KJ 2017 US Open

[KJ]

Think I mentioned at Wimbledon that I kinda wait until week 2 of majors to go more, let the herd thin out but will throw a few plays around this week. This Halep/Maria match is 2nd week worthy, already very high quality.

US Open: -53.21 thru 9/2

8/28

80507 Zverev -9 -116 3*

8/29

80501 Travaglia/Fognini u34.5 -115
80563 Pospisil +5.5 -110 2*
80563 Pospisil ML +251
80565 Del Potro -8 -101 3*
80575 Monfils/Chardy o34.5 -101 3*
80547 Lopez ML -153
80605 Lajovic/Nadal u27.5 -110 2*
80613 Berdych -5.5 -113 2*
80529 Dimitrov/Safranek o27.5 -115 2*
80562 Brown -112
80607 Seppi/RBA o34.5 -103
80583 Kyrgios/Millman o32.5 +107
82643 Bouchard -4 -124 2*
82602 Aga -5 +103 2*
82631 Wang +3.5 -112
82701 Zhang ML -150 3*
82628 McHale +4.5 -112 2*
82628 McHale ML +267
82607 Coco/Riske o20 -118
82617 Safarova ML -128 2*
82641 Keys/Mertens u20 -114 3*
82641 Keys -5 -108
80609 Tiafoe/Federer u29 -106 4*
80610 Federer -8 -114 2*

8/31

80583 Berdych/Dolgo o35.5 4*
80597 Dmitrov -6.5 -130 2*
80593 DelPo/Menendez o30 -113
80507 Lopez ML -114 3*
80527 Giraldo/Kolschreiber o32 -103
80588 Youshny/Roger u29 -110 3*
80547 Monfils/Young o36 -108 4*
80548 Young +6 -118 2*
80548 Young ML +298 .5*
80590 Fritz +6 -113 3*
80590 Fritz ML +354 .5*
80553 Daniel/Nadal u27 -113 5*
82615 Cristea/Ostapenko o21.5 -112 8*
82615 Ostapenko ML -170 4*
82541 Gibbs/Pliskova u17.5 -121
82643 Daria/Rogers o19.5 -112
82682 Darya/McHale o20.5 -112 2*
82679 Flipper +2.5 -109
82673 Madison -6 -110 2*
82624 Aga -5.5 -118 4*
82675 Osaka -4.5 -118 2*

9/1

ATP
80510 Carreno Busta -6 -102
80529 Cilic ML -380 3*
80529 Cilic -5.5 -116
80509 Coric/Anderson o39 -109 3*
80531 Albot/Querrey u33 -110
80523 Isner/Zverev o39.5 -116 7*

WTA
82617 Garcia +3 -118 2*
82617 Garcia ML +141
82625 Suarez-Navarro/Makarova o21 -112 2*
82605 Sloane ML -131 3*
82609 Mugu/Rybarikova o18.5 -113 4*
82608 Sakkari +5.5 +102
82687 Sharapova -6.5 -106 3*
82687 Sharapova/Kenin o18 -116

9/2

ATP
80501 Thiem ML -299 3*
80501 Thiem -5 -114 2*
80503 Mayer/Nadal o31 -112 2*
80511 Dolgopolov -5 -107
80517 DelPo +1.5 -110 4*
80517 DelPo ML +107 2*
80525 Monfils/Goffin o38 -110 4*

WTA
82603 Osaka/Kanepi o21 -115 3*
82614 Ostapenko ML -134 8*
82614 Ostapenko -2 -107 2*
82613 Darya/Ostapenko o21.5 -114 10*
82628 Aga ML -123 2*
82623 Safarova -4.5 +100

9/3

ATP
80508 Shapovalov ML -138 8*
80508 Shapovalov -2 -110 2*
80520 Pouille ML -122 6*
80527 Anderson/Lorenzi o34 -114 8*
80509 Zverev/Querrey o40 -105 5*

WTA
82635 Sharapova ML -280 14*
82635 Sharapova -4 -114 5*
82623 Sloane/Goerges o21.5 -113 5*
82618 Suarez Navarro +3.5 -101 3*
82618 Suarez Navarro ML +182 1.5*
82633 Mugu ML -242 8*
82633 Mugu/Kvitova o21 -114 3*

 

[KJ]

8/28

80507 Zverev -9 -116 3*

Quite simply, I not only think this is complete demolition, I believe King might get bageled in a set. Or two....will call it 6-2, 6-0, 6-1. I really think Sascha might win this tournament, everything seems to be setting up very well for him.

