KY Oaks Day Discussion

[aplous]

Need an Oaks day thread. Couple of horses I like early in the card:

R3) 1 Smokin T....facing easier today with a better post position. 6/1 ML

R5) Alysheba.....I like the favorite West Will Power 2/1 ML against a short field. Excited to watch Rich Strike try and come from 20 lengths behind as usual.



I'll post P4/P5 thoughts in a bit. Couple single opportunities IMO.

 

[Gandolf]

I'm taking a crack at singling the bug boy on #9 in the 4th at 9/2 ML.

Race 3 pick 5: 1,6,9,10,12 / 9 / 1,4 / 2,5,6,7,8 / 6,9

 

[BringInTheLefty]

here are my four WP bets for Oaks Day





1st:
5-Beach Walkn






3rd:
9-Cowboy Justice






9th:
1-Played Hard





Oaks:
6-Botanical
exacta box:
6/4
6/8
6/10
6/11



Best of luck to y’all today…

 

[Timh]

Our group decided to put a little on the Oaks/Derby combo and we went with 4,6,7/3,5,6,14,15,17 $12 Exacta Key

BOL fellas!

 

[CPA-hole]

I'll be the moron trying to beat Munnys Gold today.

 

[aplous]

I'll be the moron trying to beat Munnys Gold today.

3 Olivia's Twist looks good at a price in that race

 

[Inspekdah]

Good stuff!

 

[Gandolf]

Oaks day and the first two winners trained by women....

 

[Gandolf]

Smokin T sniffed out by the betting public, from ML of 6/1 down to under 2/1

 

[KJ]

God we have too many of these threads

 

[KJ]

Liked 11 there a lot, just not enough steam but got the place bet

Can't do much before the real races

 

[TodaysWinners]

Public's top choice has won the first three races today.

 

[aplous]

Need an Oaks day thread. Couple of horses I like early in the card:

R3) 1 Smokin T....facing easier today with a better post position. 6/1 ML

R5) Alysheba.....I like the favorite West Will Power 2/1 ML against a short field. Excited to watch Rich Strike try and come from 20 lengths behind as usual.



I'll post P4/P5 thoughts in a bit. Couple single opportunities IMO.

Smokin T what a ride John V. Horse was loaded.

 

[KJ]

Smokin T what a ride John V. Horse was loaded.

We needed to partner up. Loved 11

 

[Inspekdah]

Smokin T what a ride John V. Horse was loaded.

Nice call. Backed off when I saw the odds

 

[Inspekdah]

God we have too many of these threads

More the better.

 

[Inspekdah]

God we have too many of these threads

Nevermind I liked this thread for todays betting. It is confusing a bit I suppose. See posts for today under Derby thread.

 

[KJ]

Nevermind I liked this thread for todays betting. It is confusing a bit I suppose. See posts for today under Derby thread.

Yeah that's where I was going

Just need one, not like we're getting 40 people with Oaks Day thoughts but they've been spread out and I know the guys that start their Derby threads want to post in them although I've never understood that really lol. Who cares? Come together like we're around a campfire.

 

[KJ]

Did #4 to win

Sticking w/the Canadian

 

[KJ]

At 9/5 so not great odds but if he wins he wins and IDGAF

 

[Gandolf]

#9 eager, breaks through gate early

 

[KJ]

Got burnt so much early oof. Perfect meltdown race

 

[Gandolf]

Oh man the bug almost got Into the Fire home

 

[KJ]

Now we wait

Some Turkish coffee

 

[aplous]

Oh man the bug almost got Into the Fire home

helluva effort there

 

[aplous]

R5 I like 5 West Will Power but this chalk run is going to get busted at some point.

$1 EX Box 1/4 with Fart Collector

$1 TRI 4/1,2/ALL = $8

 

[KJ]

God this race is loaded

 

[KJ]

And only six horses they all will get a trip

 

[B.A.R.]

Nevermind I liked this thread for todays betting. It is confusing a bit I suppose. See posts for today under Derby thread.

This is the only Oaks thread.

Perfect.

