NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, February 1, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
Sacramento’s Defense
It is not debatable that the Kings’ defense is bad. They rank second-to-last in allowing 119.7 points per game.
But I like the Pelicans’ offense tonight particularly because of the ways in which Sacramento’s defense is poor.
Interior Defense & Pick-and-Roll Defense
For starters, Sacramento’s interior defense is awful.
The Kings allow the sixth-worst field goal percentage on shots attempted within five feet of the basket.
Ideally, a defense that is weak in the interior could scheme in order to limit the number of times that opponents can penetrate or otherwise reach this distance of five feet within the basket.
But the Kings also allow a high rate of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
This is to be expected from the Kings because they foreground guys who play awful defense. Bad defenders see a lot of minutes for the Kings because those bad defenders are also needed for offensive production.
Two of the culprits whom I wish to highlight are shooting guard Buddy Hield and power forward Marvin Bagley.
Hield’s defensive rating is 117.4 while Bagley’s is 119.4. Defensive ratings are like golf scores: higher means worse. So these are awful numbers.
But Hield averages the second-highest number of minutes on the team while Bagley isn’t far behind him because both players are capable scorers: Hield averages 16.2 points per game while Bagley averages 13.3.
Bagley offers minimal rim protection, blocking .5 shots per game. He and Hield are helpless in isolation. When guarding an opponent, they have massive difficulty keeping him in front of them. So opposing offenses will scheme in order to create one-on-one match-ups with either player.
Sacramento also owns the sixth-worst pick-and-roll defense based on opposing PPP (points per possession).
New Orleans Offense vs. Sacramento Defense
It’s important to know that Sacramento’s interior defense is putrid because the Pelicans love to attack the basket. They attempt the eight-highest field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Zion Williamson is worth noting here because the former Duke big man has become a consistently even more dangerous scoring force. After averaging 19.4 points per game in December, he averaged 25.8 in January.
Brandon Ingram is also a characteristic slasher who will thrive at the rim tonight. This season, he has always bounced back with a 20+ scoring output after failing to accrue 20 points in his previous game.
The Pelicans are also a heavy ball-screen-usage team, which makes them match up well against Sacramento’s poor ball-screen coverage.
Sacramento Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
With the Pelicans amassing seven straight overs, there is not much to like about their defense.
New Orleans’ defensive weakness is its inability to make life difficult for opposing shooters.
The Pelicans allow a lot of uncontested three-point attempts.
They allow the sixth-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and the second-highest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
These stats mean that opposing three-point shooters are often at least four feet removed from the nearest defender.
Sacramento has been attempting threes lately at one of the NBA’s highest rates.
The Kings have the personnel to shoot well. With their bevy of three-point shooters, they can score a lot of effortless points against this Pelican defense.
Hield has converted over 42 percent of his three-pointers in each of his last six games. He is a high-volume shooter who is normally this reliable.
Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton, and De’Aaron Fox are also likely and efficient candidates.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, February 1, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
Lakers’ Ball-Screen Defense
It is crucial to note for tonight’s game that the Lakers own the fourth-best defense against the pick-and-roll ball-handler based on opposing PPP.
On defense, L.A. likes to be aggressive in its ball-screen coverage. You will see Laker players disrupt and stymy screens with traps, hedges, and other aggressive actions.
Gone are the days of relying on conservative, drop coverage and the departure of these days is paying off.
They have quicker defenders now who replace L.A.’s previous, slower low-post guys. These newer, quicker defenders are able to bother opposing ball-handlers, rotate well, and otherwise position themselves effectively in order to deter the opposing ball-handler from using a screen to easily shoot or attack the rim.
Why This Matters
The effectivity of Los Angeles’ defense against the pick-and-roll ball-handler is crucial to note because Atlanta’s offense relies heavily on this play type.
The Hawks attempt the fifth-highest frequency of pick-and-roll ball-handler plays.
They have played two games against a rare opponent that ranks stronger than the Lakers in defending against this type of play.
That opponent was the Hornets and Atlanta lost to them both times they played. Atlanta lost by eight points in each game despite being favored.
Injuries Affecting Odds
Hawk forward De’Andre Hunter has been ruled out for tonight’s game.
Losing Hunter is a big deal for his scoring ability. He ranks second on the team with 17.2 points per game.
