NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 25: The Knicks Are Road Warriors
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, May 25, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Indiana Is Coming In Too High
Every Indiana series has shown the same development.
In the first round, the Pacers won Games 1 and 2 most convincingly against the Bucks before losing Game 3 in Milwaukee by 16 points.
Subsequently, the Pacers won Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland somewhat less convincingly than against Milwaukee before the Cavaliers won Game 3 in Indiana by 22 points.
The Pacers are thus 0-2 in Game 3s, which they lose by an average of 19 points and which they lose regardless of whether they are playing at home or on the road.
While Indiana is flying high now with a two-game lead and consequently appears to many bettors to be the superior team in this matchup, most recent history shows that the Pacers do not know how to handle being so high.
Playing well with such a solid series lead is easier said than done. Doing so requires players to forget that they are up two games, which they are obviously unable to do. Hence, the Knicks, for example, are 0-6 in last year's and this year's postseason with a multiple-game series lead. The Thunder, who blew out Minnesota in Games 1 and 2, just lost Game 3 by over 40 points.
Generally speaking, one should look to fade a team with a multiple-game series lead.
This is especially true with the Pacers and Knicks matched up against each other. Despite Indiana's two-game series lead, a consequence of a New York collapse in Game 1, these are two evenly matched teams, with the Knicks having the advantage at point guard and the wings and bigs pretty evenly matched. Hence, people were right before this series began to expect it to go at least to a Game 6, and it would be wrong to give up this expectation.
It is well-known that it is impossible to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, so we are going to get New York's best effort tonight. The Pacers, coming in high, will not handle a desperate Knicks team, whose psychological edge today will make the most of its matchup potential.
Knicks on the Road
It is tempting to give up on the Knicks because they lost Games 1 and 2 at home, but this temptation ignores the fact that they are more comfortable on the road.
This comfort creates unique betting value on the Knicks because oddsmakers with their spread for this game fail to account for it, in addition to failing to account for their desperation.
In this postseason, the Knicks are 5-1 on the road. Their one loss came when they led Boston by two games in their series and when they, like the Thunder did against Denver and like so many teams do, essentially took a road game off in order to clinch their series at home.
Situationally speaking, New York is a must-bet today.
Key Lineup Change
Insiders have expressed the possibility that New York today will insert center Mitchell Robinson into the starting lineup in place of Josh Hart.
New York's head coach had adjusted the minutes of different players throughout the postseason, so he is someone who is psychologically capable of making needed adjustments. If Robinson doesn't start today, he'll surely play a bigger role.
One might be concerned that Robinson isn't much of a scorer, but this concern is erroneous because Hart isn't one, either — at least not in this series, where he is averaging less than half as many points as he averaged in the last round: Hart is averaging seven points per game thus far.
What Robinson does add is quality rim protection. With Karl-Anthony Towns less able to provide this, New York needs Robinson on the floor in order to shore up its interior defense and to protect the paint. In this series, Indiana has been able to attack the paint and to use the threat that it poses near the basket to enhance its shooting opportunities behind the arc.
Robinson's presence thus limits Indiana's potential both inside the arc and outside the arc, where his rim protection enables New York's lengthy and defensively solid All-Defensive Team selections at its wing positions to guard the perimeter more closely.
Robinson's importance is more than just a theory that one writes about. With him on the floor, New York is outscoring Indiana so far by six points. In this year's playoffs, New York is outscoring opponents by 26 points when he plays alongside Towns.
More Deuce McBride
Indiana won Game 2 by using a 65-point second-half to outscore the Knicks.
In that second half, Deuce McBride played all of eight minutes.
This decision to play McBride so little is incomprehensible given his success, well-known before this series began, at limiting Haliburton's efficiency.
Indiana's pace and its ability to move the ball and otherwise attack in the half-court hinge on Haliburton's ability to enhance the flow of his team's offense. McBride is a huge piece that New York has to inhibit Haliburton's playmaking potential.
The Knicks' head coach has already played McBride as many as 32 minutes in this postseason, so expecting him to play him more tonight is not exactly crazy. After the Knicks gave up so many second-half points, one has to expect him to use McBride more to shore up his team's defense.
New York's Ball-Screen Defense
When the Knicks impressed the world by being so sharp in Games 1 and 2 in Boston and limiting the Celtics to 100 points or fewer in regulation, their ball-screen defense was a major talking point.
Their ability to switch, to communicate, to be sufficiently aggressive is thus not a mere hope but something that they've recently demonstrated.
