KJ Euro '24 Knockouts/Copa KOs

[KJ]

-45.57 groups

Had to give up on groups prematurely because it was clear that there was little rhyme or reason as to what was going on outside of Germans and Spain. Not to mention some incredibly boring matches the last couple days that I was fortunate to sleep through for the most part.

Going to try to post most of the match plays 45 minutes to an hour before kickoff so you have plenty of time to find the best price to fade.

Futures

Group Winner to Win Euros -175 4*
Austria to Reach Semis +220
Switzerland to Reach Semis +450 .5*
Germany to Reach Semis +110

6/29

Switzerland to advance +110 2*
Switzerland ML +220
Germany/Denmark u2.5 -110 2*
Germany/Denmark u1.5 +240 .5*

6/30

England/Slovakia u2.5 -130
Spain -1.75 -135 3*

7/1

France tt o1.5 +100 2*
France ML -105 2*
Portugal -1.5 +100 3*
Portugal tt o2.5 +160
Bolivia/Panama u2.25 -105 2*

7/2

Austria ML -105 5*
Austria to advance -220 2*
live HT Austria to advance +155 3*

7/5

Germany pk -105 2*
Portugal ML +235
Portugal to advance +115

7/6

Switzerland +.25 -115 3*
Netherlands/Turkey o2.5 -125 3*
Netherlands/Turkey o2.75 -105 2*
Netherlands/Turkey BTTS -115
Colombia ML/Brazil to advance +132 2*
Brazil ML +170 2*
Uruguay/Brazil u2 -135 2*
Uruguay/Brazil u1.75

7/9

Spain to advance/Argentina ML +147 5*
Spain ML +175 2*
HT Argentina tt o2.5 +210 2*

7/10

1h England -.5 corners +125
Colombia pk +105 4*
Colombia ML +220

 

[KJ]

6/29

Switzerland to advance +110 2*
Switzerland ML +220

 

[B.A.R.]

Go get em

 

[KJ]

Go get em

One half of the bracket is ridiculously sick

The other half has England which could make anyone sick watching them

 

[KJ]

Austria to Reach Semis +220
Switzerland to Reach Semis +450 .5*
Germany to Reach Semis +110

 

[KJ]

Also not going to make a thread about an African tournament which I know nothing about but 8 matches in there have been a total of 7 goals. They play in the windows prior to Euros if you're looking for fun under action early on.

3 matches with 2 goals, 1 with 1 goal, 4 with 0 goals. Pretty sure the only matches with totals at 1.5 (yes this is a thing there) haven't seen 2 goals.

 

[wiseplayer]

You like Switzerland today? Your thoughts? GL

 

[KJ]

You like Switzerland today? Your thoughts? GL

More or less I don't think Italy does anything any more spectacularly than the Swiss and if it was lined more evenly I'd probably just take a token bet on Swiss to advance. Could be a real snoozer, getting plus money. +.25 is -145 so rather just go the plus money route. I don't really love the Swiss per se but taking them to get past Italy and England to get to the semis is more a play against those two teams than it is a play on Switzerland.

I'd assume Italy and England would both get a majority of the wagers, not even paying attention to that but Swiss are very capable.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I‘m a Germany fan so I hope you‘re right but I think this team is so overrated based on its destruction of tactically idiotic Scotland. The score in game 2 was so misrepresentative of how it looked against Hungary and then it nearly lost to Switzerland. So I just don’t think we‘ve seen much from Germany unless Kroos is totally unpressured like against Scotland. But I do understand there might be even less to like from Denmark so far. Go Germans!

 

[KJ]

Germany/Denmark u2.5 -110 2*
Germany/Denmark u1.5 +240 .5*

 

[peelpub94]

More or less I don't think Italy does anything any more spectacularly than the Swiss and if it was lined more evenly I'd probably just take a token bet on Swiss to advance. Could be a real snoozer, getting plus money. +.25 is -145 so rather just go the plus money route. I don't really love the Swiss per se but taking them to get past Italy and England to get to the semis is more a play against those two teams than it is a play on Switzerland.

I'd assume Italy and England would both get a majority of the wagers, not even paying attention to that but Swiss are very capable.

Great read on this one, friend.

 

[B.A.R.]

6/29

Switzerland to advance +110 2*
Switzerland ML +220

Almost there!

 

[KJ]

Great read on this one, friend.

Really wasn't expecting them to dominate like this and it helps that Italians look hapless with the ball.

 

[peelpub94]

Really wasn't expecting them to dominate like this and it helps that Italians look hapless with the ball.

All my Italian soccer buddy freaks had zero hope going into the Euros period.

 

[KJ]

All my Italian soccer buddy freaks had zero hope going into the Euros period.

They pretty much lived down to the expectations today I guess

Reality is they had to score in the 98th minute the other day just to get in to the KOs I believe, not sure if they would have been in if they didn't

 

[wiseplayer]

Really wasn't expecting them to dominate like this and it helps that Italians look hapless with the ball.

Italy was terrible the entire tournament. They scored 2 goals in game 1 of group play in the 1st 15 minutes and were inept offensively ever since.

 

[KJ]

6/30

England/Slovakia u2.5 -130

Just a unit in case Slovakia goes on a scoring spree, they did score in all three group stage matches which means I should take the +1.25 but at -135 I'll just stick with the one unit on the under.

 

[sjmartin57ca]

Pickford injured in warmup sounds like he may not play.

 

[KJ]

Pickford injured in warmup sounds like he may not play.

