Lets talk NBA futures for 2006-2007

[B.A.R.]

Just happened to see team wins are up over at Pinnacle. Always looking for a bit of value over there each season. Last year was successful with big bet on DET over 50.5 wins and split Miami Under(w) and Indiana Over(L).

First of all, they got their shit staright with Miami this year. Last year they were vastly over-valued for regular seaosn at 59 wins. This is not a regular season team. No team with O'Neal ever really has been or will be. This year the number is set at 52. I figure they get over slightly but wouldn't touch it.

The hometown boys here in the D are at 52.5. I do think they get over this with ease but I am not going to play it. Its no lock like last year. Adjusment period with some new guys and perhaps a hangover effect. I got many more thoughts on them as season draws near. Also I wouldn't be suprised if they won 60 again. This team may be a bit better than last years. You may say 'huh?' I would too. But, in the changing climate of the NBA this team is more suited to win IMO.

One I love and will unload on once I get MasatCappa's(Arenas4mvp) thoughts is the Wizards OVER 39.5 -108. This has to be insulting for your team bro. I mean seriously, a 5th seed last year that I think is improved in a conference thats up for grabs under .500 projected. Wow. I think they win mid to upper 40's. I will hit this after I get your thoughts.

Cleveland and Chicago are both at 47.5. The defense that Chicago can put on floor with Nocioni, Wallace, Brown and Tyrus Thomas is gonna be stifling. It will in turn make Hinrich and Gordon look like better defenders. This should be enough to get them to 50 wins. I also think the Cavs will get near 50. The only problem with playing these is Central division will be a dogfight this year. This will be a competitive division no doubt.

Thats my early thoughts. Washington is an easy one IMO and will hit that soon upon thoughts from my resident Wizards expert.

 

[abcs]

Hustle man says fade Dallas

My bet would be that the Bulls will be vastly overrated and take the under in their wins. Take under in portland as well even if its 20!

 

[scourge]

BAR,

alright I love the Wizards over 39.5, and you're right that number is insulting as hell to the team.

My two other leans right now have to be Orlando Magic Over 35.5 wins and Memphis Grizzles Over 40.5. DHoward alone is going to get that team 20 wins in the 1st 2 months of the season. They should be able to scrap out 16 more wins during the regualr season and if it matters I have them going to the playoffs. That team has a shit load of potential and an excellent coach in Hill. It wouldn't suprise me in the slightest if they win 40 something games and take the 7 or 8 seed in the East.

Memphis will find a way to win 41 games, they'll win 30-31 games at home and how can they not pick up 11=12 games on the road.

Possible long shot plays on Toronto Over 32.5 wins and Lakers Over 43.5. Don't want anything to do with the Pistons Wins this year, I'd rather just sit back and watch the team for a while to see how the new core will gel.

 

[Inspekdah]

Talent wise the Bulls are probably being overrated. However, this team does not take ONE game off. They never will. This automatically makes fading them pointless. When most teams take off say every 5th game the Bulls never mail it in.

Plus they addressed their only glaring weakness with Wallace...they were beaten so bad inside sometimes it did not matter what they did. Gordan is only going to get better at involving his teammates... I think 47.5 is actually a low total.

Plus this Sasho guy or whatever... will be huge... we couldn't defend anyone taller than Dwane Wade and it showed. Kobe lit us up twice I believe.. and any time we played a team with a 6-5 to 6-8 scorer that was too quick for Nocci we were toast. I think we have an answer to every player in this league.

Plus we get 4 games against the Knicks, Hawks, Celtics, Bucks (where's your PG?). I think each of those will be 3-1 @ worst.



That Wiz one looks good... but I think it will be close to that number since they never can win big games on the road.

 

[tuck321]

My first bet is Atlanta over 28.5. I like who they lost and I like Speedy and Wright as pick ups. The team won 26 games last year and I see a much better organized situation this year with low 30 wins. GL

 

[B.A.R.]

Great Thought Fellas...

Tuck-Good to see you over here man. i always enjoy reading your NBA posts. I too was looking at ATL since I posted this. The talent is abundant and can only get better. Your correct about those FA's and they may well have better chemistry now. I am going to look much harder at this one.

Spek-I totally agree with your Bulls assesment. They are like a mixy=ture of Detroit/Indiana from this decade. Skiles is a lot like Carlisle in his tea,ms don't get to take games off. Thats what these Pacer/Piston teams from a few years ago fed off. That right thjere is worth 5-8 wins a year IMO. I am definitely playing that one.

Scourge-I forgot your a DC guy as well so thanks for your Wizards thoughts. I will say ORL is another team I like a lot as well. Jameer and Howard are a nice little combo and believe it or not Darko brings defense to the team. Interested to see him in a full year down there. He averaged over 2 blocks per game in his ORL tenure. Hedu settled in nicely there and Grants gonna give it another go. That only helps the team with his leadership out on the court. I do think they will make a playoff run. Good chemistry and a lot of talent and a Top 10 NBA player in Dwight Howard.

ABC's-I will understand anyone that says Bulls overrated. I can see reasoning for this and time for players to jell. My prediction for that team is a damn good regular season..say 53-39. Then, they lose in first round again.



Great thoughts guys..keep em coming.

 

[HUNT]

I kind of like the nuggets O 41.5...If they stay injury free they might get 45 IMO.

 

[abcs]

I think my Hawks will improve this year not sure what their total is it. But they have some solid pieces..

