ksimpsc US Open

[ksimpsc]

Little late here with being out of town but finally got some time this morning to sit down and analyze some stuff. Some good convo with the Ol' KJ as well on his thread.

Unposted plays I have made so far were
Isner -3 winner
Bouchard -4 LOSER
Cibulkova +2.5 LOSER (was a Sloane fade but I will not be pulling that card again unless she goes deeper she does look better post surgery)

8/31 plays:
All plays 1U risked unless otherwise posted
Osaka -4.5 going to roll with the KJ here. Young girl but power is good and match should be on her racket.
3u Ostapenko -
Ostapenko/Cirstea O21.5


Just getting the early games covered, will post more soon

 

[ksimpsc]

8/31

ATP
1.5u Nadal/Daniel U27
Troicki -122
Monfils/Young O35.5
Young +6
.5u Young +280

WTA
Osaka -4.5
3u Ostapenko -201
Ostapenko/Cirstea O21.5
Rogers/Gavrilova O20.5
Kuznetsova -5.5
Keys -6

Like Lopez against Verdasco but Verdasco not playing first match with an opponent retire has me a bit sketched out. That could be a negative or positive thing.

 

[ksimpsc]

We will see how the match plays out but I did not understand the Troicki line. I was looking for injury information as I could but that line just seemed way off. Took on value hoping it wasnt bait.

 

[KJ]

GL buddy, I like Lopez...don't think that first quarter match for Verdasco matters, at least hope not ha

 

[ksimpsc]

Should have gone with it KJ, saw some weird line drop before the match started so I just held offf.

 

[KJ]

Get the rest of it bubs :cheers3:

This is so insanely wide open in both draws I just don't know what to make of it

 

[ksimpsc]

Haha I was making the same point to a buddy today. Hasn't felt this open in a long time in both draws.

 

[ksimpsc]

Getting in the early ones. A little hung over but when you are the +1 with your spouse at conference it is a must to get hammered.

ATP
4u cilic -406
2u cilic -5.5 -125
Carreno-Bust/Mahut U35.5

WTA
Garcia +145

Will post the whole card in a bit.

 

[ksimpsc]

Lost the night match favorites and the big units on Nadal to go -0.8 yesterday. Not a bad step back in, few bounces go a different way and that is +2 but that is fine by me.

 

[ksimpsc]

Zverev/Isner O39.5

going to have to post individually on mobile for a bit

 

[KJ]

GL today bubs, obviously on that over with ya...

Nothing worse than betting unders on Fed and Nadal matches knowing you're screwed about 20 minutes in, that's how I've been this first week.

 

[ksimpsc]

Shap -152 for 2u

 

[ksimpsc]

Sloane off the board for me, whoops missed getting that in.

 

[ksimpsc]

3u Ostapenko -143

 

[KJ]

Atta boy, gonna chase this over as well which could get scary but she's my ride for better or worse. GL today :cheers3:

 

[ksimpsc]

whole card for today

ATP
3u Monfils/Goffin O38
4u Thiem -301
Thiem -5
2u Del Potro -105

WTA
5u Ostepenko -143
2u Ostepenko -2
3u Ostepenko/kasatkina O21.5
2u A Radwanska -130

 

[STEED]

:cheers3:
GL sir

 

[ksimpsc]

Atta boy, gonna chase this over as well which could get scary but she's my ride for better or worse. GL today :cheers3:

KJ i decided to join that over as well on Ostepenko but hopefully she doesn't make us sweat too much

 

[ksimpsc]

:cheers3:
GL sir

Thanks STEED :cheers3:

 

[KJ]

KJ i decided to join that over as well on Ostepenko but hopefully she doesn't make us sweat too much

She'll make us sweat

But juice ain't juice if you win...I literally love and hate Ostapenko about 10 times per match but at the end of the day would buy her dinner and a bottle of wine

 

[KJ]

And yes I know she's underage...that kinda makes it better lol

 

[ksimpsc]

Only thing I locked last night was osteopenko but good to see the del potro line nearly flip.

 

[KJ]

Almost feel like DelPo makes the semis at this point. Shit's crazy.

 

[KJ]

I do not think Fed/Rafa meet up, one of them gettin bounced early and all hell will break loose

 

[KJ]

KJ i decided to join that over as well on Ostepenko but hopefully she doesn't make us sweat too much

I'll keep chasing it. She'll win 6-2 then lose some dumbass 2nd set, that's what she does. Then win the third like 6-1 or something. It's amazing.

 

[ksimpsc]

If anyone gets dunked early I think it will be Fed. 10 sets in two matches. That was his amount through three matches on grass.

 

[KJ]

As much as I think Fed should be favored to win the thing, 10 sets in two rounds at age 36 with a potentially bad back would be silly to bet on even if he wins. That's pretty much the opposite of what you should bet on. Sucks because a big Fed fan but let's be real.

 

[ksimpsc]

3u Shap -145
Shap -2 -115

 

[KJ]

GL on Shap

I almost feel like betting Ostapenko again lol

 

[ksimpsc]

GL on Shap

I almost feel like betting Ostapenko again lol

It feels like the Ostepenko line as well haha. BOL today KJ

 

[ksimpsc]

add

ATP
3u Pouille -130

WTA
10u Sharapova -275
2.5u Sharapova -4

as KJ said its time to put up or shut up.

Sevastova has only been on the court for 6 sets in her 3 matches to Sharapova's 8 but you could also compare their competition so far - Witthoft, Kozlova, Vekic vs Halep, Babos, Kenin. As I stated after the Haelp match if you give Maria some time to get back into true competitive form then I think you will see her really dominate. I think we have reached that point. The match will be on her racket for the rest of the tournament including today.

Pouille I was hesitant to lay but Schwartzman got extremelt lucky he faced a dehydrated Cilic. Cilic did nothing to punish SChwartzman's game at all. Schwartzman has only dropped one set this whole tournament, and that was to Cilic in the first. For the men's I keep betting that someone will step up with all the better players falling and I have lost a decent bit of money so far with that premise.

 

[ksimpsc]

Bad first week and was too busy to keep up ikn the second week for betting but was watching.

2.5u Keys -209

 

[ksimpsc]

Learned that lesson hard this year, especially on women's side. Tennis is hardly worth betting favorites unless it is a tight line, just very little value even if they are the better player.

 

[KJ]

Ranked 957 on 8/1, now Open champ. That's incredible!

 

[ksimpsc]

Ranked 957 on 8/1, now Open champ. That's incredible!

I mean that's not really her rank since she was coming back from injury but yea it's pretty bad. She just won the open not missing shots which is a way to do it in this league and no heavy hitter to punish people.