KJ Conf Ships

[KJ]

Too much going on in the other thread so going to start a new one and will try to offer thoughts...moving over.

Reg Season -35.02
Wild Card/Division +25.22

311 Packers +4.5 -110 5*
311 Packers ML +170 3*
311 Packers tt o26.5 -145 6*
312 Falcons tt o33 -115 3*
311 1h Packers/Falcons o31 +100 4*
1049 Packers/Falcons to score in final 2 minutes of 1st half -320 3*
1299 Cook longest reception o22.5 yds -125
1263 Allison o37.5 receiving yds -115 2*
1267 Cook o59.5 receiving yds -130 1.5*
1269 R Rodgers o15.5 receiving yds -130
1279 Allison o2.5 receptions -145
1283 Cook o5 receptions -125 2*
1259 A Rodgers o20.5 rushing yds -145 2*
313 Steelers ML +210 2*
313 Steelers +4.5 -110 3*
313 Steelers/Pats u51.5 -110 2*

 

[KJ]

Square City on the Pack, but I expect them to represent the NFC in the Bowl. Thought getting 4.5 was a gift and it did move to 4, but now I've gotten the worst of it as it looks like Adams may be hobbled as well, but whatever. This isn't the traditional play on ARod and the run these guys are on, it's more against Atlanta and the history that fails to show me the clutch runaway in a huge game they've not shown. See the 2013 NFC Championship game in which they should have put to bed early in the 2nd half. Yes, I know the players are somewhat different, but the franchise has that ugly rain cloud looming over them.

As a fan, I actually want to see Atlanta/NE in the super bowl...tired of the QB/QB matchup bullshit that gets hyped, I'd actually love to see that. But no way in hell am I against Rodgers and co on this heater, and public money be damned, I'm on board. Sportsbooks are on a cold streak right now, and we know they'll get back on track at some point, but who follows the losers? Not me...GB will be a big public play, and in the playoffs I'm on board. Will likely see points by both teams and could easily see 30+ from both teams, indoors, two good kickers, etc. ATL has that Mouse on the back of closing out the big one and I'll pay to see it. Will be on team totals when they come out and expect neither team to stop each other, question is who gets the big TO or even D/ST huge play? Fireworks I hope, should be an awesome game with several story lines.

 

[KJ]

I really do like under in Foxboro, expecting both defenses to show up in fine form and both offenses to adjust accordingly. Think there will be an effort by both teams to shorten the game and keep the other O off the field. Don't know the weather, but expect it to be chilly which should help take the air out of the ball. NE tries to stop Bell, Pit tries to keep everything short on defense as well, I don't see many big plays in this one. Could see some long sustained drives and if they result in FGs, it's a win for the under bet. And that coincides with the dog, as I just think the points come into play, would take PIT at 3 or more as I think this has FG type game written all over it. 23-20 type game I'd guess, and one big offensive play could make the difference, hell AB punt return could be a deal...I do trust both defenses even though neither is that great imo. They are both coached up and in a big game, I expect both to show up.

Looking forward to both games, and again as a fan I kinda want to see NE/ATL in the Bowl but not betting on that. I really can't make a case against any of the 4 teams left, so SB 51 should be plenty exciting.

 

[KJ]

311 Packers ML +170 3*
313 Steelers ML +210 2*

 

[KJ]

2202 Steelers -1 -115 5* (Super Bowl, must play Falcons)
2206 Packers +3.5 -110 2* (Super Bowl, must play NE)

 

[KJ]

2207 Patriots -3.5 -110 8* (Super Bowl, must play Falcons)

 

[KJ]

The pk line on GB/Pit is fair and no reason to go after that one, I'll be against Atlanta regardless (although removing wagers, I'll pull for them), just seems that NE and PIT should beat them more often than not imo. Controlled environment in HOU could lend to points. I don't like the ATL defense at all but big game, it's hard to go crazy with over...all teams left say over. Four great QBs left so under is suicide imo, but I can make a case depending on the teams I guess.

This is an incredible final four. Enjoy.

 

[Tito]

I agree w your w a lot of your thoughts here kj...and I want to see Atl/NE in the Sb, but i think its GB/NE


bol :shake2:

 

[KJ]

Thanks Tito, BOL to you this weekend.

I can't sell points so gotta lay the lumber

311 Packers tt o26.5 -145 6*
312 Falcons tt o33 -115 3*
311 1h Packers/Falcons o31 +100 4*

 

[KJ]

More interested in the 2nd half when the ATL notoriously gives it up like a Vegas hooker

 

[KJ]

I've laid bigger numbers and this line is very shallow

1049 Packers/Falcons to score in final 2 minutes of 1st half -320 3*

 

[KJ]

1299 Cook longest reception o22.5 yds -125
1263 Allison o37.5 receiving yds -115 2*
1267 Cook o59.5 receiving yds -130 1.5*
1269 R Rodgers o15.5 receiving yds -130
1279 Allison o2.5 receptions -145
1283 Cook o5 receptions -125 2*

Unfortunately I'm not overly confident in props for the second game today, so gotta play ball early

 

[KJ]

Great poster pushed me over the edge on this one, not a fan of the juice on it but it should be high.

1259 A Rodgers o20.5 rushing yds -145 2*

 

[Metallica]

BOL today KJ.

 

[Play2win]

Seeing it the same, do work!

 

[cxbbum]

get some KJ....\m/

 

[eggman]

With you, let's go!

 

[Timh]

BOL KJ like the Cook props and Rodgers running props. Very hard to go against Rodgers but I think the injuries to the receivers and secondary are a lot to overcome for GB today. Rodgers though is capable of pulling it out. Should be a good game.

 

[hugh613]

Hope the divisional round mojo carries over.

Good luck ~KJ.

:cheers3: