Late Night Degenerate NFL- Tactical Meeting-

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Broke even on the day once again amazing losing 2 big plays and winning 5 others, unreal how dumb I am every week---

Well lets get some winners for NFL tomorrow---- looking at the card we should be able to find something good in that league--


The Dubster likes Zona -2.5 over seattle I think David Hasslehoff is ready to play QB for Seattle and they are struggling--
NOt sure I love Zona after they fucked me last monday night, I find them overrated but better than Seattle, not sure how much they need that win if it may be a mail in game or maybe they revert back to good play as it was clear they cannot handle pressure game at home, they do better on sunday games for sure--
 
OF note is that I think the saints have major issues in the secondary----

Mike Mckenzie is out for the year and Arron Glenn also got hurt and I think he is out- NOt sure about Tracy POrter I think he is out, meanign the pathetic saints will have trouble stopping the chiefs receivers tandem of BOWE and Bradley- Gonzlex working the middle-- this may be a good game as I dont think the saints can field a NFL quality secondary---

ALert-- The worst player to ever play in the NFL is on saints safety Kevin KESMAHAR, tihs guy is horrible, he is out of control, gets burned over and over, Bengals fans remember how bad this guy is--

Starters may be Jason David and another rookie corner- with Kesvamahr backing them up watch out, I dont think Saints can cover -5 or even win wiht those guys--

Matt Ryan was having a field day throwing on Starters Mike Mckenzie and backup Aaron GLenn, now both are out?????

Classic -5 on the road with a team with literally NO D- this D blows, horrible,pathetic, inept, retards, no speed, no ball playing, no faith, no brains, no ability, no coaching, no ball skills, no positioning, no confidence, nothing at all you get the drift----

Saints are fielding a mickey mouse team vs the pass-- I will update this with starters who are playing, cause on the road vs even the young chiefs who are tuogh at home I dont think they can stop the chiefs much--
 
I'd really like to help right now, but holy f**k I'm drunk. Sorry, my mental acumen has left me for the evening.

You have no idea how many tries it took me to actually type this correctly.

Go us, tomorrow.

Hiccup.
 
New Orleans Saints must count on backup corners Jason David, Usama Young

Posted by <A href="http://blog.nola.com/saintsbeat/about.html" _extended="true">Mike Triplett, The Times-Picayune</A _extended="true"> November 12, 2008 7:59PM

Categories: Saints
medium_usama-young.jpg
Chris Granger, The Times-PicayuneSecond-year cornerback Usama Young will likely have a chance to make up for lost time when the Saints play the Chiefs this Sunday.
This isn't exactly a dream scenario for the Saints, having to turn to underachieving cornerbacks Jason David and Usama Young with the season on the line. The secondary was struggling even before starter Mike McKenzie went down with a season-ending knee injury last Sunday and veteran backup Aaron Glenn aggravated a nagging ankle injury.
Now they're down to veteran Randall Yag, David and Young as their top three corners as they head into this Sunday's game at Kansas City -- the first of many must-win games the next seven weeks.
But if there is a silver lining to be found, perhaps being thrown in there will give David and Young a chance to spark their flickering careers.
"I think the NFL is a lot about opportunities and what you do when you get the chance and the opportunity to play, " said David, who could vault back into the starting lineup Sunday after being inactive for the past two games. "It's really rare in this league, not so much to get a second chance, but to get a second opportunity to show what you can do.
"I think one thing with me, I just enjoy playing football. Whether I'm inactive one week, just being out there in practice is a blessing, or playing special teams. And just having this opportunity again is a blessing, and hopefully I make the most of it."
David, 26, had an infamously rough season in 2007 after he signed with the Saints as a restricted free agent. He started 12 games and intercepted three passes, but he was repeatedly burned with deep passing plays.
He has shown some progress this season, playing well in some brief opportunities as the No. 3 nickel back. Last season he often got caught sneaking a peek into the backfield while receivers ran by him, but this season he has done a better job of keeping the receiver in front of him.
His best moment was an interception in Week 6 against Oakland. But when Glenn returned from his ankle injury in Week 8, David became the odd man out on the roster.
"I don't think it's a matter of making plays, " David said. "I think the plays will come to you if you're just doing the right thing, doing your job and in the right position."
Young, 23, was making excellent progress in training camp and was making a strong push for the nickel back job, but he suffered a hamstring injury in the second preseason game against Houston. The second-year pro from Kent State seemed to get lost in the shuffle after that.
The Saints kept seven cornerbacks on the roster to start the regular season, and Young didn't really work his way back into the mix until veteran Jason Craft was cut, Glenn injured his ankle and rookie Tracy Porter suffered a season-ending wrist injury.
"It did hurt, it did hurt, " Young said of the injury setback. "But now I've got a chance later, later, later on down the line.
"It's crazy. I was talking to some of the guys about that, if you remember when people were actually talking like, 'Why did they keep so many corners?' And now we're down to a very few, and we've had to pick up more (young backups Leigh Torrence and David Pittman, who were signed this week). So nobody thought it was going to turn out the way it has.
"You don't look forward to anyone going down, especially teammates, friends, but since they are, you've got to step up. That's what everyone is looking for you to do. Leaders went down, and you've got to stand up and make some plays."
The Saints drafted Young early in the third round last season because of his impressive display of athleticism in college and in pre-draft workouts. He has great speed and leaping ability, which has turned heads in each of the past two years of training camp.
But he has yet to translate it into his play consistently. Although he has emerged as one of the Saints' top special teams players, he has played sparingly on defense. He has been credited with just four career pass defenses and no interceptions.
Young was particularly disappointed with his performance last Sunday at Atlanta, and Coach Sean Payton said Young struggled. Though he didn't allow any blatant big plays, he said he made mental errors and didn't make any good plays on defense or special teams.
"When you get beat, those mistakes stand out even more, " Young said. "So I was just disappointed. I know that I can play better."
On the surface, Kansas City doesn't appear to have an imposing offense, but second-year quarterback Tyler Thigpen has been on a hot streak, throwing for six touchdown passes with no interceptions in his past three games.
The Chiefs have two dangerous receiving threats, tight end Tony Gonzalez, a mismatch against the Saints' safeties, and physical receiver Dwayne Bowe. Yag, who is the most physical of the Saints' corners, likely will match up often against Bowe, his former LSU teammate.
Although Yag also struggled last week at Atlanta, both Young and David know that Thigpen likely will throw at them often.
"They've been picking, picking, picking (on the entire secondary) throughout the year, so it's not going to stop now, " Young said. "We've got to make something negative happen for them to stop throwing the ball. We've got to make some plays."
 
