NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
New York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, January 26, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
Utah Jazz Three-Point Attack
Utah loves to shoot three-pointers.
The Jazz rank third in attempting 41.6 of them per game.
They are also great at what they do, ranking second in converting 40.3 percent of their three-point attempts.
This group can be effective when attempting three-pointers under pressure. They rank 10th in three-point percentage when they are tightly guarded, meaning when the closest defender is within two-to-four feet of them.
But one important theme for this Best Bet is expressed in the following statistic: Utah attempts the second-highest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
Wide open is here defined as the defender nearest the shooter being six or more feet away from him when he releases his three-point attempt.
I’ve talked before about how the Jazz stated before this season began that they wanted to attempt a lot more three-pointers.
Their uptick in three-pointers, though, isn’t just the product of a verbal promise.
This uptick is also a product of necessity, of having to cope with the injury of a top-level three-point shooter — Bojan Bogdanovic — whom the team had really counted on for his productivity behind the arc.
No, Bogdanovic is alive and well right now. But last year he suffered a wrist injury that kept him out of a lot of games.
Bogdanovic’s injury has turned out to be a blessing in disguise while he has actually been a relative “weak” link in the team’s three-point shooting impetus. After converting over 40-percent of his three-point attempts last season, his three-point percentage this season is 37.4.
Without him available, other players were called to step up from behind the arc. Their ability to step up then has stuck with them now, making this team as dangerous from three-point land as it is now.
If you compare the number of three-pointers that Utah player attempted before they entered the bubble last season and after they entered it plus this season, you’ll see a visible difference.
Donovan Mitchell is attempting a lot more threes, as are Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, and Royce O’Neal.
Those five players are all converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.
Utah will utilize positive spacing in order to punish teams inside, which will force the defense to collapse, which will create open shooting opportunities behind the arc.
Center Rudy Gobert can work inside and kick it back out to an open shooter.
With ball-screens, the Jazz also don’t need to work inside-outside in order to create these open shot attempts.
Allowing Three-Point Attempts
The Knicks have faced two teams — the only two — that attempt more threes per game than the Jazz.
They just barely backdoor-covered against Portland, which converted 17 of 46 three-point attempts.
New York failed to cover against the other higher-volume three-point shooting team, Toronto, which converted 17 of 52 three-point attempts.
Neither of those two opposing three-point shooting percentages is especially high.
Knocking down 40.3 percent of its three-point attempts as a team, Utah is geared to outshoot both Toronto and Portland.
The Knicks remained close to Portland because they were unusually efficient from behind the arc.
But don’t expect a Knick squad that ranks 24th in three-point shooting percentage to keep pace with the Jazz.
New York matches up so poorly with high-volume three-point shooting squads because of its perimeter defense.
The Knicks allow the third-highest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
So 11 points — which is the spread posted by oddsmakers — may seem like a lot.
But we’re only asking for Utah to make four more three-pointers than New York.
Given their personnel and their opportunities against New York’s perimeter defense, four more three-pointers appears eminently reasonable to ask for from Utah.
Other Potential Sources of Offense: Knicks
Besides not being able to keep pace from deep, New York is in a terrible place offensively tonight for one other reason: Rudy Gobert.
The Knicks, partly because they do not shoot well, want to attempt shots at the rim. They want to attack the basket, which is why they attempt one of the highest rates of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket per game.
Utah, though, features two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, who is at his best when he is patrolling the rim.
Knick center Mitchell Robinson does not attempt threes. So he will not help the Knick offense by drawing Gobert away from the basket in order to account for him from behind the arc.
Other Potential Sources of Offense: Jazz
Utah runs the pick-and-roll for its ball-handler with the highest frequency.
But the Knick ball-screen defense is strong, ranking ninth-best in limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on this play-type.
The Knicks’ ball-screen defense is well-tested and consistently successful in terms of keeping opponents who run a lot of ball-screens below their average scoring output.
When the Jazz met New York, they only scored 100 points in a loss.
In that game, the Jazz could have performed drastically better, though. They only converted 14 of 44 three-point attempts, many of which were wide open. This inefficiency also hurt them on the defensive end.
But now Utah is hot, converting 42.6 percent of its three-point attempts in its last three games.
The Verdict
Utah has covered eight games in a row thanks to its effectivity on both sides of the ball.
Between the Knicks contending with Gobert at the rim and failing to keep pace from deep, Utah promises to pull away with a 12+-point victory.
Given the lack of other scoring options — also with New York’s stout ball-screen defense — the game will stay under.
