Kings vs. Clippers: NBA Picks and Predictions
Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Sunday, February 7, 2021 at 3 p.m. ET at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California
Injuries
Two notable Clipper players will miss today’s game due to injury.
One is Paul George, who is important as the team’s second-leading scorer. He averages 12.3 more points per game than L.A.’s third-leading scorer.
George played a significant role in L.A.’s previous two wins over Sacramento this season.
In L.A.’s first meeting with Sacramento, George was his team’s second-leading scorer with 26 points.
In the second meeting, he was again Los Angeles’ second-leading scorer.
So George’s absence creates a meaningful void in scoring output.
The second notable Clipper absence is Patrick Beverley.
Beverley has garned a reputation for his fierceness and feistiness on the defensive end.
His ability to disturb opposing guards is something that the Clippers miss right now.
Opposing Guards
Lately, L.A. has struggled to contain opposing point and shooting guards.
In their last game, against Boston, the Clippers allowed Kemba Walker to exceed his scoring average.
Against Cleveland, their previous opponent, L.A. allowed Collin Sexton to do the same.
On February 2, Kyrie Irving produced 39 points against the Clippers.
Four games ago, the Clippers allowed two Knick shooting guards to combine for 48 points.
Why This Matters
Los Angeles' vulnerability — magnified by the absence of Beverley — against opposing guards provides a big match-up advantage for the Kings.
Sacramento is led in scoring by point guard De’Aaron Fox with fellow guard Buddy Hield close behind him.
Fox has been sizzling to start February, averaging 29.3 points through three games in this month.
Hield had a rare bad game yesterday — although the Kings were able to win without his production.
If you look at Hield’s game-by-game shooting performances, it’s clear that he’s not one to slump, that he’s rather one to bounce back from an off night with a stronger performance.
Tyrese Haiburton also provides an unexpected boost at the position with his 30 or so minutes per game.
Haliburton has a high IQ that allows him to locate, create and exploit more scoring opportunities en route to assist and scoring rates that are placing him in conversations for Rookie of the Year honors.
His higher steal rate also unveils his opportunism on defense and his ascending status as a defender.
In Sacramento’s last two games, he’s accrued 44 points, 10 assists, and four steals combined.
Transition
There's Hield, who is known for being a high-volume, proficient shooter from deep, and the well-rounded Haliburton.
Then there’s Fox, who is known for his prowess in transition. He is fast down the court and is both a strong passer and a superb finisher in transition opportunities.
You can see his highlight reel in transition here:
Whether he’s stepping in a passing lane, catching a blocked shot, or finding another opportunity, he’ll run and then utilize one of his various moves in front of the basket: a spin, a floater, a hesitation, and so on.
Transition offense is an important part of the Kings' scoring output because it’s not just Fox. Guys like Harrison Barnes — with his improved assist rate and creativity — are also stepping up to get others involved.
As a team, they have the fifth-highest frequency of transition plays.
Sacramento can be particularly effective with this play type against the Clippers because the Clippers own the fourth-worst transition defense as measured by PPP (points per possession) allowed.
Transition defense has been an repetitive issue for the Clippers and it will be again tonight.
Improved Defense
With all the scoring that the Kings do and are capable of, we don’t need much from the defense.
Throughout most of the season, Sacramento has been bad on this end of the court.
But the Kings have been improving lately, as measured by their reduction in opposing points per game.
If the Kings had been allowing as few points as they have been in their last three games on average, then they would be a middle-of-the-pack defense as opposed to a bottom-ranking one.
Importantly, Sacramento owns the 10th-best defense against the pick-and-roll ball-handler, which is important because the Clippers favor this play type.
Defense has been an focal point of King practices. As a result, individual players are stepping up as they haven’t been before.
One example is Marvin Bagley, who is more likely now to stay in his defensive stance and stay in front of the ball when isolated against an opponent.
The Verdict
With its improved defense and consistently solid scoring, Sacramento is on a 7-0 ATS run.
Besides being the hotter and more consistent team — as today's underdog, no less — the Kings match up well with L.A. given their strengths in transition offense, guard play, and ball-screen defense.
