NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings
Friday, January 22, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Sacramento’s Trends
In Sacramento’s last ten games, the Kings have gone 1-9 ATS largely because of how poor their defense is.
Their poor defense also explains why the “over” is hitting at a 70 percent rate during this span.
They allowed over 120 points in eight of these 10 games.
Sacramento’s Defense
One reason why Sacramento’s defense is so poor is its inability to stop opponents from getting to and finishing at the rim.
On shots attempted less than five feet from the basket, the Kings allow the third-highest field goal attempts per game and the fifth-highest field goal percentage.
Their guards are struggling to keep their respective counterparts in front of them. Buddy Hield is one culprit.
Hield has an extremely poor defensive rating. It’s important to note that he plays the second-highest amount of minutes on the team: Sacramento needs his offense, even though his defense is awful.
Power forward Marvin Bagley has an even worse defensive rating than Hield while he likewise plays a lot of minutes,
Bagley is uncomfortable defending away from the basket. He doesn’t close out well against opposing shooters. He also exhibits poor footwork and deters little at the rim.
For these reasons, Sacramento’s opponent will regularly look to get the ball to the guy being guarded by Bagley, although Hield, too, is someone to target because he is vulnerable to blow-bys.
Value In New York’s Offense?
Those who are skeptical of my reasoning so far may try to counter: "but New York’s offense is so poor. Look, for example, at how many points per game the Knicks score.”
New York’s scoring offense drives down the total in each game. Despite the 7-3 “over” run in most recent King games, tonight’s over/under is 7.5 points lower than any other King game during this span.
But if we consider the Knicks’ shot profile, then we discover significant value in backing the Knick offense tonight.
The Knicks love to attempt the kind of shots that Sacramento struggles so mightily to defend. They attempt the fifth-highest rate of field goals within five feet of the basket.
So they will find more success against the King defense than they do against other defenses.
On defense, Sacramento is immune to match-up advantages.
For example, the Kings faced a Raptor offense that ranks close to last, 27th, in points in the paint per game, which is 15 spots lower than New York.
In Sacramento, Toronto produced 62 points in the paint en route to a 144-point output.
New York’s Weapons
Multiple Knick players are in a great spot tonight. One guy to look for is former early first-round draft selection RJ Barrett. Barrett was never known for his shooting ability. But he was touted for his driving ability.
Barrett loves to receive dribble-handoffs. The dribble-handoff gives him a spatial edge against his defender and it also gives him momentum going downhill in the paint.
When inside the paint, he’ll flash a variety of moves like a step-back, dribble hesitation, and euro step in order to procure a favorable opportunity at the rim.
He’ll also behave as if he’s going to pass the ball to a nearby teammate in the post in order to cause his defender to overthink.
With his driving ability. Barrett has been consistently solid lately. He’s scored a combined total of 109 points in his past five games, scoring between 19 and 28 in each of them.
His match-up tonight looks especially favorable since his counterpart is Hield.
Power forward Julius Randle, New York’s leading scorer, enjoys a strong match-up being guarded by King bigs like Bagley, who will provide a much easier test than the high-caliber power forwards that Randle has successfully navigated this season.
Randle will back a defender in the paint. But he also isn’t afraid to pull up or step back for a jump shot.
Edge In The Paint
New York is enjoying a three-game win streak largely because of the edge that it enjoys in the paint.
During this streak, the Knicks have outscored teams 140-102 in the paint.
They allow the seventh-lowest field goal percentage against shots attempted within five feet of the basket.
This last statistic is important because, like the Knicks, the Kings rely heavily for their offense on driving to the basket.
As measured by defensive rating, Barrett and Randle are two examples of Knick players who have significant advantages on defense over their Sacramento counterparts.
So Barrett and Randle will thrive at the basket on offense, while offering greater resistance on defense.
Points Off Turnovers
One common theme lately has been the Knicks’ vulnerability to turnovers.
The likelihood that they give the ball away — they rank 19th in turnovers per offensive play — will feed a Sacramento transition attack that doesn’t even rely on turnovers to ignite itself.
As supported by stats like frequency of field goal attempts in transition and PPP (points per play) in transition, Sacramento is built to thrive in transition with speedsters like De’Aaron Fox who will aptly race down the court given the opportunity.
The Kings’ ability to run via its transition game will help them quicken the pace of tonight’s contest in order to create more shot attempts.
The Verdict
New York has great value as an underdog given its edge in front of the rim, given Sacramento’s recent trends, and given the Knicks’ recent play.
The Kings will contribute to the point total especially with their rim-attacking prowess in transition, which will help them continue to be one of the NBA’s more up-tempo teams. More field goal attempts will help the game’s overall point total.
