KJ Week 2 Aussie

[KJ]

Did more than expected the first week but boredom is the devil's playground, lost a little but time to do something. Also, pretty awesome that the retirements have been virtually nil.

Already on:

Sinner/FAA parlay +133 3*
Sinner -4.5 -105 3*
Halep -5.5/Sabalenka ML +127 2*

Adding tonight

FAA -162 4*
Iga -5.5/Sabalenka ML +160 2*
Fritz +3.5 -125 2*
Fritz ML +150

1/24

Shap +4.5 -110 3*
Shap ML +210
Monfils/Berretini o39.5 -115 4*
Monfils ML +130 2*
Keys ML +100 1.5*

1/25

Sinner ML -150 6*
Sinner -2.5 -110 3*
Cornet +4.5 -125 3*
Cornet ML +230
Iga/Kanepi o19.5 -130 2*
Med/Rafa parlay -143 10*
FAA/Med o33.5 -120 4*
Med to win and both FAA/Med to win a set +155 2*

1/26

Rafa/Iga parlay +141 4*
Mad Keys +4.5 -105 3*
Mad Keys ML +350
live Keys set 2 +625
Collins/Iga o21.5 -125 5*

1/27

Rafa/Med parlay +115 5*
Med to win v Tsitsipas and both win at least one set +135 3*
Med to win the Open -110 3*

1/28

Barty/Med parlay -119 5*

1/29

Med to win and both win a set +150 2*

 

[KJ]

Fritz +3.5 -125 2*
Fritz ML +150

 

[Big daddy naught]

Late night could be profitable for you

 

[KJ]

1/25

Sinner ML -150 6*
Sinner -2.5 -110 3*
Cornet +4.5 -125 3*
Cornet ML +230
Iga/Kanepi o19.5 -130 2*

 

[Tin&Lint]

Cornet a play on her or more against Collins? Cornet looked like she won war of attrition vs Halep. Wasn’t anything where I came away impressed.

Like the Sinner play.

 

[KJ]

Cornet a play on her or more against Collins? Cornet looked like she won war of attrition vs Halep. Wasn’t anything where I came away impressed.

Like the Sinner play.

Would normally play against Cornet after such an emotional win but Collins went 3 hard sets too. I don't think Cornet will beat herself here and at such a significant plus money situation, it's definitely a play against Collins more than anything. She out Halep'd Simona which is tough to do.

Doubt I'd do much if she was only a slight dog but these are significant numbers, not sure what Collins has done to warrant being that kind of a favorite.

 

[teejay]

Shap +4.5 -110 3*

tailed you KJ -- I was able to get +104 on most of my bet and +130 on a smaller portion due to a odds boost

 

[KJ]

Shap +4.5 -110 3*

tailed you KJ

Let's get Canadian, eh?

 

[KJ]

Cornet a play on her or more against Collins? Cornet looked like she won war of attrition vs Halep. Wasn’t anything where I came away impressed.

Like the Sinner play.

Also forgot about it but Collins also played doubles after her match yesterday, there was another 20 games (they lost 4-6, 4-6) but that's a bunch of tennis she's played

 

[Big daddy naught]

On cornet +4 heavy

 

[KJ]

On cornet +4 heavy

She cashed her chips in once she lost the 12th game in the 1st, great tournament for her obv but that took all the wind out the sail

 

[Big daddy naught]

She cashed her chips in once she lost the 12th game in the 1st, great tournament for her obv but that took all the wind out the sail

Agreed lol

 

[teejay]

tsitsipas looks very good early - gl --- am on it with you

 

[KJ]

Yuck, Sinner gots lotsa learning to do

Med/Rafa parlay -143 10*
FAA/Med o33.5 -120 4*
Med to win and both FAA/Med to win a set +155 2*

 

[Big daddy naught]

Man FAA playing over his head tn

 

[Big daddy naught]

What a match

 

[KJ]

1/26

Rafa/Iga parlay +141 4*
Mad Keys +4.5 -105 3*
Mad Keys ML +350

Prolly play something about Barty/Keys going 3 sets but going to keep it in the fairway til after this late match

 

[KJ]

1/27

Rafa/Med parlay +115 5*

 

[KJ]

live Keys set 2 +625

 

[KJ]

Madison played scared, no plan, no adjustments, no confidence. That was pathetic. That she made hundreds of thousands for that is a crime, she looked so lost a forfeit would have looked better.

Collins/Iga o21.5 -125 5*

 

[KJ]

Fucking awful last night, at least Rafa and Med can make up for it

Med to win v Tsitsipas and both win at least one set +135 3*

 

[KJ]

Med to win the Open -110 3*

 

[KJ]

Championship parlay of the favorites

Barty/Med parlay -119 5*

 

[KJ]

Med to win and both win a set +150 2*

 

[Big daddy naught]

Im on Collins +5.5. She whopped Barty in Adelaide last yr and in 2020 lost 7-6 in 3rd. If she doesn’t come out like keys did she should stay in this imo.

Heart wants rafa as this is his best shot to get another slam (Obv French is always possible but health you never know)

 

[Big daddy naught]

Mens doubles total over ?

 

[KJ]

Mens doubles total over ?

Doubles do they play 2 sets then the third is a first to 10 TB?

 

[2daBank]

Im on Collins +5.5. She whopped Barty in Adelaide last yr and in 2020 lost 7-6 in 3rd. If she doesn’t come out like keys did she should stay in this imo.

Heart wants rafa as this is his best shot to get another slam (Obv French is always possible but health you never know)

If Med could stop my guy joker from getting 21 I like his chances of doing same to rafa. Of course last match was 1st I saw from either this tourney but I think Med gonna be tough to beat. Think i would prefer over to rafa if I wanted to root for him, Med gonna be tough to break imo.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Doubles do they play 2 sets then the third is a first to 10 TB?

3rd is a regular set but if it goes to tb in 3rd it’s a 10 pt tb

 

[Big daddy naught]

Collins fired the fuck up

 

[Big daddy naught]

Barty a mess rn

 

[KJ]

3rd is a regular set but if it goes to tb in 3rd it’s a 10 pt tb

Ok. Other tournaments it's been no set, just the TB but didn't know about the major.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Damn if she held there my + virtually in the bag. Not now

 

[2daBank]

Damn if she held there my + virtually in the bag. Not now

I was slightly glad she held early 2nd when Barty had her broke so you could cash, obviously the way that worked best was barty winning this set tho!

 

[2daBank]

Here we go!! Barty might just take this 2-0 like she supposed to and big daddy can cash +5.5!!

 

[teejay]

Med to win and both win a set +150 2*

I dont have this exact option at my book however i can bet:

Med to win 3-1 +330
Med to win 3-2 +480

If I were to say, put $100 on each of these then it would be the equivalent as yours-- ? What am I missing?

 

[KJ]

I dont have this exact option at my book however i can bet:

Med to win 3-1 +330
Med to win 3-2 +480

If I were to say, put $100 on each of these then it would be the equivalent as yours-- ? What am I missing?

It would be the same, not sure how the math compares

I really wanted to find a way to get 10 units on Med to win and have done it with the worst odds at -119, now going to figure out the game plan for 1:30. If Rafa beats him, it's a significant loss but good for him if he does. I just don't think he will.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Not on it but rooting hard for rafa but not confident he can do it

 

[teejay]

If he wins then I am guaranteed to lose one of the bets so I guess it comes out in math to:

$200 to win $330 = +165 average
$200 to win $480 = +240 average

obviously if Rafa wins or Med wins in straight sets the bet is a total loss