KJ Champions League/Europa Qualifiers 8/21-8/30

[KJ]

+27.465 CL thru 8/29
+18.400 Europa thru 8/30
-.500 UEFA Super Cup
+45.365 total thru 8/30

Finally trimming the fat and group draws next week...oh yeah and actual TV! TNT has Benfica/PAOK Tuesday and Ajax/Dynamo Kyiv Wednesday, and for those lucky enough to have Univision Deportes like me they have BATE/PSV Tuesday as well without the shitty announcing...well that I can understand anyway. No Europa on the tele, but I'll take it. The draw for CL groups on 8/30 will be the most important day of the season for some, looking forward to 3am or whatever time that is.

Anyone who has prices on advancing to groups I'd love to see them. I do not, initial look this might be awfully chalky in the CL matchups. Enough quality teams now that over leans may warrant 1h plays too...

8/21 Champions League

20401 Benfica ML -238 4*
20401 Benfica -1.25 +102 2*
20405 PSV -.25 -127 4*
20405 PSV ML +112 2.5*
20404 BATE/PSV o2.25 -110 1.5*
20407 Red Star +.5 +102 2.5*
20407 Red Star/RB Salzburg u2.25 -118 2*
20409 Red Star/RB Salzburg draw +210

8/22 Champions League

20410 Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o2.5 +100 5*
20410 Ajax ML -164 3*
20410 1h Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o1 +100 2.5*
20410 Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o2.5 -103 2*
20410 1h Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o1 -102 2*
20414 AEK Athens -.25 -113 2.5*
20417 Dinamo Zagreb +.75 -106 3.5*
20416 Young Boys/Dinamo Zagreb o2.75 +102 2*
20416 1h Young Boys/Dinamo Zagreb o1 -128 2*
20417 Dinamo Zagreb ML +350

8/23 Europa

20501 Torpedo/Ludogorets o2.25 -109 2*
20504 Zenit/Molde o2.75 -118 4*
20504 Zenit -1.25 -124 2*
20508 Qarabag pk -117 2*
20508 Qarabag ML +152
20512 APOEL/Astana draw +225
20514 AEK Larnaca +.25 -102 3*
20514 AEK Larnaca ML +195
20516 Sevilla -1.25 -111 3*
20521 Suduva/Celtic draw +280
20524 Sarpsborg/Maccabi Tel Aviv draw +215
20526 Midtjylland +.25 +116 3*
20527 Malmo/Midtjylland draw +230
20528 Dudelange/Cluj u2.25 -123 2*
20531 Olympija Ljubljana ML +114 1.5*
20534 Olympiakos/Burnley u2.25 -133 4*
20537 Atalanta ML -213 4*
20537 Atalanta -1.25 +119 2*
20543 Genk ML -132 5*
20543 Genk -.75 +104 2.5*
20547 FCSB +.5 -122 3*
20547 FCSB ML +215
20550 Besiktas ML +102 2*
20555 Rosenborg -1.25 -117 2*
20558 Rangers ML -139 3*
20562 Bordeaux +.25 -112 2*
20563 Gent/Bordeaux draw +225

8/28 Champions League

20410 Dinamo Zagreb -.25 +105 3*
20410 Dinamo Zagreb ML +140 1.5*
20410 1h Dinamo Zagreb pk -150 3*
20410 1h Dinamo Zagreb ML +167
20413 AEK Athens ML -179 3*
20413 AEK Athens -1 +102
20416 Dynamo Kiev/Ajax o2.75 -110 5*
20416 1h Dynamo Kiev/Ajax o1 -125 2.5*

8/29 Champions League

20402 Benfica -.25 +107 5*
20402 Benfica ML +129 2.5*
20402 1h Benfica pk -150 3*
20402 1h Benfica ML +182 .5*
20404 PSV/BATE o2.75 +100 5*
20404 1h PSV/BATE o1.25 +117 2*
20404 PSV/BATE o3 -118 9*
20404 1h PSV/BATE o1.25 -108 5*
20407 RB Salzburg/Red Star u2.25 +102 3.5*