Best Bet: Parlay Knicks +4 at -110 & Over 218 at -115 at +257 odds with Bookmaker
New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings
Friday, January 22, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Sacramento’s Trends
In Sacramento’s last ten games, the Kings have gone 1-9 ATS largely because of how poor their defense is.
Their poor defense also explains why the “over” is hitting at a 70 percent rate during this span.
They allowed over 120 points in eight of these 10 games.
Sacramento’s Defense
One reason why Sacramento’s defense is so poor is its inability to stop opponents from getting to and finishing at the rim.
On shots attempted less than five feet from the basket, the Kings allow the third-highest field goal attempts per game and the fifth-highest field goal percentage.
Their guards are struggling to keep their respective counterparts in front of them. Buddy Hield is one culprit.
Hield has an extremely poor defensive rating. It’s important to note that he plays the second-highest amount of minutes on the team: Sacramento needs his offense, even though his defense is awful.
Power forward Marvin Bagley has an even worse defensive rating than Hield while he likewise plays a lot of minutes,
Bagley is uncomfortable defending away from the basket. He doesn’t close out well against opposing shooters. He also exhibits poor footwork and deters little at the rim.
For these reasons, Sacramento’s opponent will regularly look to get the ball to the guy being guarded by Bagley, although Hield, too, is someone to target because he is vulnerable to blow-bys.
Value In New York’s Offense?
Those who are skeptical of my reasoning so far may try to counter: "but New York’s offense is so poor. Look, for example, at how many points per game the Knicks score.”
New York’s scoring offense drives down the total in each game. Despite the 7-3 “over” run in most recent King games, tonight’s over/under is 7.5 points lower than any other King game during this span.
But if we consider the Knicks’ shot profile, then we discover significant value in backing the Knick offense tonight.
The Knicks love to attempt the kind of shots that Sacramento struggles so mightily to defend. They attempt the fifth-highest rate of field goals within five feet of the basket.
So they will find more success against the King defense than they do against other defenses.
On defense, Sacramento is immune to match-up advantages.
For example, the Kings faced a Raptor offense that ranks close to last, 27th, in points in the paint per game, which is 15 spots lower than New York.
In Sacramento, Toronto produced 62 points in the paint en route to a 144-point output.
New York’s Weapons
Multiple Knick players are in a great spot tonight. One guy to look for is former early first-round draft selection RJ Barrett. Barrett was never known for his shooting ability. But he was touted for his driving ability.
Barrett loves to receive dribble-handoffs. The dribble-handoff gives him a spatial edge against his defender and it also gives him momentum going downhill in the paint.
When inside the paint, he’ll flash a variety of moves like a step-back, dribble hesitation, and euro step in order to procure a favorable opportunity at the rim.
He’ll also behave as if he’s going to pass the ball to a nearby teammate in the post in order to cause his defender to overthink.
With his driving ability. Barrett has been consistently solid lately. He’s scored a combined total of 109 points in his past five games, scoring between 19 and 28 in each of them.
His match-up tonight looks especially favorable since his counterpart is Hield.
Power forward Julius Randle, New York’s leading scorer, enjoys a strong match-up being guarded by King bigs like Bagley, who will provide a much easier test than the high-caliber power forwards that Randle has successfully navigated this season.
Randle will back a defender in the paint. But he also isn’t afraid to pull up or step back for a jump shot.
Edge In The Paint
New York is enjoying a three-game win streak largely because of the edge that it enjoys in the paint.
During this streak, the Knicks have outscored teams 140-102 in the paint.
They allow the seventh-lowest field goal percentage against shots attempted within five feet of the basket.
This last statistic is important because, like the Knicks, the Kings rely heavily for their offense on driving to the basket.
As measured by defensive rating, Barrett and Randle are two examples of Knick players who have significant advantages on defense over their Sacramento counterparts.
So Barrett and Randle will thrive at the basket on offense, while offering greater resistance on defense.
Points Off Turnovers
One common theme lately has been the Knicks’ vulnerability to turnovers.
The likelihood that they give the ball away — they rank 19th in turnovers per offensive play — will feed a Sacramento transition attack that doesn’t even rely on turnovers to ignite itself.
As supported by stats like frequency of field goal attempts in transition and PPP (points per play) in transition, Sacramento is built to thrive in transition with speedsters like De’Aaron Fox who will aptly race down the court given the opportunity.
The Kings’ ability to run via its transition game will help them quicken the pace of tonight’s contest in order to create more shot attempts.
The Verdict
New York has great value as an underdog given its edge in front of the rim, given Sacramento’s recent trends, and given the Knicks’ recent play.
The Kings will contribute to the point total especially with their rim-attacking prowess in transition, which will help them continue to be one of the NBA’s more up-tempo teams. More field goal attempts will help the game’s overall point total.
Best Bet: Parlay Knicks +4 at -110 & Over 218 at -115 at +257 odds with Bookmaker