Given his absence, Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter stand to play more minutes.
Neither player, though, approaches Hunter’s offensive prowess.
Despite playing about an equal number of minutes as Hunter, Reddish averages only 12.3 points per game and Huerter 11.4.
Reddish is a notoriously bad shooter — this weakness was already prominent in his days at Duke. Huerter is only slightly more efficient, though.
Even though Hunter is clearly an offensive weapon that will be missed, the NBA odds are not affected by his absence.
But if Laker star Anthony Davis misses the game — he is listed as ‘questionable’ with a quad injury — then the line will surely plummet in Atlanta’s favor.
We want those free points that we would get if Davis can’t go simply because they are free points.
So keep Davis’ status in mind when placing your NBA bets tonight.
Also, LeBron is listed as ‘questionable.’ But this is nothing new and his ‘questionable’ status cannot justifiably raise doubts about his ability to play.
Laker Offense
Stars LeBron and AD will get their share of points. Harrell is also a double-digit scorer on average as a characteristic monster around the rim.
But tonight presents a unique opportunity for Laker guards to impress in the scoring department.
Trae Young’s defense is horribly limited by his frame. He has a poor defensive rating and a low ceiling on defense in general. Huerter’s defensive rating is much worse than Hunter’s.
Hunter has always been a strong and versatile defender with his length and lateral foot speed.
So Young and Huerter playing as much as they will means more points than usual for guys like Dennis Schroder, who will complement L.A.’s offerings inside.
Parlay Verdict
New Orleans is on a seven-game ‘over’ streak that promises to continue given Sacramento’s inability to guard ball-screens or to protect the interior and given Sacramento’s ability to exploit the Pelicans’ poor perimeter defense.
L.A., given its strong ball-screen coverage, will limit an Atlanta offense that will rely too heavily on Trae Young. Young, missing Hunter, could not possibly do enough for Atlanta to keep pace with a Laker offense that is dominant down-low with LeBron and AD but also features guards who stand to perform better than usual tonight.
Best Bet: Parlay Pelicans/Kings Over 232.5 at -110 & Lakers -6 at -110 at +264 odds at BetOnline
Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, February 1, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
Sacramento’s Defense
It is not debatable that the Kings’ defense is bad. They rank second-to-last in allowing 119.7 points per game.
But I like the Pelicans’ offense tonight particularly because of the ways in which Sacramento’s defense is poor.
Interior Defense & Pick-and-Roll Defense
For starters, Sacramento’s interior defense is awful.
The Kings allow the sixth-worst field goal percentage on shots attempted within five feet of the basket.
Ideally, a defense that is weak in the interior could scheme in order to limit the number of times that opponents can penetrate or otherwise reach this distance of five feet within the basket.
But the Kings also allow a high rate of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
This is to be expected from the Kings because they foreground guys who play awful defense. Bad defenders see a lot of minutes for the Kings because those bad defenders are also needed for offensive production.
Two of the culprits whom I wish to highlight are shooting guard Buddy Hield and power forward Marvin Bagley.
Hield’s defensive rating is 117.4 while Bagley’s is 119.4. Defensive ratings are like golf scores: higher means worse. So these are awful numbers.
But Hield averages the second-highest number of minutes on the team while Bagley isn’t far behind him because both players are capable scorers: Hield averages 16.2 points per game while Bagley averages 13.3.
Bagley offers minimal rim protection, blocking .5 shots per game. He and Hield are helpless in isolation. When guarding an opponent, they have massive difficulty keeping him in front of them. So opposing offenses will scheme in order to create one-on-one match-ups with either player.
Sacramento also owns the sixth-worst pick-and-roll defense based on opposing PPP (points per possession).
New Orleans Offense vs. Sacramento Defense
It’s important to know that Sacramento’s interior defense is putrid because the Pelicans love to attack the basket. They attempt the eight-highest field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Zion Williamson is worth noting here because the former Duke big man has become a consistently even more dangerous scoring force. After averaging 19.4 points per game in December, he averaged 25.8 in January.
Brandon Ingram is also a characteristic slasher who will thrive at the rim tonight. This season, he has always bounced back with a 20+ scoring output after failing to accrue 20 points in his previous game.
The Pelicans are also a heavy ball-screen-usage team, which makes them match up well against Sacramento’s poor ball-screen coverage.