 

[KJ]

8/29

80501 Travaglia/Fognini u34.5 -115
80563 Pospisil +5.5 -110 2*
80563 Pospisil ML +251
80565 Del Potro -8 -101 3*
80575 Monfils/Chardy o34.5 -101 3*
80547 Lopez ML -153
80605 Lajovic/Nadal u27.5 -110 2*
80613 Berdych -5.5 -113 2*
80529 Dimitrov/Safranek o27.5 -115 2*
80562 Brown -112
80607 Seppi/RBA o34.5 -103
80583 Kyrgios/Millman o32.5 +107

 

[KJ]

82643 Bouchard -4 -124 2* (I'm betting Genie and Maria out until they meet each other which would be epic)
82602 Aga -5 +103 2*
82631 Wang +3.5 -112
82701 Zhang ML -150 3*
82628 McHale +4.5 -112 2*
82628 McHale ML +267
82607 Coco/Riske o20 -118
82617 Safarova ML -128 2*

 

[gunner4ever]

Think I mentioned at Wimbledon that I kinda wait until week 2 of majors to go more.

2nd week will be EPIC then!!!

I like most of your picks today anyway, good luck :cheers3:

 

[KJ]

We only get a couple more matches tonight since everything's been postponed so gonna throw a couple out there. All wagers stand as long as the matches start within 72 hours and given that the rain might come in to play again tomorrow I could be sitting on these a couple days. So we'll look at matches on Ashe tonight, think they are complete destruction by the favorites.

82641 Keys/Mertens u20 -114 3*
82641 Keys -5 -108
80609 Tiafoe/Federer u29 -106 4*
80610 Federer -8 -114 2*

Yep, just laid a buncha games and also took unders, rarely you'll see the non-correlation from me but I seriously think these are thrashings.

 

[ksimpsc]

On Fed games as well KJ, BOL hope you been well

 

[KJ]

Thanks bud, good to see you around. GL to us on that, think it's a very quick match

 

[ksimpsc]

Yea man good to be back. Seems like summer always kicks my ass. We need to get some action back in these tenni threads. We used to have a work shop churning here.

 

[KJ]

Couple thoughts, not that anyone reads this crap but looking at the draw...who is gonna beat Maria now? With Halep and Konta both out, there's nothing left on her way to the semis other than...Maria. I'll guess after that emotional match last night she might struggle a bit in round 2 but certainly won't lose. Cibu maybe in the quarters? Hard pressed to convince me of that at all.

And Ostapenko has a nice easy path to the quarters, it's damn near a given at this point she'll go 3 sets then dominate the third. That's what she do. Woz/Venus could be a nice match on the other side of that bracket but I can't see anyone stopping Ostapenko from getting to the final 8. 3 sets at a time.

 

[ksimpsc]

Women's is in a bad place right now with Serena out. Perfect time for Sharapova to step in and win some tournaments. She would have won French if they let her in.

I watched the whole match last night and thought Maria looked great aside from that hiccup at the end of the second set. Few more matches very likely she will be in great form.

She is not my favorite player but hard to deny she seems the favorite to me.

 

[KJ]

I was pulling for Halep and found myself doing a 180 and pulling for Maria at the end. The emotion was raw and real, was great. Actually was texting someone from high school who was there, her first tennis match ever and it was hard to really put into words the greatness she witnessed. That was kinda all time great given the drama involved.

I did forget to mention Mugu who I think doesn't have such a tough path to the semis either although I'm a fan of hers so it's more difficult for me to bet on her. Hell she might be my favorite to win at this point, that firecracker Ostapenko I'm a fan as well and would love to see them meet in the finals.

