Hey guys;
since we have a couple top leagues starting this weekend, I figure we might as well take some time to analyze the first round of competition. These are the opening lines at my book, I assume a couple of them will move a bit, but the rest should hold steady.
Real Valladolid (+330) at Espanyol (-180), Draw at +220
We get a repeat matchup of the opening game from last season. Same teams, same venue. While it might seem logical to play Espanyol since they get to start the season at home after a strong preseason, the numbers seem to point the other way.
Espanyol has not managed to scrape a single point in its last three openers, all of them at home, two of them against teams which at the time had just been promoted. Furthermore, they are 0-2-4 in their past six Week 1 matches.
Valladolid has gone 1-1-1 in its last three 1st Division openers, with the loss coming to then-powerhouse Zaragoza, in the midst of a 2-Spanish Cup-in-4-years run, and the draw to Valencia, which would go on to win La Liga.
In this same spot, Valladolid beat Espanyol 0-1 last season. It has historically taken Espanyol two to three weeks to really play up to the heightened level of competition, and with the cloud of the possible Luís García transfer still hovering over the locker room, I don't think Espanyol will be snapping any trends.
Lean: Valladolid at +330
Mallorca (+320) at Valencia (-170), Draw at +210
Valencia is coming off the most pathetic choke job I have ever witnessed in a soccer field, managing to piss away a 1-0 lead in Game 2, 4-2 overall lead in the Spanish Supercup, against a team playing with 9 men. The preseason has not gone as smoothly as expected either, and I don't see the team as having adapted to Unai Emery's schemes just yet.
Mallorca doesn't have a good history in their openers, having dropped 6 of its last 8. However, the team has had a pretty decent preseason and collected quality results against good competition, such as PSV Eindhoven. I think this is a team that has added quality young talent, and some of that talent is geared up to play after having spent the past few weeks in competition mode with the Spanish U-19 and U-21 national teams.
Emery is a great motivator, and I believe he will get his team to rally after such a painful defeat. However, Mestalla will not be a welcoming environment for the home team, not after a summer in which the team was sold to a billionaire who promised to keep its core together and make a couple expensive additions, only to have the current owner back out of the deal in dubious fashion after two weeks.
I don't think Valencia drops this one, but the internal turmoil coupled with Mallorca's recent results lead me to think they don't win it either.
Lean: Draw at +210
Almeria (+230) at Athletic Bilbao (-130), Draw at +210
Athletic has a strong bias towards draws in season openers in recent history, while Almeria doesn't have much of a recent history, having been promoted just last season. Last season's head-to-head matchups both resulted in a draw, and neither team has changed much, so I don't see any reason to stray from the beaten path.
Lean: Draw at +210
Malaga (+550) at Atlético Madrid (-300), Draw at +250
I don't see much value here at all. Atlético has been playing at close to full speed since a couple weeks ago, since it's been involved in the early rounds of the UCL. Malaga got its promotion after being accused of bribing opponents, and although they were cleared of the accusations, the doubts remain. On the field, Malaga has lost three of its five preseason matches against La Liga teams, winning only the preseason opener.
I see Atlético winning, but I'm not sure I'd take the handicap since the defense has been far from stout and the fatigue from the mid-week game against Schalke might make it even worse. I will not be laying 1-to-3 chalk, but I will be taking a long, hard look at the over. Home games for Atlético saw an average of 3.8 goals last season.
Lean: Over 2.5 at -130
Huelva (+340) at Betis (-170), Draw at +210
Very similar to the Bilbao-Almeria matchup. Both games last season wound up with 1-1 results. Betis has only played two of its last 6 openers at home, both resulting in draws. Huelva has managed to gather one point in each of its openers since its promotion two years ago.
Betis' home field tends to be a strong advantage, but the atmosphere will be quite uneasy after the sale of the team this summer, a move many fans opposed.
Lean: Draw at +210
Deportivo (+240) at Real Madrid (-140), Draw at +220
Madrid has had pretty good results in its openers, going 4-0-1 in its last five. Deportivo has had decent results,3-1-1 in its last five openers, although they lost 0-3 to Almeria last year.
Madrid is coming off an emotional win and should be riding a high, while Deportivo has had a subpar preseason that was only made worse by the sale of Coloccini in pretty untimely fashion
Although I have a small lean toward Madrid, I prefer the value in the under. I see a 1-0 type of game, but I wouldn't discard a 0-0 offensive letdown after Sunday's fireworks, which is what keeps me of the 1X2.