Sacramento Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
With the Pelicans amassing seven straight overs, there is not much to like about their defense.
New Orleans’ defensive weakness is its inability to make life difficult for opposing shooters.
The Pelicans allow a lot of uncontested three-point attempts.
They allow the sixth-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and the second-highest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
These stats mean that opposing three-point shooters are often at least four feet removed from the nearest defender.
Sacramento has been attempting threes lately at one of the NBA’s highest rates.
The Kings have the personnel to shoot well. With their bevy of three-point shooters, they can score a lot of effortless points against this Pelican defense.
Hield has converted over 42 percent of his three-pointers in each of his last six games. He is a high-volume shooter who is normally this reliable.
Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton, and De’Aaron Fox are also likely and efficient candidates.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, February 1, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
Lakers’ Ball-Screen Defense
It is crucial to note for tonight’s game that the Lakers own the fourth-best defense against the pick-and-roll ball-handler based on opposing PPP.
On defense, L.A. likes to be aggressive in its ball-screen coverage. You will see Laker players disrupt and stymy screens with traps, hedges, and other aggressive actions.
Gone are the days of relying on conservative, drop coverage and the departure of these days is paying off.
They have quicker defenders now who replace L.A.’s previous, slower low-post guys. These newer, quicker defenders are able to bother opposing ball-handlers, rotate well, and otherwise position themselves effectively in order to deter the opposing ball-handler from using a screen to easily shoot or attack the rim.
Why This Matters
The effectivity of Los Angeles’ defense against the pick-and-roll ball-handler is crucial to note because Atlanta’s offense relies heavily on this play type.
The Hawks attempt the fifth-highest frequency of pick-and-roll ball-handler plays.
They have played two games against a rare opponent that ranks stronger than the Lakers in defending against this type of play.
That opponent was the Hornets and Atlanta lost to them both times they played. Atlanta lost by eight points in each game despite being favored.
Injuries Affecting Odds
Hawk forward De’Andre Hunter has been ruled out for tonight’s game.
Losing Hunter is a big deal for his scoring ability. He ranks second on the team with 17.2 points per game.
Given his absence, Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter stand to play more minutes.
Neither player, though, approaches Hunter’s offensive prowess.
Despite playing about an equal number of minutes as Hunter, Reddish averages only 12.3 points per game and Huerter 11.4.
Reddish is a notoriously bad shooter — this weakness was already prominent in his days at Duke. Huerter is only slightly more efficient, though.
Even though Hunter is clearly an offensive weapon that will be missed, the NBA odds are not affected by his absence.
But if Laker star Anthony Davis misses the game — he is listed as ‘questionable’ with a quad injury — then the line will surely plummet in Atlanta’s favor.
We want those free points that we would get if Davis can’t go simply because they are free points.
So keep Davis’ status in mind when placing your NBA bets tonight.
Also, LeBron is listed as ‘questionable.’ But this is nothing new and his ‘questionable’ status cannot justifiably raise doubts about his ability to play.
Laker Offense
Stars LeBron and AD will get their share of points. Harrell is also a double-digit scorer on average as a characteristic monster around the rim.
But tonight presents a unique opportunity for Laker guards to impress in the scoring department.
Trae Young’s defense is horribly limited by his frame. He has a poor defensive rating and a low ceiling on defense in general. Huerter’s defensive rating is much worse than Hunter’s.
Hunter has always been a strong and versatile defender with his length and lateral foot speed.
So Young and Huerter playing as much as they will means more points than usual for guys like Dennis Schroder, who will complement L.A.’s offerings inside.
Parlay Verdict
New Orleans is on a seven-game ‘over’ streak that promises to continue given Sacramento’s inability to guard ball-screens or to protect the interior and given Sacramento’s ability to exploit the Pelicans’ poor perimeter defense.
L.A., given its strong ball-screen coverage, will limit an Atlanta offense that will rely too heavily on Trae Young. Young, missing Hunter, could not possibly do enough for Atlanta to keep pace with a Laker offense that is dominant down-low with LeBron and AD but also features guards who stand to perform better than usual tonight.
Best Bet: Parlay Pelicans/Kings Over 232.5 at -110 & Lakers -6 at -110 at +264 odds at BetOnline
