Knicks vs. Trail Blazers: NBA Picks and Predictions
New York Knicks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Sunday, January 24, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon
Portland’s Injuries
Portland is in the beginning stages of trying to adjust to life without two starters.
Shooting guard CJ McCollum and center Josef Nurkic are both out indefinitely: the former with a foot injury, the latter with a wrist injury.
McCollum’s absence creates a dent in Portland’s offensive impetus because he formed one half of the team’s deadly guard duo with Damian Lillard.
This guard duo is crucial for the Trail Blazer’ scoring output especially given the large drop-off in productivity. McCollum was averaging 26.7 points per game for the Trail Blazers. He and Lillard are the only players on the team who are averaging more than 12.2 points per game.
Nurkic’s importance is more balanced, so his absence will be felt on both ends of the court.
He had established himself in recent years as someone who can contribute between 10 and 20 points per game.
His absence also creates regression in the defense since backup Enes Kanter is not as effective in this department. Based on yearly defensive rating comparison, Nurkic is the defender that Portland would rather have positioned in front of the basket.
Besides individual quality, losing two high-minute guys hurts the Trail Blazers’ depth.
This lack of depth manifested itself in the fourth quarter of Portland’s last game, which came against San Antonio and which was its first game without both McCollum and Nurkic.
Despite ranking in the bottom half in points per game, the Spurs closed with 38 points.
Portland’s Pick-and-Roll Defense
Stylistically, Portland is known for playing drop coverage against a ball-screen.
One downside to drop coverage is that it will concede a jump shot.
This downside is crucial tonight because the Knicks are built to exploit it with their proclivity to locate spot-up shooting opportunities.
While Portland is fifth-worst — as measured by opposing PPP — in defending the spot-up, New York attempts the sixth-highest frequency of spot-up attempts.
Especially tonight, it is a big deal for New York that shooting guard Alec Burks is healthy because, as measured by PPP, he is a player who relishes spot-up opportunities.
Burks is New York’s third-leading scorer. He is still confident in his shot despite the long absence. With two games behind him in which he played his normal amount of minutes, he is fit and without rust.
Having this third important scorer back is decisive because, while Portland is missing some of their top sources of offense, the Knicks are able to threaten offensively even with guys beyond the central duo of Julius Randle and RJ Barrett.
Randle and Barrett
Randle fits well in New York’s offense because he’s complementing his characteristic individual productivity as a scorer with creativity.
In his career, Randle is accruing 2.9 assists per game. But this year, he averages 6.2 assists per game.
He is getting other players more involved in the offense. For example, he loves passing to Barrett.
Before Randle ignited his uptick in assists, Barrett often stood around while Randle performed the labor of attracting multiple defenders.
But now he can find Barrett in order to set him up in front of the basket. If Barrett or someone else is open while attempting to cut towards the basket, Randle can help create that space in the first place by pulling his counterpart at power forward away from the basket. Then, Randle will find his man.
Randle attracts multiple defenders given his post-up ability and his multi-dimensionality. He, too, will establish himself as a dangerous spot-up shooter like when he sets a screen and faces the type of coverage that Portland will show tonight. Randle is even a decently efficient three-point shooter.
Barrett, like another efficient pick-and-roll guy Immanuel Quickley, is notorious for his driving ability. Both help explain why New York is so active — as measured by its shot profile — in front of the basket where the Trail Blazers will position their depleted front court.
Portland Offense vs. New York Defense
The Trail Blazers love to run the pick-and-roll for a ball-handler.
But based on opposing PPP, the Knicks have one of the NBA’s strongest ball-screen defenses.
They are well-tested in this respect. They have faced most of the few teams that rank ahead of Portland in terms of wanting to run this play type.
Against such ball-screen-heavy teams, the Knicks are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS with three upset wins. They won as two-point underdogs vs. Orlando, as eight-point underdogs against Utah, and as seven-point underdogs at Atlanta.
The Verdict
Portland’s defense already carried a negative reputation. But now it also lacks depth.
Offensively, New York’s offense will be propelled as usual by leading scorers Barrett and Randle, but can also rely on Burks.
The Knicks’ expanse of weapons on offense plus their solid ball-screen defense will help them outscore the injury-afflicted Trail Blazers.
