Let's talk group stage Game 2s

[Joe Public]

Some really random thoughts, then a couple of questions for you. Hope you'll chime in.

One of the things I love about the WC is how the group stage presents bounce back opportunities and, on the other side of the same coin, chances for teams to completely quit.

I'd love to say I've watched every game so far and can write up bits on every team, but I can't. I've only seen maybe 50% of the games, maybe a little more, so my reads aren't as complete as I'd like to be.

For example, does anyone have a team that really blew them away defensively?

I didn't see Germany so maybe they qualify, and of just a handful of wagers so far my only mistake was playing Nigeria rather than the under in that game—but I didn't see the game so I don't know if they (and/or Iran) count, it was sort of lock-down defense as advertised or if it was just bad football.

Funny, I was going to say soccer there, but it just felt wrong.

Anyway, Greece normally fills that defensive bill, but they didn't impress me. Italy (full disclosure, who I root for) only occasionally seemed sound at the back. Among the teams I missed, there have to be a couple that are sound defensively, no?

To that point, one of the things that stood out to me in the games I did watch was how the back line for a lot of teams seemed willing to give up chances.

Chile
Australia
Spain (sweet Jesus)
USA
Ghana
England & Italy (somewhat)

I feel like all these teams are ready to give up goals.

Conversely, I was really underwhelmed by England and Russia offensively.

Actually, South Korea didn't inspire much confidence either.

I really expected more from England and Russia, not just in terms of goals or even shots, but more fluidity. I really wasn't impressed. For example, take away Rooney, who's going to score for England? Did anyone really worry you?

Now, I suppose you could say the same for Italy and Balotelli, but at least Italy looks like they're ready to be there. As an Italy fan I wasn't thrilled with part of the defensive play against England. An entire half of the pitch seemed to be able to roam free all game. But at least this team looks ready to be there.

Ditto France on the desire to be there.

This seems like a given, but especially with teams like Italy and France it's not.

In fact, I'm tempted to say Spain has a total hangover in this tournament and fails to get out of the group stage. It's obviously all about tomorrow. And with that I'm very tempted to put a bit on the over 3 for plus-money and take my chances.

Spain either lays down and quits, or they win 3-1 and try to get back into things. Either way, given the goal differential, they kind of have to open it up. And I don't see how Chile plays any other way. They don't feel like a team that's going to slow it down.

On the other end of the spectrum, I liked what I saw offensively from Costa Rica and Chile.

Sorry, I'm sort of all over the place. I should really go by group or whatever, but the WC is so awesome I get caught up in it all.

Let's get to the questions.

1. Who are your top two defensive teams in this WC?

2. I didn't see Portugal's first game, do you think they are a total shitshow and mail this WC in? Because if Altidore is out, I have a ton of trouble seeing the US compete against a motivated Portugal. What I saw yesterday strategically from the US was a mess. Essentially a refusal to control the ball combined with a willingness to turn the ball over and try to withstand a rush. You can say that was because they had the lead, but if you have the lead, why are you trying to press the ball up the pitch with every throw-in? Instead of trying to squeeze it into spaces that aren't there, even if you really want to generate offense, maybe you get it to someone in a position who can set up some offense. Anyway, point being, I want to bet Portugal, anyone want to talk me out of it?

3. I also want to look at Ghana's over in their next match. They have to realize the sea change their subs brought yesterday. It totally changed their style for the better. Ghana is better when they're attacking. Now that they have a group loss, I feel like they're going to have to press a bit. Disagreement?

4. I want to look to back Ecuador and Argentina in their next games. Tell me I'm crazy.

5. As I mentioned, I didn't see the Nigeria game, but I want to believe there's value in their next game against Bosnia—who I did see. Good effort from them, but they didn't really strike me as world class. Again, I need help on Nigeria.

6. The lack of draws so far stands out. Part of me thinks this is part of the 'these teams all have defensive problems' issue, but I'd love to hear more thoughts on this. Now that teams have other teams on tape, do the goals slow down, are these teams just that offensive as a tournament? Thoughts?

7. Can we count on Germany and the Netherlands to produce offensively?

That's it for now, I really would love to hear what people think here. Tons of knowledge on football in here, and really almost no drama.

At least, so says the guy who hasn't been around in forever. Ha.

Oh, last thing, what kind of unholy fucking piece of shit blows up a WC viewing party in Nigeria?

Fuck that person with all the broomsticks in all the fucking holes. Twice.

 

[ArizonaKid]

Disagree about England, I thought Sterling and Sturridge looked good out there and capable of creating chances/goals, thought England's problems lay in midfield with Henderson and Gerrard. Think Ross Barkley needs to start next match.

