Lakers vs. Rockets NBA Picks and Predictions
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, January 10, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas
Revenge
One common theme in this NBA season is that teams are getting revenge on the teams that knocked them out of the playoffs last year.
Miami, for example, lost to Boston and to Milwaukee after ousting both teams during last year’s bubble playoffs.
Likewise, the Mavs beat the Clippers by nearly 50 points and the Nuggets beat the Clippers by 13 points.
This angle has only been valid for the first time that the two teams play each other.
Houston will play the Lakers for the first time this season. So in terms of finding a strong, situational betting angle, tonight provides a unique opportunity.
Guarding Dennis Schroder
As a scoring guard, L.A.’s Dennis Schroder is the kind of player who would have bothered Houston in the past. As the Lakers' third-leading scorer, his ability to bother Houston would be decisive.
But during the offseason, Houston stockpiled on guards who are known for their strong defense. While Schroder is quick, the Rockets now possess defenders who can stay in front of him.
While Wall is a one-time member of the NBA All-Defensive Second Team, it is hard to quantify Wall’s effectiveness on defense because this effectiveness is effort-based.
In some games, Wall will disappear and leave his man all alone behind the perimeter. In other games, he will get destroyed in isolation.
But this revenge angle is important because it gives us solid reason to expect Wall to turn up his effort on defense.
He has a nice wingspan for a point guard plus quickness and the size and strength to fight through screens.
Based on his career average, Wall is one of the better guards at accruing steals. He’ll take calculated gambles and appear out of nowhere in order to take the ball away from an opponent who he hadn’t been guarding.
While both his on-ball and off-ball defense allow him to play a significant role in the team’s defense, there are other guards beside him.
For example, the Rockets signed another guard in David Nwaba who carries a reputation for strong defense after repeatedly being a defensive leader for whatever team he played on.
Nwaba isn’t much of a scorer. But he’ll add the same strength — he’s 6-5, 219 pounds, and built like a football player — and defensive quality for the 25 or so minutes that he sees the court.
Guarding Anthony Davis
Especially with the likes of Anthony Davis and Montrezl Harrell, the Lakers love to post-up more than just about any other team.
But the Rockets match up well with L.A. in the sense that they are one of the best teams at guarding the post-up. As a team, they allow the fifth-lowest PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
Last year, Harden had to defend the post-up frequently and was one of the best in allowing .68 PPP against the post-up. He still deserves credit for contributing to Houston’s top-level post defense statistic.
Houston’s Offensive Problems
Houston is what it is right now — 3-4 — largely because of its offense. Throughout this season, the Rockets have suffered from a low ranking in offensive efficiency.
This year, the Rockets are trying to develop new offensive concepts.
One change in Houston’s offense is the drastic reduction of isolation plays.
Based on play-type percentage, the Rockets relied more heavily on this type of play.
Superstar James Harden would be one-on-one with a defender. Then he would dribble a bunch of times and find a way to take a shot before the shot clock expired.
Now, under Stephen Silas, Harden is giving up the ball more. Other players are driving more often to the basket. All of this is a problem because Harden's teammates are not living up to his individual, offensive quality.
There is also an acclimation factor in play. Many of the Rockets’ players are used to playing in a higher-tempo offense. John Wall, for example, loved playing in Washington’s up-tempo offense.
But in terms of pace, Houston ranks towards the bottom in the NBA right now. Lack of pace already encourages fewer points to be scored because there will be fewer possessions. Even fewer points will get scored now for Houston with players still adjusting.
Stretch Five
One difference-maker for Houston will be center Christian Wood. Wood is a versatile type of player. As such, he is the type of player who will give the Lakers problems.
L.A. lost its last game to San Antonio largely because the Spurs boast a stretch five in LaMarcus Aldridge who accrued 28 points. Wood, too, is always comfortable attempting threes.
The Verdict
To summarize, Houston is a strong play because of the revenge angle and because of Christian Wood.
The “under” is a strong play because the Rockets have the personnel and the will to stymy the Laker offense like they did in Game 1 of last year’s postseason. The Rockets also are adjusting offensively.
Now, Anthony Davis missed his team’s last game and is listed as ‘questionable’ for this one. I hope he plays because NBA oddsmakers would give us free points for Houston.
But the revenge angle and match-up details are things that NBA Oddsmakers won’t account for. So I can say right now that you should take Houston and the under when sports betting sites release their NBA odds.