Best Bet: Knicks +3.5 at -108 with Heriage
New York Knicks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Sunday, January 24, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon
Portland’s Injuries
Portland is in the beginning stages of trying to adjust to life without two starters.
Shooting guard CJ McCollum and center Josef Nurkic are both out indefinitely: the former with a foot injury, the latter with a wrist injury.
McCollum’s absence creates a dent in Portland’s offensive impetus because he formed one half of the team’s deadly guard duo with Damian Lillard.
This guard duo is crucial for the Trail Blazer’ scoring output especially given the large drop-off in productivity. McCollum was averaging 26.7 points per game for the Trail Blazers. He and Lillard are the only players on the team who are averaging more than 12.2 points per game.
Nurkic’s importance is more balanced, so his absence will be felt on both ends of the court.
He had established himself in recent years as someone who can contribute between 10 and 20 points per game.
His absence also creates regression in the defense since backup Enes Kanter is not as effective in this department. Based on yearly defensive rating comparison, Nurkic is the defender that Portland would rather have positioned in front of the basket.
Besides individual quality, losing two high-minute guys hurts the Trail Blazers’ depth.
This lack of depth manifested itself in the fourth quarter of Portland’s last game, which came against San Antonio and which was its first game without both McCollum and Nurkic.
Despite ranking in the bottom half in points per game, the Spurs closed with 38 points.
Portland’s Pick-and-Roll Defense
Stylistically, Portland is known for playing drop coverage against a ball-screen.
One downside to drop coverage is that it will concede a jump shot.
This downside is crucial tonight because the Knicks are built to exploit it with their proclivity to locate spot-up shooting opportunities.
While Portland is fifth-worst — as measured by opposing PPP — in defending the spot-up, New York attempts the sixth-highest frequency of spot-up attempts.
Especially tonight, it is a big deal for New York that shooting guard Alec Burks is healthy because, as measured by PPP, he is a player who relishes spot-up opportunities.
Burks is New York’s third-leading scorer. He is still confident in his shot despite the long absence. With two games behind him in which he played his normal amount of minutes, he is fit and without rust.
Having this third important scorer back is decisive because, while Portland is missing some of their top sources of offense, the Knicks are able to threaten offensively even with guys beyond the central duo of Julius Randle and RJ Barrett.
Randle and Barrett
Randle fits well in New York’s offense because he’s complementing his characteristic individual productivity as a scorer with creativity.
In his career, Randle is accruing 2.9 assists per game. But this year, he averages 6.2 assists per game.
He is getting other players more involved in the offense. For example, he loves passing to Barrett.
Before Randle ignited his uptick in assists, Barrett often stood around while Randle performed the labor of attracting multiple defenders.
But now he can find Barrett in order to set him up in front of the basket. If Barrett or someone else is open while attempting to cut towards the basket, Randle can help create that space in the first place by pulling his counterpart at power forward away from the basket. Then, Randle will find his man.
Randle attracts multiple defenders given his post-up ability and his multi-dimensionality. He, too, will establish himself as a dangerous spot-up shooter like when he sets a screen and faces the type of coverage that Portland will show tonight. Randle is even a decently efficient three-point shooter.
Barrett, like another efficient pick-and-roll guy Immanuel Quickley, is notorious for his driving ability. Both help explain why New York is so active — as measured by its shot profile — in front of the basket where the Trail Blazers will position their depleted front court.
Portland Offense vs. New York Defense
The Trail Blazers love to run the pick-and-roll for a ball-handler.
But based on opposing PPP, the Knicks have one of the NBA’s strongest ball-screen defenses.
They are well-tested in this respect. They have faced most of the few teams that rank ahead of Portland in terms of wanting to run this play type.
Against such ball-screen-heavy teams, the Knicks are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS with three upset wins. They won as two-point underdogs vs. Orlando, as eight-point underdogs against Utah, and as seven-point underdogs at Atlanta.
The Verdict
Portland’s defense already carried a negative reputation. But now it also lacks depth.
Offensively, New York’s offense will be propelled as usual by leading scorers Barrett and Randle, but can also rely on Burks.
The Knicks’ expanse of weapons on offense plus their solid ball-screen defense will help them outscore the injury-afflicted Trail Blazers.
Best Bet: Knicks +3.5 at -108 with Heriage