8/30 Europa

20510 Larnaca ML -175 2*
20510 Larnaca -1 -109
20513 RB Leipzig -1.75 -132 5*
20513 RB Leipzig/Zorya Lugansk o3 -117 3*
20517 Atalanta ML -135 8*
20520 Torpedo +1.75 -111
20522 Qarabag ML -145 2.5*
20525 Cluj -1.5 -114 2*
20525 Cluj/Dudelange o2.5 -125
20528 Molde/Zenit o2.75 -119 4*
20531 Apollon/Basel o2.75 -114 2.5*
20537 Midtjylland -.25 -118 3*
20537 Midtjylland ML +109
20540 Besiktas ML -175 2*
20543 Shkendija/Rosenborg u2.75 -112 2*
20547 Genk -.25 +100 8*
20547 Genk ML +121 3*
20549 FCSB ML -110 4*
20552 Burnley/Olympiakos u2.25 +105 6*
20555 Bordeaux/Gent u2.25 -110 3*
20558 Celtic -2.25 +108 1.5*
20561 Sevilla -2.25 -118 2*

 

[KJ]

20401 Benfica ML -238 4*
20401 Benfica -1.25 +102 2*

Will add Benfica team total when available, Benfica have qualified 9 straight years for groups while PAOK haven't ever made it. Kinda lean over but can easily see Benfica keeping it clean at home, not thinking they only win 1-0 here.

 

[KJ]

20405 PSV -.25 -127 4*
20405 PSV ML +112 2.5*
20404 BATE/PSV o2.25 -110 1.5*

Another where PSV team total is probably the best, just two different classes here. If it ends 1-1, well there's protection on the handicap at least and will go for it in Holland next week where they should throttle BATE. BATE don't tend to concede much at home but they also don't see the talent that PSV possess either.

 

[KJ]

20407 Red Star +.5 +102 2.5*
20407 Red Star/RB Salzburg u2.25 -118 2*
20409 Red Star/RB Salzburg draw +210

Not going to overthink this, neither has been to groups, guessing both play conservative...Salzburg probably would be more than happy with 1-1 draw, if Red Star score first, they'll protect the 1-0 lead

 

[KJ]

20410 Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o2.5 +100 5*
20410 Ajax ML -164 3*

Over 2.5 at even money with Dutch team hosting is something I'll do every time and doubt they want to go to Ukraine needing a result to advance

 

[KJ]

20414 AEK Athens -.25 -113 2.5*

Nothing crazy here, AEK such the better team but Hungary not easy to score goals in, I'll hope for 1-0, 2-0 type game from AEK. Another where if the result isn't positive I'll try to get it back next week. Under makes sense but heavy juice to under 2....not my favorite. Maybe Vidi tt under if it's reasonable but will likely be high juice at 1 or smallish plus money at .5. Not sure on that.

 

[KJ]

20417 Dinamo Zagreb +.75 -106 3.5*
20416 Young Boys/Dinamo Zagreb o2.75 +102 2*
20416 1h Young Boys/Dinamo Zagreb o1 -128 2*
20417 Dinamo Zagreb ML +350

I fully expect Zagreb to score in the 1h, the rest just kinda starts there. Needed to find a dog, not really sure given history why it's so high but I'll play along.

 

[KJ]

20410 1h Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o1 +100 2.5*

 

[B.A.R.]

Pause overnight, regroup... recharge the batteries..coffee break. Resume.

 

[KJ]

Pause overnight, regroup... recharge the batteries..coffee break. Resume.

Prolly not gonna be much in the way of thoughts on Europa unless asked, still too many teams left and good chance the winner of the competition is in CL at the moment anyway. Gets confusing.

Seriously Atletico won Europa because they finished 3rd in their CL group. They are the #3 ranked club in the world. Makes sense.

 

[KJ]

And I'm up for another couple hours Reno, thought you were wasting away again in the U.P. or something

 

[KJ]

