KJ Champions League 11/27-28 MD5

KJ

KJ

Bump. Set. Shuma!
-32.755 CL thru 11/27
-5.50 Europa thru 11/8
-.500 UEFA Super Cup
-38.755 total thru 11/27 (will add futures in after group stage)

Futures

Juventus to win Champions League +700 2.5*
Liverpool to win Champions League +1000 .5*
Dortmund to qualify from group A -165 4*
Dortmund to win group A +325
Inter Milan to qualify from group B +130 2*
Liverpool to win group C +140 2*
Napoli to qualify from group C +600 .5*
Schalke to win group D +190
Ajax to qualify from group E +120 2.5*
Shakhtar Donetsk to qualify from group F +200 3*
Juventus to win group H -190 4*

11/27

20402 Ajax ML -145 4*
20402 Ajax -.75 -119 2*
20401 AEK/Ajax o2.5 -106 3*
20401 1h AEK/Ajax o1 -107 6*
20402 Ajax tt o1.5 -125 2.5*
20404 CSKA Moscow ML -132 4*
20407 Roma/Real Madrid u3.25 -123 2*
20410 Juventus -1.25 -109 3*
20410 Juventus tt o2 +105 2.5*
20410 Juventus/Valencia o2.75 +102
20410 2h Juventus -.75 -115 4*
20414 Young Boys +1.75 -119 3*
20415 Man United/Young Boys draw +460
20416 Bayern Munich/Benfica o3 -116 3*
20416 1h Bayern Munich/Benfica o1.25 -110 2*
20416 Bayern Munich tt o2.5 +115 2.5*
20420 Manchester City -1.5 +104 8*
20420 1h Manchester City ML -119 10*
20420 Manchester City tt o2.5 +105 2.5*
20420 2h Man City -.5 -105 10*
20422 Hoffenheim ML -135 6*
20422 Hoffenheim tt o2 -120 2.5*
20422 Hoffenheim/Shakhtar o3.24 -124 2.5*

11/28

20425 Atletico Madrid ML -526 5*
20425 Atletico Madrid -2 +106 2.5*
20425 Atletico Madrid tt o2.5 +110 1.5*
20428 Lokomotiv Moscow/Galatasaray u2.25 -118 4*
20429 Galatasaray ML +205 1.5*
20431 Porto ML -110 6*
20431 1h Porto ML +153
20434 1h Napoli ML -217 3*
20434 1h Napoli -1 -110 1.5*
20434 Napoli tt o2.5 -115 2.5*
20434 Napoli -2.25 +102 3.5*
20437 PSG/Liverpool o3.25 -110 10*
306422 PSG/Liverpool o3.25 +100 2.5*
306424 PSG/Liverpool o3.5 +125 2.5*
306344 PSG/Liverpool BTTS -220 5*
306402 PSG and o2.5 +160 2.5*
20437 1h PSG/Liverpool o1.25 -115 5*
20437 PSG tt o1.5 -145 2.5*
20438 Liverpool tt o1.5 +125 2.5*
20440 Tottenham/Inter Milan o3 +103 4*
20440 Tottenham tt o2 +125 2*
20440 1h Tottenham/Inter Milan o1.25 +117 1.5*
20443 PSV/Barcelona o3.25 +103 6*
306559 PSV/Barcelona BTTS -155 2.5*
20443 1h PSV/Barcelona o1.25 -120 3*
20443 2h PSV/Barcelona o1.75 -118 6*
20443 PSV tt o1 +135
20446 Dortmund ML -345 3*
 
Last edited:
Going to do this game by game, we're at that point where these teams are posturing for position to get thru. First game, reality is that Ajax can play for a draw and hope Bayern do no worse than draw to Benfica and they're through...that's a mild upset to punt Benfica. But I'm banking on them going for a victory, a sizable one. If they do and can beat Bayern at home next round, Ajax wins the group. That wouldn't be just a mild upset. And Bayern aren't exactly firing on all cylinders right now. Team total will be added.

