Kwik Trip 250 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Kwik Trip 250 Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Kwik Trip 250
Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET (USA) at Road America at Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin

Last Week's Race

The Ally 400 took place last week at the Nashville Superspeedway.

Toyota drivers were dominating this race.

Specifically, Denny Hamlin was having the greatest early success.

His early success was so strong that, by the end of the race, it was he who led the race for the most laps.

Fellow Toyota driver Martin Truex Jr. also had strong success in the first half of the race.

However, after some interference from lightning, the dominance of these Toyota drivers proved to be transitory.

In his Chevrolet, Chase Elliott took over in the second half of the race.

Elliott had dropped to 25thduring a lengthy pit stop on the 120thlap.

But he overcame this setback while the race's top Toyota drivers -- Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Truex Jr. -- did not play the pit stop game as well as they could.

Ultimately, he pushed past Kyle Busch's brother to secure his second race of the season.

His win is perhaps most interesting because he performed terribly in NASCAR's inaugural race in Nashville.

Last year, Elliott finished 39thin Nashville.

Not despite but because of his most recent triumph we should discount him from our list of candidates to win this week's upcoming race.

It is rare and difficult in NASCAR to win back-to-back races.

Race Info

This week, the Kwik Trip 250 takes place at Elkhart Lake in Wisconsin.

Like last week's race at Nashville, this is a relatively new feature of NASCAR's Cup Series circuit.

Sunday's race will be the second one that NASCAR has staged at this course.

For this race, drivers must complete a total of 62 laps.

As has almost always been the case this season, there will be three stages for this race.

Stage 1 consists in the first 15 laps.

Stage 2 likewise requires drivers to complete 15 laps.

Stage 3 consists in the final 32 laps.

Entry List

As usual, the entry list for NASCAR's upcoming race has been posted already.

37 teams/drivers are listed out of 40 possible spots.

All of the usual suspects are on this list.

So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will compete at this event.

Starting Lineup

As for the starting lineup, that gets determined via qualifying.

Qualifying takes place on Saturday, the day before the race, from 11:30-12:30 p.m. ET.

It is going to be two groups, multi-vehicle, and two rounds.

On the same day, a practice session will directly precede qualifying.

Practice is scheduled for 10:30-11:30 a.m. ET.

Track Info

As the race name suggests, Road America takes place on a road course. Its surface is asphalt.

There appear to be so few laps in this race because each lap is rather long.

One lap here consists in 4.048 miles.

There are 14 turns on each lap. Of course, there is no banking.

In finishing 62 laps, drivers will have accumulated about 250 miles.

Drivers I Dislike

One driver worth avoiding confidence in is Denny Hamlin who has been poor in recent road races.

He has failed to finish top-15 in three of his last four road races.

While Martin Truex Jr. has shown a higher ceiling than Hamlin in recent road races, he is showing poor form in general.

I lack confidence in Truex Jr. for Sunday because he is coming off two straight failures to finish top-20.

My Guys

Because of the excellent prices being offered, I think it is worth investing in one more favored driver and in someone who is more of a long shot.

I like Ryan Blaney because he shows strong momentum in recent road races and this season in general.

Regarding the former, he has finished top-nine in four straight road races.

As for the latter, he has earned three straight top-six finishes.

His most recent momentum will combine with his strong recent road-racing to ensure that he finishes at or near the top this week.

Moreover, I like Chris Buescher because he has finished top-three in two of his last three road races.

Best Bet: Ryan Blaney Top 3 Finish at +450 at Bovada & Chris Buescher Top 3 Finish at +850 at Bovada
 
Before qualifying I bet:

1 unit:
McDowell -115 over Keselowski (BAS)

I like McDowell and Buescher, which seems to be the case every week.
 
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Practice and Qualifying Notes:

Fade Toyota drivers. Bell was the fastest Toyota driver in practice (12th) and the top Toyota in qualifying was Kyle Busch (13th). Based on the results of the other 2 road courses this year and practice and qualifying for this race, I would fade the Toyota cars against good matchups, with maybe the exception of Bell.

Kyle Busch is changing his engine so he will be going to the rear.

Both Kaulig cars were slow and both are usually good road course drivers. I will be fading if possible. I would not be surprised if they make some changes to Allmendinger's car as much as he was complaining and if they do, he will go to the rear.

Stenhouse's car is horrible and he finished 25th and 37nd in the previous 2 road course races this year. Fade.

Harvick is usually mid-pack in qualification, finishes, and practice at road courses, but he qualified 28th and was 32nd in practice today, fade.

