KJ ATP Finals

[KJ]

Didn't do a ton with tennis this year but not like I wasn't paying attention, and with nothing going on today and no work to speak of, at least we get Joker and Isner...with Fed already losing his first match this thing could get real interesting. Hate going against Isner indoors but this is his worst possible opponent.

11/12

Isner/Djokovic u22.5 +104 3*
Djokovic u13 -120 1.5*

 

[B.A.R.]

Interesting.

 

[KJ]

Nice start, Joker got the needed break in each set.

+4.62

11/13

Nishikori o13 -130 3*
Nishikori/Anderson o23.5 -126 2*
Nishikori ML -150 1.5*
Mektic & Peya ML +132 1.5*
Murray & Soares ML -150 2*

Will be on Fed in some fashion but not really sure how I want to play it yet. Normally I might like Thiem to pull the upset but not after they each lost their first matches, highly doubt we see anything but greatness from the GOAT

 

[KJ]

Thanks for showing up Kei wtf was that?

adding a unit

Murray & Soares ML -151

Will be some hefty wagering on Fed in a bit as I think there is no better spot nor will there be in this tournament on anyone. Number is gonna be huge but sometimes in this sport you just gotta lay it and hope for the best if you trust it.

 

[KJ]

This is not a normal thing but this spot is well undervalued at this price imo. Fed is up against the wall in the finals and I expect him to look like.....FED. I'm laying it and heavy.

Federer o Thiem -275 10*
Federer 1st set -215 5*
Federer u13 -120 2.5*

This will be either very exciting or very uncomfortable or both

 

[KJ]

+14.95

Thanks Roger, kinda figured he'd bring it today and didn't hurt that Thiem played like deer in headlights

Going to chew on some things for the first singles match, won't chew much on the doubles tomorrow. But this one I want to get in because I'm not sure who can or will break who so even in straights this could see 26 games. 3rd set is obv a winner. Gonna be some bombs regardless.

11/14

Isner/Cilic o25.5 -115 8*

 

[gunner4ever]

I'm just worried Cilic may already be in Davis Cup mode. Also let's say he lose the 1st set he might just give up knowing he has to win 2 straight sets to win the match + beat Djokovic to qualify. Add his awful WTF record (1W 9L) I'm not confident Cilic gives everything he has the rest of this week; I think he might just take it easy and cash the 2 remaining checks and go win the Davis Cup next week. I may be wrong but I just don't trust him at the O2.

But as you say could be 76 76 and still win the bet

 

[KJ]

I trust Cilic serve at least and not sure Isner can break him. Don't see him throwing in the towel, and even if he does his serve will still be sick.

 

[KJ]

Bryan & Sock -157 3*
Zverev +4.5 +100 4*
Zverev/Djokovic o21.5 -111 2.5*
Zverev ML +450

 

[gunner4ever]

I trust Cilic serve at least and not sure Isner can break him. Don't see him throwing in the towel, and even if he does his serve will still be sick.

Isner leads h2h 3-2 with only one match going over the total. Cilic' lone win at the WTF came in a meaningless 3rd match. If anything I like Isner to win. True he looked bad on Monday but he couldn't have had a worse opponent. I think Cilic should be only slightly favored here

 

[KJ]

Every win is worth 200k, there is no way any of these guys is throwing in the towel. I wouldn't be surprised to see Isner win and if it's 7-6, 6-4 so be it. I'm betting against that. No doubt at least one set is going to breakers

 

[gunner4ever]

Yeah I wish you good luck I won't be betting the total anyway, just offering counter thoughts if others are interested in betting this match.

So far it's not been that great for fans, 0 match out of 4 went 3 sets. Only one went over the total (Zverev Cilic 76 76). Nishikori managed to win 1 game today, I didn't watch but you can't tell me he gave absolulety everything.

And I didn't say he would throw the match Kyrgios style, just saying it's not the best situation for Cilic here with his awful record in this tournament and the Davis Cup next week

 

[KJ]

Dammit Sascha, thought he'd give Joker a match

Kubot & Melo -131 2*

 

[gunner4ever]

Well done with the over :cheers3:

 

[KJ]

+15.555

11/15

Thiem +2.5 -106 3*
Thiem +158 1.5*
Cabal & Farah -108 1.5*
Federer -230 4*
Federer -2.5 -111 2*

Another chance to back Fed, this time against Anderson who knocked him out of Wimbledon in their last match so should see another dose of laser focused Roger. He'll know by then what he has to do to advance after the Nishi/Thiem match. Taking this price now as he'll still be alive regardless of the outcome of the first match.

