NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, May 28, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
5:06 Left To Go
With 5:06 left to go in the fourth quarter of Game 2, the score was 91-91.
In this period of 5:06 and throughout the game, Hawk offensive players enjoyed sundry scoring opportunities that they failed to take advantage of.
They are able to achieve open three-point shots. But, relative to their regular season average, they are underachieving in their conversion rate.
Through two playoff games, the Hawks are converting 21.2 percent of their open three-point attempts.
This poor conversion rate is especially deleterious to Atlanta’s scoring output because the Hawks are attempting a lot of open three-pointers.
But as the Knick defense continues to concede these open three-point attempts, the Hawks are bound to take advantage especially at home because, during the regular season, they converted open three-point attempts at a 15.2 percent higher rate.
One of the biggest underachievers is Bogdan Bogdanovic.
In those last five minutes, he missed three three-pointers. Through two playoff games, he is shooting 6-of-22 from behind the arc with most of those misses coming in Game 2.
Normally, Bogdanovic is a superb three-point shooter, especially at home. During the regular season, he converted 46.6 percent of his three-point attempts in Atlanta.
So I expect him above all to make up in Game 3 for what he failed to do in Game 2.
Danilo Gallinari is also valuable because he’s likewise a high-volume shooter. He’s converting 18.3 percent of his three-point attempts in these playoffs, although he shot 40.6 percent from deep during the regular season.
Bogdanovic and Gallinari are important when Young draws defenders to himself and locates potential shooters to exploit the attention that he draws for himself.
Pick-and-Roll
When Trae Young wants to score, he loves to do so via the pick-and-roll.
He also creates for others by tossing lobs when the defense devotes too much attention to preventing him from scoring.
The Knick defense has not found a way to stop the Hawk ball-screen game.
In the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler plays, Atlanta ranks third in PPP (points per possession) among playoff teams so far.
Stopping Julius Randle
Whereas the Knicks are struggling to stop Trae Young from being both a prolific scorer and distributor, Atlanta has an answer for Julius Randle.
Randle is crucial for the Knick offense. In the regular season, he led the team by scoring 6.5 more points per game than any other Knick player. He also led the team in assists.
The problem with Randle is that he loves to score posting-up or via isolation.
During the regular season, he ranked sixth in the NBA in frequency of isolation plays and 25th in frequency of post-up plays.
Against Atlanta, he is being guarded man-to-man on the perimeter and being clouded by multiple defenders when he tries to penetrate inside.
Hawk defenders are not allowing him to post-up and are not allowing him near the basket.
While Randle’s scoring is limited, he isn’t be able to be a difference-maker like Young.
Young is a much more productive distributor. In the regular season, he ranked second in assists per game.
Atlanta will cover the spread by getting more out of its star player and by amassing more support from teammates.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 28, 2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at American Airlines Center in Dallas
Believing In Paul George
While the Clippers have elicited a lot of doubt and even derision after losing Games 1 and 2 at home, they are not out of it.
They only need to do to Dallas what Dallas did to them: win multiple road games.
The Clippers would have won Game 2 with a stronger performance from Paul George. As a primary shot-taker in the Clipper offense, he is crucial to the team’s success
George has the reputation of performing poorly in the playoffs. Because of this reputation, doubters call him “Playoff P.”
But the statistics do not justify this reputation. Of course, his numbers will look worse in the playoffs because, in the playoffs, one doesn’t get to play bottom-feeders. One plays the best teams.
However, his career playoff numbers are only a bit worse than his career regular season ones. HIs field goal percentage, for example, drops by 1.4.
Why George Can Bounce Back
In Game 2, George converted one of seven of his three-point attempts.
This represents a massive underachievement relative to his regular season three-point conversion rate of 41.1 percent.
He should continue to be a high-volume shooter, as always.
Even on the road, he gets a great opportunity to bounce back against a Maverick perimeter defense that is consistently porous.
In the regular season, Dallas ranked 20th in running opponents off the three-point line and 18th in limiting opposing three-point attempts.
They gave up the second-most open three-point attempts in the regular season. During the playoffs, they are giving up the fourth-most wide open three-point attempts per game.
L.A. simply needs to take advantage of opportunities that it has been exploiting throughout the season as one of the best three-point shooting teams by makes per game.
George is one big part of the Clippers' three-point shooting prowess.
Value
Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the NBA. In the regular season, the Mavs ranked ninth-worst in defensive rating
While the Clippers can’t stop Luka Doncic, the Mavs can’t stop Kawhi Leonard, who accrued 41 points in Game 2.
But with Paul George, L.A. arguably has the third-best player on the court.
Dallas needs to rely on a large supporting cast to overcome the Kawhi-PG scoring combo.
But the Mavs have been overachieving considerably from beyond the arc relative to their regular season average.
With the spread as short as it is, this is a great and uniquely reasonable spot to back the Clippers.