Really wanted to see Sharapova and Bouchard play a match after Genie basically wants to fight her but opposite sides of the draw, it ain't happening.

Unlike you, I actually now enjoy womens tennis now that Serena is out, it was watered down with her for a decade and not enjoyable to watch at all.

 

[ksimpsc]

Well bad spot in terms of women's tennis kind of bleh to watch some time. Even my mother comments on how bad all of the women are at holding serve sans Serena. But, you are right the draws are more competitive and the drama is a bit more real with her not looming over everyone.

The match last night was awesome and though I don't like her a whole lot sometimes, I am pulling for her to have a good run after the year she had.

Mugu does have a shot for sure, I just thought Maria looked to be in strong form and most of the matches will be on her racket for pace.

 

[KJ]

Thanks for the back n forth, it's refreshing to have the interaction. I'm more interested in WTA than I have been in years because you know as well as I do, these chicks lose far more often than they win. Maria coming back was a necessity for the sport, they needed it badly and it makes this Open incredible imo. There are a few of them now that actually win matches and that's refreshing, just been a comedy of errors for awhile and she actually makes the entire sport interesting for better or worse. I do think Mugu and Ostapenko would be incredible matchups against Maria. Finally some actual shot makers in WTA.

 

[KJ]

Always fun to take a bit of a tournament stab on a couple guys (Zverev and Tsonga, hardly a reach but still) and see them lose in round 2. I'm pulling for Fed, it's obviously his to win but that almost seems too easy at this point.

 

[KJ]

Gonna keep this up, hopefully at a measured pace this week but not the start obviously I wanted, both draws are wide open at this point. I wanted to blame the weather for those losses, but reality is I don't think the extra day mattered so much. It's just been unpredictable and that makes these next buncha days a lot more fun.

8/31

80583 Berdych/Dolgo o35.5 4*
80597 Dmitrov -6.5 -130 2*
80593 DelPo/Menendez o30 -113
80507 Lopez ML -114 3*
80527 Giraldo/Kolschreiber o32 -103 (can see this go to tiebreakers from the beginning and e before I when not after c is a nono, didn't we learn that in first grade?)
80588 Youshny/Roger u29 -110 3*
80547 Monfils/Young o36 -108 4*
80548 Young +6 -118 2*
80548 Young ML +298 .5*
80590 Fritz +6 -113 3*
80590 Fritz ML +354 .5*
80553 Daniel/Nadal u27 -113 5*

 

[KJ]

82615 Cristea/Ostapenko o21.5 -112 8*
82615 Ostapenko ML -170 4* (no secret my love for her)
82541 Gibbs/Pliskova u17.5 -121
82643 Daria/Rogers o19.5 -112
82682 Darya/McHale o20.5 -112 2*
82679 Flipper +2.5 -109
82673 Madison -6 -110 2*
82624 Aga -5.5 -118 4*

 

[ksimpsc]

Haha you love Ostepenko. I love watching Monfils matches, that over looks like a pretty strong one.

 

[KJ]

Haha I actually think chasing Monfils overs would prove fruitful

 

[KJ]

I'd be curious of your response man, on hard court, after Sharapova and Ostapenko, who do you like....they are incredibly built for this. I was impressed with Osaka for sure the other night but gonna just take a hunch that she's too green to make a deep run, but I also thought 4 years ago Keys would be great at this event and just meh....fuggit, gonna add:

82675 Osaka -4.5 -118 2*

That is situationally a very poor wager but what I saw a couple days ago is a potential top 4 in the world, of course she's young but the power is something that makes up for several flaws. Gonna roll with her.

 

[ksimpsc]

Was not surprised to see Sharapova go 3 sets with Babos after the Halep match. DId not bet it because I wanted to see how she would react. Really think she will get back in true competitive form come the next match or two. I think I am rooting for her at this point simply for the story line.