Really like KC matchup vs the saints safeties---

KC has moved the ball and scored vs Tbay and Sandiego on the road-- Thigpen looks decent and Saints are just pathetic vs any passing team especially one with bigger taller receivers-- Thigpen throws short passes and that is what Saints suck at stopping-- The short passing game should work all day vs the saints.

All I gotta say is get the fuck outta here saints with your bullshit offense and mickey mouse Db's you clowns cannot lay in this league--

they be lucky to even win this game so +5 is a gift for this game--

Saints cannot run the balll very welll also--
 
David is absolute garbage.

But I don't trust the Chiefs either...I like a lot of the dogs in the early games, sans Tampa and Atlanta

I'm going 3 Units on Tampa and Atlanta

2 Units on Oakland +10.5, 2 Units on Houston +8, 1 Unit on Cincy +9 and 1 Unit on Cincy +10.5

Think I'll get involved at halftime in a few games...eying the under in Baltimore, probably a sucker bet though
 
Clayton has been playing well, if anything I'd throw a unit on KC ML or spread and hope they're up a TD or 10 at half...
 
Don't see how you could back the Chargers...only angle I see is Big Ben being terrible lately, and Cromartie being due for a pick (one of his chances has to pay off sometime right?) Jammer also playing well...

Steelers just too good, also need a win...
 
Im saying the Texans +8 is gold jerry.

The Colts had no business, none, beating the Steelers. Please ESPN keep hyping up the Colts. But I will tell you the truth right here and now, this team is as good as done. They might make the playoffs because teams like the Dolphins are even in contention, but I highly doubt it.


Last week

14 points came off 2 turnovers that were in Steelers territory
7 points came off a tipped ball the should have been knocked down
Couldnt run the ball to save their lives
Harrison dropped at least 3 wide open balls
At one point Manning was 5-17

The Colts winning was the most misleading thing this season.

But thats just my .02
 
only question for me sammy, is can KC prevent the big plays that NO lives and dies by?

