Let's Dominate Best Ball drafts/Daily Fantasy/Player Props( futures and weekly)

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

Proud Member of Bills Mafia
What's up family

Crazy how time flies , this is my 40th season of fantasy football. πŸ€ͺπŸ€ͺ...
With only 4 days before the NFL kickoffs I've already done over 73 best ball drafts with another 12 on deck. ( Degenerate life ) ..
Will post my targets and players to avoid today

Plan on posting all my player prop bets ( futures and weekly )

Also my weekly key wheeled players for weekly fantasy ( dk) ...





Anyways Let's get to gambling



May we all live in fantastic health while making great wealth sports investing ..
 
Best Ball strategy

1. Load up on the flex positions in rounds 1-9.
Usually prefer to have 3-4 RB, 3-5 WR and possibly 1 TE if value slips somewhere... heading into round 10 ..Usually 3 of my 5 first picks are RB.

2. Avoid Quarterbacks until at least round 10 , then take 3 QBs anywhere from rounds 10-15.
Very similar to my regular 12 man league strategy ( often take only 1 QB in leagues/maybe 2 ) .

3. My favorite roster construction is
3 QB /. 6-7 RB /. 7-8 WR/. 3 TE




Lets go ( based on 12 entry league / 20 rounds )

1st round player rankings
1. CHASE
2. BIJAN
3. GIBBS
4 LAMB
5. JEFFERSON
6. HENRY. Ravens might have the most talented roster in the league. Wouldn't be surprised to see Henry score 22+ TDS this season ..Floor is super high as well baring injury of course .
7 BARKLEY. Crazy 425 touches last season .

8 ST. BROWN These next 5 WR are elite for PPR
9. NABERS
10. LONDON
11. B THOMAS JR.
12. NICO COLLINS


( Players I avoid =

BARKLEY Unless he falls to pick 7 or 8 ..All those touches in one season scare me away

CMC ..Sure he could lead the backs in scoring but there is no way I'm spending a 1st round pick on a player with major injury concerns ( especially with his playing style moving forward ) .

NACUA. Tough to predict of Stafford stays healthy ( could say that for any QB really , but back injuries SUCK ) ....

JEANTY. 2nd round sure, but there is so much proven talent on the board for round 1 that I just can't justify taking him before pick 13 at the earliest.



2ND ROUND TARGETS/ These players shouldn't slip to the 3rd round but a couple may in some drafts .
Love the RB'S I have grouped here. If a WR slips from above then go there but these players below are primes for huge fantasy seasons ( hopefully )

JEANTY. He shouldn't be here but if he is take him...

CHASE BROWN Mad Sleeper and ESPN raised him in their rankings to where I would draft him( picks 14-24+

JACOBS Always happy to get Jacobs in the 2nd and sometimes the 3rd round

IRVING. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being top 3 RB. ( PPR average )

K WILLIAMS. Everyone else in this offense is much riskier gamble that's depending on Stafford's health..Either way I think Williams gets his points

J TAYLOR
Colts should be a little better this season , can Taylor stay healthy ? He's my least favorite of these backs





Projected 2nd round players I'm STAYING away from

AJ BROWN. Don't have him on even one of the "billion" best ball teams ...Passing unless he fell to the end of the 3rd round ( picks 34-36)


MCCONKEY. We have a bunch of his rookie cards but no way do I think he should go in round 2 !!

ACHANE. Let someone else take him , Dolphins could be a real mess this season.
That being said just weeks ago before the injury I had ACHANE #9 overall ...Earliest I would take him is picks 25-26 ..Make sure you get Ollie Gordon 3 later ..

BOWERS.
May regret completely passing on him to this point , but I've seen him going picks 7-13 lately .. Late 2nd round is the earliest I'd take him...
 
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3rd round targets

Hoping any of the 2nd round targets above slips , but that should be doubtful ( maybe Irving ?)

HAMPTON
Going to get a ton of touches

HIGGINS
Didn't pay him all that money for nothing

MCBRIDE
Better find the end zone way more times this season lol ..

COOK.
Doubt he scores 18 TD again but I expect more catches this season.

MCLAURIN.

JOSH and LAMAR. Personally I don't like taking QBs before the 10th round , but if Josh or Lamar is there picks 30-36 Id strongly consider taking one of them

JSN.

T Hill Late 3rd round if there between picks 33-36






4th round Targets picks 37-48

KITTLE Only target I trust on the 49ers right now ..

