KJ Champions League KO-Round of 16

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KJ

Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'll figure out moving the record over, missed a month somewhere in there due to server issues. In the meantime, legggggoooo

Futures

Juventus to win CL +700 2.5*
Liverpool to win CL +1000 .5*
PSG to advance over Man United -190 8*
PSG to advance over Man United -150 3*
Porto to advance over Roma -120 3*
Ajax to advance over Real Madrid +280 1.5*
Liverpool to advance over Bayern -120 4*
Dortmund to advance +800 .5* (3/5)
Ajax to advance +600 .5* (3/5)


2/12

Porto +.5 -122 3*
Roma/Porto draw +220 1.5*
Roma/Porto u2.5 -113 6*
Roma tt u1.5 -110 2.5*
Man United/PSG o4.5 cards -125 2.5*
PSG +.25 -108 3*
2h PSG pk -108 1.5*
2h PSG ML +215

2/13

Ajax/Real Madrid o3 -118 8*
1h Ajax/Real Madrid o1.25 -107 4*
Ajax +.5 -102 3*
Ajax ML +275
Ajax tt o1.5 +140 2.5*
Real Madrid tt o1.5 -155 2.5*
Ajax/Real Madrid o4.5 cards -130
2h Ajax/Real Madrid o1.75 -115 10*
Spurs/Dortmund u2.5 +108 4*
Spurs pk -180 2*

2/19

Barcelona ML -147 5*
Barcelona ML -130 13*
Barcelona -.75 -116 2*
Lyon/Barcelona o3.25 +107 3*
Liverpool ML -102 10*
Liverpool ML +126 5*
Liverpool tt o1.5 -110 2.5*


2/20

Manchester City -1.75 -101 5*
Schalke/Man City o3 -116 2.5*
Man City tt o2 -145 2.5*
Atletico Madrid/Juventus draw +184 3*
Atletico Madrid/Juventus o2 -110 3*

3/5

Ajax +1 -122 3*
Ajax tt o1 -145 2.5*
Dortmund ML -108 4*
Dortmund/Spurs o3 -107 2*
Dortmund/Spurs o3 -103 6*
1h Dortmund/Spurs o1.25 +100 5*
2h Dortmund/Spurs o1.5 -110 4*

3/6

Porto/Roma u2.75 +114 3*
Roma tt u1 +105
Home goals -1.5 -140 2*
2h PSG/Man United o1.75 -105 4*
 
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Going to start with futures, not sure if waiting on PSG makes sense or not but now below -200 is green light, way, way too much weight being given to Neymar injury. This is a mismatch all over the pitch as long as they don find themselves down 4-1 or something after leg 1.

PSG to advance over Man United -190 8*
Porto to advance over Roma -120 3*
Ajax to advance over Real Madrid +280 1.5*
Liverpool to advance over Bayern -120 4*

Obviously lost a ton of value over the last several weeks on Ajax but I think they can give Madrid a run. First leg will tell the story, need to score a few at home. Prefer Spurs over Dortmund but injuries could be a real problem. Dortmund are now in a title fight domestically so that doesn't hurt, but Spurs kinda are as well and not sure where the offense comes from. They need to win 1-0, 2-0 type matches to advance and they've done well this year with last minute goals, just not enough for the +115 w/o Harry in there for me. Juve/Atletico should be a great watch.
 
First, knew I shoulda waited. PSG to advance are now -170. I will add, wanted in below -200 and got it but writing was on the wall it would or could go down. I'll hold out but will be checking periodically and double up when it's time to strike.

As such, going to try to do this game by game and tbh won't have a ton to talk about on these first legs(sans one), much more fun to figure out what needs to happen in the return matches the first couple weeks of March. First match to look at is PSG at Old Trafford and you likely have figured out that I like the Parisians but have no need to play them yet. The Neymar injury has the value on this entire thing so blown out of whack, I really think draw would be a great result for Man United. Do I think they get it? Maybe...they'll try to do everything they can to keep PSG off the away board but PSG should get at least one if not more. Let's be real, United have played paperweights since the managerial change. PSG have advantages basically everywhere. I'll leave it at that since I'm not playing anything on it yet, but I'm sure it's obvious.
 