True I think they can---- They did a good job of taking away Sandiegos big plays---

Saints cannot really run the ball, Deuce is a nice guy but has no speed and is done, last week vs ATL he was a joke no speed---

Saints were held last week because of ABRAHAM- Saints can score, their offense has BREES, Brees is the whole team, Colston and receivers are good also---

However I think True that you cannot lay -5 with a team like the saints in this spot when you have a mickey mouse secondary vs IMO dangerous guys like BOWE and gonzalez and mark bradley--

I dont see how the saints win big or blow them out cause they need a D to do that--
Reggie Bush is out, so that is good-- If they can pressure BREES off the edge they win the game-- I am positive of that--

JOhn ABrahma won the game last week, his rush off the edge made brees uncomfortable, most of saints passes are longer routes, Brees does not throw many 5 yard passes----

I think Chiefs have Tambi Alli and some other players who are quick off the edge--

Perhaps an over is good her TRUEBLUE now that I think about it---

Saints will score, I am certain of that, BUt I am also certain that the Chiefs willl score due to this bad secondary of Saints-- It is so bad that they dont even know where they are supposed to be and now the starters are injured--

Also factor in that Saints have had 1 sack in 3 games, they get no pressure on the QB and have a bad secondary--

this game could be a shootout, as Brees always scores points, he finds ways to score----

I think Chiefs can coer the +5 and may look into the over
 
Don't see how you could back the Chargers...only angle I see is Big Ben being terrible lately, and Cromartie being due for a pick (one of his chances has to pay off sometime right?) Jammer also playing well...

Steelers just too good, also need a win...


Thanks capt.
 
I think what Alex posted about Indy getting the lucky win also helps with a play on the Steelers

I had Colts last week and had no business of winning
 
The Saints lost to Panthers by 23 points and were actualy down 21 to ATLanta in the 2nd half all while ATL did not attempt any passes in the 2nd half, they were running the clock out in the 3rd qtr----

Saints have issues, bigtime issues on D--- KC recent form has impressed me as they played teams much better than Saints in Tbay and Sandiego and gave them all they could handle and realisticallly should be 1--1 or even 2-0 vs those teams--

I like this team with Thigpen, he is smart and throws short high percentage passes-
 
NOtice a key trend with Philly vs weak teams and andy reid--

Andy reid has a good record vs sub 500 teams, Philly has beaten the bad teams good this year, not sure how Cincy hangs in this game here---

Philly looks good in these games
 
Those of you thinking and asking how will KC stop the Chiefs? Well let me just say same way as every other team stopped them--

Look at these stats--
<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1><TD></TD><TD>Tampa Bay</TD><TD>W 24-20</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 2</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 14</TD><TD>at Washington</TD><TD>L 24-29</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 3</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 21</TD><TD>at Denver</TD><TD>L 32-34</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 4</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 28</TD><TD>San Francisco</TD><TD>W 31-17</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 5</TD><TD>Mon, Oct 6</TD><TD>Minnesota</TD><TD>L 27-30</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>ESPN</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 6</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 12</TD><TD>Oakland</TD><TD>W 34-3</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 7</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 19</TD><TD>at Carolina</TD><TD>L 7-30</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 8</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 26</TD><TD>San Diego</TD><TD>W 37-32</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 9</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>bye</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 10</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 9</TD><TD>at Atlanta</TD><TD>L 20-34</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Saints are winless on the road--- They cannot win on the road as they cannot stop any good receivers- in every game this year they have given up 30+ points 29 to washington--

THey cannot stop anyone, so now they are -5----- I think this is a terrible bet on the road with NO D, and the funnies thing is Mike Mckenzie and Aaron GLenn are both out tomorrow---

SO now you have backups in with KEvin Kesvamahr the worst safety in the NFL--

I watched last weeks game and could tell one thing. Players were screaming on the sidelines, Falcons were completing passes that work in colllege, Saints are not even close to making a play, Db's are out of position--- I dont see them getting better as they dont know how to play together and stop anyone--

Simply they make no plays and have no playmakers--
 
Another newsflash Saints are not better than the CHIEFS at this present time---

IN fact let me explain--

A look at KC's schedule and the fact they used 3 differnet QB's now they have Thigpen and watch---

<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1><TD>at New England</TD><TD>L 10-17</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 2</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 14</TD><TD>Oakland</TD><TD>L 8-23</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 3</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 21</TD><TD>at Atlanta</TD><TD>L 14-38</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 4</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 28</TD><TD>Denver</TD><TD>W 33-19</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 5</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 5</TD><TD>at Carolina</TD><TD>L 0-34</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 6</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>bye</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 7</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 19</TD><TD>Tennessee</TD><TD>L 10-34</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 8</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 26</TD><TD>at NY Jets</TD><TD>L 24-28</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 9</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 2</TD><TD>Tampa Bay</TD><TD>L 27-30</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 10</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 9</TD><TD>at San Diego</TD><TD>L 19-20</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1><TD></TD><TD>Tampa Bay</TD><TD>W 24-20</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 2</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 14</TD><TD>at Washington</TD><TD>L 24-29</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 3</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 21</TD><TD>at Denver</TD><TD>L 32-34</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 4</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 28</TD><TD>San Francisco</TD><TD>W 31-17</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 5</TD><TD>Mon, Oct 6</TD><TD>Minnesota</TD><TD>L 27-30</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>ESPN</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 6</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 12</TD><TD>Oakland</TD><TD>W 34-3</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 7</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 19</TD><TD>at Carolina</TD><TD>L 7-30</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 8</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 26</TD><TD>San Diego</TD><TD>W 37-32</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 9</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>bye</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 10</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 9</TD><TD>at Atlanta</TD><TD>L 20-34</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 11</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 16</TD><TD>at Kansas City</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
The Chiefs played way way way better teams---

