League Championship Series

[Dollaz]

Dodgers -145 (2 unit)
Tigers +115 (will add if they lose game 1)

My quick and easy breakdown of the teams:

Tigers starters vs. Red Sox starters (pitching)

Will the Red Sox have a better starter in any of the matchups this series?

Lester vs. Sanchez
Lackey vs. Scherzer
Buckholtz vs. Verlander
Peavy vs. Fister

Maybe game 4 the Sox have the edge. Game 1 could be considered a toss up, I guess, but Sanchez has had an outstanding year. But, the Tigers have a combined line of .378/.439/.577 vs. Lester in 173 PAs. Notables Hunter .433, Cabrera .526, V-Mart .427. Sox haven't seen Sanchez a lot, but they have hit .279 with a .791 OPS against.

Scherzer and Verlander over Lackey and Buckholtz is self explanatory. Sox have hit Fister better than Tigers have hit Peavy so I will give them an edge in game 4.

On offense, the Red Sox like to grind teams down with patience/high OBP type hitters. They like to get to those middle relievers in the 5/6th innings and just wear teams out. That is a successful strategy in the playoffs, imo. The problem for them is these Tigers pitchers do not walk many batters. Verlander walks the most at 3.1/9 innings, but the others really don't walk guys. I think that could neutralize something Boston is very successful at.

The Red Sox bench is vastly superior offensively. How much will that come into play in an American League series? Time will tell.

Bullpen. This is going to be interesting. The Sox have a far more reliable closer. But, the middle innings, I give the edge to the Tigers.

I picked Tigers in a long series mainly due to the superior rotation, but also bc they hit the Red Sox ace very well.

 

[scdoggy]

I'm never one to argue with plus money, but I don't like Det's pen and think that will be the difference here. Boston plays well together as a team and is much deeper as you pointed out.

As a fan I'd much rather see Det win as I detest the Red Sox, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Good luck.

 

[Dollaz]

When I first started looking, I thought the Sox had the far superior pen:

I use FIP. I know some don't like it, but it's the most reliable in my opinion.

Koji/Benoit:

1.61/2.01

Koji is certainly the better closer? By how much? Probably debateable. either way, if either team gets a lead in the 9th, I have faith that team will win.

But, outside of him, the Sox have Tazawa, Dempster, Workman from the right side and Breslow, Doubront from the left side.

Tigers have Veras, Alba, Porcello from the right side and Smyly from the left side as the primary relievers for this series.

I think the Tigers can get through the 7th/8th innings if need be with Veras/Smyly much easier than the Red sox can with Tazawa/Breslow/whoever.

Certainly for me, the big concerns on my Tigers ticket is how the bullpens will perform and if Miggy is healthy enough to produce. I just think the Tigers starting staff is getting overlooked. Mainly Sanchez, who did put out a stinker in the ALDS. But, on the year, 10 k/9, 2.7 bb, 0.45 HR. 2.6 ERA/2.39 FIP. Red Sox simply cannot match starter for starter with the Tigers.

 

[scdoggy]

Not sure I would agree that Verlander is obviously better than Buchholz either. Dude was 12-1 with an ERA well under 2 and opponents batting under .200 off him this season. Despite JV's impressive postseason so far, Buchholz is no pushover.

For my money I'd play Boston here, but if the Det pen can come up big they should win this.... I'm just not sure they can. GL...

 

[Dollaz]

Buckholtz only threw about 100 innings this year. Not that he was bad, but he was a bit luck with his ERA a full point lower than his FIP and his xFIP about 1.5 higher. In a big game, I don't think you can go in thinking Buckholtz can match Verlander.

 

[scdoggy]

Good luck with it Dollaz. I can see you've done your homework here. I still think Boston is an all around better team, and I'd value pens above SP in this series. Boston starters no slouches either though...

 

[Dollaz]

Bought out of my Tigers ticket with Red Sox at plus money. Now I make a little profit. The game last night is the type of game that turns a dead Boston team into a winning streak.

 

[Dollaz]

So I have a 3 unit to win 2 unit bet on Dodgers series. Obviously not looking good.

Do I just let it ride and hope for a miracle or try some back betting Cards each of the next 3 games? Two of them likely being underdogs.

 

[C-MAN]

I would bet StL today. If they lose today, I would stop as I think LA has a legit chance of winning the next 2

 

[Dollaz]

I would bet StL today. If they lose today, I would stop as I think LA has a legit chance of winning the next 2

I think its more likley Dodgers win game 5 and 6, but lose game 7 with Cards being a fave.