Roma-here's a team 6th in the table in Serie A but only a point out of 4th. But let's be real, that is the primary focus at this point in the season, to finish top 4 above anything else. They haven't lost at home in any competition since 11/27 to Real Madrid in CL, and if you wanna toss that because it's RM, you go back to 10/20 in a league match. Not really sure what happened in the 1-7 loss to Fiorentina in Copa but they possessed 57%. Only real loss of note for me recently is to Juve in league at Turin. No sweat.

Porto on the other hand, just keep doing what they do, off a couple draws in league on the road but whatever. Roma v Porto last 4 have lost 2, drawn 2. Going at this as I do not think Roma score. 0-0 or 0-1 seems about right to me.

2/12

Porto +.5 -122 3*
Roma/Porto draw +220 1.5*
Roma/Porto u2.5 -113 6*
 
Back for Wednesday's games tomorrow, got some soul searching going on. Which means I'm tired.
 
Eh one Wednesday game, not a ton to write about. Home game in Amsterdam and Real Madrid, though better lately are still plenty leaky against quality teams. Ajax love to score at home. Obv I'm on them to advance which may be a long shot against the three time defenders but it's not out the realm this season. Pretty sure Ajax know they need to put up a number and hold on for dear life in Madrid, I simply can't wait for this match (in Spanish)

Ajax/Real Madrid o3 -118 8*
1h Ajax/Real Madrid o1.25 -107 4*
Ajax +.5 -102 3*
Ajax ML +275
 
Also I'm not going to post a -850 but anyone who likes a 12-13% ROI over a 3 wk period and don't mind the high number, I see virtually no way Lyon advance past Barca. Like it more than the -2000 on City for sure. It should be a formality, you just have to be comfortable with the concept of the fluke at those odds. But over 180 minutes I have a feeling it's smooth sailing on that wager for at least 140 of em.
 
KJ said:
Eh one Wednesday game, not a ton to write about. Home game in Amsterdam and Real Madrid, though better lately are still plenty leaky against quality teams. Ajax love to score at home. Obv I'm on them to advance which may be a long shot against the three time defenders but it's not out the realm this season. Pretty sure Ajax know they need to put up a number and hold on for dear life in Madrid, I simply can't wait for this match (in Spanish)

Ajax/Real Madrid o3 -118 8*
1h Ajax/Real Madrid o1.25 -107 4*
Ajax +.5 -102 3*
Ajax ML +275
Click to expand...
Oh yeah!
 
KJ said:
First, knew I shoulda waited. PSG to advance are now -170. I will add, wanted in below -200 and got it but writing was on the wall it would or could go down. I'll hold out but will be checking periodically and double up when it's time to strike.

As such, going to try to do this game by game and tbh won't have a ton to talk about on these first legs(sans one), much more fun to figure out what needs to happen in the return matches the first couple weeks of March. First match to look at is PSG at Old Trafford and you likely have figured out that I like the Parisians but have no need to play them yet. The Neymar injury has the value on this entire thing so blown out of whack, I really think draw would be a great result for Man United. Do I think they get it? Maybe...they'll try to do everything they can to keep PSG off the away board but PSG should get at least one if not more. Let's be real, United have played paperweights since the managerial change. PSG have advantages basically everywhere. I'll leave it at that since I'm not playing anything on it yet, but I'm sure it's obvious.
Click to expand...
United won at Tottenham and arsenal, I don’t think I’d say they’ve played paperweights especially in comparison to PSG’s French league competition
 
survive&advance said:
United won at Tottenham and arsenal, I don’t think I’d say they’ve played paperweights especially in comparison to PSG’s French league competition
Click to expand...
There's a point to this...it wasn't meant to be so specific (although I don't put nearly the weight into an FA Cup victory than PL matches). The love for United has gone off the deep end since Ole Gunnar took over and the list of victories, imo, is much more impressive in number than quality. Win at Wembley was big of course, but this is more about perception than anything for me. United couldn't be any higher, and with the Neymar injury PSG suddenly get to be the team playing with the chip on their shoulder? Um okay, that certainly isn't what I want if I'm backing United at this point.

Fwiw I pretty much expected to take all the Premier League teams to win their matchups when the draw was made. But the value has sunk so low on United that PSG is a virtual must play for me. Clearly the complexion of the tie has been turned upside down. Now I get PSG getting that underdog mentality which is asinine.

Hope that makes sense.
 