Their situationally dictated enhanced sharpness today will encompass their ball-screen defense living up to its potential against an offense that is anyhow in a major down spot after appearing so sharp in Games 1 and 2, having failed to exceed 104 points in a Game 3 thus far, despite their two previous Game 3s being blowouts.
New York's Superb Offense
With New York's defense holding Indiana to below 105 points, the Knicks will have no problem scoring enough points to win.
They scored 125 points in regulation in Game 1 and, in a lower-scoring more half-court-type of affair, 109 points in Game 2. Indiana lacks the personnel to match up more effectively against New York's offense.
The best of Indiana's wing defenders are focused on New York's superstar Jalen Brunson, who has bested the Pacers' best perimeter defender Aaron Nesmith and scored 43 points in Game 1 before amassing 36 points in Game 2.
As he was in the regular season, Karl-Anthony Towns has proven unstoppable for Myles Turner and the rest of Indiana's frontcourt. Towns is averaging 27.5 points in this series.
With the rest of Indiana's defense focused on Brunson, who is able to get his teammates involved, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have easy tasks against a Pacers defense that, with Nesmith who is essentially useless on defense in this series, ranked 14th in the regular season and is obviously much worse when Nesmith, who can't handle Brunson, is discounted.
Takeaway
In this matchup between even teams, the Knicks will appear to be the clearly superior team in what will be another Game 3 catastrophe for Indiana today. They have extra value as a road team because they are proven road warriors.
Their offense will continue to thrive against a subpar Pacers defense that is especially porous with its best defenders negated by New York's best weapons. The Knicks have a well-rounded attack with Bridges and Anunoby doing the most to complement Brunson and Towns.
The Knicks also have the point-of-attack defender in McBride and All-Defensive Team selections in Bridges and Anunoby to guard the perimeter, limit the playmaking potential of Indiana's centerpiece, and to do these things aggressively with Robinson's uptick in minutes facilitating the enhancement of their rim protection and the stabilization of their interior defense, the latter two defensive features receiving strength and continuity from sharper and more focused ball-screen defense that echoes what the Knicks have exhibited in most recent playoff road games.
Best Bet: Knicks ML at +113 with BetOnline & Pacers under 112.5 points at +100 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, May 25, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Indiana Is Coming In Too High
Every Indiana series has shown the same development.
In the first round, the Pacers won Games 1 and 2 most convincingly against the Bucks before losing Game 3 in Milwaukee by 16 points.
Subsequently, the Pacers won Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland somewhat less convincingly than against Milwaukee before the Cavaliers won Game 3 in Indiana by 22 points.
The Pacers are thus 0-2 in Game 3s, which they lose by an average of 19 points and which they lose regardless of whether they are playing at home or on the road.
While Indiana is flying high now with a two-game lead and consequently appears to many bettors to be the superior team in this matchup, most recent history shows that the Pacers do not know how to handle being so high.
Playing well with such a solid series lead is easier said than done. Doing so requires players to forget that they are up two games, which they are obviously unable to do. Hence, the Knicks, for example, are 0-6 in last year's and this year's postseason with a multiple-game series lead. The Thunder, who blew out Minnesota in Games 1 and 2, just lost Game 3 by over 40 points.
Generally speaking, one should look to fade a team with a multiple-game series lead.
This is especially true with the Pacers and Knicks matched up against each other. Despite Indiana's two-game series lead, a consequence of a New York collapse in Game 1, these are two evenly matched teams, with the Knicks having the advantage at point guard and the wings and bigs pretty evenly matched. Hence, people were right before this series began to expect it to go at least to a Game 6, and it would be wrong to give up this expectation.
It is well-known that it is impossible to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, so we are going to get New York's best effort tonight. The Pacers, coming in high, will not handle a desperate Knicks team, whose psychological edge today will make the most of its matchup potential.
Knicks on the Road
It is tempting to give up on the Knicks because they lost Games 1 and 2 at home, but this temptation ignores the fact that they are more comfortable on the road.
This comfort creates unique betting value on the Knicks because oddsmakers with their spread for this game fail to account for it, in addition to failing to account for their desperation.
In this postseason, the Knicks are 5-1 on the road. Their one loss came when they led Boston by two games in their series and when they, like the Thunder did against Denver and like so many teams do, essentially took a road game off in order to clinch their series at home.
Situationally speaking, New York is a must-bet today.
