Kinda cool, I have a $6,000 ticket on NYG....

Hawaiiguy

Hawaiiguy

Big Kahuna
<TABLE id=pendingWager cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=pending><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD width=220>Future Wager</TD><TD>12/12/07 00:56 ET</TD></TR><TR><TD width=220>bet 100.00 to win 6,000.00 </TD><TD>Result: Pending</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=pendingAltColor colSpan=2><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Odds to Win 2008 Super Bowl XLII - Glendale AZ</TD></TR><TR><TD width=220>New York Giants </TD><TD>02/03/08(20:00 ET)
60 - 1
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I bought this as you can see a little over a month ago.

I don't buy futures that much, maybe once a year or so, so I bought this and Green Bay Packers at 25 to 1; no matter what I had a ticket to the Super Bowl.....

I hate the Giants and the Packers, just thought the value was there....did i think the Giants would go? Fuck no, I planned to bet against them in the playoffs figuring they would make the playoffs......

QUESTION: MONEYLINE ON NEW ENGLAND TO WIN SUPER BOWL?

I AM THINKING -500 FOR A 13 POINT FAVORITE........

SO I WOULD HAVE TO LAY $5,000 ON NE MONEYLINE TO GUARANTEE MYSELF $1,000......

ANY GUESSES ON THE MONEYLINE?:whip:

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Goodluck finding a ML.. I think the spead is 13 1/2. I don't know any books that'll take action on that ML. And i cant imagine anyone taking a 5,000$ ML bet.

EDIT:

I take that back! Pinnicle has it at -480! :tiphat:
 
Moneyline is all over.

I see 5dimes has -530 to open with, now recently reduced to -470.
 
MemphisFan said:
Goodluck finding a ML.. I think the spead is 13 1/2. I don't know any books that'll take action on that ML. And i cant imagine anyone taking a 5,000$ ML bet.
Click to expand...
ML will come out closer to game time ......

Other thread they are saying -475.....

$5,000 ML bet? Are you serious? Of course all books will for the Super Bowl.......

sportsbook.com raised limits to $50,000 last year......i am sure bookmaker.com will hit that too
 
Damn HG. Hit that ML now if you can. It's hard plopping down that kind of money but just consider it a 2 week loan. Its going to be extremely hard for NYG to beat the Pats. Not that it cant be done but I'd rather have the guarantee. Nice work :cheers:
 
Hawaiiguy said:
ML will come out closer to game time ......

Other thread they are saying -475.....

$5,000 ML bet? Are you serious? Of course all books will for the Super Bowl.......

sportsbook.com raised limits to $50,000 last year......i am sure bookmaker.com will hit that too
Click to expand...

Ahh! No kidding, I guess I underestimate the powers of the Super Bowl. I'm use to them cutting me off around $1500.

But anyway, yeah! That'll be a fun game to watch with your 1k insured. Congrats. Although the possible tax ramifications give me a headache.
 
spanishshark said:
Damn HG. Hit that ML now if you can. It's hard plopping down that kind of money but just consider it a 2 week loan. Its going to be extremely hard for NYG to beat the Pats. Not that it cant be done but I'd rather have the guarantee. Nice work :cheers:
Click to expand...


I have bookmaker and sportsbook....no ml......knowing those guys, it won't come out until a couple days before.....just gotta wait......
 
probably want to wait until close to game time. Might be able to catch Pats ML near the low -400s.
 
Giants will win, but you should definitely take that Pats moneyline. In the end, if you don't take it, it's like you put 1k on Giants ml cause currently that money is in your pocket (although not yet physically ).
 
Had those same odds but only laid 25 bucks...
This happens to me every year.

2 years ago I had George mason for 50 bucks to win 21,000
2 years ago I had the tigers for 100 to win 8,000
I am bound to hit one sooner or later..

GO GIANTS
 
First and foremost, for a big bet like that you want access to a Matchbook.com account because you'll save a ton.

Secondly, and I think this will help a bit, I noticed the ML in the SD-NE game went strongly in favor of NE throughout the week while the spread was obviously bet down quite a bit, as it appeared people thought NE would certainly win but not cover. However, right before kickoff there was some money coming in on the SD ML and it went down about 10-20 points (which isn't all that much when the ML is that high to begin with). Keep in mind that this was at matchbook, so betting on the ML wasn't a full-fledged commitment for all those bettors, considering any of those bettors could sell their holding thanks to matchbooks live betting.

Anyway, getting the bet in early(considering this particular situation) is probably the right play.

GL either way, hope you get a nice middle.
 
Why hedge so much ??

What were the odds of nygiants making it to win the nfc at that time ?????

should let most of this bet ride even though it is a long shot to win. Not going to say i have never hedged but it just seems like bad business. If you lose the thing you are out a whopping 100 bucks. i read almost all of your threads ... you bet way more than this per game.

Math , EV etc etc clearly dictates letting this bet ride unless the amount won or lost is so significant that it "means a lot " to you. I don't think the $100 loss or the $1000 win falls into that category.

just my opinion HG, and i do not expect the giants to win. Just think you are throwing away value , especially when you are laying a moneyline of minus 470 or better while making your hedge.

$100 to win $6000 is a pretty fun superbowl to watch too.
 
If I was you, I'd get access to a live betting book, and wait for the game to progress. The risk is the Pats run away with it from start to finish, which would kill their ml odds for you (but you will always have the chance to bet no worse than 6000 to make your 100 back, and so lose nothing). But personally, I dont see that kind of game. Pats have 3 SB wins by a combined 9 points, they have a history under this coach of simply doing what they need to do to win. The Giants score first (esp. a TD), you'll easily see a ml number far better than what you do now, and even if they dont score first, if they simply hold off the first drive or 2 of the pats, then even at 0-0 you'll still be seeing a better Pats ml.

And at best, the Giants score a TD off an offensive drive to go up 7-0, then while you're working out your sums on the subsequently posted Pats ml, the Gints return a fumble from the ensuing kickoff to go up 14-0, and suddenly youre saying "fuck hedging".:36_11_6:

live betting:shake:
 
If anyone was wondering........

I have laid $2,200 to win $500 as of Saturday at -440...........

I seriously don't know where the ML is going, and wanted to lock in half now......

My intention is to lay another $2,200 to win $500 before game time.....

This will give me something to cheer on......THE GIANTS

+$900 (-100 price of ticket) if New England Wins.....
+$1,600 (get $100 ticket back) if the Giants win.......
 
Profit locked in. Grats on making money.

Still think you hedged off too much ... but the overwhelming likelihood is you will be happy that you did.
 
vegaskyle said:
Profit locked in. Grats on making money.

Still think you hedged off too much ... but the overwhelming likelihood is you will be happy that you did.
Click to expand...
ty vegas, you are right in your last sentence, in the end run that is what it came down to......

in all likelihood the Pats should win.....I still got something to cheer for with the Giants.......and besides, I can pick a better spot to lose my $900:36_11_6:
 
GL on the ticket HG. That'd be a sweet payout, hope they get it done tomorrow. I'm rootin for em as well!


Let's go G-Men :18_1_104v:


As long as there are no spy cameras inside the stadium, they got a shot!! :prayer
 
good job way to hedge... i learned the hard way with my tigers at 100/1 in 05 and let it ride. always gotta hedge at least some of it
 
good job HG, it's a nice position knowing that you can't lose.
(VERY SMART)
 
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