Lean: Under 2.5 at -110
Barcelona (-250) at Numancia (+420), Draw at +250
This looks pretty straightforward to me. Barcelona has a pretty poor recent history at 3-0-2 in its openers,Guardiola has blamed last season's soft start for the team's downfall, and the players have seemingly taken up to the challenge by scoring an average of 4.4 goals per game in this preseason, and coming in the clutch against strong teams such as a Boca Juniors squad in midseason form and a Fiorentina squad getting ready for the UCL preview.
Numancia has no recent history in La Liga, and doesn't exactly get an easy start to the season. Numancia's fans will be loud in their team's return to La Liga, but FCB has a pretty strong following in the Soria region, negating most of the home field advantage.
Leans: Over 2.5 goals at -130, FCB -1 at +125
Villareal (-110) at Osasuna (+190), Draw at +210
Villareal has gone 1-2-2 in its last five openers, starting last season in strong fashion beating Valencia 0-3 at Mestalla. Osasuna has a tendency to start strong, going 2-1-2 in since 2003.
El Sadar is a stadium that lends itself to very strong play for the home team, since the fans are almost over the field instead of around it, and they are among the loudest football fans you will find in Europe.
Neither team has been overhauled much, and Villareal didn't have its star player for the preseason, since Riquelme was in Beijing. The home team won both of last season's head-to-head matchups, and I like the value in the home dog.
Lean: Osasuna at +190
Sevilla (+125) at Racing Santander (+135), Draw at +220
This has become a pretty hot rivalry in the wake of multiple high-stakes matchups in La Liga and the Spanish Cup. Last year's results were pretty clear in favor of Sevilla, with a 4-1 result at home and a 3-0 win in Santander.
While Racing has kept its core while only losing Duscher, while Sevilla is no longer the same team without Keita and Alves. I like the home dog to get revenge from a team that not only hasn't improved, but has begun to go downhill in my eyes.
Lean: Racing at +135
Getafe (+130) at Sporting Gijón (+140), Draw at +200
I don't have much of a feel for this game. Getafe has gone 2-2 in its four openers, while Gijón has been out of La Liga for more than a decade.
I guess the value rests in the draw, but I'll lay off of anything until I feel more comfortable with it.
since we have a couple top leagues starting this weekend, I figure we might as well take some time to analyze the first round of competition. These are the opening lines at my book, I assume a couple of them will move a bit, but the rest should hold steady.
Real Valladolid (+330) at Espanyol (-180), Draw at +220
We get a repeat matchup of the opening game from last season. Same teams, same venue. While it might seem logical to play Espanyol since they get to start the season at home after a strong preseason, the numbers seem to point the other way.
Espanyol has not managed to scrape a single point in its last three openers, all of them at home, two of them against teams which at the time had just been promoted. Furthermore, they are 0-2-4 in their past six Week 1 matches.
Valladolid has gone 1-1-1 in its last three 1st Division openers, with the loss coming to then-powerhouse Zaragoza, in the midst of a 2-Spanish Cup-in-4-years run, and the draw to Valencia, which would go on to win La Liga.
In this same spot, Valladolid beat Espanyol 0-1 last season. It has historically taken Espanyol two to three weeks to really play up to the heightened level of competition, and with the cloud of the possible Luís García transfer still hovering over the locker room, I don't think Espanyol will be snapping any trends.
Lean: Valladolid at +330
Mallorca (+320) at Valencia (-170), Draw at +210
Valencia is coming off the most pathetic choke job I have ever witnessed in a soccer field, managing to piss away a 1-0 lead in Game 2, 4-2 overall lead in the Spanish Supercup, against a team playing with 9 men. The preseason has not gone as smoothly as expected either, and I don't see the team as having adapted to Unai Emery's schemes just yet.
Mallorca doesn't have a good history in their openers, having dropped 6 of its last 8. However, the team has had a pretty decent preseason and collected quality results against good competition, such as PSV Eindhoven. I think this is a team that has added quality young talent, and some of that talent is geared up to play after having spent the past few weeks in competition mode with the Spanish U-19 and U-21 national teams.
Emery is a great motivator, and I believe he will get his team to rally after such a painful defeat. However, Mestalla will not be a welcoming environment for the home team, not after a summer in which the team was sold to a billionaire who promised to keep its core together and make a couple expensive additions, only to have the current owner back out of the deal in dubious fashion after two weeks.