Sloane Stephnes looks a lot better since coming back from surgery but I have 0 faith in her not choking come the quarters or semis if she makes it that far. Muguruza is in a good spot to make a deep run with her part of the bracket but Sharapova v Mugu would be a pretty solid late round match. Obviously Venus doesn't have it anymore. Radwanska is a player i used to think would make a rise but she just doesn't seem to have it in the majors. I also don't think Madison Keys can do it either so it seems to be Sharapova and Mugu coming out of their side of the bracket and shit if Ostepenko plays well she should be able to come out of that side since it is pretty wide open on that end right now.

 

[ksimpsc]

I was also surprised by Osaka in what I watched of her first match. As you said I think she is too young but looks promising moving forward.

 

[KJ]

Thanks for the feedback. I unfortunately put a lot of time into this but equally enjoy it. GL to us both!

 

[KJ]

9/1

ATP
80510 Carreno Busta -6 -102
80529 Cilic ML -380 3* (yup)
80529 Cilic -5.5 -116
80509 Coric/Anderson o39 -109 3*
80531 Albot/Querrey u33 -110
80523 Isner/Zverev o39.5 -116 7*

WTA
82617 Garcia +3 -118 2*
82617 Garcia ML +141
82625 Suarez-Navarro/Makarova o21 -112 2*
82605 Sloane ML -131 3*
82609 Mugu/Rybarikova o18.5 -113 4*
82608 Sakkari +5.5 +102
82687 Sharapova -6.5 -106 3*
82687 Sharapova/Kenin o18 -116

For anyone who is crazy enough to literally not care about juice, the Sharapova ML right now for me is -1258 and I don't have it in me to lay it but should. She's now 19-0 (I believe) on Ashe and Friday night prime time in NYC, she's not only not losing, she's should absolutely crush...only reason I put a little something on the over is because it doesn't take but a couple errors for over 18 to at least come into play but 1/12.5 odds imo are very much shorter than they should be. She would win here 19 times out of 20 and that 20th would be because she rolled an ankle so badly she couldn't finish.

 

[ksimpsc]

Good looking card today. BOL. You think Sloane has turned the corner on her choke artist days?

 

[KJ]

Haha no but the entire WTA is a choke machine, it's why I'm backing Maria and Ostapenko...those are about the only two I trust.

Thanks for the well wishes.

 

[KJ]

I shoulda thrown Mugu into that group I trust, I do quite a bit but now down a significant amount this first week and while I'm seriously thinking about going out there next week even if for just a day, this has been so frustrating these lost wagers are making me think twice. FML...not life changing but at this point it feels like throwing darts (the bracket is insanely nuts and wide open)...at this point the only players I trust are Maria, Ostapenko, Mugu and Fed...I guess I should trust Rafa to be there too but the other half of the men's draw, wtf? It's insane....it's gonna be square as fuck to pick Fed and Nadal to meet in the semis and right now I can't remotely trust that to play out. Other side of that bracket...um guess I lean Pouille or Querrey but neither of them have such a history to feel comfy. And of course the worse Zverev brother looks incredible.

 

[KJ]

9/2

80501 Thiem ML -299 3*
80501 Thiem -5 -114 2*
80503 Mayer/Nadal o31 -112 2*
80511 Dolgopolov -5 -107
80517 DelPo +1.5 -110 4*
80517 DelPo ML +107 2*
80525 Monfils/Goffin o38 -110 4*

Can't back Fed after back to back 5 setters, assume he'll beat Lopez but at this point I could see Lopez giving him fits too. At 36 after those matches, Feliciano could seriously frustrate him and between the back and the age, he's gonna make Fed move with that serve. A good one to sit back and watch.

 

[KJ]

WTA
82603 Osaka/Kanepi o21 -115 3*
82614 Ostapenko ML -134 8*
82614 Ostapenko -2 -107 2*
82613 Darya/Ostapenko o21.5 -114 10*
82628 Aga ML -123 2*
82623 Safarova -4.5 +100

With CFB on Sat, hopefully there will be some distraction during that Ostapenko match because obviously I'm loaded on it at it will likely be a mood swing for me one way or the other. I trust her and I trust she'll make it stressful...don't know if I'll even watch it other than just getting updates. Highly doubt Darya has any control in that match and she might well just hope Ostapenko loses it on her own. Man I hope Jelena shows up composed. If so, she will win this with ease, but not until the third set if history has taught us anything. And that's nerve wracking.