 

[CPA-hole]

3 Olivia's Twist looks good at a price in that race

My thinking exactly.

 

[aplous]

I did not have Smile Happy battling for the lead early and hanging on late. Impressive race there.

 

[KJ]

Something about watching the best of the best even when you lose money

It's just great theatre

 

[aplous]

Agree

 

[Gandolf]

I did not have Smile Happy battling for the lead early and hanging on late. Impressive race there.

Never broke better than 4th in any previous race. Uncappable.

 

[KJ]

Agree

This is the closest weekend we get to Breeder's Cup and every race there is the best athletes in the world

Always have said the best part of thoroughbreds is they don't have a fkn clue about media, they just athlete. Unique deal in sports. This weekend highlights it til BC

 

[KJ]

What these races don't have to worry about is managers and refs

It's pretty cut and dry. Rarely the jocks are the winners but 95% it's the athlete running like an athlete that wins

 

[KJ]

Tony Brothers would be so lost doing this

 

[CPA-hole]

My yearly there's money in the pools, quit showing the morning line odds, NBC, rant.

 

[Gandolf]

Never broke better than 4th in any previous race. Uncappable.

I guess I need to take this back on closer inspection. His early pace rating in his last race was #1 in the field. That last race was a screw tightener as he needed to go 23&2 and 46&1 just to stay within four lengths of the lead, then he was still able to close to within two lengths at the end.

If you look at his past form he's had these screw tighteners before but instead of running right back he get a break. This time they ran him and he was super fit.

I'd bet against him next race though......

 

[aplous]

McPeek interview was good....said the horse is unworkable in the mornings but he does like CD.

Anyone have strong opinion here in the 6th? I think the 8 has some value at 7-1, probably go $2 across.

 

[CPA-hole]

We can add Rich Strike to the long list of Derby winners to have never won another race.

 

[Gandolf]

I have nothing clever for the 6th. Shantisara has closed well last two races into slow paces. Floating above her morning line seems like a little bit of a gift.

 

[CPA-hole]

McCulick off a layoff. Big fan of hers but not sure I want a short price on her today

 

[KJ]

I will not deviate from my small wager on this undercard

i'm very comfortable with betting more than everything combined on War Paint

I do get that people love to fade the favorite for a price, but price don't mean shit when the favorite wins. I like this horse a ton and will putt my money where my mouth is. Entire day will ben on him winning

Why are they still talking about Forte? Hasn't he been scratched by now?

 

[KJ]

Forte is such a fade, I can't believe if he's still running but I thought that was so far off. he's still in? Fade your matcups, I don't think hes has proper instruction to even start the race.

 

[Inspekdah]

I will not deviate from my small wager on this undercard

i'm very comfortable with betting more than everything combined on War Paint

I do get that people love to fade the favorite for a price, but price don't mean shit when the favorite wins. I like this horse a ton and will putt my money where my mouth is. Entire day will ben on him winning

Why are they still talking about Forte? Hasn't he been scratched by now?

Wet paint? Not trolling I don’t know much here and trying to follow.

 

[KJ]

Wet paint? Not trolling I don’t know much here and trying to follow.

Yeah I caught that and was hoping no one else would lol

Not a great typing moment but Wet Paint will be a very large wager to win

 

[aplous]

I will not deviate from my small wager on this undercard

i'm very comfortable with betting more than everything combined on War Paint

I do get that people love to fade the favorite for a price, but price don't mean shit when the favorite wins. I like this horse a ton and will putt my money where my mouth is. Entire day will ben on him winning

Why are they still talking about Forte? Hasn't he been scratched by now?

Agree on Wet Paint.

Pletcher said Forte is fine and will run tomorrow. I don't like him on top but why so much dislike?

 

[KJ]

Agree on Wet Paint.

Pletcher said Forte is fine and will run tomorrow. I don't like him on top but why so much dislike?

I love that horse

I don't think a 20 strong works for him and especially if there is a tweak somewhere. He runs strong but does nothing well. I don't think he's the one to beat for sure.

He's got no moxxy, kinda think he doesn't evel like playing tennis

 

[KJ]

Prolly playes the clarinet very well