8/22 Europa

20501 Torpedo/Ludogorets o2.25 -109 2*
20504 Zenit/Molde o2.75 -118 4*
20504 Zenit -1.25 -124 2*
20508 Qarabag pk -117 2*
20508 Qarabag ML +152
20512 APOEL/Astana draw +225
20514 AEK Larnaca +.25 -102 3*
20514 AEK Larnaca ML +195
20516 Sevilla -1.25 -111 3*
20521 Suduva/Celtic draw +280
20524 Sarpsborg/Maccabi Tel Aviv draw +215
20526 Midtjylland +.25 +116 3*
20527 Malmo/Midtjylland draw +230
20528 Dudelange/Cluj u2.25 -123 2*
20531 Olympija Ljubljana ML +114 1.5*
20534 Olympiakos/Burnley u2.25 -133 4*
20537 Atalanta ML -213 4*
20537 Atalanta -1.25 +119 2*
20543 Genk ML -132 5*
20543 Genk -.75 +104 2.5*
20547 FCSB +.5 -122 3*
20547 FCSB ML +215
20550 Besiktas ML +102 2*
20555 Rosenborg -1.25 -117 2*
20558 Rangers ML -139 3*
20562 Bordeaux +.25 -112 2*
20563 Gent/Bordeaux draw +225

 

[KJ]

Adding to today

20410 Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o2.5 -103 2*
20410 1h Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o1 -102 2*

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck bubs

 

[KJ]

8/28 Champions League

20402 Benfica -.25 +107 5*
20402 Benfica ML +129 2.5*

Just gonna go after Benfica after yesterday's lackluster result, so many wasted opportunities and I'll just hope they go in this time. Would be very surprised (shocked even) if Benfica don't advance and PAOK with the away goal yesterday means the superior team should create chances while PAOK likely sit back to start out. Lean under but if Benfica score first it will certainly open up.

20404 PSV/BATE o2.75 +100 5*

Another over no brainer for me in Holland at even money. PSV get 3 on the road, they might get the over themselves at home. Not sure they have protecting a one goal lead in them.

20407 RB Salzburg/Red Star u2.25 +102 3.5*

Similar to yesterday, both playing for their first group stage, hard to see either team do anything crazy to give counter ops...even if Salzburg do score, Red Star likely would still play protective knowing that one goal could still put them through.

 

[B.A.R.]

Adding to today

20410 Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o2.5 -103 2*
20410 1h Ajax/Dynamo Kiev o1 -102 2*

Thanks, again.

 

[Shumakov]

St. Petersburg love

 

[KJ]

8/28 Champions League

20410 Dinamo Zagreb -.25 +105 3*
20410 Dinamo Zagreb ML +140 1.5*
20413 AEK Athens ML -179 3*
20413 AEK Athens -1 +102
20416 Dynamo Kiev/Ajax o2.75 -110 5*
20416 1h Dynamo Kiev/Ajax o1 -125 2.5*

 

[KJ]

8/29

20404 1h PSV/BATE o1.25 +117 2*

 

[chopz33]

BOL KJ

 

[B.A.R.]

Get em

 

[KJ]

Real quick on Kiev/Ajax, no doubt going to Ukraine isn't the best recipe for scoring goals but I'm not so concerned about that with the Dutch here. Quite simply first thing I look to in Dutch matches is over and obv Ajax and PSV will do their share of scoring most of the time. Ajax comes in, last 10 matches only time they didn't score were a couple friendlies at home, not even worth looking into. Throw in that Kiev have to chase the 3-1 deficit, the only real concern is Kiev get up 2-0 and park it, they can't sit back and a couple Ajax goals certainly shouldn't be out of the question. So far in CL comps this season Ajax matches have seen 2, 4, 4, 3, 4 in goals scored with Ajax getting at least 2 in each themselves.

 

[guaranteeed]

Gl today mate

 

[B.A.R.]

Real quick on Kiev/Ajax, no doubt going to Ukraine isn't the best recipe for scoring goals but I'm not so concerned about that with the Dutch here. Quite simply first thing I look to in Dutch matches is over and obv Ajax and PSV will do their share of scoring most of the time. Ajax comes in, last 10 matches only time they didn't score were a couple friendlies at home, not even worth looking into. Throw in that Kiev have to chase the 3-1 deficit, the only real concern is Kiev get up 2-0 and park it, they can't sit back and a couple Ajax goals certainly shouldn't be out of the question. So far in CL comps this season Ajax matches have seen 2, 4, 4, 3, 4 in goals scored with Ajax getting at least 2 in each themselves.

Thatta boy.

 

[KJ]

Lads :cheers3:

Going to add the 1h in Croatia, just can't see YB playing forward and with the away goal Zagreb doesn't really have to play aggressive, just makes sense that if there is a goal in the 1h, it will come from the home team. Pretty confident they won't be behind at half at least, hope not overly. Just can't see YB pressing issues early unless a blunder from Zagreb.

