LCS Probs

[Alan Tongue]

Squeaked ahead in the divisional series. Some overs hit which was good. Market over corrects the totals in play-offs and shades the under too much

Again, percentage after home starter is their probability to win, number after the away starter is the expected number of runs. Starters are assumptions

Volquez 50.1% Estrada 8.49
Ventura 40.9% Price 8.15
Stroman 45.5% Cueto 8.84
Dickey 51.9% Medlen 9.21
Price 64.1% Volquez 8.53
Ventura 53.5% Stroman 8.73
Cueto 55.8% Stroman 8.25

Series: Kansas City 44.6%

Kansas City 4-0 3.8%
Kansas City 4-1 8.4%
Kansas City 4-2 14.2%
Kansas City 4-3 18.2%
Toronto 4-3 19.0%
Toronto 4-2 18.1%
Toronto 4-1 13.5%
Toronto 4-0 4.8%

 

[C-MAN]

Thanks Alan. I am eyeing up the overs in the series, so I like what I see with your projected runs scored.

 

[Timh]

Good stuff, appreciate the probabilities Alan. I had a question in the other thread, and was wondering before G5 of Mets/LAD what you would have made the Cubs at that point to win the WS? I was curious on that one as I saw 2.5/1 but felt like that was short.

 

[Alan Tongue]

Cubs were that price because they were already in the CS. Neither LAD or NYM were there, so theoretically the chances of them winning the WS were one step behind the Cubs. Same thing will happen in the two CS, whichever team wins the series first will be short compared to the two teams in the series not yet completed

 

[Timh]

Thanks Alan, and I agree on your series probability on Tor/KC. Toronto seems to be over priced to me. GL

 

[Alan Tongue]

Harvey 47.1% Lester 6.57
Syndergaard 48.2% Arrieta 6.64
Hendricks 48.7% DeGrom 7.94 (I don't play Cubs home totals)
Hammel 58.2% Matz 8.30
Lester 61.7% Harvey 7.84
Syndergaard 48.2% Arrieta 6.64
DeGrom 59.8% Hendricks 6.67

Series: NY Mets 42.4%

NY Mets 4-0 3.0%
NY Mets 4-1 8.0%
NY Mets 4-2 13.0%
NY Mets 4-3 18.4%
Cubs 4-3 19.2%
Cubs 4-2 18.8%
Cubs 4-1 14.0%
Cubs 4-0 5.5%

 

[Timh]

Alan interested in your probability and total projection on G4 with it now being Young vs. Dickey?