3 Player Props April 30: Forecast Calls for Raining Threes from Kevin Huerter
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
Summary
Golden State's Defense
The best way to succeed against Golden State's defense is by attacking it from behind the arc.
Golden State ranks 21stat limiting opposing three-point attempts -- indeed, this game has reached Game 7 because Sacramento was able to manufacture 45 three-point attempts, and it converted 17 of them, in Game 6.
Looking at the entire postseason, the Warriors are allowing the second-highest frequency of wide-open three-point attempts.
While they are doing a modestly better job of limiting opposing open three-point attempts, they've been fortunate that opponents haven't been taking advantage of them to much of an extent.
One must expect Warriors' opponents to increase the efficiency with which they convert open as well as wide open three-point attempts.
Relevantly to my favorite player prop bet, Golden State's perimeter defense struggles have been strongest on the road, where they allow the second-most made threes per game.
My Favorite Kings' Player
Given Golden State's perimeter defense struggles, I recommend investing in a Kings' player who is strong from behind the arc.
My choice is Kevin Huerter, and I am interested in his point total, which is listed at 11.5.
Huerter was Sacramento's highest-volume three-point shooter during the regular season.
He also converted 40.2-percent of his three-point attempts.
So far in this series, he has exceeded 11 points three times.
What is impressive about this fact is that he is underperforming greatly from behind the arc, converting 21.2 percent of his three-point attempts.
When he rediscovers his three-point shooting prowess, it will be all the likelier that he exceeds 11 points.
Best Bet: Kevin Huerter over 11.5 points at -118 with Bovada
Summary
Sacramento's Poor Rim Protection
Throughout the season, Sacramento has been very much an offense-first team.
As evident in the disparity between their points per game and points allowed per game rankings, the Kings need to rely on outscoring their opponents.
Their defensive weakness makes opposing offenses filled with guys who can hit the "over" on their player point total prop.
Of course, we can't invest in every Warriors' player.
So, we should find a Warriors' player who can target Sacramento's greatest defensive weakness.
On defense, Sacramento struggles most to protect the basket.
The Kings allow the fourth-highest field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket in the postseason.
Sacramento's defensive struggle in front of the basket is not anomalous; it is not confined to the postseason.
In the regular season, they ranked ninth-worst at limiting field goal efficiency in this area of the court.
Center Domantas Sabonis' defensive rating has declined this year relative to his seasons as a Pacer.
He suffers from having teammates who, like Kevin Huerter, have struggled to protect the basket.
My Favorite Warriors' Player
I especially like Andrew Wiggins to exploit Sacramento's vulnerable rim protection.
In this postseason, he leads the Warriors in field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.
He is well-known as a strong driver to the basket where he finishes with his characteristic length and explosiveness.
Aided by capable but currently disappointing three-point shooting, he has scored 20 or more points three times in this series.
For this player prop bet, 18 will suffice.
Best Bet: Andrew Wiggins over 17.5 points at -118 with Bovada
Summary
Golden State's Defensive Strength
Rim protection is Golden State's best defensive feature.
While Warriors' perimeter defense is well-known to be vulnerable, this vulnerability actually helps its rim protection, because the Kings will be focused on beating the Warriors by making three-pointers.
They won't win by focusing on attacking the basket.
Such a strategy would be futile against the Warriors' defense.
During the regular season, Golden State allowed the fewest field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.
In the postseason, the Warriors rank fifth-best at limiting field goal efficiency in this area of the court.
Skeptics may worry about Golden State's lack of size in the frontcourt.
But their rim protection stats are so strong because smaller key defenders like Kevon Looney are used to handling bigger players, centers who will try to use their size advantage and physical talent to bully them.
Domantas Sabonis' Outlook
Domantas Sabonis is Sacramento's starting center.
Sabonis does like to use bully-ball tactics when he's being guarded in the post.
But bully-ball can't be expected to work against Golden State's evidently stout interior defense.
One might say that Sabonis should still expect some volume because the Kings lack frontcourt depth, so they require him to score inside.
But besides his team's reliance on three-point shooting and Golden State's interior defense, the over/under for Sabonis' point total is too ambitious.
The over/under is currently 18.5 points, which is a number that he failed to approach in four games in this series.
He mustered seven points in Game 6, in fact.
Best Bet: Domantas Sabonis under 18.5 points at -122 with Bovada
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
Summary
- Golden State's perimeter defense allows a lot of wide-open three-point attempts
- The Warriors' perimeter defense struggles especially away from home.
- Kevin Huerter is a high-volume three-point shooter who is due to improve from deep.
Golden State's Defense
The best way to succeed against Golden State's defense is by attacking it from behind the arc.