They played Tennesse, Carolina, Jets, Tbay, Atlanta SanDiego--

Sure they lost to Tenny and Atlanta and Carolina by big margins---

However Saints also lost by 23 to Carolina and 21 to ATlanta with 3 mins left in 4th qtr- and lost 2 other road games--

SO WHat I am getting at here is that there is not much difference between these 2 teams in KC now with the form of these 2 teams-- In fact I believe the Chiefs are the better team now from their play---
they are confident, playing decent on D, attacking, at least they know where to be on Defense--

Brees with all of his weapons and so forth can be contained with pressure, he is not a QB that can improvise, he does not score when they play teams that pressure him stats prove this point--

I really think Chiefs are better at this point and vegas puts a -5 out there because they know its not a -3 and -6.5 or -7 is to much with this team so they throw the old -5 out there which means they are better than -3 but under a td favorite--

THis is loooking like a great spot for KC IMO--
I will challenge Brees to beat me, if he does, he does, but the team saints are not great and are in Dissarray IMO.
 
My thoughts on all the games. Ive had a pretty good NFL season, but I've had maybe the worst week of sports betting I've had since March Madness. Which was pretty bad (-25.00 units).

But here goes (brief)

Denver vs Atl

Atlanta has won by double digits against everyone theyve played at home other then the Bears. Denver cant stop anyone, and they arent that good on the road. I think Turner should have a field day against Denver.

The Play : Atlanta

Houston vs Indy

Houston should cover I think, and maybe even win. Indy is a huge public play. I think a lot of this has to do with how ESPN hyped them and being "back". But as I said, they got lucky against the Steelers. They got really lucky beating Houston, on the road.

The Play: Houston

Oakland vs Miami

Oakland is pretty bad, but Miami cant dominate a game. The only double digit victory they have this year is against the Patriots. I think Oakland keeps it tight

The Play : Oakland

Ravens vs Giants

I really have no idea in this game. It could go either way I think. Baltimore defense is as good if not better then the Steelers. Giants beat the Steelers because of Ben's INT problem. I hate to say this but Flacco (right now) can manage a game then Roethlisburger can. I think that the Ravens might win.

The Play : Ravens

Detroit vs Carolina

Carolina is good, but they played terrible last week against a team that is barely better then the Lions. Who knows i think the Lions cover

The Play : Lions

Philly vs Cinci

First of all I dont think the Eagles are as good as advertised. Cinci has been terrible this season, but they have hung around in games that theyve had no business hanging around in. Kind of a toss up for me, but the Eagles not being that great on the road finishes it off for me. The only team they truly crushed on the road is Seattle. The San Fran game I think they had a bunch of crazy shit happen in the end for them to win in a dominating fashion.

The Play : Cinci

Chicago vs Green Bay

I have no idea. Ill take the Packers at home if a gun was at my head

The Play : Green Bay
[/B]
New Orleans vs KC

Honestly KC could have won the last 3 games theyve lost. The Jets game, Coles made some crazy ass catch. The TB game, they just let them back in. The Chargers game, they went for 2 instead of the XP. Theyve hung around and looked good doing it. NoLA isnt that great on the road either IMO. In fact the whole NFC South sucks on the road if you look at the stats

The Play : KC

Minny vs TB

I think the fact that TB is the most rushing defense in the league will have them win this game. Ferotte looked TERRIBLE against the GB defense last week. He was being booed, while they were winning

The Play: TB

St. Louis vs San Fran

2 shitty teams I guess. The play calling is questionable. San Fran might surge after the blown game last week

The Play: San Fran

Arizona vs Seattle

Hasselback is back but he had a terrible season before he left. A passer rating of 58.8. 2 TD's, 4 INT's. Thats in 4 games. This Seattle team is just plain horrible. I think Seattle is probably a public play too?