Key Lineup Change
Insiders have expressed the possibility that New York today will insert center Mitchell Robinson into the starting lineup in place of Josh Hart.
New York's head coach had adjusted the minutes of different players throughout the postseason, so he is someone who is psychologically capable of making needed adjustments. If Robinson doesn't start today, he'll surely play a bigger role.
One might be concerned that Robinson isn't much of a scorer, but this concern is erroneous because Hart isn't one, either — at least not in this series, where he is averaging less than half as many points as he averaged in the last round: Hart is averaging seven points per game thus far.
What Robinson does add is quality rim protection. With Karl-Anthony Towns less able to provide this, New York needs Robinson on the floor in order to shore up its interior defense and to protect the paint. In this series, Indiana has been able to attack the paint and to use the threat that it poses near the basket to enhance its shooting opportunities behind the arc.
Robinson's presence thus limits Indiana's potential both inside the arc and outside the arc, where his rim protection enables New York's lengthy and defensively solid All-Defensive Team selections at its wing positions to guard the perimeter more closely.
Robinson's importance is more than just a theory that one writes about. With him on the floor, New York is outscoring Indiana so far by six points. In this year's playoffs, New York is outscoring opponents by 26 points when he plays alongside Towns.
More Deuce McBride
Indiana won Game 2 by using a 65-point second-half to outscore the Knicks.
In that second half, Deuce McBride played all of eight minutes.
This decision to play McBride so little is incomprehensible given his success, well-known before this series began, at limiting Haliburton's efficiency.
Indiana's pace and its ability to move the ball and otherwise attack in the half-court hinge on Haliburton's ability to enhance the flow of his team's offense. McBride is a huge piece that New York has to inhibit Haliburton's playmaking potential.
The Knicks' head coach has already played McBride as many as 32 minutes in this postseason, so expecting him to play him more tonight is not exactly crazy. After the Knicks gave up so many second-half points, one has to expect him to use McBride more to shore up his team's defense.
New York's Ball-Screen Defense
When the Knicks impressed the world by being so sharp in Games 1 and 2 in Boston and limiting the Celtics to 100 points or fewer in regulation, their ball-screen defense was a major talking point.
Their ability to switch, to communicate, to be sufficiently aggressive is thus not a mere hope but something that they've recently demonstrated.
Their situationally dictated enhanced sharpness today will encompass their ball-screen defense living up to its potential against an offense that is anyhow in a major down spot after appearing so sharp in Games 1 and 2, having failed to exceed 104 points in a Game 3 thus far, despite their two previous Game 3s being blowouts.
New York's Superb Offense
With New York's defense holding Indiana to below 105 points, the Knicks will have no problem scoring enough points to win.
They scored 125 points in regulation in Game 1 and, in a lower-scoring more half-court-type of affair, 109 points in Game 2. Indiana lacks the personnel to match up more effectively against New York's offense.
The best of Indiana's wing defenders are focused on New York's superstar Jalen Brunson, who has bested the Pacers' best perimeter defender Aaron Nesmith and scored 43 points in Game 1 before amassing 36 points in Game 2.
As he was in the regular season, Karl-Anthony Towns has proven unstoppable for Myles Turner and the rest of Indiana's frontcourt. Towns is averaging 27.5 points in this series.
With the rest of Indiana's defense focused on Brunson, who is able to get his teammates involved, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have easy tasks against a Pacers defense that, with Nesmith who is essentially useless on defense in this series, ranked 14th in the regular season and is obviously much worse when Nesmith, who can't handle Brunson, is discounted.
Takeaway
In this matchup between even teams, the Knicks will appear to be the clearly superior team in what will be another Game 3 catastrophe for Indiana today. They have extra value as a road team because they are proven road warriors.
Their offense will continue to thrive against a subpar Pacers defense that is especially porous with its best defenders negated by New York's best weapons. The Knicks have a well-rounded attack with Bridges and Anunoby doing the most to complement Brunson and Towns.
The Knicks also have the point-of-attack defender in McBride and All-Defensive Team selections in Bridges and Anunoby to guard the perimeter, limit the playmaking potential of Indiana's centerpiece, and to do these things aggressively with Robinson's uptick in minutes facilitating the enhancement of their rim protection and the stabilization of their interior defense, the latter two defensive features receiving strength and continuity from sharper and more focused ball-screen defense that echoes what the Knicks have exhibited in most recent playoff road games.
Best Bet: Knicks ML at +113 with BetOnline & Pacers under 112.5 points at +100 with BetOnline