 

[KJ]

A bunch of good calls on Saturday don't really matter when the horse you're riding looked like she might have been in labor on the court. God that was painful to watch. Dominate the first three games then suddenly lose 11 in a row? Hope she's ok, I'll be riding her plenty again (insert joke)

At this point here come the larger wagers because A) I'm starting to just laugh about it and not give a fuck and B) I've invested so much time watching (hell watched tennis half the day on CFB Saturday). I feel like I should know what I'm doing, at least to a degree. Have gotten to the point I've almost given up on unders on the hard court in the bigger matches, the really good players just don't tend to get broken on this surface. Also the good ones are finally getting MLs that are at least manageable and imo and through the years in this sport I've learned virtually anything -350 on the ML for the really good players is manageable. I guess it used to be tough to stomach but unlike other sports, in tennis if you're afraid to lay those numbers you just shouldn't play the sport. To lay -300 in this sport, because it's individual and not team, is a necessity at times. See Maria and Mugu below lol, fuck if either loses today I don't know whether I'll be pissed off or just laugh at this point. And I'm wrong a ton but think those afraid to lay those numbers in this sport are foolish. But see my record in this tournament so far ffs...but getting shaken is a true sign of defeat, not going down like that.

I'm all in on Sharapova/Mugu now, not that I haven't been but did think Ostapenko could make a run until she randomly got food poisoning in the middle of the match today (just a hunch). Doubt anyone even knows who Sevastova is but would love just one opinion on how the hell she'll beat a Sharapova today who not only appears to be on a mission to dominate but also (I think) is ceasing the moment with Serena out reproducing to not only come back from being called a cheater, in which I disagree and think it could well have been an honest mistake, but feels like she could be the dominant one in women's tennis now for several years. Never know how/if/when Serena comes back after having a child.

Enough small talk. This day could be a wild ride. My two favorites are both in action which means Monday will suck to watch other than Fed, not quite sure his ML is in betting range yet although it might have value, still gonna be tough, guy's got more sets under his belt in this tournament than he (or I) would like at this point.

9/3

ATP
80508 Shapovalov ML -138 8*
80508 Shapovalov -2 -110 2*
80520 Pouille ML -122 6*
80527 Anderson/Lorenzi o34 -114 8*
80509 Zverev/Querrey o40 -105 5*

WTA
82635 Sharapova ML -280 14*
82635 Sharapova -4 -114 5*
82623 Sloane/Goerges o21.5 -113 5*
82618 Suarez Navarro +3.5 -101 3*
82618 Suarez Navarro ML +182 1.5*
82633 Mugu ML -242 8*
82633 Mugu/Kvitova o21 -114 3* (I consider this insurance only because I seriously can't see Muguruza not winning enough games to cover the total if she loses)

 

[ksimpsc]

I was considering throwing some larger wager on Sharapova as well. The tournament is hers to lose at this point

 

[KJ]

I've known guys to lay -1800 and higher live betting just to lose in team sports. Sat and watched it happen one day twice lol...during March Madness. That's insane.

But an individual sport like tennis is such a different animal, to me if you can't lay numbers that look crooked to people it's hard to win. Again, I'm down significantly this tournament. Still think I'm going to end up in the black, gotta stay confident and committed and feel I've got a pretty good read on it now.

Like I said in your thread, I'd still bet Ostapenko large today. Can't control whatever it was that randomly happened to her yesterday...dwell on that loss and you can kill yourself mentally. It was expensive...but that happens.

 

[KJ]

Can't imagine how much I'd have lost if someone gave me an Ostapenko to win over 5.5 games. That kind of bet would be an ultimate nut kickin after starting out up 3-0. Jfc just pissed thinking about it lol