NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, January 5, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee
Ja Morant’s Absence
Memphis point guard Ja Morant remains injured with a Grade 2 ankle sprain.
His absence is significant for tonight’s over/under for two reasons.
One, he was easily the team’s most productive player and its leading scorer.
He averages 26.3 points per game. Memphis’ next-leading scorer is Dillon Brooks, who averages close to 10 points fewer per game.
The second reason is more subtle but equally important.
Morant loves to run. He excels in transition where he loves scoring or facilitating quick baskets.
His replacement is Tyus Jones. Jones does not possess Morant’s characteristic proclivity to run.
This characteristic distinction between the two point guards is measured in terms of pace: Morant’s is 108.95 while Jones’ is only 100.26.
The difference between 108.95 and 100.26 is tremendous. About 300 players rank between those two numbers. So the difference between Jones and Morant, in terms of pace, is tremendous.
Pace is crucial for a total because it is crucial for deciding the number of offensive possessions in a game. When there are more offensive possessions, there are more scoring opportunities.
When there are more scoring opportunities, then more points are likely to be scored.
So with Tyus Jones replacing Morant, we are going to see a slower overall pace, which means that we should expect less scoring.
It is not surprising, then, to see that the “under” is 2-0 in Memphis’ last two games. NBA Oddsmakers are slow to adjust to the impact of Morant’s absence.
The Lakers Are Bored
The Lakers are unchallenged by these back-to-backs. Perhaps “bored” is the wrong word.
Maybe they are obsessed with “load management” and don’t want to exert unnecessary energy in the earlier stages of a regular season where they can confidently assume that they will qualify for the playoffs.
When the Lakers easily handled the Spurs, they faced them a second consecutive time. They scored 12 points fewer and failed to cover the spread.
In L.A.’s last game, the Lakers started out behind. They stayed even through the second and third quarters before closing the game out in the fourth quarter.
Because the Lakers knew they would win, they only needed to turn it on in the game’s decisive phase.
After turning a close game into a double-digit victory, I cannot imagine that the Lakers lack any more confidence or feel compelled to invest any more effort into tonight’s game.
Like the second game with San Antonio, I expect another ho-hum Laker victory featuring unexciting offense.
Especially without Morant, I don’t see how Memphis can challenge the Laker defense.
The Grizzlies shoot 31.9 percent from deep as a team — a number which is as high as it is partly because of Morant.
But they cannot compete inside against the likes of top-level rim protector Anthony Davis, who was runner up for Defensive Player of the Year last season.
Utah Jazz vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, January 5, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York
The Situation
We know that Brooklyn is highly capable. In its second game of the season, Brooklyn destroyed the Celtics by 28 points.
Now, the Nets have hit a rut. But we’ve reached a classic turning point.
They are coming off an embarrassing, tight loss to Washington. Now we will see a bounce-back effort at home.
Perimeter Defense
Coming into the season, we knew that the Nets should own a strong perimeter defense.
They boast multiple centers who can play strong defense.
We won’t see Kevin Durant tonight since he’s in COVID protocol.
But Jarrett Allen received votes last year for Defensive Player of the Year and fellow center DeAndre Jordan has made the All-Defensive Team twice.
Their interior defense allows other Net defenders to guard their man more closely along the perimeter because they know that they have a rim protector behind them who can clean up any mess that their riskier effort may produce.
Durant is known for being surprisingly mobile given his size. But look at what Allen can do.
Allen has nice lateral foot speed that allows him to stay in front of smaller players.
He’s also able to play high in his ball-screen coverage in contrast to the drop coverage that characterized earlier Net squads and that encourages an uptick in open opposing three-point shot attempts.
The Nets held Boston to 8-for-27 three-point shooting and they can do the same against a Utah team that is living up to its decision before the season to attempt a lot of three-pointers.
Utah is still reliant on the pick-and-roll ball-handler action. But in terms of PPP (points per possession) allowed, the Nets are one of the best teams at guarding it thanks partly to mobile and aggressive ball-screen defenders like Allen.
Kyrie Irving And Who Else
Kyrie Irving is averaging 26.8 points per game right now. He’s always going to produce a lot of points by himself.
He’ll drive to the basket and utilize his unique euro step or his spin move. He’ll recognize what his defender is doing. For example, he may decide in the last second to reject a screen in order to exploit a more propitious path to the basket left open by his defender.
Without Durant, look for Caris LeVert to step up. When Irving and Durant didn’t play against Memphis, he stepped up to accrue 28 points and 11 assists in an efficient outing.
LeVert is a capable shooter who can create his own shot by employing a variety of moves in order to generate sufficient space. Last year, he converted a career-high 36.4-percent from deep.
While he was off from deep in that game against Memphis, he is still effective driving to the basket as his cross-overs and other ball-handling moves allow him to find open space in front of the rim.
Irving will be Irving while LeVert is in a great personal step-up spot. Both regularly contribute assists. They will find sharp-shooter Joe Harris for several threes while Utah’s defense is absorbed by each player’s driving ability.
Parlay Verdict
Parlay the “under” between the Lakers and Grizzlies with the Nets. The Grizzlies lack sufficient scoring power or pace without Morant and the Nets are in a strong bounce-back spot where their capable perimeter defense, their strong ball-screen defense, and the scoring prowess of guys like Irving, LeVert, and Harris will secure them a victory.