Golden State ranks 21stat limiting opposing three-point attempts -- indeed, this game has reached Game 7 because Sacramento was able to manufacture 45 three-point attempts, and it converted 17 of them, in Game 6.
Looking at the entire postseason, the Warriors are allowing the second-highest frequency of wide-open three-point attempts.
While they are doing a modestly better job of limiting opposing open three-point attempts, they've been fortunate that opponents haven't been taking advantage of them to much of an extent.
One must expect Warriors' opponents to increase the efficiency with which they convert open as well as wide open three-point attempts.
Relevantly to my favorite player prop bet, Golden State's perimeter defense struggles have been strongest on the road, where they allow the second-most made threes per game.
My Favorite Kings' Player
Given Golden State's perimeter defense struggles, I recommend investing in a Kings' player who is strong from behind the arc.
My choice is Kevin Huerter, and I am interested in his point total, which is listed at 11.5.
Huerter was Sacramento's highest-volume three-point shooter during the regular season.
He also converted 40.2-percent of his three-point attempts.
So far in this series, he has exceeded 11 points three times.
What is impressive about this fact is that he is underperforming greatly from behind the arc, converting 21.2 percent of his three-point attempts.
When he rediscovers his three-point shooting prowess, it will be all the likelier that he exceeds 11 points.
Best Bet: Kevin Huerter over 11.5 points at -118 with Bovada
Summary
- The Kings are very much an offensive-minded team.
- Sacramento's rim protection is weak mostly because it lacks quality rim-protecting personnel.
- Andrew Wiggins is Golden State's top field goal-maker within five feet of the basket.
Sacramento's Poor Rim Protection
Throughout the season, Sacramento has been very much an offense-first team.
As evident in the disparity between their points per game and points allowed per game rankings, the Kings need to rely on outscoring their opponents.
Their defensive weakness makes opposing offenses filled with guys who can hit the "over" on their player point total prop.
Of course, we can't invest in every Warriors' player.
So, we should find a Warriors' player who can target Sacramento's greatest defensive weakness.
On defense, Sacramento struggles most to protect the basket.
The Kings allow the fourth-highest field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket in the postseason.
Sacramento's defensive struggle in front of the basket is not anomalous; it is not confined to the postseason.
In the regular season, they ranked ninth-worst at limiting field goal efficiency in this area of the court.
Center Domantas Sabonis' defensive rating has declined this year relative to his seasons as a Pacer.
He suffers from having teammates who, like Kevin Huerter, have struggled to protect the basket.
My Favorite Warriors' Player
I especially like Andrew Wiggins to exploit Sacramento's vulnerable rim protection.
In this postseason, he leads the Warriors in field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.
He is well-known as a strong driver to the basket where he finishes with his characteristic length and explosiveness.
Aided by capable but currently disappointing three-point shooting, he has scored 20 or more points three times in this series.
For this player prop bet, 18 will suffice.
Best Bet: Andrew Wiggins over 17.5 points at -118 with Bovada
Summary
- Golden State is one of the best teams at limiting field goals made and field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
- Sacramento will want to focus on making three-pointers rather than on attacking inside.
- Domantas Sabonis is struggling to score against the Warriors' stout rim protection.
Golden State's Defensive Strength
Rim protection is Golden State's best defensive feature.
While Warriors' perimeter defense is well-known to be vulnerable, this vulnerability actually helps its rim protection, because the Kings will be focused on beating the Warriors by making three-pointers.
They won't win by focusing on attacking the basket.
Such a strategy would be futile against the Warriors' defense.
During the regular season, Golden State allowed the fewest field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.
In the postseason, the Warriors rank fifth-best at limiting field goal efficiency in this area of the court.
Skeptics may worry about Golden State's lack of size in the frontcourt.
But their rim protection stats are so strong because smaller key defenders like Kevon Looney are used to handling bigger players, centers who will try to use their size advantage and physical talent to bully them.
Domantas Sabonis' Outlook
Domantas Sabonis is Sacramento's starting center.
Sabonis does like to use bully-ball tactics when he's being guarded in the post.
But bully-ball can't be expected to work against Golden State's evidently stout interior defense.
One might say that Sabonis should still expect some volume because the Kings lack frontcourt depth, so they require him to score inside.
But besides his team's reliance on three-point shooting and Golden State's interior defense, the over/under for Sabonis' point total is too ambitious.
The over/under is currently 18.5 points, which is a number that he failed to approach in four games in this series.
He mustered seven points in Game 6, in fact.
Best Bet: Domantas Sabonis under 18.5 points at -122 with Bovada