11/27

20402 Ajax ML -145 4*
20402 Ajax -.75 -119 2*
20401 AEK/Ajax o2.5 -106 3*
20401 1h AEK/Ajax o1 -107 6*
 
Plzen are done, CSKA need to go win/win to have a chance. At home here, that shouldn't be an issue. Kinda funny they might want Roma to beat Madrid who's in shambles, that would let CSKA control their own destiny if they win. They should.

20404 CSKA Moscow ML -132 4*
 
Speaking of which, who else is a mess? Roma. This is a highly anticipated match with two very popular teams playing so poorly it's bound to be a letdown. I'll play along.

20407 Roma/Real Madrid u3.25 -123 2*
 
Valencia have a lot to play for, they really need the win to move on but bad news that Juve lost at home last CL match. Can't see that happening twice in a row. Juve need the win to stay 2 up on United who pretty much everyone assumes will beat Young Boys down and try to cut into goal differential. Juve tt will be played.

20410 Juventus -1.25 -109 3*
20410 Juventus/Valencia o2.75 +102
 
That said, United/Young Boys looks like a pile of shit waiting to happen. United are all over the place right now, still doubt Swiss can break them down but taking the + here and the draw.

20414 Young Boys +1.75 -119 3*
20415 Man United/Young Boys draw +460
 
Just a hunch on this one and maybe I go for more tomorrow, but Benfica are going to know what they need to do since Ajax play early. At this point they probably know they need to win anyway and on the road against a superior team (even if playing like shit) will likely open the game up. If Bayern score somewhat early, this could see several goals. Only way it doesn't go over imo is Benfica playing close to the vest and somehow taking a 1-0 lead around 60 mins. Then pack it in. I'll play against that. And team totals out now!

20416 Bayern Munich/Benfica o3 -116 3*
20416 1h Bayern Munich/Benfica o1.25 -110 2*
20416 Bayern Munich tt o2.5 +115 2.5*
 
Per earlier, team total adds

20402 Ajax tt o1.5 -125 2.5*
20410 Juventus tt o2 +105 2.5*
 
To know me, I'm not the biggest fan of betting on City...I do it but often it's on team totals or even against them and lose. This match against Lyon has been circled, French came in to the Etihad and punked em 2-1 suddenly making City fans everywhere question whether we belong with the elite. Of course since, they've reeled off 4 straight in CL and not been defeated in PL scoring at a remarkable clip. City clinch the group with a win, a nice rebound having seen them behind the 8 ball after match 1. Early goals lately have been gravy. Think this one could get nuts. Hope so.

20420 Manchester City -1.5 +104 8*
20420 1h Manchester City ML -119 10*
20420 Manchester City tt o2.5 +105 2.5*
 
Dumb line here, Hoffenheim should roll and scoring 2 goals would seem like the minimum to me.

20422 Hoffenheim ML -135 6*
20422 Hoffenheim tt o2 -120 2.5*
20422 Hoffenheim/Shakhtar o3.24 -124 2.5*
 
Good stuff, thanks for taking the time to do this with the analysis.

I am a gluten for punishment for a 1h over, double up if need be system.

LFG.
 
B.A.R. said:
Good stuff, thanks for taking the time to do this with the analysis.

I am a gluten for punishment for a 1h over, double up if need be system.

LFG.
Click to expand...
Gluten free homey, heard you'll feel like a million bucks
 
Intention was to try to do Wednesday tonight but eyes too tired. Will try to do it earlier tomorrow....it's not shocking that favorites come up at an alarming rate on matchday 5, that's when the cream rises and wins/advances. Just sucks to lay numbers all over but to me it's plenty warranted.
 
Take it with a grain of salt

20420 2h Man City -.5 -105 10*
20410 2h Juventus -.75 -115 4*
 
That pretty much sums up why I hate betting on my team, should be very happy with the draw, City advance and secure winning the group with a draw or better at home to Hoffenheim, yet it was a blood bath. Guess they won't be laying up in that final match at least.