KJ said:
There's a point to this...it wasn't meant to be so specific (although I don't put nearly the weight into an FA Cup victory than PL matches). The love for United has gone off the deep end since Ole Gunnar took over and the list of victories, imo, is much more impressive in number than quality. Win at Wembley was big of course, but this is more about perception than anything for me. United couldn't be any higher, and with the Neymar injury PSG suddenly get to be the team playing with the chip on their shoulder? Um okay, that certainly isn't what I want if I'm backing United at this point.

Fwiw I pretty much expected to take all the Premier League teams to win their matchups when the draw was made. But the value has sunk so low on United that PSG is a virtual must play for me. Clearly the complexion of the tie has been turned upside down. Now I get PSG getting that underdog mentality which is asinine.

Hope that makes sense.
Click to expand...
Fair enough reasoning to me. However I do think not having cavani/muenier will be impactful here
 
Good luck to you KJ. Few weeks ago, I would have said PSG over United is a sure bet. Now, not so sure, no Neymar, Verrati, Cavani and Meunier. That's a lot of guys missing. PSG's form not exactly great as it was - needing ET to advance in cup game, losing to Lyon.....United on the other hand have the player in the best form in Europe right now in Pogba and really been high flying side. I tend to think United +money would be the right side, but I 'm a United fan.
Also, not sure I'd be backing Ajax. Difference between leagues is humongous and REal another team in fantastic form right now

Of course I'm absolutely dreadful in CL play so you probably have yourself a fistful of winners here :cheers3:
 
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I'm pretty upset that RM are playing so well right now, thought Ajax had a very legitimate shot in December. Still playing it but not nearly as much as I would have.

As for the match at OT tomorrow, with all the injuries I'm gonna guess PSG would be elated with 1-1 typed, they certainly need the away goal. Probably need to lay up a bit on these first matches (although that doesn't apply to the total in Ajax/RM, should see plenty of action there)
 
CBB forum got me feeling like I'm in the twilight zone, time to settle down and get to real footy today.

Looks like Roma and United are getting most of the tickets which isn't surprising...was going to hold off on adding to PSG but now at -150 to advance, I just need them to get out of today with a 1-1 draw or better to be in good shape. They will clearly have Meunier back in 3 weeks and I assume Cavani as well, guess it'll be a bunch of defend and counter today. Of course if United win, I could get a better number going forward, but I'll take a bit more at -150.

PSG to advance -150 3*
PSG +.25 -108 3*
 
Spurs/Dortmund Wednesday...wow, sounds likely no Kane, Alli, Davies, Rose for Spurs and for Dortmund no Reus or Alacer so goal scoring will be on the shoulders of Son and Goetze? Hm. Not good. Sounds something like a Spurs 1-0 type win but they will be week in the back.

Spurs/Dortmund u2.5 +108 4*
 
Lingard off, Alexis on, already 5 yellows and Young gotta be on thin ice. Hard to not see at least one sent off here. If it's United, they will pack it in to avoid giving up the away goal I'd guess but still think PSG can catch em on the counter. Paris have looked good on the ball last 20 minutes. Worth stab imo.

2h PSG pk -108 1.5*
2h PSG ML +215
 
Gotta love it when literally nothing happens in the first half, not even a f'n card and it all comes crashing down in 10 minutes. Somehow the silver lining is that Porto got the away goal so that future is still plenty alive but that was a tough stretch.

At least PSG got me feeling alright, looked away and completely missed Pogba getting booked at the end there. Pretty much should seal it up for PSG, guessing it was questionable at best the way they were talking.
 
KJ said:
Gotta love it when literally nothing happens in the first half, not even a f'n card and it all comes crashing down in 10 minutes. Somehow the silver lining is that Porto got the away goal so that future is still plenty alive but that was a tough stretch.

At least PSG got me feeling alright, looked away and completely missed Pogba getting booked at the end there. Pretty much should seal it up for PSG, guessing it was questionable at best the way they were talking.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that was BRUTAL..I saw 0-0 halfway through 2nd and thought it was good.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yeah, that was BRUTAL..I saw 0-0 halfway through 2nd and thought it was good.
Click to expand...
I was already doing the Larry Csonka champaign toast and ready to light the cigar, just hoping the draw would come in for the sweep then bam! Oh there was some sweepin' alright. Not like the 1h featured a ton of chances and it was just a matter of time. Nothing ACTUALLY happened for the first 45 minutes, and even the next 25 there was basically nothing. Then it was a 10 minute fiesta.
 