Agree the over in Germany/Ghana worth a strong look.

 

[braves]

Wow question #1 is hard. Germany is 1, not sure about the second. But I don't think Spain's defense is as bad as it looked.

2. Think the Jozy injury is huuuuge.

3. They won't have any possession in that game vs Germany, but they may look better in the attack because they can counter pretty well,

4. Ecuador is not good , but Honduras is worse, think I like the over more in that game. Ecuador is a mess defensively. I actually do think Argentina pounds Iran

5. Someone pointed out in in-game that Nigeria will probably look better vs Bosnia because they won't have to build out of the back and will be able to counter(manchesteruk I think). I'm a fan of Bosnia though

6. Not sure. Agree it has something to do with some poor defensives

7. Germany in the group stages, of course. Netherlands against the other two group foes, absolutely. Germany deep into this, I don't know, maybe lack of a great striker hurts them. Netherlands defense will bring them back to life sometime coming up, it could happen tomorrow.

I'm like 0-5 on posted picks, so I may not know wtf I'm talking about.

One more thing, that Greece score is deceiving I think . Different ballgame if that dude doesn't miss a wide open header to cut the game to 2-1 with 30 minutes left.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Joe

Long time, no talk. I think US/Port is an even match up and I will be on the US at (hopefully) an outlandish price.

 

[~Utah]

not game 2 or anything but if Croatia had Mandzukic they would have beaten Brazil even them cheating. If they go up against a good offensive team then they are beat. I'd also worry about that team without Hulk

 

[Joe Public]

You guys are heroes among men.

Think Ross Barkley needs to start next match.

I like this change, AK. One thing I really like with England is the situation they're in. They need to have a strong game next game. Pretty much the entire reason I was on the US yesterday was the spot. First game, historical foe, it set up really well. Well, England now ends up in one of those spots where the franchise, if you will, needs a good showing.

Part of me thinks you're going to see a lot of the will to win from England and I'll likely back them here.


I think US/Port is an even match up and I will be on the US at (hopefully) an outlandish price.

Not gonna lie, when I saw your name pop up in Rex's thread my jaw dropped a bit. Great to see you, Gorg. You may be right about the price. My two major considerations here that will keep me off Portugal would be price and will they quit. I don't think they quit, but you never know. It happens. But the price could keep me off. Maybe.

Great post, Braves.

I actually do think Argentina pounds Iran

Yeah, I feel like I'm going to have to get in on this. Funny thing, when I bet Nigeria I said to myself, "You'll never go broke betting against Iran." Well, I'm now 0-1, either I'm going to make that back or I'm going to be proven a liar.

I may also see if I can get a good number on Japan.

Someone pointed out in in-game that Nigeria will probably look better vs Bosnia because they won't have to build out of the back and will be able to counter(manchesteruk I think). I'm a fan of Bosnia though

Interesting, I like the insight. I'd feel better if I saw them. They're such a mystery to me, it kind of pisses me off.


One more thing, that Greece score is deceiving I think . Different ballgame if that dude doesn't miss a wide open header to cut the game to 2-1 with 30 minutes left.

I wanted to like Greece more than I did and I agree that scoreline isn't totally accurate, but honestly I didn't think Greece looked very good at all. They seem like a shell of what they once were. Now, one game is one game and obviously we don't want to totally overreact to any team. That said, I wasn't a fan.

A team I did want to see, and bet, and did neither was the Ivory Coast. Like Ghana, I've always kind of liked to see them succeed. As of right now, unfortunately, I have no read on them—and they won, so they might be OK settling for a draw in their next game.

You may or may not be able to tell, I'm a huge fan of motivation in these tournaments.

 

[braves]

What is funny is during the Greece game in the in-game here about half were impressed with Greece and thought they had the good run of play , while the other half had the same thoughts that you do about Greece.

Greece was forced to attack given how early they were scored upon. I thought they looked good and created chances once they were forced to play offensive. Unfortunately for them the goal differential will probably do them in .

Spain/Chile should be great tomorrow. Will be very interesting to see how Spain responds I know lots are counting them out, but I bet them at +100 to advance last Friday night after the group games. Just don't see them quitting. Guess I'll pay to see it.

 

[ArizonaKid]

Doesn't Mexico deserve recognition as one of the top 2 defenses thus far after back to back cleansheets ?

Worry I have about Spain is Iker, he looked awful vs the Netherlands and made a horrendous decision in the Champions League Final that but Athletico up 1-0. He had some moments in Champions League play but he was the backup GK for Madrid...perhaps he isn't what he used to be and is living off reputation now.