I don't think Valencia drops this one, but the internal turmoil coupled with Mallorca's recent results lead me to think they don't win it either.
Lean: Draw at +210
Almeria (+230) at Athletic Bilbao (-130), Draw at +210
Athletic has a strong bias towards draws in season openers in recent history, while Almeria doesn't have much of a recent history, having been promoted just last season. Last season's head-to-head matchups both resulted in a draw, and neither team has changed much, so I don't see any reason to stray from the beaten path.
Lean: Draw at +210
Malaga (+550) at Atlético Madrid (-300), Draw at +250
I don't see much value here at all. Atlético has been playing at close to full speed since a couple weeks ago, since it's been involved in the early rounds of the UCL. Malaga got its promotion after being accused of bribing opponents, and although they were cleared of the accusations, the doubts remain. On the field, Malaga has lost three of its five preseason matches against La Liga teams, winning only the preseason opener.
I see Atlético winning, but I'm not sure I'd take the handicap since the defense has been far from stout and the fatigue from the mid-week game against Schalke might make it even worse. I will not be laying 1-to-3 chalk, but I will be taking a long, hard look at the over. Home games for Atlético saw an average of 3.8 goals last season.
Lean: Over 2.5 at -130
Huelva (+340) at Betis (-170), Draw at +210
Very similar to the Bilbao-Almeria matchup. Both games last season wound up with 1-1 results. Betis has only played two of its last 6 openers at home, both resulting in draws. Huelva has managed to gather one point in each of its openers since its promotion two years ago.
Betis' home field tends to be a strong advantage, but the atmosphere will be quite uneasy after the sale of the team this summer, a move many fans opposed.
Lean: Draw at +210
Deportivo (+240) at Real Madrid (-140), Draw at +220
Madrid has had pretty good results in its openers, going 4-0-1 in its last five. Deportivo has had decent results,3-1-1 in its last five openers, although they lost 0-3 to Almeria last year.
Madrid is coming off an emotional win and should be riding a high, while Deportivo has had a subpar preseason that was only made worse by the sale of Coloccini in pretty untimely fashion
Although I have a small lean toward Madrid, I prefer the value in the under. I see a 1-0 type of game, but I wouldn't discard a 0-0 offensive letdown after Sunday's fireworks, which is what keeps me of the 1X2.
Lean: Under 2.5 at -110
Barcelona (-250) at Numancia (+420), Draw at +250
This looks pretty straightforward to me. Barcelona has a pretty poor recent history at 3-0-2 in its openers,Guardiola has blamed last season's soft start for the team's downfall, and the players have seemingly taken up to the challenge by scoring an average of 4.4 goals per game in this preseason, and coming in the clutch against strong teams such as a Boca Juniors squad in midseason form and a Fiorentina squad getting ready for the UCL preview.
Numancia has no recent history in La Liga, and doesn't exactly get an easy start to the season. Numancia's fans will be loud in their team's return to La Liga, but FCB has a pretty strong following in the Soria region, negating most of the home field advantage.
Leans: Over 2.5 goals at -130, FCB -1 at +125
Villareal (-110) at Osasuna (+190), Draw at +210
Villareal has gone 1-2-2 in its last five openers, starting last season in strong fashion beating Valencia 0-3 at Mestalla. Osasuna has a tendency to start strong, going 2-1-2 in since 2003.
El Sadar is a stadium that lends itself to very strong play for the home team, since the fans are almost over the field instead of around it, and they are among the loudest football fans you will find in Europe.
Neither team has been overhauled much, and Villareal didn't have its star player for the preseason, since Riquelme was in Beijing. The home team won both of last season's head-to-head matchups, and I like the value in the home dog.
Lean: Osasuna at +190
Sevilla (+125) at Racing Santander (+135), Draw at +220
This has become a pretty hot rivalry in the wake of multiple high-stakes matchups in La Liga and the Spanish Cup. Last year's results were pretty clear in favor of Sevilla, with a 4-1 result at home and a 3-0 win in Santander.
While Racing has kept its core while only losing Duscher, while Sevilla is no longer the same team without Keita and Alves. I like the home dog to get revenge from a team that not only hasn't improved, but has begun to go downhill in my eyes.
Lean: Racing at +135
Getafe (+130) at Sporting Gijón (+140), Draw at +200
I don't have much of a feel for this game. Getafe has gone 2-2 in its four openers, while Gijón has been out of La Liga for more than a decade.
I guess the value rests in the draw, but I'll lay off of anything until I feel more comfortable with it.