Trying to get ahead of the game here between this and CBB it's trying to occupy more brain space than I have brain

Saw more of Lyon than I wanted to in groups as they took the match at the Etihad and drew at home against City so they're likely riding high emotionally in this competition and there's no doubt they drew the short straw here against Barca. They did just beat PSG at home (meaningless for PSG) and Barca are only 5-3-2 in their last 10 matches and off 3 straight draws, but keeping it in perspective, one of those draws was leg 1 against Real in Copa del Rey in which Messi was out. Barca are up 6 pts on RM in the league so very possibly it can just be brushed off as a loss of focus, would say they're far from not being in form. Home draw to Valencia sucks, home draw to RM in Copa is what it is, road draw at Bilbao, no big deal. They get the stage here. And I fully expect them to deliver.

Will be one sided possession of course and I'm sure Lyon will try to stay deep but they're sneaky with the quick counters as well...not like most teams, they aren't relying on that one forward to do the heavy lifting, they score evenly from all over the pitch. Dembele, Traore, Fekir, Memphis, Aouar...all are scorers and if they get on the counter Barca could be tested. Briefly.

But let's be honest, it's hard to see Lyon hold down a team of stars when the lights shine bright. This might be close for a bit, and if Lyon can get out of this one and go to Barcelona without a deficit, I'll tip my cap. Think at the very least Barca score a couple (likely more) so betting it this way for now.

Other match, plain and simple, Liverpool at this number at home against a usual powerhouse who are down...and a worse team than Liverpool right now. Not much more to say. Not jacking around with anything other than the ML in this one unless some prop catches my attention. Think Pool could well get the clean sheet and good luck keeping them off the scoreboard at Anfield. Or anywhere.

2/19

Barcelona ML -147 5*
Barcelona -.75 -116 2*
Lyon/Barcelona o3.25 +107 3*
Liverpool ML -102 10*
 
Got the team totals where I want them

Ajax tt o1.5 +140 2.5*
Real Madrid tt o1.5 -155 2.5*
Spurs pk -180 2*
Ajax/Real Madrid o4.5 cards -130

Hate the ref in Tottenham game, his forehead has a twitter account I think
 
Yes I'm pissed about the disallowed goal. Might well be on tilt. This game has goals written all over it. Or so I hope. Sucks how many chances Ajax had and didn't put it on goal. Gotta give it a chance lads.

2h Ajax/Real Madrid o1.75 -115 10*
 
KJ said:
Yes I'm pissed about the disallowed goal. Might well be on tilt. This game has goals written all over it. Or so I hope. Sucks how many chances Ajax had and didn't put it on goal. Gotta give it a chance lads.

2h Ajax/Real Madrid o1.75 -115 10*
Click to expand...
Good work, took forever but game got going finally.
 
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Three paragraph writeup and gonzo cause I accidentally backspaced somewher and couldn't undo. Not doing it again, can ask and I'll try to cliffs notes it. Fuck there was a lot in there.

2/20

Manchester City -1.75 -101 5*
Schalke/Man City o3 -116 2.5*
 
Long story short, Schalke bad, hanging on for dear life in league against bottom dwellers, lucky to make it through groups stage because it was Porto, Schalke then Gala and Lokomotiv Moscow (of which all four of those games Schalke kept a clean sheet. How bad is that?)

Last clean sheet for Schalke outside those two CL patsies was yesterday 2/16 against #13 in league Freiburg. Prior to that? 10/28/18 against Leipzig. They give it up against teams with a pulse. Welcome City, who are fairly well rested after the FA Cup game against a 4th league opponent this weekend.

Team total will be a play, and I also am not so concerned about the handicap as I have a hard time believing the team most desirable in the draw can keep City within a couple goals. Will say there's a concern that this team tries to get too cute and pass too much in the box, but that's far less a concern than scoring 3 even if Schalke get one on counter.

Their entire season has been awful, outside of a home win against Wolfsburg, their only victories in the league have been against teams currently in the 11th position or worse in an 18 team league. They're 14th! They have much bigger fish to fry than to think they'll advance here, this thing should be put to bed so that the return match is nothing but a ceremony.

Schalke is who every #1 wanted, well here it is. City can only do stupid things to themselves here. That's always in the back of my mind.
 
With a future on Juve to win it all this isn't a desirable matchup. Wouldn't hurt my feelings to see it go 1-1 but there is enough offensive talent all over to take the over here, clearly both defenses are likely the best left. At 2, I bite. If Atletico get up 1-0 later in the match it will be a bus parkin' but that guy for Juve will still be roaming.