HUBBARD. I'm real high on Chubba this season .He is a steal when he slips to the 5th ..Lately I've been taking him anywhere in the 4th.

HARRISON. Big time value here ...Next year I think he's a 2nd round pick

XAVIER WORTHY. Have him on 62% of my teams

KAMARA. Old reliable is going to catch his zillion check downs


G WILSON Bargin at this point

HENDERSON. Starting to go a little early for my liking ( picks 26-35) ....4th round for me




4th round or earlier players I'm avoiding = The quarterbacks , I want NO part of

DANIELS
HURTS
BURROW






5th round targets ( picks 48-60)
WR heavy round , some of these may even slip to the 6th

METCALF. Rodgers might hyper fixate on him

SUTTON. Big things in store for the Broncos this season

DJ MOORE. Bears offense should take a nice step forward ...Should catch 90+ balls again ..

CONNOR. Ageless wonder , strongly recommend Benson later

Jameson WILLIAMS.
 
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Switching gears to my largest Player prop investment this season ..

Wrote much of this back on July 26th in the wk 1 thread


Matthew GOLDEN OVER 675.5 YARDS -110
10 units to win $2k
Highly doubt the Packers drafted Golden so early to keep him under wraps..First time taking a first round wr for the pack in 23 years .Banged ..Believe they got an absolute steal at pick 23...
PACKS whole wr core is a walking mash unit that never seems to stay healthy ..
No Reason Golden can't go for 800+!!!
Main set of projections has 73 catches for 970+ yards .

Went through living in dumpy motels/sleeping overnight outside Walmarts with his mom to the NFL..This league loves feel good soap operas( or any other super drama lol)

I'm heavy on Golden with him on over 91% of my best ball teams ( drafted rounds 9 through early 6 now as he continues his massive DROP in ADP ) .
 
Week 1 player prop

My favorite player prop for the BILLS v RAVENS game

BATEMAN OVER 34.5 -115
To win 1.5 units

Bills may be going with a rookie 5th round pick at CB2 , heck he might even be CB1 if both starting CB are out ( Benford and White) ...Starting safety Bishop didn't get enough reps during the preseason ..Think the secondary gets torched. ...Ravens team total over is probably my bet of the week


Screenshot_20250902-123254.png
 
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I'm all in on Chase Brown this season. He's currently on over 80% of my best ball teams , also just took him with pick 23 in a $1k entry league ...

Predicting he has somewhere between 440 and 600+ yards

To win 6 units

+Screenshot_20250828-104242.png
 


No idea how I missed this ...Maybe it's time for new Contacts and glasses, again 🀣. ...My eyes are changing every 1.5/2 years now, this happened twice this week with work emails 😞 😞

Anyways sorry to ramble πŸ™ƒπŸ™ƒ


Thank you very much Brother !!!
May this be your most profitable football season to date πŸ€‘πŸ’΅πŸ’΅πŸ’΅πŸ’΅πŸ’ΈπŸ’ΈπŸ’ΈπŸ’Έ
 
Daily Fantasy for week 1 Sunday games

( DK)

The first thing I do is scourer the market looking for value across the board , finding players who I believe gave a good chance to far out perform their price ...Using a few of these players below will allow to also select expensive players like Chase , GIBBS , etc ...


WR Strongly suggest using at least 2 of three to fill in at WR or flex .

EGBUKA. 4600.
Plan on using him on at least 55% of my teams

Pearsall. 4500
Another player worth using often ( 28%)

GOLDEN. 4900
Should be the top packers wr today , especially when you factor injuries to Reed , Wicks , Williams .

Pittman. 4900
Indiana Jones at QB should help Pittman

DIGGS. 5300
Should be a PPR machine

HARRISON. 5500
Big season on tap

HUNTER. 5000
Like him and Thomas Jr today

Tet McMillan 5200
Probably the last time we see him at this price .



TE. The top 3 are on 69% of my teams .
HENRY. 3900
M TAYLOR. 3100
STRANGE. 3300
J SANDERS. 2900
CHIG. 3400
BARNER. 2800
T JOHNSON. 3000



QB.
Trev really stand out here .


LAWERENCE. 5300.
Should have a field day vs the Pitiful Panthers d

Rodgers. 5200
You know he wants to roast the Jets

Fields. 5400



RB.
I generally don't recommend saving money at RB ..Splurging is usually well worth it , but these 2 look to have some value

HUBBARD. 6000

WARREN 5200B



Defense

PATRIOTS 3100

SF. 2900

SEATTLE 2500
 
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