Best Bet: Parlay Jazz -11 at -105 & Under 213 at -109 at +274 odds with Bookmaker
New York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, January 26, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
Utah Jazz Three-Point Attack
Utah loves to shoot three-pointers.
The Jazz rank third in attempting 41.6 of them per game.
They are also great at what they do, ranking second in converting 40.3 percent of their three-point attempts.
This group can be effective when attempting three-pointers under pressure. They rank 10th in three-point percentage when they are tightly guarded, meaning when the closest defender is within two-to-four feet of them.
But one important theme for this Best Bet is expressed in the following statistic: Utah attempts the second-highest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
Wide open is here defined as the defender nearest the shooter being six or more feet away from him when he releases his three-point attempt.
I’ve talked before about how the Jazz stated before this season began that they wanted to attempt a lot more three-pointers.
Their uptick in three-pointers, though, isn’t just the product of a verbal promise.
This uptick is also a product of necessity, of having to cope with the injury of a top-level three-point shooter — Bojan Bogdanovic — whom the team had really counted on for his productivity behind the arc.
No, Bogdanovic is alive and well right now. But last year he suffered a wrist injury that kept him out of a lot of games.
Bogdanovic’s injury has turned out to be a blessing in disguise while he has actually been a relative “weak” link in the team’s three-point shooting impetus. After converting over 40-percent of his three-point attempts last season, his three-point percentage this season is 37.4.
Without him available, other players were called to step up from behind the arc. Their ability to step up then has stuck with them now, making this team as dangerous from three-point land as it is now.
If you compare the number of three-pointers that Utah player attempted before they entered the bubble last season and after they entered it plus this season, you’ll see a visible difference.
Donovan Mitchell is attempting a lot more threes, as are Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, and Royce O’Neal.
Those five players are all converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.
Utah will utilize positive spacing in order to punish teams inside, which will force the defense to collapse, which will create open shooting opportunities behind the arc.
Center Rudy Gobert can work inside and kick it back out to an open shooter.
With ball-screens, the Jazz also don’t need to work inside-outside in order to create these open shot attempts.
Allowing Three-Point Attempts
The Knicks have faced two teams — the only two — that attempt more threes per game than the Jazz.
They just barely backdoor-covered against Portland, which converted 17 of 46 three-point attempts.
New York failed to cover against the other higher-volume three-point shooting team, Toronto, which converted 17 of 52 three-point attempts.
Neither of those two opposing three-point shooting percentages is especially high.
Knocking down 40.3 percent of its three-point attempts as a team, Utah is geared to outshoot both Toronto and Portland.
The Knicks remained close to Portland because they were unusually efficient from behind the arc.
But don’t expect a Knick squad that ranks 24th in three-point shooting percentage to keep pace with the Jazz.
New York matches up so poorly with high-volume three-point shooting squads because of its perimeter defense.
The Knicks allow the third-highest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
So 11 points — which is the spread posted by oddsmakers — may seem like a lot.
But we’re only asking for Utah to make four more three-pointers than New York.
Given their personnel and their opportunities against New York’s perimeter defense, four more three-pointers appears eminently reasonable to ask for from Utah.
Other Potential Sources of Offense: Knicks
Besides not being able to keep pace from deep, New York is in a terrible place offensively tonight for one other reason: Rudy Gobert.
The Knicks, partly because they do not shoot well, want to attempt shots at the rim. They want to attack the basket, which is why they attempt one of the highest rates of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket per game.
Utah, though, features two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, who is at his best when he is patrolling the rim.
Knick center Mitchell Robinson does not attempt threes. So he will not help the Knick offense by drawing Gobert away from the basket in order to account for him from behind the arc.
Other Potential Sources of Offense: Jazz
Utah runs the pick-and-roll for its ball-handler with the highest frequency.
But the Knick ball-screen defense is strong, ranking ninth-best in limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on this play-type.
The Knicks’ ball-screen defense is well-tested and consistently successful in terms of keeping opponents who run a lot of ball-screens below their average scoring output.
When the Jazz met New York, they only scored 100 points in a loss.
In that game, the Jazz could have performed drastically better, though. They only converted 14 of 44 three-point attempts, many of which were wide open. This inefficiency also hurt them on the defensive end.
But now Utah is hot, converting 42.6 percent of its three-point attempts in its last three games.
The Verdict
Utah has covered eight games in a row thanks to its effectivity on both sides of the ball.
Between the Knicks contending with Gobert at the rim and failing to keep pace from deep, Utah promises to pull away with a 12+-point victory.
Given the lack of other scoring options — also with New York’s stout ball-screen defense — the game will stay under.
Best Bet: Parlay Jazz -11 at -105 & Under 213 at -109 at +274 odds with Bookmaker