Best Bets: Kings +8.5 at -108 with Heritage
Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Sunday, February 7, 2021 at 3 p.m. ET at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California
Injuries
Two notable Clipper players will miss today’s game due to injury.
One is Paul George, who is important as the team’s second-leading scorer. He averages 12.3 more points per game than L.A.’s third-leading scorer.
George played a significant role in L.A.’s previous two wins over Sacramento this season.
In L.A.’s first meeting with Sacramento, George was his team’s second-leading scorer with 26 points.
In the second meeting, he was again Los Angeles’ second-leading scorer.
So George’s absence creates a meaningful void in scoring output.
The second notable Clipper absence is Patrick Beverley.
Beverley has garned a reputation for his fierceness and feistiness on the defensive end.
His ability to disturb opposing guards is something that the Clippers miss right now.
Opposing Guards
Lately, L.A. has struggled to contain opposing point and shooting guards.
In their last game, against Boston, the Clippers allowed Kemba Walker to exceed his scoring average.
Against Cleveland, their previous opponent, L.A. allowed Collin Sexton to do the same.
On February 2, Kyrie Irving produced 39 points against the Clippers.
Four games ago, the Clippers allowed two Knick shooting guards to combine for 48 points.
Why This Matters
Los Angeles' vulnerability — magnified by the absence of Beverley — against opposing guards provides a big match-up advantage for the Kings.
Sacramento is led in scoring by point guard De’Aaron Fox with fellow guard Buddy Hield close behind him.
Fox has been sizzling to start February, averaging 29.3 points through three games in this month.
Hield had a rare bad game yesterday — although the Kings were able to win without his production.
If you look at Hield’s game-by-game shooting performances, it’s clear that he’s not one to slump, that he’s rather one to bounce back from an off night with a stronger performance.
Tyrese Haiburton also provides an unexpected boost at the position with his 30 or so minutes per game.
Haliburton has a high IQ that allows him to locate, create and exploit more scoring opportunities en route to assist and scoring rates that are placing him in conversations for Rookie of the Year honors.
His higher steal rate also unveils his opportunism on defense and his ascending status as a defender.
In Sacramento’s last two games, he’s accrued 44 points, 10 assists, and four steals combined.
Transition
There's Hield, who is known for being a high-volume, proficient shooter from deep, and the well-rounded Haliburton.
Then there’s Fox, who is known for his prowess in transition. He is fast down the court and is both a strong passer and a superb finisher in transition opportunities.
You can see his highlight reel in transition here:
Whether he’s stepping in a passing lane, catching a blocked shot, or finding another opportunity, he’ll run and then utilize one of his various moves in front of the basket: a spin, a floater, a hesitation, and so on.
Transition offense is an important part of the Kings' scoring output because it’s not just Fox. Guys like Harrison Barnes — with his improved assist rate and creativity — are also stepping up to get others involved.
As a team, they have the fifth-highest frequency of transition plays.
Sacramento can be particularly effective with this play type against the Clippers because the Clippers own the fourth-worst transition defense as measured by PPP (points per possession) allowed.
Transition defense has been an repetitive issue for the Clippers and it will be again tonight.
Improved Defense
With all the scoring that the Kings do and are capable of, we don’t need much from the defense.
Throughout most of the season, Sacramento has been bad on this end of the court.
But the Kings have been improving lately, as measured by their reduction in opposing points per game.
If the Kings had been allowing as few points as they have been in their last three games on average, then they would be a middle-of-the-pack defense as opposed to a bottom-ranking one.
Importantly, Sacramento owns the 10th-best defense against the pick-and-roll ball-handler, which is important because the Clippers favor this play type.
Defense has been an focal point of King practices. As a result, individual players are stepping up as they haven’t been before.
One example is Marvin Bagley, who is more likely now to stay in his defensive stance and stay in front of the ball when isolated against an opponent.
The Verdict
With its improved defense and consistently solid scoring, Sacramento is on a 7-0 ATS run.
Besides being the hotter and more consistent team — as today's underdog, no less — the Kings match up well with L.A. given their strengths in transition offense, guard play, and ball-screen defense.
Best Bets: Kings +8.5 at -108 with Heritage