Chase Elliott, Briscoe, Larson, Cindric, McDowell, Buescher, and Custer all looked good in practice and qualifying and I would bet on them. The odds on Chase Elliott will be too big to bet. Reddick and Bowman also looked good, but I do not trust them.

Briscoe probably had the best car.
 
Gonna try these for the Xfinity race:

1 unit:

Gragson -125 over Allgier (BAS) Bovada also has this.
Reddick -120 over Allgier (BAS)
Austin Hill -120 over Sammy Smith (Bovada)

Allgier is going to the rear and his car was mid-pack in both practice and qualifying.
Hill has finished 2nd and 3rd in both Xfinity road course races this year.
 
I played Hemric -130 over Berry. Berry also to rear snd he's not a real good RC racer.
 
Gonna try these for the Xfinity race:

1 unit:

Gragson -125 over Allgier (BAS) Bovada also has this.
Reddick -120 over Allgier (BAS)
Austin Hill -120 over Sammy Smith (Bovada)

Allgier is going to the rear and his car was mid-pack in both practice and qualifying.
Hill has finished 2nd and 3rd in both Xfinity road course races this year.
Good price on Hill. He's a solid RC racer
 
Gonna try these for the Xfinity race:

1 unit:

Gragson -125 over Allgier (BAS) Bovada also has this.
Reddick -120 over Allgier (BAS)
Austin Hill -120 over Sammy Smith (Bovada)

Allgier is going to the rear and his car was mid-pack in both practice and qualifying.
Hill has finished 2nd and 3rd in both Xfinity road course races this year.
+0.8 units
 
I bet these for the Cup race tomorrow:

1 unit:

Buescher +110 over Kurt Busch (BAS)
Austin Dillon -115 over Justin Haley (BAS)

$20 Chase Briscoe to win +800

I want to bet Todd Gilliand -115 over Stenhouse and maybe Burton -115 over Stenhouse
 
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I played these at Bovada:

1 unit:
Suarez -115 over Allmendinger

0.5 unit:
McDowell Top 10 +100
Buescher Top 10 +115

I should have waited on betting Briscoe to win. He is +1100 at Bookmaker.
 
Added these at Bovada:

1 unit:
Keselowski -115 over Kurt Busch
Suarez -120 over Logano
Chastain -120 over Bowman
 
Added another unit on Buescher -120 over Kurt Busch

Here is what I have:

4 units:
Buescher (+110, -115, -120, -125) over Kurt Busch (BAS)

2 units:
Keselowski -115 over Kurt Busch (Bovada)
Austin Dillon -115 & -105 over Justin Haley (BAS)
Suarez -110 & -115 over Allmendinger (BAS & Bovada)

1 unit:
McDowell -115 over Keselowski (BAS)
Suarez -120 over Logano (Bovada)
Chastain -120 over Bowman (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
McDowell Top 10 +100 (Bovada)
Buescher Top 10 +115 (Bovada)

$20 Briscoe to win +800
 
Still thinking about:

Briscoe (around -130) over Reddick
Gilliand -115 over Stenhouse - I want to fade Stenhouse, but it just seems too crazy to bet on Gilliand
 
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Here is what I have:

4 units:
Buescher (+110, -115, -120, -125) over Kurt Busch (BAS)

2 units:
Keselowski -115 over Kurt Busch (Bovada)
Austin Dillon -115 & -105 over Justin Haley (BAS)
Suarez -110 & -115 over Allmendinger (BAS & Bovada)
Briscoe -120 over Reddick (BM)

1 unit:
McDowell -115 over Keselowski (BAS)
Suarez -120 over Logano (Bovada)
Chastain -120 over Bowman (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
McDowell Top 10 +100 (Bovada)
Buescher Top 10 +115 (Bovada)

$20 Briscoe to win +800
 
Here is what I have:

4 units:
Buescher (+110, -115, -120, -125) over Kurt Busch (BAS)

2 units:
Keselowski -115 over Kurt Busch (Bovada)
Austin Dillon -115 & -105 over Justin Haley (BAS)
Suarez -110 & -115 over Allmendinger (BAS & Bovada)
Briscoe -120 over Reddick (BM)

1 unit:
McDowell -115 over Keselowski (BAS)
Suarez -120 over Logano (Bovada)
Chastain -120 over Bowman (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
McDowell Top 10 +100 (Bovada)
Buescher Top 10 +115 (Bovada)

$20 Briscoe to win +800
Could have been better, +3.0 units
 
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