 

[Big daddy naught]

So hard to get this event. I mean how does kei dominate fed and then win 1 damn game vs Anderson, who he just beat easily last time out? Do like fed to get thru but like the over I think. No clue on kei vs thiem. Who is motivated there

 

[KJ]

200k for each match won on top of 200k for appearance. Should be plenty motivated.

 

[Big daddy naught]

I’d think, although this event has always tended to be more of an exhibition than anything. I got burned big by kei vs Anderson maybe I’m just salty lol

 

[Big daddy naught]

Playing rybakina/lisicki over in late night wta. Should hit if both serve well.

 

[KJ]

Yeah I looked at that one in particular but not going to get into the season. It should hit

 

[Big daddy naught]

Makes me feel better knowing you liked it too.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Good thing you didn’t take that over. 4-4 in 1st set and Rybakina completely fell apart to lose 6-4 and already down the break 2-0 in 2nd. Lol

 

[KJ]

Stars are aligning for Fed, win and he's through and now Anderson is already through. Hopefully this is just as undramatic as the other day but this spot can't be ignored imo.

Federer -250 8* (total 12* ML)
Federer -2.5 -121 4* (total 6* handicap)
Federer 1st set -203 2.5*

 

[KJ]

+42.925

Roger love is a special kinda love after this week. That first match loss to Kei was such a gift.

11/16

Isner/Zverev o25.5 -111 5*
Isner o12.5 -130 4*
Isner +2 +101 3*
Isner +194 2*
Cilic u9 -120 2*
Kubot & Melo -109 1.5*
Bryan & Sock -155 2.5*

 

[Big daddy naught]

Can isner advance w a win or is he already eliminated? 4-1 h2h for Sasha.

 

[KJ]

If Isner wins and Joker wins it goes to tiebreaker, think percentage of games won

 

[Big daddy naught]

Might play the over but hate having to hope Isner doesn’t crack since his return game is god awful

 

[B.A.R.]

en fuego!

 

[KJ]

+26.80

What a shit day for Isner to pack it in the 2nd set, so soft in the big events. UGA soft of course.

This clearly is shaping up for Fed/Joker, and going to bet accordingly. Not sure Fed on his best day can beat Joker on anything less than an off day right now. But he should take care of Zverev in short order. Be shocked if Anderson wins a set, if he loses that potential 1st set TB, could see a bagel in the 2nd.

11/17

Federer -237 5*
Federer 1st set -188 2.5*
Federer -3 -111 2*
Djokovic -4 -122 5*
Anderson/Djokovic u22 -110 2*
Murray & Soares +113 2.5*
Cabal & Farah +141

 

[Big daddy naught]

Once he lost the 1st set I was just praying that Isner could get to a 2nd set breaker to hit the over but he folded. Ugh.

Agree on Fed/joker final. They did just play a tight 3 setter that could have gone either way.

 

[KJ]

Not a big fan of taking -4 and under with Joker but the way he's playing right now it only makes sense to me

 

[Big daddy naught]

Yeah -4 is tough, Anderson will have to serve lights out to hang in there tho. I could see a break each set 6-3 7-5 or 6-4 6-4. Hopefully no breakers for you

 

[KJ]

My thinking is if Joker wins the first set it could be a quick 2nd

 

[KJ]

Let's face it KA is coming of a dream year, this is about when he reflects on how great it was for him while the two titans battle for the title

Think both Fed and Joker have 6 ATP Finals titles right?

 

[Big daddy naught]

There is the whole thing about Anderson dreaming of winning this atp finals thing, so he will be plenty motivated. I don’t see him
breaking Novak so he will have tremendous pressure on his serve games, knowing one bad one he’s is serious trouble in the set.

No idea on the number of finals titles for Fed and djoker, google?

 

[KJ]

Lol yeah I don't care enough and tired eyes, just thought I heard that

All the motivation in the world ain't beating Joker by KA, terrible matchup. He isn't breaking, I'll bet Joker does minimum once a set and probably more in the 2nd

 

[gunner4ever]

Think both Fed and Joker have 6 ATP Finals titles right?

Fed 6
Djoko 5
Nadal 0

Djoko should make it 6. Tempted to play Zverev + 4.5/5 initially with his good semifinal performance but they played each other twice in the last month and Djoko won the sets 64 61 62 61... Probably just going to watch the final, I don't think I want to bet against this Djokovic