Best Bet: Parlay Lakers/Grizzlies Under 218 at -108 & Nets -1.5 at -108 at +271 with Heritage
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, January 5, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee
Ja Morant’s Absence
Memphis point guard Ja Morant remains injured with a Grade 2 ankle sprain.
His absence is significant for tonight’s over/under for two reasons.
One, he was easily the team’s most productive player and its leading scorer.
He averages 26.3 points per game. Memphis’ next-leading scorer is Dillon Brooks, who averages close to 10 points fewer per game.
The second reason is more subtle but equally important.
Morant loves to run. He excels in transition where he loves scoring or facilitating quick baskets.
His replacement is Tyus Jones. Jones does not possess Morant’s characteristic proclivity to run.
This characteristic distinction between the two point guards is measured in terms of pace: Morant’s is 108.95 while Jones’ is only 100.26.
The difference between 108.95 and 100.26 is tremendous. About 300 players rank between those two numbers. So the difference between Jones and Morant, in terms of pace, is tremendous.
Pace is crucial for a total because it is crucial for deciding the number of offensive possessions in a game. When there are more offensive possessions, there are more scoring opportunities.
When there are more scoring opportunities, then more points are likely to be scored.
So with Tyus Jones replacing Morant, we are going to see a slower overall pace, which means that we should expect less scoring.
It is not surprising, then, to see that the “under” is 2-0 in Memphis’ last two games. NBA Oddsmakers are slow to adjust to the impact of Morant’s absence.
The Lakers Are Bored
The Lakers are unchallenged by these back-to-backs. Perhaps “bored” is the wrong word.
Maybe they are obsessed with “load management” and don’t want to exert unnecessary energy in the earlier stages of a regular season where they can confidently assume that they will qualify for the playoffs.
When the Lakers easily handled the Spurs, they faced them a second consecutive time. They scored 12 points fewer and failed to cover the spread.
In L.A.’s last game, the Lakers started out behind. They stayed even through the second and third quarters before closing the game out in the fourth quarter.
Because the Lakers knew they would win, they only needed to turn it on in the game’s decisive phase.
After turning a close game into a double-digit victory, I cannot imagine that the Lakers lack any more confidence or feel compelled to invest any more effort into tonight’s game.
Like the second game with San Antonio, I expect another ho-hum Laker victory featuring unexciting offense.
Especially without Morant, I don’t see how Memphis can challenge the Laker defense.
The Grizzlies shoot 31.9 percent from deep as a team — a number which is as high as it is partly because of Morant.
But they cannot compete inside against the likes of top-level rim protector Anthony Davis, who was runner up for Defensive Player of the Year last season.
Utah Jazz vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, January 5, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York
The Situation
We know that Brooklyn is highly capable. In its second game of the season, Brooklyn destroyed the Celtics by 28 points.
Now, the Nets have hit a rut. But we’ve reached a classic turning point.
They are coming off an embarrassing, tight loss to Washington. Now we will see a bounce-back effort at home.
Perimeter Defense
Coming into the season, we knew that the Nets should own a strong perimeter defense.
They boast multiple centers who can play strong defense.
We won’t see Kevin Durant tonight since he’s in COVID protocol.
But Jarrett Allen received votes last year for Defensive Player of the Year and fellow center DeAndre Jordan has made the All-Defensive Team twice.
Their interior defense allows other Net defenders to guard their man more closely along the perimeter because they know that they have a rim protector behind them who can clean up any mess that their riskier effort may produce.
Durant is known for being surprisingly mobile given his size. But look at what Allen can do.
Allen has nice lateral foot speed that allows him to stay in front of smaller players.
He’s also able to play high in his ball-screen coverage in contrast to the drop coverage that characterized earlier Net squads and that encourages an uptick in open opposing three-point shot attempts.
The Nets held Boston to 8-for-27 three-point shooting and they can do the same against a Utah team that is living up to its decision before the season to attempt a lot of three-pointers.
Utah is still reliant on the pick-and-roll ball-handler action. But in terms of PPP (points per possession) allowed, the Nets are one of the best teams at guarding it thanks partly to mobile and aggressive ball-screen defenders like Allen.
Kyrie Irving And Who Else
Kyrie Irving is averaging 26.8 points per game right now. He’s always going to produce a lot of points by himself.
He’ll drive to the basket and utilize his unique euro step or his spin move. He’ll recognize what his defender is doing. For example, he may decide in the last second to reject a screen in order to exploit a more propitious path to the basket left open by his defender.
Without Durant, look for Caris LeVert to step up. When Irving and Durant didn’t play against Memphis, he stepped up to accrue 28 points and 11 assists in an efficient outing.
LeVert is a capable shooter who can create his own shot by employing a variety of moves in order to generate sufficient space. Last year, he converted a career-high 36.4-percent from deep.
While he was off from deep in that game against Memphis, he is still effective driving to the basket as his cross-overs and other ball-handling moves allow him to find open space in front of the rim.
Irving will be Irving while LeVert is in a great personal step-up spot. Both regularly contribute assists. They will find sharp-shooter Joe Harris for several threes while Utah’s defense is absorbed by each player’s driving ability.
Parlay Verdict
Parlay the “under” between the Lakers and Grizzlies with the Nets. The Grizzlies lack sufficient scoring power or pace without Morant and the Nets are in a strong bounce-back spot where their capable perimeter defense, their strong ball-screen defense, and the scoring prowess of guys like Irving, LeVert, and Harris will secure them a victory.
Best Bet: Parlay Lakers/Grizzlies Under 218 at -108 & Nets -1.5 at -108 at +271 with Heritage