The Play: Arizona

Tenn Vs Jax

Personally, I think Jax just wins this game

The Play : Jax

Chargers vs Pitt

Im gonna say Pitt no matter what

The Play : Pitt
 
Where's all the love for Jacksonville coming from? +3 to +1 @Greek.

My leans:
Atlanta -7
Baltimore +7
Tennessee -1
Pittsburgh -5
Dallas -1
 
Where's all the love for Jacksonville coming from? +3 to +1 @Greek.

My leans:
Atlanta -7
Baltimore +7
Tennessee -1
Pittsburgh -5
Dallas -1


Nice card- U have some good running teams in there with some good defenses--- in fact u may have the top 3 nfl defenses in your card, Tenny, Balty, Pitts, ATL is also good, dallas is good also---

I like this card, looks pretty solid
 
<TABLE class=WagerTable cellSpacing=2 width="100%" border=0 cellpading="1"><TBODY><TR><TD width=80>WagerType:</TD><TD>Date:</TD><TD align=left>Team:</TD><TD>BuyPoints / Pitcher:</TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [402] FALCONS (ATL) -6½-105</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52050_1><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for -6-115</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for -5½-125</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for -5-135</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for -4½-145</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [403] RAIDERS (OAK) +10½-115</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52051_0><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for +11-125</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for +11½-135</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for +12-145</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for +12½-155</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [406] GIANTS (NY) -7-110</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52052_1><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for -6½-120</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for -6-130</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for -5½-140</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for -5-150</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [407] TEXANS (HOU) +8-110</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52053_0><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for +8½-120</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for +9-130</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for +9½-140</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for +10-150</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [407] TEXANS (HOU) +260</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [409] TITANS (TEN) -140</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [412] PACKERS (GB) -3½-110</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52055_1><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for -3-130</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for -2½-155</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for -2-165</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for -1½-175</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [414] BENGALS (CIN) +9-110</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52056_1><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for +9½-120</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for +10-130</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for +10½-140</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for +11-150</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [414] BENGALS (CIN) +320</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [419] VIKINGS (MIN) +4-110</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52059_0><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for +4½-120</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for +5-130</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for +5½-140</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for +6-150</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [419] VIKINGS (MIN) +175</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [423] CARDINALS (ARI) -3+105</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52061_0><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for -2½-120</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for -2-130</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for -1½-140</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for -1-150</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [426] STEELERS (PIT) -5-110</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52062_1><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for -4½-120</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for -4-130</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for -3½-140</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for -3-160</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR><TR><TD>Straight</TD><TD width=50>Nov 16</TD><TD align=left>NFL [427] COWBOYS (DAL) -1½-110</TD><TD align=left><SELECT name=BUY_52063_0><OPTION value=0 selected>Buy no points</OPTION><OPTION value=0.5>Buy ½ for -1-120</OPTION><OPTION value=1>Buy 1 for -½-130</OPTION><OPTION value=1.5>Buy 1½ for PK-140</OPTION><OPTION value=2>Buy 2 for +½-150</OPTION></SELECT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


this is what im lookin at.

stuck on nawlins vs chiefs. lean nawlins
 
Thanks Sammy, just concerned with Tennessee. The line movement, while in my favor, is scaring me off. I know Tennessee will not go undefeated. That means they will eventually lose to a team they are favored against, and Jacksonville might be the one.

Denver has no run d to speak of, so the Turner/Norwood combo will be raging all afternoon. Only concern is how Atlanta plays as a two score favorite. Kicker Elam is also questionable.

Hate betting against a hot team, and New York is as hot as they come right now and they're returning home. But Baltimore has been flying under the radar all year it seems like and the offense is gelling. Flacco will go up against a tough crowd. If he gets rattled, watch out.

Pittsburgh laying less than a TD at home to a Chargers team that's not playing up to potential is juicy. Yeah, Pittsburgh has some injuries to be concerned with, but they played hurt last week and still outplayed Indianapolis. At the same time in San Diego, there was no excuse for Kansas City to even hang around in that game. The offense stalled way too many times, and the defense couldn't get off the field. Take away the turnovers and I still don't think San Diego would have had the cover. The team gets flustered easily and now they have to travel cross country to a hostile Heinz Field, to face an angry Pittsburgh team who knows they should have won that game.

The Dallas game is probably my favorite on the card. Washington is still overrated. Portis may be out, Romo is back in, the Cowboys are off a bye, revenge from earlier this year...All angles point to Dallas here. They need to start tonight, believing this is the first game of the season. They'll be a highly motivated team, who just needs to win to get us our cover.
 
