerable to Fields, Herbert, and David Montgomery.
D'Andre Swift
Lion running back D'Andre Swift is expected to be much more involved in his team's offense on Saturday.
Swift's touches have been limited in number as he works his way back from injury.
The drop-off from Swift to his backups is steep in terms of playmaking ability.
In limited action, Swift has two 50-yard runs, adding a big-play threat on the ground to the consistent efficiency that he demonstrates both as a runner and as a pass-catcher.
Chicago's Run Defense
Both Swift and backup running back Jamaal Williams have a favorable matchup against Chicago's third-to-last ranked run defense.
Among other things, the Bears miss departed star linebacker Roquan Smith.
They are also struggling to set the edge.
They'll struggle more in this respect if Al-Quadin Muhammad cannot play.
The defensive end is looking like a no-go on Sunday, because of his ankle injury.
With Robert Quinn now in Philadelphia, the Bears are already short of talent at the position.
Chicago's General Defensive Woes
Besides missing talent especially in the front seven, the Bears lack defensive leadership.
Losing two of its top players has hurt the defense in terms of morale as well as ability.
Since Quinn left, Chicago's defense has collapsed, allowing 49 to Dallas and 35 to Miami.
Jared Goff
Lion quarterback Jared Goff has the advantage of facing a Bear pass rush that will allow the opposing quarterback all day to throw.
Especially with Quinn and Smith gone, Chicago's pass rush has fallen off.
The Bears have now dropped to 25th in sack rate.
While having all day to throw will further help the "over" hit, I like the Bears because I don't trust Goff to keep pace with Fields.
Whereas Fields is parlaying his improved threat as a runner with an improvement in passing -- his passer rating is over 110 in his past two games -- Goff's passer rating failed to reach 81 in over half his games.
Goff makes too many awful throws -- according to the metrics, he has thrown 18 interceptable passes -- without having the running ability to make up for them that Fields possesses.
Best Bet: Parlay Bears -3 at +100 & Over 48.5 at -110 at +282 with BetOnline