 

[The Farm]

I agree,
Under 40 is a blow below the belt.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Anyone on the Hornets 40.5 O/U
Last Year - 38-44

Losing PJ Brown, Speedy Claxton, J.R. Smith, Kirk Snyder, and Aaron Williams
Gaining Peja, Tyson Chandler, Bobby Jackson, Jannero Pargo, and Rookies Cedric Simmons and Hilton Armstrong

The floor should open up a lot more this year for the Hornets adding Peja and Bobby Jackson. The only 3 pt threat last year was Rasual Butler. Even if Chandler, Armstrong, and Simmons are going to be inside, the floor space and Chris Paul should allow for more points than expected from this group. Should be better defensively inside with Chandler.

I like the over.

 

[whoispittsnogle]

I like both the Wizards 39.5 and Magic 35.5. The Wizards will miss Jefferies versatility a little bit but he sucked most of the time anyways. And Gil is just baller so they should do about the same as they did last year. The Magic are better this year although I don't think picking up JJ Redick was a smart move. Their guards and undersized but who cares they're not trying to win a championship. I think both teams will be able to do around .500

I DO NOT like the Bulls bet...yeah Big Ben was a good addition and Tyrus Thomas has lots of potential but this is a very very young and inexperienced team. They'll need time to gel. It's ridiculous how these idiots on ESPN are ranking them as high as second best team in the east. Also like someone mentioned, Chicago inside just sucks. Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas are both great weak side help defenders. They get the blocks but they're not particularly good at on ball defense. Wallace is too short and Thomas is too skinny. Brown is probably their best bet at on ball defense on opposing big men. Nocioni is actually surprisingly good too. But their D is nothing spectacular imo.

Also OP, Kirk Hinrich is probably their best defender.

And come on! We're talking about the HAWKS. Every year their loaded with TALENT and POTENTIAL and every year they just end up sucking a gigantic cock.

What do you guys think about the Celtics 35? They're looooooaded with talents but I don't know if they're ready to gel yet...

 

[tuck321]

Utah over 39 minus 21 cents 2 units. Keep looking at this team. Seem loaded with impact players that are finally healthy and ready to roll. Sloan remarried probably in a little saner mode. GL

 

[tuck321]

Let me add, I expect to be betting this team on a almost daily basis initally.

 

[Seabass]

pittsnogle, I have a thread a few down from here on the Celtics O/U prop. If its where it was when I hit it, I think you should nail it.

The Washington one sticks out to me like a sore thumb. Did they lose anyone other than Jared Jeffries? What are the additions, changes? I would nail Washington but I haven't kept up with the NBA this offseason that much, and I feel like someone knows something that we dont'. What are the downsides, here?

 

[B.A.R.]

SeaBass...iin all honesty I find a lot of these can be soft each year. Shit I grabbed det at 50.5 last year and Miami under 59...easy as hell wins...

There was another great one year before but I cannot member

 

[tuck321]

Added 2 more. Spurs under 55.5 minus 15 cents and Bucks under 40.5. Seeing a very competitive year for these teams and the Bucks health issues---. Read a breakdown of the Spurs I liked in the San Antonio paper. Guy was asked about the team this year. "Old and unmotivated"

 

[tuck321]

This is addictive. Toronto 34 minus 8 cents over. Finally a quality GM. A complimentry big man Rasho to back up Bosh. No head cases and i believe a more team oriented quality point guard with Ford. Would have thought their total and the 40.5 of Bucks would be reversed.

 

[Seabass]

Tuck, I like the Spurs and Bucks bets...particularly the Spurs, IMO. The bet that I don't like, though, is Toronto. The team is organized better now without the chucker Mike James, and I think Villanueva overperformed his talent last year...but is Ford and Bosh enough to carry a team? I'm not convinved...

 

[abcs]

Hawks make the playoffs this year. IMO

I like the new additions to the bulls that draft pick will be a sleeper.. also nocioni is a tough sob

 

[Inspekdah]

Bucks UNDER may be the BEST bet on the board. Look at their conference/division. How many gimmies will they have... if any? They traded away TJ Ford and without him they don't have a true PG. Charlie V is way too finess. I think this team is trying to put together the new breed of 5 skilled players who can all shoot and score... but it's got major holes. They couldn't buy a win down the stretch when it counted most. I think they may be the basement team of the central this year.

 

[B.A.R.]

I tend to agree with you Spek. Step back for these chotches.

 

[Inspekdah]

Glad you do... right now the best prop I can lock in on this is under 42.5 -150. I like it though... Bucks will not play above .500 ball ... they are a bad road team and have no depth. Only thing they worries me now is the x factor is Bobby Simmons.. he's a quality defender and if he can compliment Redd better than he did last season they could do better..

right now though they are so thin at quality big men.. and PG's... thats a recipe for DISASTER. Redd doesn't make his teammates better other than spread the defense with his range...

May do something like 3 units to win 2 on this one. May tail Washington over small and Bulls for a half just to have something to cheer on.

 

[hile75]

one would think that washington should have no problem putting together a winning record in the east thsi year

 

[B.A.R.]

Washington is a lock..lol

Honestly. Thats only one I played so far. Wondering if I wanna tie up cash offshore with all the weirdness going on.

 

[RSMS9999]

early looks

magic over
warriors over
kings under
raptors over

 

[Inspekdah]

Yeah, who knows what the fuck could happen between now and ... late April

 

[Inspekdah]

when it comes to offshore books that is...