Won't see me lay this often, verrrry rarely unless I feel it's undervalued. Plain and simple, highly, highly doubt Monaco can go into Madrid and get a point from Atletico. Atletico need to win and hope that Club Brugge can get a result at Dortmund later today to win the group, they're tied at the top but Dortmund gets the tiebreaker if both win out (they should). Reality is that Monaco are God awful this season and it would really benefit them to bow out of European competition altogether (ie 4th place in group) and focus on getting somewhere safe in the domestic league. Can also see Chopz thread, didn't realize they're going young as well but why not? At one of the toughest venues to get a result, I think Monaco get a thrashin' today. Even at -526, there is plenty of value imo.

20425 Atletico Madrid ML -526 5*
20425 Atletico Madrid -2 +106 2.5*
20425 Atletico Madrid tt o2.5 +110 1.5*

Other early game, if Galatasaray can get 3 points they have a legit chance at advancing, Schalke are playing like hot garbage right now and sitting ahead of Gala by 4 points. Think if Gala can score first here they will do everything in their power to preserve a 1-0 type victory, seems feasible.

20428 Lokomotiv Moscow/Galatasaray u2.25 -118 4*
20429 Galatasaray ML +205 1.5*
 
20431 Porto ML -110 6*

As mentioned above, Schalke haven't looked right and near relegation zone domestically, haven't played well on the road where Porto is pretty much dominant. Hate playing tt under .5 but at +140 that bet for Schalke may yet be worth a look. Add to it that a victory salts away the group for Porto, I'm down at this number. Of course I think it's light/off but still a must play for me.
 
20434 Napoli tt o2.5 -115 2.5*
20434 Napoli -2.25 +102 3.5*

Three players for 2 spots in this group, time for Napoli to use the home game against Red Star for goal differential, especially with the final game in Liverpool in a couple weeks. They not only need a win, they need a big win. This group is delivering, Red Star victory over Pool last out crunched this one up nicely (except for my Pool futures).
 
Obvious highlight match today, a couple things I'm not willing to bet against. Liverpool in current form, and PSG at Parc des Princes. It would behoove PSG to get to 3 goals and win this match in what looks to be a group where tiebreakers could decide it (first TB is points against tied team, and Pool won the first match 3-2, so adv Pool. 2nd TB is goals scored against tied team, adv Pool. 3rd TB would be goal differential against tied team). A draw here could bring all of that into play potentially. Not even going to go into scenarios if Napoli are involved.

Point being, let's see goals like the last one. I expect em.

20437 PSG/Liverpool o3.25 -110 10*
306422 PSG/Liverpool o3.25 +100 2.5* (yes, it let me do this as a separate prop)
306424 PSG/Liverpool o3.5 +125 2.5*
306344 PSG/Liverpool BTTS -220 5*
306402 PSG and o2.5 +160 2.5*
20437 1h PSG/Liverpool o1.25 -115 5*
20437 PSG tt o1.5 -145 2.5*
20438 Liverpool tt o1.5 +125 2.5*

But enough about that match. Gotta reserve some emotion for when it's 0-0 at HT
 
Clearly Spurs need to beat Inter and still need some help to advance. Assume Barca take care of PSV and Spurs victory gives them a path anyway. Barca would host Spurs with group already secured, so there's that. If everything broke right it could come down to TB and goals scored w/Inter. Inter have two in the bag, so there is certainly a reason for Spurs to try for at least 2 here. Think that's reasonable enough, and should lend to an open match.

20440 Tottenham/Inter Milan o3 +103 4*
20440 Tottenham tt o2 +125 2*
20440 1h Tottenham/Inter Milan o1.25 +117 1.5*
 
Dutch home over? Yes please. Especially against a team that can get it by themselves.

20443 PSV/Barcelona o3.25 +103 6*
306559 PSV/Barcelona BTTS -155 2.5*
20443 1h PSV/Barcelona o1.25 -120 3*
20443 PSV tt o1 +135
 
Not so much on the line w/Dortmund other than needing the W. I'll lay it.

20446 Dortmund ML -345 3*
 
im also laying the wood with Dortmund and most liklely betting both teams to score in the LFC/PSG game -217
 
Last adds til HT if any there

20431 1h Porto ML +153
20434 1h Napoli ML -217 3*
20434 1h Napoli -1 -110 1.5*
 
Pace and situation in this warrants a chase

20443 2h PSV/Barcelona o1.75 -118 6*
 
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