20410 1h Dinamo Zagreb pk -150 3*
20410 1h Dinamo Zagreb ML +167

 

[KJ]

30 shots for Ajax, zero goals....worse is watching it for a couple hours. And I'll likely be on overs next match in groups as a one off. That finishing was incredible, well the ing was, not the finish but moving on and not like I'm not going in for more now on PSV. Late to it today but still good with it, limits were small til this morning. At least this one is televised in Spanish for me so I'll only hear the good stuff.

20404 PSV/BATE o3 -118 9*
20404 1h PSV/BATE o1.25 -108 5*

And as much as I'd like to see PAOK beat Benfica just to see Pool in pod 3 for the draw tomorrow, I just cant see it happening. Not sure PAOK score here, so a 1h on pk sounds safe. Benfica been to last 9 group stages, PAOK never....lots of history in Portuguese favor, and they need score at least one.

20402 1h Benfica pk -150 3*
20402 1h Benfica ML +182 .5*

 

[Shumakov]

Vasco da Gama was a navigator,
he is a Portuguese

Napoleon the Frenchman,
plunge into history

 

[KJ]

Thursday up in the air, nice to see the big ones at least hold their own in CL. Got a chunk.

Not real motivated for Europa

10am draw Pacific for CL groups is where I care

 

[B.A.R.]

Great work on Wednesday.

 

[KJ]

Vasco da Gama was a navigator,
he is a Portuguese

Napoleon the Frenchman,
plunge into history

This may be my favorite post in the history of life

 

[KJ]

Any questions, I'll likely have answers for the bigger plays if I have time but busy morning work and 10am my time focus will be on FS1 CL groups draw so won't care much. This is capping motivation imo which can be tricky, but Ima try and will try to do a couple games at a time give/take. Big ones early and opinions to be quick:

RB Leipzig didn't get an away goal and at 0-0 in the first leg, they gotta score here. A lot. They aren't CL, will face a tough challenge to be CL next year in the league for sure, and may well be the best team in the comp at this point (before the CL group drops) so I have to think this is quite a statement game. Without that away goal, they will need to outscore the Ukrainians and I think this is the perfect platform. RB Salzburg completely blew their chance at CL groups yesterday, so Red Bull group is now 100% focused on Europa...Salzburg will fall in to the next round, but no CL for Red Bull, time for ze Germans to put the pedal to the medal. They have the chops. They can win this competition (of course depends who falls in from CL) and I think this is the perfect spot for Leipzig to show it.

Atalanta, just as good as it is gonna get for them and playing well, came back from a couple goals down on the weekend in league to draw and with the big clubs in Italy ramping it up, as the whole league is, this has to be Atalanta's time to shine in Europe. Hoping last week was an aberration, and at least they didn't give up the away goal.

8/30 Europa

20510 Larnaca ML -175 2*
20510 Larnaca -1 -109
20513 RB Leipzig -1.75 -132 5*
20513 RB Leipzig/Zorya Lugansk o3 -117 3*
20517 Atalanta ML -135 8*

 

[KJ]

20520 Torpedo +1.75 -111
20522 Qarabag ML -145 2.5*
20525 Cluj -1.5 -114 2*
20525 Cluj/Dudelange o2.5 -125
20528 Molde/Zenit o2.75 -119 4*
20531 Apollon/Basel o2.75 -114 2.5*
20537 Midtjylland -.25 -118 3*
20537 Midtjylland ML +109

 

[Shumakov]

This may be my favorite post in the history of life

even so,
russians always come for their money
Bismarck, Otto fon

 

[KJ]

20540 Besiktas ML -175 2*
20543 Shkendija/Rosenborg u2.75 -112 2*
20547 Genk -.25 +100 8*
20547 Genk ML +121 3*
20549 FCSB ML -110 4*
20552 Burnley/Olympiakos u2.25 +105 6*
20555 Bordeaux/Gent u2.25 -110 3*
20558 Celtic -2.25 +108 1.5*
20561 Sevilla -2.25 -118 2*

Love Genk if that hasn't been clear, prolly like Steaua more than I should, will play Burnley unders religiously until further notice, Celtic and Sevilla should score at least 3 on their own if they both show up...what happens other than that, dunno.

 

[Shumakov]

go Celtic

 

[chopz33]

so far so good KJ...thanks