Best Bet: Rockets ATS & Under
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, January 10, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas
Revenge
One common theme in this NBA season is that teams are getting revenge on the teams that knocked them out of the playoffs last year.
Miami, for example, lost to Boston and to Milwaukee after ousting both teams during last year’s bubble playoffs.
Likewise, the Mavs beat the Clippers by nearly 50 points and the Nuggets beat the Clippers by 13 points.
This angle has only been valid for the first time that the two teams play each other.
Houston will play the Lakers for the first time this season. So in terms of finding a strong, situational betting angle, tonight provides a unique opportunity.
Guarding Dennis Schroder
As a scoring guard, L.A.’s Dennis Schroder is the kind of player who would have bothered Houston in the past. As the Lakers' third-leading scorer, his ability to bother Houston would be decisive.
But during the offseason, Houston stockpiled on guards who are known for their strong defense. While Schroder is quick, the Rockets now possess defenders who can stay in front of him.
While Wall is a one-time member of the NBA All-Defensive Second Team, it is hard to quantify Wall’s effectiveness on defense because this effectiveness is effort-based.
In some games, Wall will disappear and leave his man all alone behind the perimeter. In other games, he will get destroyed in isolation.
But this revenge angle is important because it gives us solid reason to expect Wall to turn up his effort on defense.
He has a nice wingspan for a point guard plus quickness and the size and strength to fight through screens.
Based on his career average, Wall is one of the better guards at accruing steals. He’ll take calculated gambles and appear out of nowhere in order to take the ball away from an opponent who he hadn’t been guarding.
While both his on-ball and off-ball defense allow him to play a significant role in the team’s defense, there are other guards beside him.
For example, the Rockets signed another guard in David Nwaba who carries a reputation for strong defense after repeatedly being a defensive leader for whatever team he played on.
Nwaba isn’t much of a scorer. But he’ll add the same strength — he’s 6-5, 219 pounds, and built like a football player — and defensive quality for the 25 or so minutes that he sees the court.
Guarding Anthony Davis
Especially with the likes of Anthony Davis and Montrezl Harrell, the Lakers love to post-up more than just about any other team.
But the Rockets match up well with L.A. in the sense that they are one of the best teams at guarding the post-up. As a team, they allow the fifth-lowest PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
Last year, Harden had to defend the post-up frequently and was one of the best in allowing .68 PPP against the post-up. He still deserves credit for contributing to Houston’s top-level post defense statistic.
Houston’s Offensive Problems
Houston is what it is right now — 3-4 — largely because of its offense. Throughout this season, the Rockets have suffered from a low ranking in offensive efficiency.
This year, the Rockets are trying to develop new offensive concepts.
One change in Houston’s offense is the drastic reduction of isolation plays.
Based on play-type percentage, the Rockets relied more heavily on this type of play.
Superstar James Harden would be one-on-one with a defender. Then he would dribble a bunch of times and find a way to take a shot before the shot clock expired.
Now, under Stephen Silas, Harden is giving up the ball more. Other players are driving more often to the basket. All of this is a problem because Harden's teammates are not living up to his individual, offensive quality.
There is also an acclimation factor in play. Many of the Rockets’ players are used to playing in a higher-tempo offense. John Wall, for example, loved playing in Washington’s up-tempo offense.
But in terms of pace, Houston ranks towards the bottom in the NBA right now. Lack of pace already encourages fewer points to be scored because there will be fewer possessions. Even fewer points will get scored now for Houston with players still adjusting.
Stretch Five
One difference-maker for Houston will be center Christian Wood. Wood is a versatile type of player. As such, he is the type of player who will give the Lakers problems.
L.A. lost its last game to San Antonio largely because the Spurs boast a stretch five in LaMarcus Aldridge who accrued 28 points. Wood, too, is always comfortable attempting threes.
The Verdict
To summarize, Houston is a strong play because of the revenge angle and because of Christian Wood.
The “under” is a strong play because the Rockets have the personnel and the will to stymy the Laker offense like they did in Game 1 of last year’s postseason. The Rockets also are adjusting offensively.
Now, Anthony Davis missed his team’s last game and is listed as ‘questionable’ for this one. I hope he plays because NBA oddsmakers would give us free points for Houston.
But the revenge angle and match-up details are things that NBA Oddsmakers won’t account for. So I can say right now that you should take Houston and the under when sports betting sites release their NBA odds.
Best Bet: Rockets ATS & Under