1PM:

Bengals +9 ? : Cincy is obviously a bad team but the threat of a running game helps if Benson can continue to move the ball on the ground . Would probably lean 1st Half if I touched this game though . I rather not be in a position where I need Cincy to tie or outscore the opponent in the 2nd H. Eagles have beaten some really bad teams all located mostly in1 division STL , @ SF , @ SEA . Westbrook not 100% still and it shows.

Hotlanta -6 ? Over 51 ? : Suprised how much ATL love is out there which is disheartening. Was hoping for the its to many pts comments or the value angle. I do lean ATL as well but mostly because now DEN lost MLB Nate Webster on top of the ton of other injuries . CHamp is a G/T call but remember this team also lost LB DJ Williams recently and Boss Bailey earlier . We know they have no healthy RBs . The FB should start , Selvin Young is doubtful , Tatum Bell not in good shape and PJ Pope . This is basically RB U though so who knows what can be done as Torrain was solid last week. Denver has some extra rest and the passing game is clicking again with Scheffler back and Royal looking healthy again. Should be tons of points but I wonder does ATL try and slow the game down abit by running the ball?? Would prefer the 1st H over because we have seen how ATL sits on leads. Think NO played them tight last week the simple difference was NO settled for FGs when ATL got TDs but that even turned into NO settling for turnovers while ATL got TDs. To be honest at a full TD my lean is going to be Denver . Not much diffence bewteen DEN and last weeks Saints and look at the spreads ....not even close...Not sure I buy Mike Smith's 521 yds allowed arguement that its about the scoreboard . What would be more fitting then Jason Elam lining up to kick a game winning FG vs his former franchise ?? Problem is that means DEN covers ATS. 521 yds vs NO while a ton came in the 4th Q Saints only had 5 1st H possessions and the initial ended after 1 play when they had an INT. Then a 3 and out when they were backed up at the 9 but then had 3 quality drives but ended in FG , FG amd TOD before half. The 3rd Q was 2 punts but again the inital drive was backed up at the 10 and the next was a 3 and out . After that they had no trouble moving the ball. Down 17-6 with a 45 yd FG possible the Saints went for it and got nothing . Think NO didnt show a threat of a running game and made life a tad easier for ATLs defense . Poor job by Saints establishing the run IMO. Den will try to no matter if its Hillis or Pope.

Under Vikings / TB -4??:
On the surface the game looks like an over seeing MINNYs track record 3 straight overs and 5 of 6 , all 4 away , etc...

This is grass so that should help slow AP down along with the TB defense . Last week Minny had not 1 but 2 safeties and had a pick 6 (issue with Gus )and allowed a punt return for a TD (huge issue for Minny special teams think Blackmon's 2nd versus them and Bush remember that show??.

TB off a BYE , Minny held on to win but chatter about rift bewteen Gus and the team which is never good. Just not sure I trust TB here laying more then a FG . Minny secondary is thin as Madieu will probably not play and they lost nickel back Charles Gordon. Ole Gus has 8 INTS in his last 86 attempts which is negating the improvement of Minnys offense on some levels since the switch.

Giants -7 ?? I did lean at 1st glance to Balt thinking a TD ! Sign me up . Then reality set in and Ravens playing 3 rd straight away after winning the 1st two but 5th AWAY in 6 games . WHile Balt has improved and impressed I cant help get over the fact they were stil +2.5 @ Houston Last week or +3 @ Miami not to long ago. The defense drops a few notches on the road and the game at Houston could have been interesting had Sage not been picked off at the 1 on 1st and goal in the 1st quarter . Looks like a big number but Giants just get the job done time and time again. Balts road wins are @ Mimai , CLe and Houston . Think we see alot of FG attempts here . Had been riding Balt overs but think it stops here especially at 41 or above (worst case 24-17 game) . Think 23-13or 14 game . The weather should be an issue as its been shitty past few days and windy. Balt has Willie Anderson andMason as questionable but are expected to play but doubt they are at 100%. Even if Butler is out at safety Philips has lofty expectations as his replacement.

Lions +14.5 and over 40 ?? : Hard to want to get involved but basically just following the fade the DD fav trend of 2008. Carolina's offense gets a good opponent to bounce back versus . Hostorically CAR has not been a good fav but lets go with 31-20 prediction but could easily be 21-3 .

Raiders +10.5 ? Under 39 ? Oakland lost Walker for the year but get more important McFadden and Jamarcus back instead . Miami's weakness on defense is the pass game and well thats obviously not an OAK strong suit. Despite the 3 rime zone travel and early start still like the pts. Seattle nearly rallied and beat them last week after the sluggish start. OAK defense was great and think as long as the game stays close so does OAK effort ....think Oak could even win SU...Miami 20-14 for now.....