Not really sure if it matters which of the other two they'd go to, both are experienced enough

 

[KJ]

Hard to do much with this Spain mismatch, if you're the type like me that's not afraid to use a -500 ML to tie into other wagers, it's still value. Heck it's value to bet the ML straight. They haven't given up a goal yet. They're playing GEORGIA ffs. I already have one that's waiting for Spain ML to win.

Rather do the spread as opposed to Georgia u.5 goals -165 just because assuming they don't score, the handicap shouldn't have any problem getting home.

Spain -1.75 -135 3*

 

[KJ]

Pretty simple today, Belgium back line is older and really not all that much quality, French don't allow goals. Slovenia has allowed the 3rd most SOG this tournament, good luck with the 8-10 Portugal players that would love a shot at that.

7/1

France tt o1.5 +100 2*
France ML -105 2*
Portugal -1.5 +100 3*
Portugal tt o2.5 +160

 

[KJ]

Late Copa add

Bolivia/Panama u2.25 -105 2*

 

[KJ]

7/2

Austria ML -105 5*

I will be watching live and if it's 0-0 at 25' will take them at pk for more

 

[KJ]

Austria to advance -220 2*

 

[KJ]

live HT Austria to advance +155 3*

 

[KJ]

Impressive match from the Turks, sometimes you just gotta tip your cap

7/5

Germany pk -105 2*
Portugal ML +235
Portugal to advance +115

 

[KJ]

Obviously things have taken a turn for the worse but gotta keep going. Outside of Spain I don't think anyone has looked as good as the Swiss against the Italians. Italy were inept offensively but I can't overlook how well the Swiss just sucked the life out of them and were incredible doing it. Already have the play on them to reach the semis so going to just play to where a draw actually pays.

Other match, Dutch should both allow and score goals, Turks were plenty impressive against Austria at not turning the ball over against the press.

7/6

Switzerland +.25 -115 3*
Netherlands/Turkey o2.5 -125 3*
Netherlands/Turkey o2.75 -105 2*
Netherlands/Turkey BTTS -115

 

[KJ]

Copa

Colombia ML/Brazil to advance +132 2*
Brazil ML +170 2* (have draw protection on this and that plays a big part in the wager, Uruguay are very live but I'm not fading Brazil)

 

[KJ]

Didn't even realize Vinny Jr was out tonight, this likely is lower scoring between two incredible teams even w/o Vinny and Neymar

Uruguay/Brazil u2 -135 2*
Uruguay/Brazil u1.75

Not smart to take a goal scorer when betting under those numbers but if I had to it would be Raphinha +330 anytime. Might take a stab if it's 0-0 at HT. That said this Uruguay team is loaded

 

[KJ]

7/9

Spain to advance/Argentina ML +147 5*
Spain ML +175 2*

 

[B.A.R.]

7/9

Spain to advance/Argentina ML +147 5*
Spain ML +175 2*

Yep

 

[KJ]

Yep

It helps that the French defense is so stout so this doesn't seem like something square AF. Spain will have to earn it but they should. Other side, I'm not sure how this French attack can score on Spain. But for SnG let's say they do...Spain are wayyyy more likely to score 2 than France.

Copa match, oy. Argie scoring 4 in the first half wouldn't shock me. Likely add their team total but just want to sit back and watch Euro first. Spain v France is really pretty special regardless the handicap.

 

[Marsski]

Thoughts on Canada's likely strategy if you're around? I see them parking the bus and trying to muck it up. Thinking about 1st half under 1.

 

[KJ]

Thoughts on Canada's likely strategy if you're around? I see them parking the bus and trying to muck it up. Thinking about 1st half under 1.

Sadly that is actually what just woke me up

 

[KJ]

Thoughts on Canada's likely strategy if you're around? I see them parking the bus and trying to muck it up. Thinking about 1st half under 1.

It's been a battle for Canada to keep this within reason from what I've seen including the box, I really didn't see the first 35 minutes. I will be heavy on ALGERIEA in the 2h and anyone who has known me for the last decade knows how much I can't stand ANGEL. But this is such a mismatch.

Hello team total

 

[Marsski]

It's been a battle for Canada to keep this within reason from what I've seen including the box, I really didn't see the first 35 minutes. I will be heavy on ALGERIEA in the 2h and anyone who has known me for the last decade knows how much I can't stand ANGEL. But this is such a mismatch.

Hello team total

I took under 2.5 pre flop....I kind of agree, BUT I also see Canada continuing to drop everyone back until the last few minutes if they can...

 

[KJ]

I'll post it, just took it with a boost

HT Argentina tt o2.5 +210 2*

 

[KJ]

I took under 2.5 pre flop....I kind of agree, BUT I also see Canada continuing to drop everyone back until the last few minutes if they can...

That should be their plan, they simply aren't good enough to execute it imo

 

[KJ]

No real reason to bet Dutch/England today, If England progress it will ensure my future since both teams won their groups

I do think this new formation if anything encourages a more open match, just hard to take an over with England right now but I'm ok betting this and possibly chasing.

1h England -.5 corners +125

 

[KJ]

Doubt anyone wants to discuss but I'm open to it. This is simply a strong opinion on the better overall team. The other side has all the superstar power, just playing this one on who I think is the better team.

7/10

Colombia pk +105 4*
Colombia ML +220

I don't know enough about this set up as to whether they actually play extra time now or not. If it's a draw and goes to penalties I actually will be on Colombia at that point too. They are playing with zero pressure. The hot dogs on Uruguay are expected to perform. This is an incredible recipe imo, Colombia are playing the best team soccer in the world right now.