 

[Dollaz]

Bosnia/Nigeria has over written all over it. Bosnia will let up some goals, but their offensive attack is lethal.

I don't see a ton of love of Columbias defense, but I am impressed. Also, have to like Mexico.

Not betting Portugal, but I think they win (cant bet against USA)

Ghana has to go all out for sure, but their lack of finishing quality is concerning.

You shouldn't be crazy about backing Argentina, they are my favorite (tho I wasn't extremely impressed first match)

Why wouldn't you count on Germany and Netherlands to score goals?

 

[ManchesterUk]

I dont know much about football,and thats the truth,But as well as skill,match-up plays a big part.
Expecting some of these African countries to break down defensive minded teams,its just not going to happen ..they dont have the creativity.When teams attack them and they can play on the counter they are much more effective.
Englands offense (offense,wow really manuk ) looked the best its done for years,if anyone thinks were lacking offensively theyve not been watching our National side much,Pace scares defenders and we have that in abundance,Sterling had the Italian defenders nervous.Uruguays defense was made to look paceless by a guy who cant get a game,great match up for us.If we cant beat Uruguay we dont deserve to make the last 16.
Its funny I thought we played well and lost,apparently the usa were outplayed and won,weird how it goes.

Like B said we all watch it and most of the time were split 50/50... I remember a pen(forget which one) half of us thought pen,half didnt.

:cheers:

BTW how do you not bet cards in the Ecuador/Honduras game ? neither team can stay on their feet when making a challenge

 

[Joe Public]

Doesn't Mexico deserve recognition as one of the top 2 defenses thus far after back to back cleansheets ?

This is a really fair point. I intended to bet Mexico in their opener and missed it, then when I saw the rain I felt better about it even though the play would have cashed. That said, because of the rain I basically discounted the game which was a mistake. They did play well defensively—and frankly, offensively as well. I didn't see yesterday's game against Brazil, but you're dead on. Even if it's because your keeper stands on his head, you deserve a ton of credit for two clean sheets in a row.

Its funny I thought we played well and lost,apparently the usa were outplayed and won,weird how it goes]

I thought England v. Italy was one of the better, essentially top tier, matchups. Some of these other games the poor decisions and easy giveaways really stand out, but that didn't happen in England v. Italy. In fact, I think you could argue that because they both fielded solid squads it's easier to miss that both teams are just that. Whereas had England played an also ran (or Italy for that matter), the score line may have ended up 2-0 or 3-0.

I am, however, glad to see that others believe in England's offense here. I wasn't overly impressed, but I have every intention of backing them tomorrow so I hope you're all dead on there.

With the US, I wouldn't exactly say they were outplayed. I mean, they were in the second half. However, they also came out of halftime quite obviously trying to sit on the 1-0 lead. And I don't know if it's lack of experience with that type of football or that they're just really bad at it, but it basically led to Ghana controlling that half with relative ease. But one the score was back level you saw the teams were more evenly matched. The US doesn't strike me as fast as Ghana, but they were essentially able to match them in chances.

But that was another game where teams just gave the ball away left and right. Some of the decisions by both squads there, sweet mother of God they were horrible.

 

[GWarner27]

1. Who are your top two defensive teams in this WC?

not much defense is being played this year, which the goal-scoring is no surprise. Seems to me that there are a ton more open games than I remember in 2010 or the last Euro

3. I also want to look at Ghana's over in their next match. They have to realize the sea change their subs brought yesterday. It totally changed their style for the better. Ghana is better when they're attacking. Now that they have a group loss, I feel like they're going to have to press a bit. Disagreement?

not sure they can score much at all and are likely to play defensively to try to escape with a draw vs the Germans cuz I doubt they think they can beat them on anything but a counter (or really at all)

4. I want to look to back Ecuador and Argentina in their next games. Tell me I'm crazy.

I have questions about the ARG defense, but I'm not sure anyone remaining in their group can take advantage

7. Can we count on Germany and the Netherlands to produce offensively?

Si


I also think we should add Twinkie's thread from today in here to combine it all...

 

[GWarner27]

One more thing, that Greece score is deceiving I think . Different ballgame if that dude doesn't miss a wide open header to cut the game to 2-1 with 30 minutes left.

i had the +0.5, but I completely agree. Also the diving save in the first half to keep it 1-0 instead of 1-1 was massive as well

I like this change, AK. One thing I really like with England is the situation they're in. They need to have a strong game next game. Pretty much the entire reason I was on the US yesterday was the spot. First game, historical foe, it set up really well.

Is that how you spell homer?

Haha, i also love the motivation stuff and that was a major part of my lone win this WC on the under in BRA-MEX