Texans +9 : Kinda sounded like Houston was taking last week easy. Resting Slaton and such but ya think maybe it was because Indy was on deck and they want this one bad??? We all know about the comebackand Sage gets another chance. Just think Indy off three incredibly tough opponents is worn down some and its even showing up on the inury report . @ Tenn , vs NE and @ Pitt thats some Black and Blues IMO !! Houston defense banged up as well especially atLB . So over or pass for me ....Houtson +15 & over 44 /44.5 teaser would work IMO

GB -3.5 buy to -3 : Packers desperate for a WIN now after losing by 3 in OT @ Tenny and by 1 @ Minny . Just looking at CHI season they havent lived up to the defeat @ Indy because the defense especially vs the pass has struggled and been vulnerable. Enter Aaron Rodgers and the Bears swept them in 2007.

Saints and over (1st H ?) : Its just hard to see KC bouncing back again after NOW 3 consecutive heartbreaking , last minute defeats . This is the cheapet line the had and possibly best team they faced . Caught +14 at SD and NYJ where SD lost @ London to these Aints ! Then a very medicore TB road team was like -9 . Granted NO has injuries but neither secondary is decent and NO can really cause chaos with COlston back for the KC youngsters . Saints win 31-24....so lean over as well at least SAINTS TT over if we can get 28 or less !

Not sure at all about the game in Jax . To tough to fade Tenny at leass then a FG but not sure how healthy that defense is . Jags could presen some problems would take +3.5 if I ever could.....

HOUSTON_NYG _UNDER TB_ and probably either Saints or over in that on look to be my strongest 4 early ones .....

Not sure about the rest lean SD , DAL < DAL UNDER.

:cheers:GL ALL









 
great analysis sammy. I would have to agree that it feels impossible to take NO in this spot.. just a matter of accounting for the chief's injured defense and big play ability of brees. In order for NO to win this, it would have to be through a heavy and constant air assault. I can see the heavy, but perhaps not the constant...something to sleep on.
 
Over 70% of public are on Arizona. Highest public play by far.
When public is on a road fav by 70% or more you play the other team, at least that's what I've heard. Zona I don't know how different is San Fran than Seattle?? Now it's at Seattle and Hasselbeck WILL help and boy would they like a win, but hard to trust either teams really.

New Orleans at Kansas City. Haven't we already seen this game this year?? Why are they playing it again. Denver went in to KC and got woodsheded and their hearts taking out like Kevin Kostner ripping out a buffalo's heart as Larry Johnson took the Bronco's manhoood. Why should we see something different. NO and Denver are brothers. I think NO has a better run D though and maybe more focused after that loss, but KC is great in Arrowhead, still best homefield. You have great homefield vs. horrible horrid away team.

If I would ever want to bet on Dallas, this would be the week. Situationally, THIS IS THEIR SEASON. The valley they've been in I think can only help them come out balls out, losses make you tougher and focused. Romo promised in the presser this team would come out differently. Now, has Dallas proved anything to bet them yet though? I think they have. This team opened the season on fire, beating a solid Green Bay team at their place and a solid Philadlephia team. They operated on the Browns like routine surgery. Might be a bipolar team but the talent is their and they have proven it, albeit awhile ago, but it's in them. Talent and situational edge is there. I like that Washington has played them already. IF Cowboys don't win this one you fade them as big as Wade Phillip's ass.

---I'd be weary of Tennessee. Little rivalry with Jax there, Del Rio has been getting power slammed into the dirt by Titans. Del Rio likes to do that to other teams. Del Rio blowing up in meetings fighting Mike Peterson. Del Rio will have his team coming out like a wild pack of Jaguars hunting their prey, a win is their food and they are starving. Saume Berman had a feature of undefeateds, not many make it past the 9-0 mark, this is a pretty good testing point. And Jags have been in it until the final minute last few outings with Titans dspite getting phsycially manhandled.

Leans I'll be deciding from tomorrow thorughout the day.

Minnesota @ TAMPA BAY -4
Chicago @ GREEN BAY -3
DALLAS -1 @ Washington
Cleveland @ BUFFALO -5
Denver @ ATLANTA -6.5
HOUSTON +8 @ Indianapolis
San Diego @ PITTSBURGH -5
OAKLAND +10 @ Miami
New Orleans @ KANSAS CITY +5
Tennessee @ JACKSONVILLE +3
St. Louis @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.5
Baltimore @ NYG -7
Arizona @ SEATTLE +3
Detroit +14 @ CAROLINA -14
Philadelphia @ CINCINNATI +9
 
O-State - Agree whole heartedly with your take on Dallas & Seattle...but NO FRICKIN WAY can I fade a team as consistent as Tennessee is right now (8-0-1 ATS). Until the Titans fail to cover, I will not bet against them. Jacksonville geting WAY too much credit for waxing a god-awful Detroit team last week, IMO. I do think the line is screaming for Tenny money, but I just can't resist...I'll ride this gravy train until it derails.