Best Bet: Parlay Hawks -4 at -110 & Clippers -2 at -110 at +264 odds with Bookmaker
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, May 28, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
5:06 Left To Go
With 5:06 left to go in the fourth quarter of Game 2, the score was 91-91.
In this period of 5:06 and throughout the game, Hawk offensive players enjoyed sundry scoring opportunities that they failed to take advantage of.
They are able to achieve open three-point shots. But, relative to their regular season average, they are underachieving in their conversion rate.
Through two playoff games, the Hawks are converting 21.2 percent of their open three-point attempts.
This poor conversion rate is especially deleterious to Atlanta’s scoring output because the Hawks are attempting a lot of open three-pointers.
But as the Knick defense continues to concede these open three-point attempts, the Hawks are bound to take advantage especially at home because, during the regular season, they converted open three-point attempts at a 15.2 percent higher rate.
One of the biggest underachievers is Bogdan Bogdanovic.
In those last five minutes, he missed three three-pointers. Through two playoff games, he is shooting 6-of-22 from behind the arc with most of those misses coming in Game 2.
Normally, Bogdanovic is a superb three-point shooter, especially at home. During the regular season, he converted 46.6 percent of his three-point attempts in Atlanta.
So I expect him above all to make up in Game 3 for what he failed to do in Game 2.
Danilo Gallinari is also valuable because he’s likewise a high-volume shooter. He’s converting 18.3 percent of his three-point attempts in these playoffs, although he shot 40.6 percent from deep during the regular season.
Bogdanovic and Gallinari are important when Young draws defenders to himself and locates potential shooters to exploit the attention that he draws for himself.
Pick-and-Roll
When Trae Young wants to score, he loves to do so via the pick-and-roll.
He also creates for others by tossing lobs when the defense devotes too much attention to preventing him from scoring.
The Knick defense has not found a way to stop the Hawk ball-screen game.
In the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler plays, Atlanta ranks third in PPP (points per possession) among playoff teams so far.
Stopping Julius Randle
Whereas the Knicks are struggling to stop Trae Young from being both a prolific scorer and distributor, Atlanta has an answer for Julius Randle.
Randle is crucial for the Knick offense. In the regular season, he led the team by scoring 6.5 more points per game than any other Knick player. He also led the team in assists.
The problem with Randle is that he loves to score posting-up or via isolation.
During the regular season, he ranked sixth in the NBA in frequency of isolation plays and 25th in frequency of post-up plays.
Against Atlanta, he is being guarded man-to-man on the perimeter and being clouded by multiple defenders when he tries to penetrate inside.
Hawk defenders are not allowing him to post-up and are not allowing him near the basket.
While Randle’s scoring is limited, he isn’t be able to be a difference-maker like Young.
Young is a much more productive distributor. In the regular season, he ranked second in assists per game.
Atlanta will cover the spread by getting more out of its star player and by amassing more support from teammates.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 28, 2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at American Airlines Center in Dallas
Believing In Paul George
While the Clippers have elicited a lot of doubt and even derision after losing Games 1 and 2 at home, they are not out of it.
They only need to do to Dallas what Dallas did to them: win multiple road games.
The Clippers would have won Game 2 with a stronger performance from Paul George. As a primary shot-taker in the Clipper offense, he is crucial to the team’s success
George has the reputation of performing poorly in the playoffs. Because of this reputation, doubters call him “Playoff P.”
But the statistics do not justify this reputation. Of course, his numbers will look worse in the playoffs because, in the playoffs, one doesn’t get to play bottom-feeders. One plays the best teams.
However, his career playoff numbers are only a bit worse than his career regular season ones. HIs field goal percentage, for example, drops by 1.4.
Why George Can Bounce Back
In Game 2, George converted one of seven of his three-point attempts.
This represents a massive underachievement relative to his regular season three-point conversion rate of 41.1 percent.
He should continue to be a high-volume shooter, as always.
Even on the road, he gets a great opportunity to bounce back against a Maverick perimeter defense that is consistently porous.
In the regular season, Dallas ranked 20th in running opponents off the three-point line and 18th in limiting opposing three-point attempts.
They gave up the second-most open three-point attempts in the regular season. During the playoffs, they are giving up the fourth-most wide open three-point attempts per game.
L.A. simply needs to take advantage of opportunities that it has been exploiting throughout the season as one of the best three-point shooting teams by makes per game.
George is one big part of the Clippers' three-point shooting prowess.
Value
Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the NBA. In the regular season, the Mavs ranked ninth-worst in defensive rating
While the Clippers can’t stop Luka Doncic, the Mavs can’t stop Kawhi Leonard, who accrued 41 points in Game 2.
But with Paul George, L.A. arguably has the third-best player on the court.
Dallas needs to rely on a large supporting cast to overcome the Kawhi-PG scoring combo.
But the Mavs have been overachieving considerably from beyond the arc relative to their regular season average.
With the spread as short as it is, this is a great and uniquely reasonable spot to back the Clippers.
Best Bet: Parlay Hawks -4 at -110 & Clippers -2 at -110 at +264 odds with Bookmaker
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