Atletico Madrid/Juventus o2 -110 3*
 
Time to do it, got down to -122 yesterday and apparently that was the floor. Up today a bit, I expect it won't stop. Bump this damn thing. This is the R16 matchup I just love the most...thx to City's back four for making Lyon look a bunch better than they are.

Barcelona ML -130 13*
 
Liverpool tt o1.5 -110 2.5*

Pay to see Pool score less than a couple at Anfield against this version of BM? You bet...and add to this ridiculous ML

Liverpool ML +126 5*
 
Man City tt o2 -145 2.5*
Atletico Madrid/Juventus draw +184 3*

Draw wager is based on the German ref who will let them play rugby. It's somewhat a buyoff of the over but not really, 1-1 would be sublime as I've got the Juve future. Hard to see this one have much activity, defenders will have free reign. Not even sure it's a good watch, like yesterday. Got my translator app going for the City match, perfect opp to see how it works.
 
Good news is other than the Ajax bet the futures are still fighting. Bad news is Juve play Atletico down 2. Get ready.

Going to try to knock out Tuesday tonight and Wednesday tomorrow night. I dare say my heart is in Europa for wagering!
 
20425 Ajax +1 -122 3*
20428 Dortmund ML -108 4*
20428 Dortmund/Spurs o3 -107 2*

RM and Ajax could be a snoozer so 0-0 or 1-1 wouldn't surprise me. Dortmund on the other hand should let er fly, and I expect Tottenham to defend like their lives depend on it. If Dortmund go up 2-0 this gets boner worthy
 
The more I've thought about it, which can be a problem undoubtedly, but how are there not goals in this Dortmund/Spurs match? Dortmund need 3 at least and not sure Spurs know how to not press. I'm not calling it over because an early Dortmund goal will make things very interesting, but any Spurs goal means it's pretty much over. I'm sold, therefore, on over more than the side. Dutch ref too, they like goals...

Dortmund/Spurs o3 -103 6*
1h Dortmund/Spurs o1.25 +100 5*
 
-After a 2-1 first leg success in Amsterdam, Real Madrid are closing in on a ninth straight Champions League (CL) quarter final. The omens are good for Madrid as they have won their last five home matches against Dutch opposition, although the last side to beat them at the Santiago Bernabéu was Ajax in 1995.

-Despite this, the pressure is on manager Santiago Solari as his side have lost their previous three home games across all competitions for the first time under his stewardship. They conceded six goals in those three matches, with five of those goals coming in the second half.

-Ajax put in a valiant display in the first leg and were unlucky to lose, yet they now remain without a win in their last seven CL knockout fixtures (D2, L5). However, since that defeat to Madrid, the visitors have won their previous three matches across all competitions, conceding just one goal and scoring an impressive 13.

-Ajax have won just four of their previous 13 matches against Madrid (W4, D1, L8), losing all of the previous seven H2H matches, and scoring one goal or less.

The above is copy/pasted from Flashscore but show a real propensity for Ajax to score a couple other than the last trend. Thing is Madrid's defense is the worst I've ever seen it and Sergio Ramos is out today for yellow cards, so Ajax should see plenty of chances. One negative is a German ref and that usually means anything goes and cards are light, so RM should be wise and ugly this up. I still think this has value, however the 2h will be wagered much more aggressively considering the above. Watching several minutes of this match will help to confirm that.

Ajax tt o1 -145 2.5*
 
Going to play these, it's theoretically possible one of them breaks through

Dortmund to advance +800 .5* (3/5)
Ajax to advance +600 .5* (3/5)
 
2h Dortmund/Spurs o1.5 -110 4*

Just anticipating desperation and chaos this half
 
Not really much needed to get involved with PSG match with the futures, same with Porto side as the ML is needed to advance and it's the same price as that future. Only thing I like is under there, Porto just don't give up goals often at home...but then again unders with Roma aren't much fun. See the match 3 weeks ago where 0-0 turned into 2-1 in less than ten minutes. Just not sure they get through for much damage away here, and Porto do advance with 1-0 so there's that. Playing the home goals just in case, really have a hard time seeing PSG not score 1-2, hopefully if Porto go nuts at least that will cash.

Porto/Roma u2.75 +114 3*
Roma tt u1 +105
Home goals -1.5 -140 2*
 
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