Also, Chicago's only two losses in their last 8 games against the Pack have come when Chicago already clinched a playoff spot, and most of their starters got a rest.

Just think GB will be a little sluggish after that tough, last minute loss to division rival Minny last Sunday...and as long as Orton lasts most of the game, I feel the 3.5 will be enough.

GL today!

:cheers:
 
Sammy what are your leans/plays for tonight? i want to see where you're putting your money before i do :D
 
Holy shit - we all like the same teams. That cannot be good:

TB
Atl
KC
Hou - funny how Indy is the "public play" yet we are all on Hou???
Dal
Pgh - can't see them losing 3 in a row at Heinz Field
Sea

Thoughts on Ten/Jac - I understand the rivalry angle and the fact that Jac's season is on the line, but Ten survived Indy and Chi - two teams I thought they might stumble against and this Jac team is just not the same as last year. They have many injuries and the team chemistry is not there. I wonder if their dominant performance last week against Daunte Culpepper and the pitiful Lions is helping to keep this line so low?? This might be a case where the reverse line movement keeps people off the correct side. I would play Ten or nothing.

Thoughts on Det/Car - I am well aware of the ATS record of 10+ point favorites this season, but there is no chance in hell I would put my money on a team led by Daunte Culpepper. I would love to know this guy's ATS record over the past couple seasons. Many teams worked this guy out before the start of the season and yet he still could not find a job, and there are some bad QB's in this league. This team was bad before he got there, but they were starting to show signs of life under Orlovsky - not so much last week at home against a struggling Jacksonville team. Remember, Daunte's contract is based heavily on incentives - so I think he will try to force plays that aren't there in an effort to meet his TD threshold, etc. This Carolina team, unlike previous seasons where they were aweful ATS as a favorite and at home, have been dominant at home against bad teams this season.
 
Sammy I wouldn't bet the Chiefs or Saints in this one.The Saints are due to whip some ass and this may be the week. But they have struggled and I sure wouldn't lay 5 or take 5 with either of these teams. Sammy please pass on this game it is pure luck who wins it or covers.Both defenses suck and I don't think KC can outscore New Orleans. Over may be a play.
 
4:05 Edition:

STL @ SF :

Are the Rams the mostly widely inconsistent team ever ? They were never good but competitive or unwatchable is the only 2 types of games they have. Stephen Jackson has been hurt and OL has been terrible . Tough to win like that when you are not good to begin with .

We have two 2-7 teams who might now be heading into different directions after HC changes or SF feeling the momentum that STL had from there switch. How can two 2-7 teams have a -7 spread ? have to think after consecutive debacles STL shows up in a winnable game . Gore dinged p say she is fine but you never know IMO. Morgan OUT who has made some plays for SF offense . Looking for a grind it out game on both sides . Carriker nearing 100% as well for STL defense and Holt and Avery could be tough on SF DBs.

Tough loss on MNF for SF how do they respond ?


Prefer Under 44 -120 (43.5 ) and STL +7.5 .

Cards @ Seattle:

Tough spot for Zona IMO. We dont how in sync the SEA offense will be but the team should have some momentum after the near comeback down in Miami . Kinda of a brutal travel schedule but Zona has some traveling @ STL , host MNF then @ Seattle on short week.

Tough to lay points @ Seattle when Arizona has historically struggled at that place. Would think 1st H ( not sure about 1st Q but liek 2nd Q) for Seattle is going to be a decent play as they have the momentum carry over from Miami coupled with the enthusiam of a healthy of offense . The rust does worry me for the 1st Q though and look for an under ..(still lean +3 with Seattle )

4:15 :

Tenny @ Jax :

Once the fence with a side but suggest Jags 1st Half if you are entertaining playing them. Tenny is so tough in the 2nd H .

Not much to say here as tenny defense is banged up and waiting to see who is out. Jax also shorthanded . Both teams can be thrown on .

Actually like the Over here and 1st H over as well . jags should be amped for this game and the offense needs to show balance ....on both sides ....

Not sure about SD @ Pitt yet if anything .....

GL all:cheers:
 
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